Economic Overview - The inflation rate as of March is 3.5%, leading to concerns about steel stocks due to their cyclical nature and heavy debt loads [1] - Anticipation of at least three rate decreases in 2024 created a favorable market environment in the first quarter, but recent inflation data has shifted sentiment [1] ArcelorMittal (MT) - ArcelorMittal has a significant global presence but carries a heavy debt load, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and high loan rates [2] - The company incurred $715 million in interest charges recently, up from $357 million in December 2021, while U.S. metal sheet prices have fallen to approximately $800/ton [2] - Despite a 153% profit beat in its latest quarterly results and expansion into India's steel market, the heavy debt and recent stock surge suggest it is a stock to sell [3] United States Steel Corporation (X) - U.S. Steel has seen its long-term debt increase from $2.7 billion to $3.9 billion since December 2017, making it more susceptible to market declines [5] - The expected revenue growth rate for U.S. Steel is -5.5% over the next 3 to 5 years, underperforming compared to 82.5% of its peers [5] - High interest rates are expected to limit EPS growth, and older steel mills face challenges in competing with newer facilities [5] Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) - Cleveland-Cliffs attempted to acquire U.S. Steel for approximately $9 billion, but market skepticism about the merger's success led to volatility in its stock price [7] - The company reported a revenue decline from $23.0 billion to $22.0 billion year-over-year but managed to reduce net debt and achieve significant free cash flow [8] - Despite operational successes, Cleveland-Cliffs has increased its debt to around $3 billion, raising concerns about financial strain in a worsening economy [8]

Core Insights - Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.24 per share, a significant increase of 318.2% year-over-year, with revenues projected at $5.31 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the previous year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 10.8% over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [1] Revenue Estimates - Analysts project 'Revenues- Other Businesses' to reach $141.41 million, a decrease of 16.3% from the prior-year quarter [2] - 'Revenues- Steelmaking- Hot-rolled steel' is estimated at $1.24 billion, showing an increase of 11% year-over-year [2] - 'Revenues- Steelmaking- Cold-rolled steel' is expected to be $660.79 million, reflecting a growth of 3.4% from the previous year [2] - 'Revenues- Steelmaking- Coated steel' is forecasted to be $1.52 billion, indicating a decline of 6.2% year-over-year [3] Volume Estimates - 'Volumes - Steelmaking - Hot-rolled steel' is expected to reach 1,481.31 tons, slightly down from 1,490 tons reported in the same quarter last year [3] - 'Volumes - Steelmaking - Cold-rolled steel' is projected at 599.63 tons, compared to 597 tons in the previous year [3] - 'Volumes - Steelmaking - Coated steel' is estimated at 1,159.00 tons, down from 1,168 tons year-over-year [3] - 'Volumes - Steelmaking - Slab and other steel products' is expected to be 458.28 tons, consistent with the previous year's figure [4] - 'Volumes - Steelmaking - Plate' is forecasted to reach 213.11 tons, an increase from 198 tons year-over-year [4] - 'External Sales Volumes- Steel Products' is estimated at 4,089.04 tons, slightly up from 4,085 tons in the same quarter last year [4] - 'Volumes - Steelmaking - Stainless and electrical steel' is projected at 199.14 tons, compared to 174 tons reported in the previous year [4] Pricing Estimates - The average net selling price per net ton of steel products is expected to be $1,165.04, up from $1,128 year-over-year [3] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Cleveland-Cliffs shares have returned +0.4%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has decreased by -1.1% [5] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting performance alignment with the overall market in the upcoming period [5]

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) is slated to release first-quarter 2024 results after the closing bell on Apr 22.The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, while posted in-line result once. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 24.7%, on average. Cleveland-Cliffs is likely to have gained from healthy overall volumes, higher selling prices and lower steelmaking unit costs in the first quarter.The stock has gained 22.4% in a year’s time com ...

The market expects Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on April 22, 2024, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers a ...

The most recent trading session ended with Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) standing at $22.30, reflecting a +1.78% shift from the previouse trading day's closing. The stock exceeded the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.95% for the day. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 1.09%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.84%.Shares of the mining company have appreciated by 7.03% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Basic Materials sector's gain of 4.98% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.78%.The investment community will b ...

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to the United States has sparked discussions on bolstering military alliances and joint ventures in defense equipment. Amid these talks also looms the shadow of economic transactions, particularly the proposed acquisition of American industrial giant U.S. Steel (X) by Japan-based Nippon Steel, which has ignited concerns regarding national security and industry consolidation.Last month, U.S. President Joe Biden expressed his opposition to the deal. It’s not certai ...

In the latest market close, Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) reached $22.42, with a -1.8% movement compared to the previous day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.23%. At the same time, the Dow lost 1.36%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.4%.Heading into today, shares of the mining company had gained 13.64% over the past month, outpacing the Basic Materials sector's gain of 7.94% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.61% in that time.Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Cleveland-Cliffs in its ...

The latest trading session saw Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) ending at $21.20, denoting a +1.15% adjustment from its last day's close. This move outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.89%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 1.03%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 1.25%.The mining company's stock has climbed by 7.05% in the past month, exceeding the Basic Materials sector's gain of 4.26% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.56%.The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Cleveland-Cliffs in its fo ...

CLEVELAND--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) announced today the expiration of and final results for its previously announced offer to purchase for cash (the “Tender Offer”) any and all of its outstanding 6.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2026 (the “Notes”). The Tender Offer expired at 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on March 13, 2024 (the “Expiration Time”). On March 18, 2024, the Company purchased $639,737,000 in principal amount of the Notes that were validly tendered and not validly withd ...

JHVEPhoto My Thesis You are now reading my 15th article on Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) stock, which has been in a recovery trend since last September, but is still underperforming the S&P 500 Index (SP500) (SPX) when we look at the last 3 years: Seeking Alpha, Oakoff's coverage of CLFData by YCharts Despite the medium-term underperformance, which is more likely due to the cyclical nature of the company's industry, I still consider CLF to be one of the most promising companies in its niche. Despite CLF' ...