Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation October 29, 2025 2024 INVESTOR DAY Safe Harbor Statement Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters set forth in this presentation are forward-looking statements that represent our expectations, beliefs, intentions or strategies concerning future events. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our historical experience or our present expectations, including ...

The financial performance of C.H. Robinson (NASDAQ: CHRW) continued to rip higher in the third quarter, with various levels of profitability and performance improved even as there was no sign of a market turnaround as measured by some of the company’s data. Wall Street, which already has made C.H. Robinson an investment darling–up about 30% in just the last three months alone, and about 20% in the last year–sent the stock soaring in the first hour after the earnings release. At approximately 4:30 pm EDT, ...

Group 1 - C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ: CHRW) stock has increased by 25.7% since the last report, slightly underperforming the S&P 500's 27.7% gain [1] - The analysis is provided by an expert with a background in aerospace engineering, focusing on investment opportunities in the aerospace, defense, and airline industries [1] - The investing group offers access to data analytics monitors, enhancing the investment research process [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results, highlighting the importance of careful investment consideration [2] - It clarifies that no specific investment recommendations are provided, and opinions expressed may not reflect the views of the entire platform [2] - The analysts contributing to the platform include both professional and individual investors, some of whom may not be licensed or certified [2]

Core Insights - C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, with earnings estimated at $1.29 per share, reflecting a 0.77% downward revision over the past 60 days, while revenues are projected at $4.29 billion, indicating a 7.6% decrease from the same quarter in 2024 [1][10] Earnings Performance - C.H. Robinson has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 11.83% [2] - The company's second-quarter 2025 results showed mixed performance, with earnings of $1.29 per share exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17, while total revenues of $4.13 billion fell short of the estimate of $4.22 billion, marking a 7.7% year-over-year decline [7][8] Revenue Estimates - North American Surface Transportation revenue for Q3 is estimated at $2.96 billion, reflecting a 0.8% increase year-over-year [4] - Global Forwarding's Q3 revenue is projected at $799.6 million, indicating a significant 29.9% decrease from the previous year, primarily due to lower pricing in ocean services [4] - Revenues from All Other and Corporate segments are estimated at $460.6 million, representing a 19% decline year-over-year, attributed to lower transaction volumes and the divestiture of the Europe Surface Transportation business [5] Influencing Factors - The anticipated performance for CHRW in Q3 is expected to be significantly affected by the divestiture of its Europe Surface Transportation business, reduced volumes in North America truckload services, and lower pricing in ocean services [3]

Core Insights - FreightWaves announced the winners of the 2026 FreightTech 25 awards, recognizing innovative companies in transportation and logistics for the eighth consecutive year [1] Group 1: Award Process - Nominations for the FreightTech awards were opened earlier in the year, leading to a shortlist of 100 companies, the FreightTech 100, which was evaluated by approximately 80 industry judges [2] - Judges created ranked lists, and a points system was used to determine the FreightTech 25, with first-place votes earning 25 points and descending to 1 point for the 25th place [3] Group 2: Notable Winners - Highway secured the top position for its focus on solving carrier identity, marking its second consecutive win in the FreightTech 25 [4] - DAT Freight and Analytics, after acquiring Convoy, Trucker Tools, and Outgo, achieved the 10 spot, while C.H. Robinson, through the deployment of agentic AI, made its first appearance at 13 [4] - Repowr, under new CEO Chris Hines, debuted at 12, and Transflo made its first appearance after launching an AI workflow that saves customers millions [5] Group 3: Acquisitions and Rankings - Triumph's acquisitions of Greenscreens and ISO contributed to its 4 finish, highlighting the impact of strategic acquisitions on rankings [6] - The list included eight tech-enabled transportation providers, such as Amazon Freight (6) and C.H. Robinson (13), as well as three autonomous truck companies, including Aurora Driverless Trucks (2) [7]

Core Insights - C.H. Robinson has introduced the Agentic Supply Chain, which allows companies across various industries to deploy AI solutions instantly [1] Group 1 - The Agentic Supply Chain is designed to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making processes for businesses [1] - This innovation aims to streamline supply chain management by integrating AI technologies [1] - Companies can leverage this system to improve responsiveness and adaptability in their supply chains [1]

Core Insights - C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) is experiencing positive impacts from cost-cutting measures and shareholder-friendly initiatives, although it faces challenges from soft demand and weak liquidity [1] Group 1: Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - C.H. Robinson's operating expenses decreased by 9.3% year over year to $7.8 billion in the first half of 2025, driven by lower personnel costs and productivity enhancements [2] - The divestiture of the European Surface Transportation business and the absence of prior-year restructuring charges contributed to the company's cost savings [2] - The company's focus on operational efficiency and sustainable profit growth is evident through these proactive measures [2] Group 2: Shareholder Returns - In 2022, C.H. Robinson paid $285.32 million in cash dividends and repurchased $1.459 billion in shares, continuing its shareholder-focused approach in 2023 with $63.88 million in share buybacks and $291.56 million in dividends [3] - In 2024, the company distributed $294.77 million in cash dividends, maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns despite not repurchasing shares [3] - Consistent dividends and share repurchases enhance investor confidence and reflect financial discipline, contributing to long-term profitability [4] Group 3: Market Challenges - C.H. Robinson is facing significant challenges from weak freight demand, which is impacting its top-line performance [8] - Lower pricing in truckload services due to an oversupply of capacity relative to demand has intensified pricing competition, reducing margins and limiting revenue growth opportunities [8] - The company's liquidity position is concerning, with cash and cash equivalents of $155.99 million compared to long-term debt of $922.31 million, indicating limited financial flexibility [10] Group 4: Investment in Technology - Ongoing investments in technology are aimed at long-term efficiency and competitiveness, with capital expenditures of $74.3 million in 2024 and expected investments of $65 million to $75 million in 2025 [11] - While these investments are essential for digital transformation, they may pressure near-term earnings until the benefits of automation and enhanced systems materialize [11]

Core Insights - C.H. Robinson has launched its Agentic Supply Chain, integrating advanced artificial intelligence into logistics operations, empowering approximately 30 AI agents with greater responsibilities [1][2] - The new AI agents differ from traditional robotic process automation by being context-aware and capable of continuous self-optimization, enhancing global supply chain efficiency [2] AI Integration and Functionality - The Agentic Supply Chain represents a significant advancement from previous AI initiatives, focusing on automating and optimizing logistics processes [2][3] - C.H. Robinson's Lean AI agents have previously improved operations like pricing and shipment tracking, with the most advanced agent handling over 1.5 million price quotes [3][4] - The Navisphere transportation management system now integrates various AI agents, each with specialized roles, such as managing order bookings and optimizing shipment decisions [5] Operational Improvements - An orders agent collects necessary freight information for booking and optimizes decisions between less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload options, enhancing cost savings and load efficiency [6] - Another AI agent ensures accurate freight classification under the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) system, automating a traditionally complex process and significantly reducing errors and processing time [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Global Logistics Core Insights and Arguments - **Deceleration in Demand**: Signs of deceleration in ocean and air freight demand are emerging as ocean volume growth slowed to +3% globally in August, with a significant decline of -12% in Transpacific Eastbound volumes [1][3]. Air freight volumes also showed a modest deceleration in September, likely due to the expiration of the de minimis exemption [5][23]. - **Pressure on Ocean Rates**: Ocean freight rates are at their lowest levels since 2023, with the SCFI down over 50% year-to-date [3][20]. Key indicators such as the SCFI and WCI have seen declines of 54% and 58% respectively [20]. - **Orderbook Expansion**: The container shipping orderbook grew by +6% in Q3, with new orders equivalent to 3.4% of the in-service fleet, indicating continued investment despite oversupply risks [4][21]. - **Airfreight Performance**: Airfreight demand grew by 4% in August, but the growth rate moderated in September, with revenues below last year's levels [5][23]. The expiration of the US de minimis exemption is expected to impact future demand [23]. - **Surface Freight Outlook**: U.S. surface rates contracted in June and are expected to remain flat or decline in the second half of the year due to a softer freight outlook [6][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Trade Volumes**: Global trade volumes increased by 4.9% YoY in July, driven by a 6% rise in emerging market exports, while U.S. and European exports remained largely unchanged [2][18]. - **PMI Indicators**: September PMIs showed an increase in China (+0.7pt to 51.2) and the U.S. (+0.4pt to 49.1), while Europe saw a decrease for the first time this year (-0.9pt to 49.8) [2][18]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the logistics sector remains weak, with companies expressing pessimism regarding international ocean demand and potential challenges in achieving a meaningful peak season [3][19]. Company Ratings and Valuations Key Company Ratings - **DSV**: Rated Outperform with a target price of DKK 1,700. Expected to become the largest freight forwarder post-acquisition of DB Schenker [9]. - **DHL**: Rated Outperform with a target price of €42.00. Strongly levered to e-commerce and world trade, with a solid long-term holding outlook [10]. - **Kuehne+Nagel**: Rated Market-Perform with a target price of CHF 165. Underperformance in volume growth noted, with execution issues impacting investor sentiment [11]. - **AP Moller - Maersk**: Rated Underperform with a target price of DKK 10,600. Facing challenges in container shipping with declining spot rates and a high orderbook [12]. Valuation Comparisons - **Valuation Metrics**: DSV shows a strong growth trajectory with an expected EPS of DKK 100+ by 2028, while Maersk's strategy has been criticized for failing to deliver promised synergies [9][12]. - **Market Cap and Share Buybacks**: DSV is projected to repurchase DKK 24 billion of shares annually, compared to its current market cap of DKK 310,654 million [9]. Conclusion The global logistics industry is experiencing a notable deceleration in demand across both ocean and air freight sectors, with significant pressure on rates and a growing orderbook despite oversupply risks. Companies like DSV and DHL are positioned favorably, while others like Maersk face challenges. The overall sentiment in the logistics sector remains cautious as companies navigate a complex market landscape.

Core Insights - C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) is set to announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings for 2025 on October 29, with a market cap of $14.8 billion [1] Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate CHRW to report a profit of $1.30 per share, reflecting a 1.6% increase from $1.28 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For the full fiscal year, EPS is expected to be $4.93, a 9.3% increase from $4.51 in fiscal 2024, and projected to rise to $5.50 in fiscal 2026, marking an 11.6% year-over-year growth [3] Stock Performance - CHRW stock has increased by 12.9% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's 14.4% gains but outperforming the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund's 9.4% gains during the same period [4] - Following the Q2 results announcement on July 30, CHRW shares surged by 18.1%, despite a 7.7% year-over-year revenue decline to $4.1 billion, which missed estimates by 1.9% [5] Analyst Ratings - The consensus opinion on CHRW stock is moderately bullish, with 13 out of 26 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy," one suggesting a "Moderate Buy," 11 giving a "Hold," and one advising a "Strong Sell" [6] - The average analyst price target for CHRW is $131.04, indicating a potential upside of 5.3% from current levels [6]