Core Insights - Crescent Energy reported revenue of $950.17 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a 44.5% increase year-over-year [1] - The company's EPS was $0.56, up from $0.46 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of +19.15% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.47 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $937.06 million, resulting in a surprise of +1.40% [1] - Average daily net sales volumes totaled 258 million barrels of oil equivalent, slightly below the analyst estimate of 259.04 million [4] - Natural gas sales volumes averaged 655 million cubic feet, slightly above the estimate of 652.47 million cubic feet [4] - Oil sales volumes averaged 102 million barrels, close to the estimate of 102.48 million barrels [4] - Natural gas liquids sales volumes averaged 47 million barrels, exceeding the estimate of 44.3 million barrels [4] Pricing Metrics - Average sales price per barrel for natural gas liquids was $25.43, above the estimate of $24.29 [4] - Average sales price per thousand cubic feet for natural gas was $3.18, compared to the estimate of $3.13 [4] - Average sales price per barrel for oil and condensate was $67.64, slightly above the estimate of $67.61 [4] - Average realized prices per barrel for natural gas liquids after derivative settlements were $25.13, exceeding the estimate of $24.25 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from natural gas reached $187.44 million, significantly above the estimate of $173.27 million, representing a year-over-year increase of +134.5% [4] - Revenues from oil were $619.66 million, slightly below the estimate of $637.78 million, with a year-over-year increase of +30.8% [4] - Revenues from natural gas liquids were $107.58 million, surpassing the estimate of $97.50 million [4] - Revenues from midstream and other operations totaled $35.50 million, above the estimate of $31.05 million [4] Stock Performance - Crescent Energy shares returned +10.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Crescent Energy (CRGY) reported quarterly earnings of $0.56 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.47 per share, and showing an increase from $0.46 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 19.15% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $950.17 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.40%, and up from $657.47 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Crescent Energy has exceeded consensus EPS estimates four times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - Crescent Energy shares have declined approximately 41% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 3.3% for the S&P 500 [3] - The company's earnings outlook is uncertain, with current consensus EPS estimates at $0.26 for the upcoming quarter and $1.66 for the current fiscal year, with revenues expected to be $898.17 million and $3.7 billion respectively [7] Industry Context - The Alternative Energy - Other industry, to which Crescent Energy belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 41% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact Crescent Energy's stock performance [5]

Financial Performance - Crescent Energy's Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDAX was approximately $530 million[11] - The company generated approximately $242 million in Levered Free Cash Flow during Q1 2025[11] - The company repurchased approximately $30 million of shares YTD at an average price of $826 per share[10] - The company has ~$14 billion in liquidity as of March 31, 2025[11] Operational Highlights - Q1 2025 net production averaged approximately 258 Mboe/d, with approximately 40% oil and approximately 58% liquids[11] - Eagle Ford net production was approximately 165 Mboe/d with approximately 40% oil in Q1 2025[32] - Uinta net production was approximately 23 Mboe/d with approximately 63% oil in Q1 2025[39] Capital Allocation and Returns - The company offers an approximately 6% fixed dividend yield and an approximately 7% yield inclusive of buybacks[10] - The company closed approximately $90 million of non-core divestitures YTD[10, 42] 2025 Outlook - The company anticipates 2025 capital expenditures between $925 million and $1025 million[61] - The company expects total production to be between 251 and 261 Mboe/d in 2025, adjusted for divestitures[61]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2025, reached $950.2 million, a 45% increase from $657.5 million in the same period of 2024 [177]. - Oil revenue increased by $145.8 million (31%) due to a 43% rise in sales volumes, primarily driven by the SilverBow Merger and Ridgemar Acquisition [177]. - Natural gas revenue surged by $107.5 million (134%), attributed to a 63% increase in sales volumes and a 46% rise in realized prices [178]. - NGL revenue rose by $40.6 million (61%), driven by a 68% increase in sales volumes [179]. - Total sales volume increased by 8,129 MBoe, reaching 23,217 MBoe for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to 15,088 MBoe in 2024 [171]. - Adjusted EBITDAX increased by $216.1 million, or 69%, to $529.5 million, driven by additional production from acquisitions [192][194]. - Levered Free Cash Flow increased by $175.5 million, or 265%, to $241.6 million, primarily due to increased Adjusted EBITDAX [194]. - Net cash provided by operating activities increased by $153.3 million, or 83%, to $337.1 million [193]. Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses rose by $99.3 million (33%) to $403.5 million, influenced by increased production from acquisitions [181]. - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization expenses increased by $106.0 million (60%) due to higher production levels [182]. - Lease and asset operating expense increased by $30.0 million, or 18%, to $8.27 per Boe, driven by higher production from the SilverBow Merger and Ridgemar Acquisition [184]. - Gathering, transportation, and marketing expense rose by $35.7 million, or 51%, to $4.53 per Boe, primarily due to the SilverBow Merger and Ridgemar Acquisition [184]. - Production and other taxes increased by $27.9 million, or 86%, to $2.60 per Boe, driven by higher oil and gas revenues [184]. - General and administrative expense increased by $14.1 million, or 33%, totaling $56.77 million, with recurring G&A rising by 115% [185][186]. - Interest expense rose by $30.5 million, or 71%, to $73.2 million, primarily due to higher average debt balances from acquisitions [187]. Acquisitions and Mergers - The company acquired Ridgemar (Eagle Ford) LLC for $812.5 million in cash and issued 5.5 million shares of Class A Common Stock, with potential contingent earn-out consideration of up to $170.0 million [154]. - The company completed the SilverBow Merger, issuing 51.6 million shares of Class A Common Stock and paying $382.4 million in cash to former SilverBow shareholders [155]. - The company acquired additional interests in oil and gas properties in Webb County, Texas for approximately $21.2 million in January 2025 [156]. - Cash used for the acquisition of oil and natural gas properties in Q1 2025 was $864.7 million, significantly higher than $19.5 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to the Ridgemar Acquisition [223]. Impairments and Adjustments - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the company recorded an impairment expense of $45.6 million related to oil and natural gas properties [147]. - Impairment expense of $45.6 million was recorded for the three months ended March 31, 2025, related to assets held for sale [183]. - The company recorded a decrease of $34.1 million in redeemable noncontrolling interests as a result of the March 2025 Class A Redemption [152]. Capital Expenditures and Funding - The company expects to fund its 2025 capital program through cash flow from operations, with flexibility to defer expenditures based on market conditions [164]. - Total expenditures on acquisition and development of oil and natural gas properties for the three months ended March 31, 2025, amounted to $1.15 billion, compared to $156.3 million in the same period of 2024 [223]. - The company’s capital program for 2025 is expected to be funded through cash flow from operations, with capital expenditures being regularly reviewed and adjusted based on various factors [222]. Debt and Financing - Long-term debt increased to $3,596,870 thousand as of March 31, 2025, compared to $3,049,255 thousand as of December 31, 2024 [199]. - The company issued $750 million of 7.375% senior notes due 2033 in June 2024 and an additional $250 million in September 2024, raising approximately $981.8 million in total proceeds [203]. - The company issued $700 million of 7.625% senior notes due 2032 in March 2024 and an additional $400 million in December 2024, raising approximately $1,080.7 million in total proceeds [206]. - As of March 31, 2025, the elected commitment amount under the Revolving Credit Facility was approximately $2.0 billion, with $546.5 million of outstanding borrowings [215]. - The borrowing base under the Revolving Credit Facility was $2.6 billion as of March 31, 2025, with a weighted average interest rate of 6.34% on outstanding loans [216][217]. - The company expects to maintain compliance with covenants under its debt agreements based on planned capital spending and forecasted cash flows [199]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $6,255 thousand as of March 31, 2025, from $132,818 thousand as of December 31, 2024 [199]. - Net cash used in investing activities surged by $899.5 million, or 571%, to $(1,056,923) thousand for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily due to $845.1 million for acquisitions related to the Ridgemar Acquisition [201]. - Net cash provided by financing activities was $502,653 thousand for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $(23,867) thousand for the same period in 2024 [202]. - The company paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share on March 26, 2025, with an annualized dividend of $0.48 per share [225][226]. - Management will evaluate future increases in cash dividends on a quarterly basis, considering current economic conditions and financial performance [227]. Market Conditions and Economic Factors - The company experienced significant inflationary pressures, impacting operating costs and capital expenditures, with the U.S. inflation rate remaining elevated through 2024 and early 2025 [149]. - The effective tax rate increased to 30.7% in Q1 2025 from 11.5% in Q1 2024, primarily due to increased ownership of OpCo and higher state tax rates [190]. - The company plans to continue entering into derivative contracts to hedge against commodity price fluctuations [174]. - The company plans to continue economic hedging arrangements to mitigate commodity price volatility and protect margins [197]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company's derivative portfolio had an aggregate notional value of approximately $3.1 billion, with a net liability of $79.1 million for commodity derivative contracts [239]. - A hypothetical 10% increase in commodity prices would change the net commodity derivative position by approximately $214.7 million, while a 10% decrease would change it by approximately $171.5 million [240].

Core Viewpoint - Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 5, with earnings estimated at 47 cents per share, reflecting a 2.2% increase year-over-year, and revenues projected at $937.1 million, indicating a 42.5% rise from the previous year [1][3]. Financial Performance - CRGY has consistently beaten consensus earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 82.4% [3]. - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this time [4]. - The average daily sales volume of oil for the March quarter is estimated at 103.36 MBbls/d, significantly higher than 70 MBbls/d in the prior-year quarter [6]. Market Context - The stock has decreased by 15.9% over the past year, outperforming the industry average decline of 27.3% [8]. - CRGY's trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio is 3.02, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to the industry average of 10.63 [11]. Strategic Developments - Since the end of 2023, CRGY has completed five acquisitions totaling over $3 billion, enhancing its presence in the Eagle Ford shale play [14]. - The company's reliance on acquisitions for growth raises concerns about its organic growth capabilities, which are essential for sustainable operations [14].

Core Viewpoint - Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) has seen its stock price decline over 50% since January, reflecting concerns over global recession and oil demand expectations, with the company underperforming its peers [1][4]. Company Overview - Crescent Energy is a Houston-based exploration and production firm focused on the Eagle Ford and Uinta basins, emphasizing free cash flow generation and disciplined capital allocation [4]. - The company owns approximately 74,000 net royalty acres and is involved in enhanced oil recovery projects, aiming for stable production and shareholder returns [4]. Recent Developments - In 2024, Crescent executed five acquisitions totaling over $3 billion, significantly expanding its Eagle Ford footprint and positioning itself among the top three producers in the basin [5]. - The company reported a 100% year-over-year increase in free cash flow, generating $259 million in Q4, exceeding Wall Street expectations [5]. - Crescent's production guidance for 2025 is set at 254,000–264,000 BOE/d, with planned capital spending of around $975 million [5]. Strategic Moves - The acquisition of SilverBow Resources has provided operational synergies, lower general and administrative costs, and better access to dry gas assets, enhancing Crescent's ability to navigate commodity price volatility [6]. - Management's capital allocation strategy includes opportunistic divestitures and selective mergers and acquisitions, balancing growth with financial prudence [6]. Challenges and Risks - EPS estimates for Crescent have declined sharply, with projections for 2025 and 2026 falling by approximately 22% and 27%, respectively, raising concerns over profitability and margin compression [8][9]. - The underperformance in the Uinta basin, despite promising initial results, poses a risk as the region remains underdeveloped and may become a capital drain [10]. - Crescent's current EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.04 is higher than its peers, raising questions about its valuation amidst execution risks and market unpredictability [11]. Conclusion - Despite Crescent Energy's expansion and improved free cash flow metrics, the stock faces significant execution risks and valuation concerns, making its future path less certain compared to peers [14].

The latest trading session saw Crescent Energy (CRGY) ending at $11.46, denoting a -1.63% adjustment from its last day's close. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.08%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.08%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.52%.Heading into today, shares of the oil and gas company had lost 22.39% over the past month, lagging the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 1.36% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.33% in that time.Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on ...

Core Viewpoint - Crescent Energy (CRGY) has experienced a significant decline of 23.2% over the past four weeks, but it is now positioned for a potential trend reversal as it is in oversold territory, supported by analysts' expectations of better earnings than previously predicted [1]. Group 1: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key technical indicator used to determine if a stock is oversold, with a reading below 30 typically indicating this condition [2]. - CRGY's current RSI reading is 13.61, suggesting that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting itself, indicating a potential trend reversal [5]. Group 2: Fundamental Indicators - There is a strong consensus among sell-side analysts that earnings estimates for CRGY have been raised, resulting in a 0.2% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, which often correlates with price appreciation [6]. - CRGY holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further indicating a potential turnaround [7].

Group 1 - Crescent Energy (CRGY) has experienced significant selling pressure, resulting in a 17.3% decline over the past four weeks, but analysts anticipate better earnings than previously predicted [1] - The stock is currently in oversold territory, indicated by an RSI reading of 17.67, suggesting a potential trend reversal is imminent [5] - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for CRGY has increased by 0.2%, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions which typically leads to price appreciation [6] Group 2 - CRGY holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further supporting the potential for a turnaround [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crescent Energy Company reported approximately $535 million of adjusted EBITDA and $259 million in levered free cash flow for Q4 2024, with capital expenditures of $221 million, better than forecast [29][30] - The company generated approximately $260 million of free cash flow for the quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations [12][29] - The company exited the year with net leverage of 1.4 times, within the publicly stated range of 1 to 1.5 times [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, Crescent Energy brought online 15 growth operated wells in the Eagle Ford and five in the Uinta, all generating strong initial results [30] - The company reported significant improvements in operating costs, with Q4 operating expenses close to $11.50 per BOE [46] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects production in 2025 to be between 254,000 to 264,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with capital expenditures projected at $925 million to $1.025 billion [24] - The company noted that oil realizations improved from the low nineties to the mid-nineties due to better marketing strategies and synergy capture [45] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Crescent Energy aims to maximize free cash flow generation and returns for investors through a flexible operational plan that includes both oil and gas weighted development [9][22] - The company plans to run four to five rigs in 2025, focusing on capitalizing on recent natural gas pricing tailwinds [24] - The company is committed to disciplined growth through acquisitions, having completed five transactions totaling over $3 billion in 2024 [21][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning to capitalize on future opportunities, emphasizing a disciplined approach to capital allocation and operational efficiency [10][25] - The management team highlighted that 2024 was a transformational year, with expectations for continued outperformance in 2025 [33][34] Other Important Information - Crescent Energy announced a dividend of $0.12 per share, contributing to an attractive 4% annualized yield for 2024 [30][31] - The company has a meaningful pipeline of non-core assets under evaluation for opportunistic divestiture, with a public target of $250 million for potential divestitures [28][64] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on 2025 capital allocation - Management indicated that the capital allocation for 2025 will focus on maximizing returns across their operational portfolio, with a slight increase in gas drilling due to stronger gas prices [39][40] Question: Drivers behind improved OpEx and oil realizations - Management attributed the improved oil realizations to better marketing strategies and synergy capture, while the lower operating expenses were driven by operational improvements and one-off items [42][46] Question: Future growth and acquisition strategy - Management confirmed satisfaction with past acquisitions and indicated that while they see opportunities for growth, they will remain disciplined and focused on high-quality acquisitions [50][54] Question: Non-core asset divestiture opportunities - Management highlighted a $250 million pipeline for divestitures, indicating that there are larger opportunities available compared to the $50 million divested in 2024 [60][64] Question: Resource potential in Uinta - Management expressed excitement about the resource potential in the Uinta basin, indicating a cautious approach to capital allocation while gathering data [67][88] Question: Path to achieving investment grade status - Management stated that achieving investment grade status would likely require doubling the production base while maintaining strong financial metrics [79][80] Question: Timing of divestitures based on commodity prices - Management indicated that they will evaluate the timing of divestitures based on market conditions and the potential to streamline their portfolio [91][95]