Core Insights - Crescent Energy (CRGY) is focused on oil and gas exploration and production in the United States, primarily operating in the Eagle Ford Basin in Texas and the Uinta Basin [1] Company Overview - Crescent Energy is an American company dedicated to the exploration and production of oil and gas [1] - The company operates mainly in the Eagle Ford Basin in Texas and the Uinta Basin [1] Investment Focus - The company is characterized by sustained free cash flows, low levels of leverage, and sustainable debt over time [1] - It targets companies in distress with high recovery potential, particularly in sectors like oil & gas, metals, and mining [1] - Crescent Energy is positioned in emerging markets, showing high margins and medium to long-term investment opportunities [1] Shareholder Value - The company maintains a solid pro-shareholder attitude, with sustained buyback programs and dividend distributions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY) is considered a cheap oil stock under $10, with a Buy rating maintained by Siebert Williams Shank & Co. and a price target of $14 [1]. Financial Performance - Crescent Energy reported Q3 2025 revenues of $866.6 million, which is 16% higher than Q3 2024 but below the forecast of $876.5 million [2]. - The company's EPS fell short of analyst expectations by 111.76%, attributed to non-cash charges from asset impairments and acquisition expenses [2]. Production Metrics - Average net production for the quarter was 253 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), consisting of 41% oil and 58% liquids, despite a 4 Mboe/d decline due to recent divestitures [3]. - Management reported drilling 16 gross operated wells and bringing 31 online in the Eagle Ford region [3]. Capital Expenditures - Full-year 2025 capital expenditures have been raised to $910–$970 million, reflecting a 4% improvement from initial targets, driven by efficiencies and proceeds from divestitures [4]. Company Overview - Crescent Energy is an oil and natural gas company that develops and operates large-scale production assets across the United States, focusing on crude oil and natural gas [4].

Core Viewpoint - The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for Crescent Energy (CRGY) is 1.33, indicating a strong buy sentiment from analysts, but reliance solely on this metric may not be advisable due to potential biases in brokerage recommendations [2][5][11]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - Crescent Energy has an ABR of 1.33, with 10 out of 12 recommendations classified as Strong Buy, representing 83.3% of total recommendations [2]. - Brokerage recommendations often exhibit a positive bias due to the vested interests of the firms, leading to a higher number of favorable ratings compared to negative ones [6][11]. - The ABR is calculated based on brokerage recommendations, which may not always reflect the actual potential for price appreciation [5][10]. Group 2: Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock rating tool, classifies stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, providing a more reliable indicator of near-term price performance [8][12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Crescent Energy's current year earnings remains unchanged at $1.55, suggesting stable analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [14]. - Crescent Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious approach despite the favorable ABR [15]. Group 3: Comparison of ABR and Zacks Rank - The ABR and Zacks Rank are different measures; ABR is based on brokerage recommendations and can be displayed in decimals, while Zacks Rank is a quantitative model based on earnings estimates and is displayed in whole numbers [9][10]. - The ABR may not be up-to-date, whereas the Zacks Rank reflects timely revisions in earnings estimates, making it a more current predictor of stock price movements [13].

Group 1 - Crescent Energy Company's share price fell by 7.33% from November 11 to November 18, 2025, making it one of the worst-performing energy stocks during that week [1] - Piper Sandler analyst Mark Lear revised the price target for Crescent Energy from $15 to $13 while maintaining an 'Overweight' rating, citing updates to exploration and production models following Q3 reports [3] - The company reported a strong Q3 performance with adjusted EPS of $0.35, exceeding expectations by $0.04, and revenue growth of 16.3% year-over-year to $866 million [4] Group 2 - Crescent Energy agreed to sell its drilling portfolio in the US Rocky Mountain region for over $400 million, which is expected to strengthen its balance sheet and allow a focus on core areas in the Eagle Ford and Uinta basins [4] - Despite the recent dip in share price, the earlier gain of over 20% in the month was attributed to the positive Q3 results, indicating potential profit-taking by investors [4]

Core Insights - Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY) has shown strong performance, extending its winning streak to five consecutive days with an 8.15% increase in stock price, closing at $9.69, driven by rising oil and gas prices and investor interest ahead of a dividend record date [1][3]. Industry Overview - Natural gas prices increased by 5.23% to $4.57/MMBtu, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.65% and 1.51%, reaching $65.12 and $61.04 per barrel, respectively, influenced by sanctions imposed by President Donald Trump on Russian oil firms due to the ongoing war in Ukraine [2]. - The energy sector typically experiences a rise in power demand during the winter months, attributed to increased household consumption for heating [3]. Company Performance - In the third quarter, Crescent Energy reported a narrowed net loss of $9.5 million, down from $9.9 million year-on-year, while revenues increased by 16.3% to $866 million from $744.9 million [4]. - Common shareholders of Crescent Energy are set to receive a dividend of $0.12 per share, payable on December 1, 2025, for shares held as of November 17 [5].

Production and Sales - Third quarter production averaged 253 MBoe/d, consisting of approximately 41% oil and 58% liquids, with oil production at 103 Mbo/d[4] - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, average daily net sales volumes were 103 MBbls/d for oil, 631 MMcf/d for natural gas, and 45 MBbls/d for NGLs, resulting in a total of 253 MBoe/d, representing a 15.5% increase from 219 MBoe/d in the same period of 2024[26] - Total revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $866.6 million, up 16.3% from $744.9 million in the same period of 2024, driven by increased oil and natural gas sales[27] - The average realized price for oil was $63.07 per Bbl, a decrease of 8.3% from $69.19 per Bbl in the same period of 2024, while natural gas prices increased to $2.49 per Mcf from $1.55 per Mcf[26] Financial Performance - Crescent reported a net loss of $10 million and an Adjusted Net Income of $88 million for the third quarter[5] - Generated $487 million in Adjusted EBITDAX, $473 million in Operating Cash Flow, and $204 million in Levered Free Cash Flow[5] - Net income attributable to Crescent for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $141.6 million, compared to $3.4 million in the same period of 2024, indicating a significant improvement in profitability[27] - The company reported net cash provided by operating activities of $1,309,140 thousand for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $838,652 thousand for the same period in 2024, an increase of approximately 55.9%[32] - Adjusted Net Income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $88,332 thousand, compared to $81,972 thousand in 2024, showing an increase of approximately 7.5%[42] Cost Management and Efficiency - Achieved 15% savings in drilling, completion, and facilities costs per foot compared to 2024, enhancing capital efficiencies in the Eagle Ford[6] - Operating expenses per Boe for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $16.65, slightly higher than $16.23 in the same period of 2024, reflecting ongoing cost management efforts[26] - General and administrative expenses decreased significantly to $74.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, from $159.7 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting improved cost control measures[27] - The company incurred transaction and nonrecurring expenses of $19,938 thousand for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $56,311 thousand in 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 64.5%[42] Debt and Equity - Strengthened the balance sheet with approximately $150 million in debt repayment and expanded the borrowing base by 50% to $3.9 billion[6] - Long-term debt increased to $3,221,409 thousand as of September 30, 2025, up from $3,049,255 thousand on December 31, 2024, marking an increase of about 5.6%[30] - Total current liabilities rose to $864,198 thousand as of September 30, 2025, compared to $827,363 thousand at the end of 2024, reflecting an increase of approximately 4.4%[30] - Total equity increased to $4,478,881 thousand as of September 30, 2025, compared to $3,139,631 thousand at the end of 2024, representing a growth of approximately 42.7%[30] Future Outlook and Guidance - Enhanced 2025 guidance for the second consecutive quarter, resulting in a 4% improvement in capital outlook while maintaining production levels[9][10] - Future guidance indicates a focus on increasing production volumes and optimizing operational efficiencies to drive revenue growth in the upcoming quarters[25] Acquisitions and Divestitures - Announced the acquisition of Vital Energy for approximately $3.1 billion in an all-stock transaction, expected to close in late Q4 2025[7] - Executed agreements for non-core divestitures totaling over $800 million year-to-date, including more than $700 million in September and October 2025[8] Market Conditions and Derivatives - The company achieved a gain on derivatives of $55.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a gain of $96.9 million in the same period of 2024, indicating volatility in market conditions[27] - The unrealized loss on derivatives for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $(33,859) thousand, compared to $(91,672) thousand in 2024, indicating an improvement in derivative performance[42] Dividends - Approved a cash dividend of $0.12 per share for the third quarter, payable on December 1, 2025[11] - Class A common stock dividends for Q3 2025 were $30,554,000, up from $19,562,000 in Q3 2024, representing a 56.9% increase[52] - Adjusted dividends paid for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $92,125,000, compared to $69,692,000 for the same period in 2024, reflecting a 32.2% increase[52]

Group 1 - The article discusses the analysis of oil and gas companies, specifically focusing on Crescent Energy and similar firms, highlighting the search for undervalued companies in the sector [1] - The author emphasizes the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry, which requires patience and experience for successful investment [2] - The investing group, Oil & Gas Value Research, aims to identify under-followed oil companies and out-of-favor midstream companies that present attractive investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that the investing group includes an active chat room for discussions among oil and gas investors, facilitating the sharing of recent information and ideas [2] - The author has a beneficial long position in Crescent Energy shares, indicating a personal investment interest in the company [3] - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations but encourages investors to review company documents and press releases for their own investment qualifications [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crescent Energy generated approximately $487 million of adjusted EBITDA and $204 million of levered free cash flow for Q3 2025, demonstrating strong financial performance [13][4] - The company reported $205 million in capital expenditures, maintaining a lower capital-intensive operating model [13] - The company announced a dividend of $0.12 per share for the quarter, equating to a 6% annualized yield, and repaid over $150 million of debt during the quarter [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crescent produced 253,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 103,000 barrels of oil per day, indicating strong operational performance [5] - In the Eagle Ford region, the company achieved 15% savings per foot on capital expenditures compared to the previous year, with well productivity outperforming prior activity by over 20% [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to maintain a production guidance of approximately 39% oil in Q4 2025, despite the impact of divestitures [36] - The divestitures are projected to have a 16,000 BOE per day impact on Q4 production, reflecting the company's strategic asset management [35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Crescent announced a transformative acquisition of Vital Energy, establishing itself as a top 10 U.S. independent oil and gas producer and enhancing its growth trajectory [4][8] - The company plans to streamline its portfolio through over $800 million in non-core divestitures, focusing on maintaining a strong balance sheet and reducing debt [5][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate significant long-term value for investors, emphasizing a focus on free cash flow generation and operational excellence [17] - The management team highlighted the successful integration of acquired assets and the potential for significant value creation through improved operations [9][10] Other Important Information - Crescent has successfully increased its borrowing base by 50% to $3.9 billion, reflecting strong support from its bank group [14] - The company plans to use 100% of the proceeds from divestitures to pay down existing credit facilities, further strengthening its balance sheet [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Development plan and operational efficiencies - Management confirmed no fundamental changes in their operational strategy, focusing on efficient operations and capital allocation [20] Question: M&A parameters and future acquisitions - Management stated that they will continue to look for great value and asset opportunities in the Eagle Ford and Permian regions, maintaining their underwriting standards [21] Question: Leverage and future steps - Management indicated a strong balance sheet and plans to use divestiture proceeds to reduce debt, aiming for a long-term leverage target of one time [26] Question: Impact of divestitures on maintenance CapEx - Management noted that divestitures would improve margins and reserve life, while maintaining a lower reinvestment rate [28] Question: Production guidance for Q4 2025 - Management reaffirmed production guidance, indicating a 16,000 BOE per day impact from divestitures [35] Question: Future capital allocation between gas and oil - Management emphasized a flexible approach to capital allocation, focusing on returns and the ability to switch between oil and gas based on market conditions [38] Question: Status of divestiture program - Management confirmed the success of the divestiture program and indicated that while there are smaller assets remaining, they can decide to sell them at the right time [42] Question: Well performance in Eagle Ford - Management attributed improved well performance to their acquisition strategy and operational practices, expecting continued outperformance [43] Question: Minerals business outlook - Management confirmed that the minerals business is a core part of their strategy with no plans for divestiture [46] Question: Cash tax situation post-divestitures - Management expects the divestitures to be broadly tax-neutral, with a minor tax gain anticipated from the sales [47]

Financial Performance - Crescent Energy's Q3'25 performance exceeded expectations, generating $487 million in Adjusted EBITDAX[14] - The company reported $204 million in Levered Free Cash Flow in Q3'25[14] - Crescent Energy paid a fixed quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share, resulting in a 6% fixed dividend yield[14] - The company paid down over $150 million in debt during Q3[13] Strategic Acquisitions and Divestitures - Crescent Energy announced the acquisition of Vital Energy for approximately $3.1 billion[13] - The company signed over $700 million in accretive divestitures during Q3'25[13] - Year-to-date, Crescent Energy has signed over $800 million in non-core divestitures[19] Operational Highlights - Q3'25 average production was 253 Mboe/d, with 41% oil and 58% liquids[14] - Eagle Ford well performance has increased by approximately 20% year-over-year[37] - Crescent Energy achieved approximately 15% DC&F savings year-to-date in both the Eagle Ford and Uinta basins[35, 42] Balance Sheet and Capital Management - Crescent Energy's net LTM leverage ratio is 14x[14] - The company has approximately $20 billion in liquidity[14] - The borrowing base was increased to $39 billion pro forma for the Vital Energy acquisition[13]

Financial Performance - Total revenues increased by $121.7 million, or 16%, to $866.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $744.9 million in the same period of 2024[192]. - Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased by $659.1 million, or 32%, to $2.71 billion, compared to $2.06 billion for the same period in 2024[213]. - The company reported net income (loss) of $(10.3) million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $(5.6) million for the same period in 2024, reflecting an increase in loss of 84%[207]. - Net income increased by $125.9 million, or 390%, to $158.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $32.3 million in 2024[228]. - The company’s net cash provided by operating activities increased by $470.5 million, or 56%, to $1.31 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $838.7 million in 2024[229]. Revenue Breakdown - Natural gas revenue surged by $65.7 million, or 83%, driven by a 61% increase in realized prices per Mcf and a 14% increase in sales volume[193]. - Oil revenue rose by $47.9 million, or 9%, attributed to a 20% increase in sales volume, offset by a 9% decrease in realized prices per Bbl[192]. - Oil revenue increased by $296.5 million, or 19%, to $1.82 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, driven by a 37% increase in sales volume[213]. - Natural gas revenue surged by $280.9 million, or 134%, to $490.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to a 45% increase in sales volume[214]. - NGL revenue rose by $77.2 million, or 35%, to $298.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, driven by a 39% increase in sales volume[215]. Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses increased by $60.3 million, or 18%, totaling $386.9 million, primarily due to higher production from acquisitions[196]. - Operating expenses increased by $256.1 million, or 28%, to $1.18 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $924.4 million for the same period in 2024[218]. - General and administrative expenses decreased by $85.4 million, or 53%, to $74.3 million, driven by lower equity-based compensation and transaction-related expenses[200]. - Interest expense increased by 17% to $72.6 million, primarily due to higher average debt balances from acquisitions[202]. - Interest expense rose to $221.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $146.9 million in 2024, driven by higher average debt balances from the SilverBow Merger and Ridgemar Acquisition[223]. Acquisitions and Mergers - Crescent acquired Ridgemar (Eagle Ford) LLC for $807.2 million in cash and 5.5 million shares of Class A Common Stock, with potential contingent earn-out consideration of up to $170.0 million[165]. - The company completed the SilverBow Merger, issuing 51.6 million shares of Class A Common Stock and paying $382.4 million in cash to former SilverBow shareholders[166]. - The company acquired additional interests in oil and gas properties in Webb County, Texas, for approximately $21.2 million in January 2025[167]. - In July 2025, Crescent acquired a portfolio of oil and natural gas mineral interests for total cash consideration of approximately $67.9 million, funded through borrowings from its Revolving Credit Facility[168]. - Cash used for the acquisition of oil and natural gas properties was $942.5 million in 2025, up from $387.8 million in 2024, primarily due to the Ridgemar Acquisition and Minerals Acquisition[259]. Debt and Financing - Crescent Energy recorded impairment expenses of $73.5 million and $122.2 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, respectively, related to oil and natural gas properties[155]. - The company completed a cash tender offer for approximately $306.1 million of its outstanding 9.250% Senior Notes due 2028 and redeemed an additional $193.9 million of these notes, resulting in a loss on extinguishment of debt of approximately $29.2 million[157]. - Crescent issued $600.0 million of 8.375% senior notes due 2034, with net proceeds of approximately $588.1 million used to finance the tender offer and redeem the 2028 notes[158][159]. - The company incurred a loss on extinguishment of debt of $29.2 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a loss of $59.1 million in 2024[224]. - The company expects to maintain compliance with covenants under its debt agreements based on planned capital spending and forecasted cash flows[236]. Operational Metrics - Average daily net sales volumes for oil increased by 20% to 103 MBbls/d, while natural gas volumes rose by 14% to 631 MMcf/d[192]. - Total sales volume increased by 3,111 MBoe and 20,178 MBoe for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, respectively, primarily due to acquisitions[186]. - The effective tax rate for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was 28.2%, up from 22.7% in the prior year, influenced by increased ownership of OpCo[205]. - The effective tax rate for the three months ended September 30, 2025, increased due to higher ownership of OpCo, with a deferred tax liability increase of $136.9 million[173]. - The company plans to fund its 2025 capital program through cash flow from operations, with flexibility to defer expenditures based on market conditions[178]. Shareholder Returns - The Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share, amounting to an annualized dividend of $0.48 per share, payable on December 1, 2025[262]. - The company paid cash dividends of $0.36 per share of Class A Common Stock during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[261]. - Management will evaluate future increases in cash dividends on a quarterly basis, considering current economic conditions[263]. Derivative and Risk Management - As of September 30, 2025, the company's derivative portfolio had an aggregate notional value of approximately $3.1 billion, with a net asset fair market value of $88.8 million[275]. - A hypothetical 10% increase in commodity prices would change the net commodity derivative position by approximately $198.6 million, while a 10% decrease would change it by approximately $168.4 million[276]. - The company had $72.0 million of variable rate debt outstanding as of September 30, 2025, with a potential interest expense impact of approximately $0.5 million for a 1% change in interest rates[282].