Traeger (COOK) is expected to deliver flat earnings compared to the year-ago quarter on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman downgraded Traeger, Inc. from Outperform to Market Perform, lowering the price forecast to $2.50 from $4.00 due to challenging performance trends expected in 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Guidance and Performance - Traeger provided disappointing guidance for 2025, forecasting flat sales at the midpoint of $595 million to $615 million, which is below the FactSet consensus of $628 million [1] - The analyst has lowered the 2025 sales forecast to $605 million from $632 million and expects adjusted EBITDA to be $75 million, down from a previous estimate of $90 million, reflecting a contraction in the adjusted EBITDA margin to 12.3% from 14.2% [5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Risks - Consumer caution due to elevated interest rates and inflation continues to affect spending on big-ticket items, which may impact Traeger's sales [2] - The guidance does not account for potential tariff impacts under the new Trump administration, which could hurt sales as around 50% of products are sourced from China [2] - Macroeconomic challenges are projected to continue affecting demand, with tariffs adding further downside risk [4] Group 3: Management Changes and Strategic Initiatives - Long-time CFO Dominic Blosil will step down at the end of the first quarter of 2025, with Joey Hord, Traeger's SVP of Finance and Strategy, set to replace him [3] - Traeger is introducing innovations like the Woodbridge line and exploring adjacent product categories, aiming to drive recurring revenues through its consumables business and grocery distribution while expanding internationally [4] - The analyst suggests that Traeger may still outperform the industry due to efforts in increasing brand awareness through marketing and customer engagement [3] Group 4: Future Projections - For 2026, the analyst projects 6% sales growth to $642 million and adjusted EBITDA of $90 million [5]

Financial and Operational Restrictions - The First Lien Credit Agreement imposes significant operating and financial restrictions, limiting the company's ability to incur additional debt, make investments, or engage in fundamental changes [216]. - Breaching the covenants of the First Lien Credit Agreement could lead to default, allowing creditors to accelerate debt repayment and potentially resulting in bankruptcy or liquidation [217]. Cybersecurity and Data Privacy - Cybersecurity threats are increasing, and any breach could lead to significant financial penalties, legal liabilities, and damage to the company's reputation [225]. - The company is subject to various data security frameworks and laws, and non-compliance could result in fines and restrictions that adversely affect its business [230]. - Insurance coverage for cybersecurity incidents may be limited, and significant claims could exceed available coverage, impacting financial results [231]. - The company collects and processes personal data, subjecting it to evolving legal obligations related to privacy and security, which could result in liability if not complied with [232]. - The California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) requires companies to provide disclosures to California consumers and allows them to opt-out of certain data disclosures, with civil penalties for violations [234]. - The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) imposes fines of up to €20 million or £17.5 million, or up to 4% of annual global revenue for non-compliance, whichever is greater [237]. - China's Cybersecurity Law mandates that personal information of Chinese citizens must be collected based on legitimacy, justification, and necessity, with fines up to RMB 100,000 for non-compliance [239]. - The Personal Information Protection Law (PIPL) in China can impose fines of up to RMB 50 million or 5% of the previous year's total annual revenue for violations [243]. - The Data Security Law requires important data to be stored locally in China and imposes penalties for non-compliance, including fines up to RMB 50 million [240]. - The California Privacy Rights Act (CPRA) significantly modifies the CCPA and expands consumer rights regarding sensitive personal data [236]. - The enactment of the CCPA has led to similar privacy statutes being enforced in thirteen states, with more expected to follow, increasing compliance complexity [236]. - Companies must maintain adequate security measures to comply with varying state laws on data breaches, requiring significant resource investments [236]. - The introduction of new foreign privacy laws may restrict marketing and personalization activities, adversely impacting business operations [238]. - Regulatory investigations and enforcement actions may arise from perceived failures in data privacy practices, potentially harming the company's reputation and financial condition [246]. Corporate Governance and Ownership Structure - As of March 3, 2025, funds or entities affiliated with AEA Fund, OTPP, and TCP owned approximately 60% of the voting power of the company's common stock [257]. - Certain actions by the company or its subsidiaries will require prior written consent from AEA Fund, OTPP, and TCP if they collectively own at least 30% of the outstanding shares, including transactions exceeding $250 million [257]. - The company has opted out of Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law, which may affect takeover attempts and management changes [255]. - The concentration of ownership among a limited number of stockholders may conflict with the interests of other stockholders and affect market price [259]. - The company's stock price may be volatile due to various factors, including anticipated fluctuations in operating results and significant sales by existing stockholders [253]. - Future sales of shares by existing stockholders could lead to a decline in the company's stock price [261]. - The company's certificate of incorporation allows for the issuance of shares of undesignated preferred stock without further action by stockholders [260]. - The doctrine of "corporate opportunity" does not apply to certain stockholders, potentially leading to competition for beneficial opportunities [265]. - The company is classified as a "controlled company," which may limit stockholder protections and result in a board lacking a majority of independent directors [275]. - The company is an "emerging growth company," allowing it to take advantage of reduced disclosure requirements, which may affect the attractiveness of its common stock to investors [276][277]. Financial Performance and Reporting - The company has incurred approximately $40.5 million in accelerated stock-based compensation expense for the year ended December 31, 2022, and $27.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, due to modifications and cancellations of stock awards [273][274]. - The company is currently implementing a new product lifecycle management (PLM) system to enhance data compilation and analysis related to product lifecycles, which may incur significant costs and require substantial employee attention [272]. - The company intends to retain future earnings for business operations and expansion, with no plans to declare or pay dividends in the foreseeable future [279]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of Apption Labs on July 1, 2021, which may involve unforeseen operational difficulties and additional liabilities [281]. - The company has a legal obligation to maintain effective internal controls over financial reporting, with potential implications for financial statement accuracy and investor confidence [267][271]. - The company may face increased legal and financial compliance costs due to reporting requirements under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and the Dodd-Frank Act [267]. - The company may experience a decline in share price and trading volume if analysts downgrade its shares or cease coverage [278]. - The company may incur additional costs and operational disruptions if it fails to implement necessary systems and procedures effectively [272]. Cash and Debt Management - The company had cash and cash equivalents of $15.0 million and $29.9 million as of December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively [395]. - The outstanding debt was $403.6 million and $403.8 million as of December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively [395]. - For every 100 basis point increase in interest rates, the company would incur approximately $4.0 million of additional annual interest expense [395]. Market and Economic Risks - The company is exposed to commodity price fluctuations, particularly in steel, which is a primary raw material for manufacturing [399]. - A 25% tariff on all steel imports will become effective on March 12, 2025, which may impact costs [399]. - The company may face adverse effects from sustained high inflation rates if selling prices do not increase accordingly [401]. - The company utilizes hedging strategies to manage currency transaction risks but cannot guarantee effectiveness [286]. - The company is subject to various legal proceedings that could materially harm its business and financial condition [283].

Traeger (COOK) Q4 2024 Earnings Call March 07, 2025 01:31 AM ET Company Participants Nick Bacchus - VP of IRJeremy Andrus - CEODominic Blosil - Chief Financial OfficerZachary Beeck - Equity Research AssociateMegan Clapp - Executive Director Conference Call Participants Anna Glaessgen - Senior Analyst, ConsumerBrian McNamara - MD & Senior Analyst - ConsumerPeter Keith - Managing Director & Senior Research Analyst Operator Good afternoon. Thank you for attending the Traeger Fourth Quarter and Full Year twenty ...

For the quarter ended December 2024, Traeger (COOK) reported revenue of $168.64 million, up 3.2% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.01, compared to -$0.08 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $164.62 million, representing a surprise of +2.44%. The company has not delivered EPS surprise, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.01.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expe ...

Core Viewpoint - Traeger reported quarterly earnings of $0.01 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and showing improvement from a loss of $0.08 per share a year ago [1] - The company achieved revenues of $168.64 million for the quarter ended December 2024, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.44% and up from $163.48 million year-over-year [2] Financial Performance - Traeger has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, with the latest quarter reflecting a loss of $0.06 per share as expected [1] - The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times in the last four quarters [2] Stock Performance - Traeger shares have declined approximately 6.3% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of 0.7% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.07 on revenues of $150.24 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.18 on revenues of $624.28 million [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Traeger is mixed, which may change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Consumer Products - Discretionary industry, to which Traeger belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 40% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that industry outlook can materially affect stock performance [5][8]

"I am pleased with our solid finish to Fiscal 2024. In the fourth quarter, our grill revenues were better than expected, driven by healthy consumer demand at retail as well as load in of our new Woodridge series of wood pellet grills. We again saw significant gross margin expansion, which allowed us to exceed our Fiscal Year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Qverall, we made a lot of progress on our key strategic initiatives in 2024. This includes increasing brand awareness and market share, investing into our ...

Revenue Performance - Total revenues increased 3.2% to $168.6 million in Q4 2024, compared to $163.5 million in Q4 2023[4] - Grill revenues surged 30.2% to $78.0 million in Q4 2024, driven by higher unit volumes[8] - Full year 2024 total revenues decreased 0.3% to $604.1 million, compared to $605.9 million in 2023[9] - North America revenues increased 11.2% in Q4 2024, while Rest of World revenues decreased 38.6%[5] - The company expects total revenue for Fiscal Year 2025 to be between $595 million and $615 million[18] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved to 40.9%, up 410 basis points from 36.8% in the prior year[6] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $18.4 million, up from $13.0 million in Q4 2023[8] - Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA increased 34.1% to $81.9 million from $61.1 million in 2023[12] - Gross profit for Q4 2024 increased to $68,890,000, up 14.0% from $60,137,000 in Q4 2023[23] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 increased to $18,361,000, compared to $12,982,000 in Q4 2023, reflecting a margin improvement from 7.9% to 10.9%[32] Net Loss and Expenses - Net loss narrowed to $7.0 million in Q4 2024, compared to a net loss of $24.0 million in Q4 2023[8] - Net loss for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $34,008,000, a significant improvement compared to a net loss of $84,402,000 in 2023[25] - Total other expense for Q4 2024 was $8,705,000, a decrease from $11,582,000 in Q4 2023[23] - The company reported a comprehensive loss of $40,612,000 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $96,725,000 in 2023[23] - Stock-based compensation expenses decreased to $4,837,000 in Q4 2024 from $6,023,000 in Q4 2023[32] Cash Flow and Operating Activities - Cash provided by operating activities for the year was $23,888,000, down from $64,042,000 in 2023[25] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the period was $14,981,000, down from $29,921,000 at the end of 2023[25] Interest and Shares - The company incurred interest expense of $33,500,000 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $31,275,000 in 2023[25] - Interest expense increased to $8,192,000 in Q4 2024 from $7,867,000 in Q4 2023[32] - Weighted average diluted shares outstanding increased to 129,174,440 in Q4 2024 from 125,094,571 in Q4 2023[32] Earnings Per Share - The company reported a basic and diluted net loss per share of $0.05 for Q4 2024, compared to $0.19 in Q4 2023[23] - The company reported a net loss per diluted share of $0.05 in Q4 2024, improving from a loss of $0.19 per diluted share in Q4 2023[32]

Group 1 - Traeger, Inc. (COOK) has integrated IoT technologies and new applications to enhance control over its wood pellet grills, which is expected to drive revenue growth and free cash flow (FCF) due to the anticipated expansion in the IoT kitchen system market [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing trend of smart kitchen appliances, aligning with consumer preferences for convenience and technology integration in cooking [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a beneficial long position in COOK shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and does not involve compensation from any company mentioned, ensuring an unbiased perspective [2]

Core Insights - Traeger (COOK) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.01 per share, reflecting a significant increase of 112.5% year over year [1] - Analysts forecast revenues of $164.62 million for the quarter, indicating a modest increase of 0.7% compared to the previous year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting a reevaluation of initial estimates by analysts [1] Revenue Estimates - Analysts project 'Net sales- Grills' to reach $62.12 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.7% [4] - The estimated 'Net sales- Consumables' is $26.97 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 9.6% [4] - 'Net sales- Accessories' is expected to be $75.76 million, reflecting a decline of 4.1% from the prior-year quarter [4] Stock Performance - Traeger shares have decreased by 4.9% over the past month, contrasting with a 1.3% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [5] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the near future [5]