Company Overview - Chord Energy Corporation produces and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids primarily from assets in the Williston Basin [9] - The company generates revenue through the exploration, development, and sale of hydrocarbons, leveraging operational expertise in upstream energy production [9] - It serves customers in the energy sector, including refiners, marketers, and utility companies seeking reliable oil and gas supply in North America [10] - Chord Energy's business model centers on efficient resource extraction and disciplined capital allocation to support long-term growth [10] Recent Developments - SIR Capital Management reported a complete exit from its holding in Chord Energy Corporation, selling all 377,585 shares for $36.57 million, which accounted for 3.26% of the fund's assets last quarter [2][3][7] - As of the latest filing, Chord Energy shares were priced at $90.91, down 20% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, which is up about 15% in the same period [4] - The company has a market capitalization of $5.21 billion, with a revenue of $5.16 billion and a net income of $170.64 million for the trailing twelve months [5] Operational Performance - In the most recent quarter, Chord Energy delivered solid production above the midpoint of guidance, generating more than $575 million in adjusted EBITDA [11] - The company returned a meaningful share of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, indicating a liquid balance sheet [11] - Management continues to emphasize capital discipline and efficiency gains, suggesting that the fundamentals do not indicate a distressed asset [11] Market Context - The exit by SIR Capital Management suggests that the opportunity cost of staying invested in Chord Energy has grown too high, particularly in light of ongoing commodity volatility and the stock's struggle to regain momentum [12]

Company Overview - Chord Energy Corporation is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the Williston Basin, emphasizing efficient resource extraction and disciplined capital allocation for long-term growth [6][9] - As of the latest report, the company's market capitalization is $5.21 billion, with a revenue of $5.16 billion and a net income of $170.64 million over the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] Recent Developments - SIR Capital Management has completely exited its position in Chord Energy Corporation, selling all 377,585 shares for a total of $36.57 million, which represented 3.26% of the fund's assets last quarter [2][10] - The stock price of Chord Energy Corporation is currently $90.91, reflecting a 20% decline over the past year, contrasting with the S&P 500's increase of approximately 15% during the same period [3] Operational Performance - In the most recent quarter, Chord Energy delivered solid production above the midpoint of guidance, generating over $575 million in adjusted EBITDA and returning a significant portion of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [7][10] - Despite the stock's poor performance, the company's operational fundamentals remain strong, with management focusing on capital discipline and efficiency gains [10]

Company Overview - Chord Energy Corporation is an independent exploration and production company focused on oil and natural gas development in the Williston Basin [6][8] - The company generates revenue through exploration, development, and extraction of hydrocarbons, aiming to maximize production efficiency and asset returns [8] - Key financial metrics include revenue of $5.16 billion, net income of $170.64 million, and a dividend yield of 5.7% [4] Recent Developments - Kore Advisors LP reduced its stake in Chord Energy by selling 34,000 shares in the third quarter, decreasing the position value by $3.26 million [1][2] - Following this sale, Kore Advisors' holdings in Chord Energy now amount to 14,000 shares valued at $1.39 million, representing 1.59% of the fund's assets under management (AUM) [2][3] - Chord Energy's stock price is currently $90.91, reflecting a 20% decline over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which has increased by about 15% in the same period [3] Operational Performance - In the third quarter, Chord Energy reported oil volumes that exceeded the midpoint of guidance, indicating strong operational performance [7] - The company generated $218.6 million in adjusted free cash flow, returning 69% of that to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, aligning with long-term investor expectations [9] Market Sentiment and Positioning - Despite solid operational execution, Chord Energy's stock has dropped over 50% from its peak last year, highlighting the impact of volatile commodity prices on market sentiment [10] - The reduction in Kore Advisors' position suggests a shift from viewing Chord as a core investment to a more tactical holding, reflecting a cautious approach to risk-reward dynamics in the current market environment [10][11]

Core Insights - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching a wide range of companies, including commodities and technology sectors, which enhances the quality of insights provided [1] Company Research - The analyst has conducted in-depth research on over 1000 companies, covering sectors such as oil, natural gas, gold, copper, and technology companies like Google and Nokia [1] - A focus on metals and mining stocks is highlighted as a preferred area of coverage, although the analyst is also comfortable with consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1] Investment Approach - The transition from a personal blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel indicates a shift in strategy to reach a broader audience while continuing to research various companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) is identified as a promising energy stock with significant upside potential, despite its shares lagging behind the exploration and production sector [1] Company Performance - Chord Energy's third-quarter 2025 earnings surpassed analyst expectations, reporting earnings per share of $2.35 against a forecast of $2.31 [3] - The company's revenue also exceeded projections, reaching $1.31 billion compared to the anticipated $1.09 billion [3] Financial Position - Chord Energy is noted for its strong balance sheet, substantial free cash flow generation, and low breakeven costs, which may be overlooked by investors concerned about future oil prices [2]

Core Insights - Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) is recognized as one of the 14 best up-and-coming dividend stocks to buy [1] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its price target for Chord Energy to $123 from $128 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating, reflecting revised guidance for 2025 and preliminary expectations for 2026 [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Chord Energy reported revenue of $1.31 billion, a decrease of 9.5% year-over-year, but surpassed analysts' estimates by $238.4 million [3] - The adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was approximately $230 million, with 69% returned to shareholders [3] - A base dividend of $1.30 per share was paid, and remaining capital was allocated for share repurchases, resulting in an 11% reduction in diluted shares outstanding since the merger with Enerplus [3] Operational Developments - Chord Energy completed the XTO transaction on October 31, which led to an increase in fourth-quarter production guidance by 4,000 barrels of oil per day and an additional $15 million in capital for 2025 to support higher maintenance production levels for 2026 [4] - The company focuses on high-quality, long-lived assets primarily in the Williston Basin [4]

Core Insights - Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.24, although down from $3.40 in the same quarter last year [1][9] - Total quarterly revenues reached $1,312.1 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $993.8 million, but decreased from $1,450.5 million in the prior year [2][9] Production Overview - CHRD's total production for the third quarter was 280.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoE/D), nearly unchanged from 280.8 MBoE/D a year ago [4][9] - Oil production accounted for 55.4% of total production, amounting to 155.7 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/D), down from 158.8 MBbl/D in the previous year [4] - Natural gas production was 420.1 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/D), slightly down from 421.8 MMcf/D recorded a year ago [4] Pricing and Expenses - Average sales prices for natural gas increased to $0.81 per Mcf from $0.44 a year ago, while oil price realization was $63.59 per barrel, down from $73.51 [5] - Total operating expenses decreased to $1,140.9 million from $1,174.6 million in the prior year, with lease operating costs slightly up to $248.6 million [6] Capital Expenditures and Financials - In the third quarter, Chord Energy spent $333.7 million on exploration and production and other operations [7] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a total debt of $1.5 billion [7] Future Outlook - Chord Energy's production guidance for 2025 is projected between 275.6 MBoE/D and 278.1 MBoE/D, with expectations for the December quarter production ranging from 268.7 MBoE/D to 278.7 MBoE/D [10] - The company anticipates full-year oil production of 153.8-154.8 MBbl/D, with fourth-quarter expectations of 149 MBbl/D to 153 MBbl/D [10]

Revenue and Production - Crude oil, NGL, and natural gas revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased due to the Arrangement with Enerplus, which expanded operations primarily in the Williston Basin[134] - Production volumes averaged 280,857 Boepd (55% oil), including crude oil volumes of 155,698 Bopd in the third quarter of 2025[135] - Crude oil revenues increased by $31.9 million to $910.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to higher realized prices and production volumes sold[138] - NGL revenues decreased by $3.7 million to $24.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, mainly due to lower realized prices[140] - Natural gas revenues decreased by $11.6 million to $31.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to lower realized prices and production volumes sold[141] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, crude oil revenues increased by $145.0 million to $2,745.9 million, with $491.4 million attributed to expanded operations[143] - Natural gas revenues increased by $103.0 million to $159.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with $69.0 million attributed to expanded operations[145] Financial Performance - Net cash provided by operating activities was $559.0 million, and net income was $130.1 million in the third quarter of 2025[135] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,635.7 million, an increase of $104.9 million compared to the same period in 2024[184] - The effective tax rate was 131.3% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, significantly impacted by a goodwill impairment charge[168] Expenses and Costs - E&P and other capital expenditures (excluding capitalized interest) were $333.7 million in the third quarter of 2025[135] - Lease operating expenses ("LOE") were $9.62 per Boe in the third quarter of 2025[135] - Total operating expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $3,606.7 million, an increase from $2,975.4 million in the prior year[147] - Lease operating expenses decreased by $8.4 million to $248.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, due to reduced workover activity[148] - Purchased oil and gas expenses increased by $109.2 million to $340.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, due to higher volumes and prices[149] - Production taxes increased by $10.5 million to $79.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, with a production tax rate of 8.2%, up from 7.3% in the previous quarter[150] - General and administrative expenses decreased by $10.7 million to $21.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to lower corporate and merger-related costs[151] - Lease operating expenses increased by $155.7 million to $738.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, driven by expanded operations and increased workover costs[156] - Gathering, processing, and transportation expenses rose by $26.0 million to $220.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to expanded operations[157] - Purchased oil and gas expenses decreased by $337.7 million to $684.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, attributed to lower crude oil prices and volumes[158] - Production taxes decreased by $21.3 million to $223.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with a production tax rate of 7.4%, down from 8.8% in the previous year[159] - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization expenses increased by $344.7 million to $1,101.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, due to higher production volumes and depletion rates[160] Capital Expenditures and Financing - Issued $750.0 million 6.000% senior unsecured notes due October 1, 2030, in September 2025[135] - Completed the 2025 Williston Basin Acquisition for total cash consideration of $542.2 million, funded by proceeds from the issuance of senior notes and cash on hand[131] - The company incurred capital expenditures of $1,044.8 million for the development of oil and gas properties during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[187] - Total capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were approximately $1,044.8 million, primarily for oil and gas property development[187] - Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $1,075.8 million, with $1,042.9 million allocated to exploration and production (E&P) activities[189] - The company issued the 2030 Senior Notes resulting in net proceeds of $739.6 million, which were used for the Williston Basin Acquisition and general corporate purposes[180] - The company recorded deferred financing costs of $10.4 million in connection with the issuance of the 2030 Senior Notes[180] Shareholder Returns - Paid a base cash dividend of $1.30 per share on September 8, 2025, and declared another dividend of the same amount payable on December 5, 2025[135] - A base cash dividend of $1.30 per share was declared on November 4, 2025, payable on December 5, 2025[190] - The company repurchased 3,388,561 shares of common stock at a weighted average price of $104.61 per share, totaling $354.5 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[193] - The share repurchase program authorized in August 2025 allows for up to $1.0 billion in common stock repurchases, replacing a previous $750 million program[193] - During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 3,388,561 shares at an average price of $104.61 per share, costing a total of $354.5 million[193] - As of September 30, 2025, there was $962.2 million remaining under the $1.0 billion share repurchase program[193] - Future dividend payments will depend on the company's earnings, financial condition, and other relevant considerations[192] Liquidity and Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, the company had $2,597.1 million in liquidity, including $1,967.9 million in unused borrowing capacity under the Credit Facility[169] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a senior secured revolving credit facility with a borrowing base of $2.75 billion and unused borrowing capacity of $1,967.9 million[178] - The company maintained compliance with the financial covenants under the Credit Facility as of September 30, 2025[178] - The company has commodity derivative contracts covering 3,128 MBbls of crude oil and 12,420,000 MMBtu of natural gas production for 2025[176] - The company recorded merger-related costs of $8.1 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily related to severance and legal services[174] - The company had estimated future commitments under contracts of $464.0 million as of September 30, 2025[177] Accounting and Compliance - There have been no material changes in critical accounting policies and estimates from the previous annual report[196]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Chord Energy reported adjusted free cash flow of approximately $230 million for Q3 2025, returning 69% of this to shareholders [5][9] - Free cash flow per share has grown over 20% since February, and pro forma free cash flow per share is up more than 35% since the Enerplus transaction [9][10] - The company has reduced diluted shares outstanding by approximately 11% since the combination with Enerplus [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Chord has raised oil volume guidance for the second time in 2025, expecting four-mile wells to constitute up to 40% of the operated program in 2026 [6][7] - The company has drilled 11 alternate-shaped wells year to date, with costs trending below initial estimates [7][31] - Chord has achieved $120 million in improvement in free cash flow generation from controllable items, including higher production and lower operating expenses [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The XTO transaction closed on October 31, adding 4,000 barrels of oil per day to fourth quarter production [10][40] - The company expects to maintain oil volumes of approximately 157,000-161,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a total CapEx of roughly $1.4 billion [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Chord aims to enhance capital efficiency and has made significant progress in its four-mile well program, which is expected to improve production and reduce costs [6][10] - The company is focused on maintaining a low-cost inventory depth through technology adoption and opportunistic M&A [11][14] - Chord's strategy includes a commitment to sustainability and continuous improvement in operations [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate commodity volatility and maintain operational flexibility [12] - The company is optimistic about the integration of high-quality assets from the XTO acquisition, which aligns with its long-term strategic objectives [10][11] - Management highlighted the importance of improving production uptime and artificial lift optimization as key areas for future growth [32][100] Other Important Information - Chord has published its 2024 sustainability report, reflecting its commitment to responsible energy production [12][13] - The company has identified expected savings of $30 million-$50 million annually from marketing cost structure improvements [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expected benefits from the four-mile wells in terms of capital efficiency? - Management anticipates seeing significant benefits from four-mile wells towards the end of 2026 and into 2027, particularly in terms of lower decline rates [17][18] Question: How will the marketing and midstream agreements impact natural gas and NGL differentials? - Management noted that approximately $20 million was impacted in 2025, with expectations of $40 million in benefits spread across gas and NGL in the following year [20][21] Question: Can you provide insights on the cost and execution differences between alternate-shaped wells and traditional wells? - Management indicated that alternate-shaped wells are only slightly more expensive than traditional wells, with strong execution and cost savings observed [30][31] Question: What is the company's approach to dividend growth and capital allocation? - Management emphasized a commitment to a competitive base dividend while considering share repurchases and potential variable dividends based on capital allocation decisions [89][90]

Business Overview - Chord Energy is a premier Williston Basin operator focused on enhancing free cash flow generation[1,9] - The company has a large acreage position in the Williston Basin, with over 1.3 million net acres and approximately 278 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoepd) production, with oil accounting for approximately 56% of production[18] - Chord Energy has a diversified commodity mix with 56% oil, 26% gas, and 18% NGL[15] Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - Chord Energy has returned over $5 billion to shareholders since 2021[20,25] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with approximately 0.6x leverage[20,26,71] - Chord Energy's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.365 billion[131] - The company's free cash flow for 2025 is estimated to be approximately $840 million[131] Operational Efficiency and Improvements - Chord Energy is focused on continuous improvement, driving a projected 20% free cash flow growth in FY25 from controllable items[35] - The company is implementing a 4-mile lateral program, which is expected to improve returns with 90%-100% EUR increase and $8-$12 per barrel lower breakeven compared to 2-mile analogs[52] - Chord Energy is targeting over 80% long-lateral inventory across its acreage[33,116] Marketing and Infrastructure - The company anticipates $30-$50 million in annual free cash flow savings from marketing optimization starting in 2026[43,49] - Chord Energy is involved in gas takeaway projects, including LNG Canada and TC Energy Bison Xpress, which are expected to improve pricing[45] Strategic Acquisitions and Divestitures - Chord Energy closed the XTO asset acquisition in October 2025 for $550 million, adding 48,000 net acres in the Williston core[25,75,76] - Since the Enerplus merger close in May 2024, Chord Energy has reduced its fully diluted shares outstanding by approximately 11%[62,64]