Group 1 - Centerra Gold (CGAU) is a smaller-sized gold miner expected to produce between 270,000 to 310,000 ounces in 2024, but faced challenges due to no processing at the mine in Türkiye and lower grades [1] - The company had a difficult year in 2024, which impacted its production capabilities [1] Group 2 - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching various companies across different sectors, including commodities and technology [1] - The focus has shifted to a value investing-oriented YouTube channel after three years of blogging, with a particular interest in metals and mining stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Centerra Gold Inc. is set to release its second quarter 2025 operating and financial results on August 6, 2025, followed by a conference call on August 7, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1]. Company Overview - Centerra Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold mining company focused on operating, developing, exploring, and acquiring gold and copper properties in North America, Türkiye, and other global markets [3]. - The company operates two mines: the Mount Milligan Mine in British Columbia, Canada, and the Öksüt Mine in Türkiye [3]. - Centerra also owns the Kemess Project in British Columbia, the Goldfield Project in Nevada, and operates a Molybdenum Business Unit in the United States and Canada [3]. - The company's shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol CG and on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol CGAU [3].

Core Viewpoint - Centerra Gold Inc. is set to release its second quarter 2025 operating and financial results on August 6, 2025, followed by a conference call on August 7, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1]. Company Overview - Centerra Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold mining company focused on operating, developing, exploring, and acquiring gold and copper properties in North America, Türkiye, and other global markets [3]. - The company operates two mines: the Mount Milligan Mine in British Columbia, Canada, and the Öksüt Mine in Türkiye [3]. - Centerra also owns the Kemess Project in British Columbia, the Goldfield Project in Nevada, and operates a Molybdenum Business Unit in the United States and Canada [3]. - The company's shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol CG and on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol CGAU [3].

Core Viewpoint - Centerra Gold Inc. has published its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting its performance in Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) areas, emphasizing responsible mining as a driver of long-term value and growth [1]. Environmental - Total global scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were 137,719 and 34,727 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) respectively [6]. - Emissions per ounce of gold produced at Mount Milligan and Öksüt were 0.28 tCO2e, significantly below the sector's average of 0.66 tCO2e [6]. - The company implemented a climate change strategy focusing on site-level decarbonization initiatives and climate risk scenario analysis [6]. - Öksüt received ISO 50001 energy management system certification and compliance certification from the International Cyanide Management Institute [6]. - Mount Milligan improved mine water recycling to reduce freshwater intake [6]. Social - The total reportable injury frequency rate decreased to 0.71 from 0.76 in the previous year [6]. - Collaboration with Indigenous-owned businesses increased by 31%, reaching 21 businesses from 16 in 2023 [6]. - Indigenous employee representation across British Columbia operations reached 19% [6]. - Local procurement spending rose by 26% from 2023, totaling $134 million in 2024 [6]. - The company surpassed its 2026 gender diversity goal for the second consecutive year, achieving 38% female representation on the Board of Directors and 33% among officers [6]. Governance - Centerra received independent assurance of conformance with the World Gold Council's Responsible Gold Mining Principles [6].

Core Viewpoint - Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) is currently viewed as a more attractive option for value investors compared to Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) based on various valuation metrics [1]. Valuation Metrics - Both CGAU and AEM have a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive earnings estimate revisions and improving earnings outlooks [3]. - CGAU has a forward P/E ratio of 10.20, significantly lower than AEM's forward P/E of 20.51, suggesting CGAU is undervalued [5]. - The PEG ratio for CGAU is 0.32, while AEM's PEG ratio is 1.08, indicating that CGAU has a better growth-to-price ratio [5]. - CGAU's P/B ratio is 0.96, compared to AEM's P/B of 2.87, further supporting the notion that CGAU is a more attractive value investment [6]. - Based on these metrics, CGAU has a Value grade of A, while AEM has a Value grade of C, reinforcing CGAU's position as the superior value option [6].

Core Viewpoint - Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) has seen a 2.8% increase in share price over the past four weeks, closing at $6.88, with a potential upside indicated by Wall Street analysts' price targets suggesting a mean estimate of $8.76, representing a 27.3% upside [1] Price Targets and Analyst Consensus - The average price target consists of 11 estimates ranging from a low of $6.50 to a high of $11, with a standard deviation of $1.19, indicating variability among analysts [2] - The lowest estimate suggests a decline of 5.5% from the current price, while the highest estimate indicates a potential upside of 59.9% [2] - A low standard deviation signifies greater agreement among analysts regarding price movement, which can be a useful starting point for further research [9] Earnings Estimates and Potential Upside - Analysts show strong agreement in revising CGAU's earnings estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [11] - Over the last 30 days, four estimates have increased while one has decreased, leading to a 31.6% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12] - CGAU holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [13]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis compares Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) to determine which stock represents a better value investment opportunity for investors interested in mining stocks [1]. Group 1: Company Performance and Valuation Metrics - Both CGAU and FNV currently hold a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive revisions to their earnings estimates and improving earnings outlooks [3]. - CGAU has a forward P/E ratio of 9.45, significantly lower than FNV's forward P/E of 39.41, suggesting CGAU may be undervalued [5]. - CGAU's PEG ratio is 0.29, while FNV's PEG ratio is 4.09, further indicating CGAU's more favorable valuation in terms of expected earnings growth [5]. - CGAU's P/B ratio stands at 0.82, compared to FNV's P/B of 4.87, reinforcing the notion that CGAU is a more attractive value option [6]. Group 2: Value Grades - CGAU has received a Value grade of A, while FNV has a Value grade of F, highlighting the significant difference in their valuation metrics [6]. - The analysis emphasizes that despite both companies having solid earnings outlooks, CGAU is currently viewed as the superior value option based on various valuation figures [6].

Core Viewpoint - Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on a company's changing earnings picture, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate tracking EPS estimates from sell-side analysts [1][2]. - Changes in future earnings potential, reflected in earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates and the rating upgrade for Centerra Gold indicate an improvement in the company's underlying business, suggesting that investors should respond positively by pushing the stock higher [5][10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions for Centerra Gold - Centerra Gold is expected to earn $0.69 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year change of -2.8% [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centerra Gold has increased by 16.1% [8]. Zacks Rank System Overview - The Zacks Rank stock-rating system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of Centerra Gold to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [9][10].

Financial Performance - Centerra's revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2025, increased by 15% compared to the same period in 2024, driven by higher gold and copper prices[2] - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $299.5 million, a decrease of 2% from $305.8 million in Q1 2024[16] - Net earnings fell to $30.5 million in Q1 2025, down 54% from $66.4 million in Q1 2024[18] - Adjusted net earnings decreased to $26.4 million in Q1 2025, a 16% decline from $31.3 million in Q1 2024[19] - Free cash flow significantly declined to $10.0 million in Q1 2025, down 88% from $81.2 million in Q1 2024[23] - The company reported a net loss of $1.0 million in Q1 2025, an improvement from a net loss of $3.8 million in Q1 2024[169] Production and Operations - The Mount Milligan Mine produced 50,000 ounces of gold and 15 million pounds of copper in Q1 2025, representing a 10% increase in gold production year-over-year[2] - The Öksüt Mine achieved a production of 30,000 ounces of gold in Q1 2025, maintaining consistent output levels compared to Q1 2024[2] - Gold production dropped by 47% to 59,379 ounces in Q1 2025, while gold sold decreased by 41% to 61,132 ounces[16] - Copper production at the Mount Milligan Mine was 11.6 million pounds in Q1 2025, compared to 14.3 million pounds in Q1 2024, primarily due to lower head grades[84] - Gold production in Q1 2025 was 59,379 ounces, down from 111,341 ounces in Q1 2024, with the decrease attributed to lower processing and recovery rates[83] Cost Management - Gold production costs rose to $1,271 per ounce in Q1 2025 from $746 per ounce in Q1 2024, mainly due to lower ounces sold and higher cost allocations[87] - Consolidated all-in sustaining costs on a by-product basis were $1,491 per ounce in Q1 2025, with full year guidance of $1,400 to $1,500 per ounce[53] - The average realized gold price increased by 39% to $2,554 per ounce in Q1 2025, while the average realized copper price rose by 22% to $3.80 per pound[16] - Cost of sales increased to $223.0 million in Q1 2025 from $207.2 million in Q1 2024, driven by higher production costs at the Langeloth Facility[86] Capital Expenditures and Investments - Centerra plans to invest $50 million in exploration activities across its properties in Canada, the USA, and Türkiye in 2025[4] - For the full year 2025, total capital expenditures are planned to be in the range of $105 to $130 million, unchanged from previous guidance[54] - The Mount Milligan Mine's additions to PP&E in Q1 2025 were $23.7 million, with total capital expenditures of $12.3 million[55] - Additions to property, plant, and equipment surged to $32.3 million in Q1 2025, up from $0.4 million in Q1 2024, a 7975% increase[135] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Centerra's total cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, were reported at $150 million, providing a strong liquidity position for future investments[2] - As of March 31, 2025, the Company's total liquidity position was $1.0 billion, including a cash balance of $608.2 million[77] - The company repurchased approximately 2,465,926 common shares under its NCIB program for $14.9 million, contributing to a decrease in cash to $608.2 million from $624.7 million[96] Future Outlook and Guidance - Centerra expects to generate cash flow of approximately $100 million from operations in 2025, with a focus on reducing costs by 5% through operational efficiencies[4] - The company is targeting a production guidance of 200,000 ounces of gold and 60 million pounds of copper for the full year 2025[4] - The company's 2025 gold production guidance is between 270,000 and 310,000 ounces, with Q1 production of 59,379 ounces[41] Exploration and Development Projects - The company is advancing the Kemess Project with a pre-feasibility study expected to be completed by Q4 2025, which may lead to a potential increase in mineral resources[4] - The Kemess Project has an updated resource estimate of 2.7 million ounces of gold and 971 million pounds of copper, with a PEA expected by the end of 2025[26] - The Thompson Creek Mine restart involves an initial capital investment of approximately $397 million, with 14% completion status achieved as of Q1 2025[31][32] Molybdenum Business Unit - Centerra's Molybdenum Business Unit is expected to restart operations at the Thompson Creek Mine, aiming for a production of 2 million pounds of molybdenum in 2025[5] - Molybdenum revenue increased by 52% to $91.6 million in Q1 2025 compared to $60.3 million in Q1 2024[132] - Total revenue for the Molybdenum business unit rose to $94.7 million in Q1 2025, a 49% increase from $63.4 million in Q1 2024[132]

Core Viewpoint - Centerra Gold Inc. reported its first quarter 2025 operating and financial results, highlighting positive free cash flow, unchanged production guidance, and ongoing project advancements, particularly at the Kemess project [2][3]. Operations - Consolidated gold production for Q1 2025 was 59,379 ounces, with 35,880 ounces from Mount Milligan and 23,499 ounces from Öksüt [6][11]. - Copper production in the quarter was 11.6 million pounds [6]. - Mount Milligan produced 35,880 ounces of gold and 11.6 million pounds of copper, lower than planned due to lower gold grades [23]. - Öksüt produced 23,499 ounces of gold, also lower than planned due to lower grades and unfavorable weather conditions [27]. Financial - First quarter 2025 revenue was $299.5 million, a decrease of 2% from $305.8 million in Q1 2024 [9]. - Net earnings for Q1 2025 were $30.5 million, or $0.15 per share, down 54% from $66.4 million in Q1 2024 [11]. - Cash provided by operating activities was $58.6 million, with free cash flow of $10.0 million [11]. - The company maintained a strong cash position of $608 million, ensuring financial flexibility for ongoing projects [3][10]. Growth Initiatives - The company is advancing a Preliminary Economic Assessment on the Kemess project, expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [3]. - The updated mineral resource at Kemess includes 2.7 million ounces of indicated gold resources and 971 million pounds of indicated copper resources [8]. - Exploration guidance for Kemess has been doubled to between $10 million and $12 million for 2025, focusing on infill drilling and high-grade mineralization [3][8]. Capital Expenditures - Total capital expenditures in Q1 2025 were $46.9 million, with $68.1 million in additions to property, plant, and equipment [11]. - Non-sustaining capital expenditures were $25.8 million, primarily related to the restart of Thompson Creek [11][33]. Guidance - The company maintains its 2025 production guidance of 270,000 to 310,000 ounces of gold and 50 to 60 million pounds of copper [15][16]. - Gold production costs for Q1 2025 were $1,271 per ounce, with all-in sustaining costs of $1,491 per ounce [11][16].