Core Insights - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching a wide range of companies, including commodities and technology sectors, which enhances the quality of insights provided [1] Company Research - The analyst has conducted in-depth research on over 1000 companies, covering sectors such as oil, natural gas, gold, copper, and technology companies like Google and Nokia [1] - A focus on metals and mining stocks is highlighted as a preferred area of coverage, although the analyst is also comfortable with consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1] Investment Approach - The transition from a personal blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel indicates a shift in strategy to reach a broader audience while continuing to research various companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) is identified as a promising energy stock with significant upside potential, despite its shares lagging behind the exploration and production sector [1] Company Performance - Chord Energy's third-quarter 2025 earnings surpassed analyst expectations, reporting earnings per share of $2.35 against a forecast of $2.31 [3] - The company's revenue also exceeded projections, reaching $1.31 billion compared to the anticipated $1.09 billion [3] Financial Position - Chord Energy is noted for its strong balance sheet, substantial free cash flow generation, and low breakeven costs, which may be overlooked by investors concerned about future oil prices [2]

Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) is included among the 14 Best Up and Coming Dividend Stocks to Buy. Morgan Stanley Keeps Chord Energy (CHRD) Neutral Following Q3 Results Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay On November 20,⁠ Morga‌n Stanle⁠y analyst Devin McDe‌rmot⁠t lowered‍ the pri‍ce target on Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) to $123 from $12‌8‌ while maintaining​ an Equal Weight rating, according to a report by The Fly. The update reflects revised 2025 guidance and pr​elim‌inary 2026 ex ...

Core Insights - Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.24, although down from $3.40 in the same quarter last year [1][9] - Total quarterly revenues reached $1,312.1 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $993.8 million, but decreased from $1,450.5 million in the prior year [2][9] Production Overview - CHRD's total production for the third quarter was 280.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoE/D), nearly unchanged from 280.8 MBoE/D a year ago [4][9] - Oil production accounted for 55.4% of total production, amounting to 155.7 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/D), down from 158.8 MBbl/D in the previous year [4] - Natural gas production was 420.1 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/D), slightly down from 421.8 MMcf/D recorded a year ago [4] Pricing and Expenses - Average sales prices for natural gas increased to $0.81 per Mcf from $0.44 a year ago, while oil price realization was $63.59 per barrel, down from $73.51 [5] - Total operating expenses decreased to $1,140.9 million from $1,174.6 million in the prior year, with lease operating costs slightly up to $248.6 million [6] Capital Expenditures and Financials - In the third quarter, Chord Energy spent $333.7 million on exploration and production and other operations [7] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a total debt of $1.5 billion [7] Future Outlook - Chord Energy's production guidance for 2025 is projected between 275.6 MBoE/D and 278.1 MBoE/D, with expectations for the December quarter production ranging from 268.7 MBoE/D to 278.7 MBoE/D [10] - The company anticipates full-year oil production of 153.8-154.8 MBbl/D, with fourth-quarter expectations of 149 MBbl/D to 153 MBbl/D [10]

Revenue and Production - Crude oil, NGL, and natural gas revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased due to the Arrangement with Enerplus, which expanded operations primarily in the Williston Basin[134] - Production volumes averaged 280,857 Boepd (55% oil), including crude oil volumes of 155,698 Bopd in the third quarter of 2025[135] - Crude oil revenues increased by $31.9 million to $910.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to higher realized prices and production volumes sold[138] - NGL revenues decreased by $3.7 million to $24.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, mainly due to lower realized prices[140] - Natural gas revenues decreased by $11.6 million to $31.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to lower realized prices and production volumes sold[141] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, crude oil revenues increased by $145.0 million to $2,745.9 million, with $491.4 million attributed to expanded operations[143] - Natural gas revenues increased by $103.0 million to $159.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with $69.0 million attributed to expanded operations[145] Financial Performance - Net cash provided by operating activities was $559.0 million, and net income was $130.1 million in the third quarter of 2025[135] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,635.7 million, an increase of $104.9 million compared to the same period in 2024[184] - The effective tax rate was 131.3% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, significantly impacted by a goodwill impairment charge[168] Expenses and Costs - E&P and other capital expenditures (excluding capitalized interest) were $333.7 million in the third quarter of 2025[135] - Lease operating expenses ("LOE") were $9.62 per Boe in the third quarter of 2025[135] - Total operating expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $3,606.7 million, an increase from $2,975.4 million in the prior year[147] - Lease operating expenses decreased by $8.4 million to $248.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, due to reduced workover activity[148] - Purchased oil and gas expenses increased by $109.2 million to $340.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, due to higher volumes and prices[149] - Production taxes increased by $10.5 million to $79.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, with a production tax rate of 8.2%, up from 7.3% in the previous quarter[150] - General and administrative expenses decreased by $10.7 million to $21.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to lower corporate and merger-related costs[151] - Lease operating expenses increased by $155.7 million to $738.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, driven by expanded operations and increased workover costs[156] - Gathering, processing, and transportation expenses rose by $26.0 million to $220.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to expanded operations[157] - Purchased oil and gas expenses decreased by $337.7 million to $684.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, attributed to lower crude oil prices and volumes[158] - Production taxes decreased by $21.3 million to $223.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with a production tax rate of 7.4%, down from 8.8% in the previous year[159] - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization expenses increased by $344.7 million to $1,101.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, due to higher production volumes and depletion rates[160] Capital Expenditures and Financing - Issued $750.0 million 6.000% senior unsecured notes due October 1, 2030, in September 2025[135] - Completed the 2025 Williston Basin Acquisition for total cash consideration of $542.2 million, funded by proceeds from the issuance of senior notes and cash on hand[131] - The company incurred capital expenditures of $1,044.8 million for the development of oil and gas properties during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[187] - Total capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were approximately $1,044.8 million, primarily for oil and gas property development[187] - Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $1,075.8 million, with $1,042.9 million allocated to exploration and production (E&P) activities[189] - The company issued the 2030 Senior Notes resulting in net proceeds of $739.6 million, which were used for the Williston Basin Acquisition and general corporate purposes[180] - The company recorded deferred financing costs of $10.4 million in connection with the issuance of the 2030 Senior Notes[180] Shareholder Returns - Paid a base cash dividend of $1.30 per share on September 8, 2025, and declared another dividend of the same amount payable on December 5, 2025[135] - A base cash dividend of $1.30 per share was declared on November 4, 2025, payable on December 5, 2025[190] - The company repurchased 3,388,561 shares of common stock at a weighted average price of $104.61 per share, totaling $354.5 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[193] - The share repurchase program authorized in August 2025 allows for up to $1.0 billion in common stock repurchases, replacing a previous $750 million program[193] - During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 3,388,561 shares at an average price of $104.61 per share, costing a total of $354.5 million[193] - As of September 30, 2025, there was $962.2 million remaining under the $1.0 billion share repurchase program[193] - Future dividend payments will depend on the company's earnings, financial condition, and other relevant considerations[192] Liquidity and Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, the company had $2,597.1 million in liquidity, including $1,967.9 million in unused borrowing capacity under the Credit Facility[169] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a senior secured revolving credit facility with a borrowing base of $2.75 billion and unused borrowing capacity of $1,967.9 million[178] - The company maintained compliance with the financial covenants under the Credit Facility as of September 30, 2025[178] - The company has commodity derivative contracts covering 3,128 MBbls of crude oil and 12,420,000 MMBtu of natural gas production for 2025[176] - The company recorded merger-related costs of $8.1 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily related to severance and legal services[174] - The company had estimated future commitments under contracts of $464.0 million as of September 30, 2025[177] Accounting and Compliance - There have been no material changes in critical accounting policies and estimates from the previous annual report[196]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Chord Energy reported adjusted free cash flow of approximately $230 million for Q3 2025, returning 69% of this to shareholders [5][9] - Free cash flow per share has grown over 20% since February, and pro forma free cash flow per share is up more than 35% since the Enerplus transaction [9][10] - The company has reduced diluted shares outstanding by approximately 11% since the combination with Enerplus [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Chord has raised oil volume guidance for the second time in 2025, expecting four-mile wells to constitute up to 40% of the operated program in 2026 [6][7] - The company has drilled 11 alternate-shaped wells year to date, with costs trending below initial estimates [7][31] - Chord has achieved $120 million in improvement in free cash flow generation from controllable items, including higher production and lower operating expenses [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The XTO transaction closed on October 31, adding 4,000 barrels of oil per day to fourth quarter production [10][40] - The company expects to maintain oil volumes of approximately 157,000-161,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a total CapEx of roughly $1.4 billion [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Chord aims to enhance capital efficiency and has made significant progress in its four-mile well program, which is expected to improve production and reduce costs [6][10] - The company is focused on maintaining a low-cost inventory depth through technology adoption and opportunistic M&A [11][14] - Chord's strategy includes a commitment to sustainability and continuous improvement in operations [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate commodity volatility and maintain operational flexibility [12] - The company is optimistic about the integration of high-quality assets from the XTO acquisition, which aligns with its long-term strategic objectives [10][11] - Management highlighted the importance of improving production uptime and artificial lift optimization as key areas for future growth [32][100] Other Important Information - Chord has published its 2024 sustainability report, reflecting its commitment to responsible energy production [12][13] - The company has identified expected savings of $30 million-$50 million annually from marketing cost structure improvements [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expected benefits from the four-mile wells in terms of capital efficiency? - Management anticipates seeing significant benefits from four-mile wells towards the end of 2026 and into 2027, particularly in terms of lower decline rates [17][18] Question: How will the marketing and midstream agreements impact natural gas and NGL differentials? - Management noted that approximately $20 million was impacted in 2025, with expectations of $40 million in benefits spread across gas and NGL in the following year [20][21] Question: Can you provide insights on the cost and execution differences between alternate-shaped wells and traditional wells? - Management indicated that alternate-shaped wells are only slightly more expensive than traditional wells, with strong execution and cost savings observed [30][31] Question: What is the company's approach to dividend growth and capital allocation? - Management emphasized a commitment to a competitive base dividend while considering share repurchases and potential variable dividends based on capital allocation decisions [89][90]

Business Overview - Chord Energy is a premier Williston Basin operator focused on enhancing free cash flow generation[1,9] - The company has a large acreage position in the Williston Basin, with over 1.3 million net acres and approximately 278 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoepd) production, with oil accounting for approximately 56% of production[18] - Chord Energy has a diversified commodity mix with 56% oil, 26% gas, and 18% NGL[15] Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - Chord Energy has returned over $5 billion to shareholders since 2021[20,25] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with approximately 0.6x leverage[20,26,71] - Chord Energy's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.365 billion[131] - The company's free cash flow for 2025 is estimated to be approximately $840 million[131] Operational Efficiency and Improvements - Chord Energy is focused on continuous improvement, driving a projected 20% free cash flow growth in FY25 from controllable items[35] - The company is implementing a 4-mile lateral program, which is expected to improve returns with 90%-100% EUR increase and $8-$12 per barrel lower breakeven compared to 2-mile analogs[52] - Chord Energy is targeting over 80% long-lateral inventory across its acreage[33,116] Marketing and Infrastructure - The company anticipates $30-$50 million in annual free cash flow savings from marketing optimization starting in 2026[43,49] - Chord Energy is involved in gas takeaway projects, including LNG Canada and TC Energy Bison Xpress, which are expected to improve pricing[45] Strategic Acquisitions and Divestitures - Chord Energy closed the XTO asset acquisition in October 2025 for $550 million, adding 48,000 net acres in the Williston core[25,75,76] - Since the Enerplus merger close in May 2024, Chord Energy has reduced its fully diluted shares outstanding by approximately 11%[62,64]

分组1 - Chord Energy Corporation reported quarterly earnings of $2.35 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.24 per share, but down from $3.4 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +4.91% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.31 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 32.03%, although this is a decrease from year-ago revenues of $1.45 billion [2] - Chord Energy has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters and topped consensus revenue estimates two times in the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed, losing about 22.2% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 16.5% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.51 on revenues of $936.96 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $9.51 on revenues of $3.98 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is currently in the bottom 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for the sector [8]

Production and Guidance - Chord Energy reported Q3 2025 oil production of 155.7 MBopd, exceeding the guidance range of 153.5 – 157.5 MBopd[7] - The company raised its FY25 oil volume guidance to 153.3 MBopd, excluding the impact of the recent XTO acquisition, which is expected to contribute approximately 4.0 MBopd in Q4 2025[18] - The company plans to TIL 115 – 125 gross operated wells in FY25, with 23 – 33 gross operated TILs planned for Q4 2025[17] Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $966.8 million, a decrease of 13.7% compared to $1,121.0 million in Q3 2024[22] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $577.8 million, down from $674.5 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a decline of 14.3%[22] - Net cash provided by operating activities decreased to $559.0 million in Q3 2025 from $663.2 million in Q3 2024, a decline of 15.7%[22] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $170,790,000, down from $272,893,000 in Q3 2024, reflecting a decline of 37.5%[39] - Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $130,111 thousand, compared to $225,316 thousand in 2024, indicating a decline[59] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Chord returned 69% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders through a base dividend of $1.30 per share and $83.0 million in share repurchases[6] - Adjusted free cash flow for Q3 2025 was $218.6 million, compared to $312.5 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a decline of 30%[22] - The company executed marketing agreements expected to deliver annualized free cash flow savings of $30 million to $50 million[11] Capital Expenditures and Debt - Chord's capital expenditures for FY25 are maintained at $1.35 billion, with an additional $15 million allocated to support XTO volumes in 2026[18] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) for Q3 2025 totaled $336.3 million, a decrease from $374.4 million in Q1 2025 and $365.0 million in Q2 2025[24] - As of September 30, 2025, total debt stood at $1,500.0 million, with cash and cash equivalents of $142.0 million, resulting in total liquidity of $2,109.9 million[26] - Long-term debt increased significantly to $1,478,827,000 as of September 30, 2025, from $842,600,000 at the end of 2024[39] Asset Performance and Expenses - Chord's lease operating expenses (LOE) for Q3 2025 were reported at $9.62 per Boe, towards the high end of guidance due to curtailment of Marcellus volumes[6] - The company reported a depreciation, depletion, and amortization expense of $1,101,725,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, up from $757,036,000 in 2024[41] - General and administrative expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $21,861 thousand, compared to $52,115 thousand in 2024, reflecting a significant reduction[50] Earnings and Share Metrics - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $2.26, compared to a loss of $6.71 in Q2 2025 and $3.63 in Q3 2024[22] - Diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 decreased to $2.28 from $3.60 in Q3 2024, representing a decline of 36.8%[67] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $8.38, down from $12.93 in the same period of 2024, a decrease of 35.0%[67] Market and Impairment Charges - The company reported a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $539.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, due to a decline in market capitalization[58] - The company incurred merger costs of $77 thousand for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $17,503 thousand in 2024[65] Other Financial Metrics - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $629,208,000 as of September 30, 2025, from $36,950,000 at the end of 2024[39] - Total current assets rose to $2,064,152,000 as of September 30, 2025, compared to $1,579,118,000 at the end of 2024, marking an increase of 30.7%[39] - The total liabilities increased to $5,023,373,000 as of September 30, 2025, compared to $4,329,745,000 at the end of 2024[39]

Core Insights - Chord Energy Corporation reported solid operational and financial results for Q3 2025, with oil volumes exceeding guidance and a raised FY25 oil volume forecast [4][10][12] Operational Highlights - Q3 2025 oil volumes reached 155.7 MBopd, above the guidance range of 153.5 to 157.5 MBopd [5] - NGL volumes were 55.1 MBblpd, exceeding the guidance of 50.5 to 54.5 MBblpd [5] - Natural gas volumes were 420.1 MMcfpd, slightly below the guidance of 430.0 to 442.0 MMcfpd [5] - Total production was 280.9 MBoepd, above the guidance of 275.7 to 285.7 MBoepd [5] - The company successfully executed three additional 4-mile laterals, enhancing operational efficiency and production performance [15] Financial Performance - Net cash from operations for Q3 2025 was $559.0 million, with net income of $130.1 million, translating to $2.26 per diluted share [10][17] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $577.8 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $218.6 million [10][17] - The company declared a base dividend of $1.30 per share, payable on December 5, 2025, and repurchased 788,444 shares for a total of $83.0 million [7][10] Capital Expenditures and Guidance - Total capital expenditures for Q3 2025 were $333.7 million, below the guidance range of $315 to $345 million [5][10] - The company raised its FY25 oil volume guidance to 153.8 to 154.8 MBopd, reflecting strong operational performance [12][13] - Chord expects to generate approximately $2.4 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $840 million in adjusted free cash flow at the midpoint of guidance for Q4 2025 [12] Marketing and Cost Optimization - Chord executed marketing agreements expected to deliver $30 million to $50 million in annualized free cash flow savings [8][9] - The company is focused on optimizing its marketing and midstream cost structure to enhance free cash flow generation [9] Acquisition Update - The acquisition of Williston Basin assets from XTO Energy was completed on October 31, 2025, for a total cash consideration of $542.2 million [10][12]