The Consumer Discretionary sector has entered the earnings season with momentum that is stronger than many expected. While the consumer discretionary sector spans a broad mix of industries from autos to travel and home improvement, our focus here is on lifestyle-driven businesses, including apparel brands, footwear manufacturers, fragrance companies and accessories players. These categories sit at the intersection of fashion, identity and aspiration, making them especially sensitive to shifts in consumer se ...

Core Insights - Carter's, Inc. (CRI) has faced a decline in net sales within its U.S. Wholesale segment during Q3 2025, primarily due to reduced demand for the Simple Joys brand on Amazon [1][9] - The company perceives the slowdown of Simple Joys as a structural shift rather than a temporary issue, prompting a strategic realignment with Amazon [2][9] - Management anticipates a low single-digit decline in wholesale sales for Q4 2025, although growth in other brands is expected to partially offset this decline [5][9] U.S. Wholesale Segment Performance - The U.S. Wholesale segment's decline is attributed to lower sales of the Simple Joys brand, which has been impacted by Amazon's new brand management strategy [1][2] - The company expects department stores to contribute less than 20% of total Wholesale channel sales in 2025, indicating a shift towards a more diversified wholesale mix [4] Strategic Adjustments - Under the revised strategy, core brands such as Carter's, OshKosh, Little Planet, and Otter Avenues are expected to gain more prominence [3] - The company plans to enhance collaboration with Amazon and share detailed growth initiatives moving forward [3] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a significant year-over-year decline in earnings for CRI, with expected decreases of 44.4% for 2025 and 28.5% for 2026 [15] - CRI's shares have increased by 36.3% over the past six months, contrasting with a 17.7% decline in the industry [6]

Group 1: Alps Electric - Alps Electric is a Japan-based company engaged in the manufacture and sale of electronic components and audio equipment, carrying a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alps Electric's current year earnings has increased by 6.9% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 25.05, compared to 32 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 2: Deutsche Bank - Deutsche Bank is the largest bank in Germany and one of the largest financial institutions globally, offering a wide variety of investment and financial products and services, also carrying a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deutsche Bank's current year earnings has increased by 1.4% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 9.38, compared to 13.20 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of B [3] Group 3: Carter's - Carter's is the largest marketer of branded apparel and related products for babies and young children in North America, carrying a Zacks Rank 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carter's current year earnings has increased by 5.9% over the last 60 days [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 15.72, compared to 22.30 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of B [4]

Core Insights - Carter's, Inc. (CRI) is experiencing overall growth constraints due to weaknesses in U.S. Wholesale, particularly from the Simple Joys brand, which has offset gains in U.S. Retail and International markets [1][3] - The company's net sales slightly declined by 0.1% to $757.8 million in Q3 2025 compared to the same quarter last year, with U.S. Wholesale declines neutralizing the growth from U.S. Retail and International [1][8] - Adjusted operating income fell by $40 million year-over-year, driven by weaker results in both U.S. Retail and U.S. Wholesale, indicating balanced pressure across these segments [2] U.S. Wholesale Performance - U.S. Wholesale sales decreased due to softer performance from the Simple Joys brand, which has seen moderated demand on Amazon throughout the year [3] - The brand's rapid growth post-launch in 2017 has been impacted by recent shifts in Amazon's brand management strategy, intensifying pressure on this business [3] Future Outlook - The company is developing a framework to better align with Amazon's operating model across its brand portfolio, aiming for a more sustainable long-term business beyond Simple Joys [4] - Management anticipates low-single-digit declines in U.S. Wholesale sales for Q4, while expecting gains in the rest of the U.S. Wholesale portfolio to partially mitigate the overall decline [4] Stock Performance - Carter's shares have increased by 20.8% over the past six months, contrasting with an 8.7% decline in the industry [5] - The current forward price-to-earnings ratio for CRI is 17.04X, which is lower than the industry average of 28.16X [7] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 44.4% for the current year and 28.5% for the next year [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has experienced three consecutive quarters of comparable store growth, maintaining higher average unit retail prices (AUR) without the typical unit degradation associated with price increases [11][12] - The wholesale business in the U.S. represents approximately $1 billion of the company's $3 billion in revenue, with a significant portion attributed to exclusive brands [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) business showed strong performance, with the wholesale business exceeding expectations during the holiday period [11] - The company has identified around 150 stores for closure, primarily those that are lower margin, which collectively represent about $110 million in revenue [22][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has diversified its market approach, performing well across wholesale, international, and retail channels, with all age categories exceeding expectations [11] - The shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping has been significant, with e-commerce now accounting for about one-third of U.S. retail revenue [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to invest in product design and demand creation to resonate with today's young consumers, particularly Gen Z parents [6][8] - There is a focus on enhancing brand identity for each product line, allowing brands like Oshkosh and Carter's to develop their unique identities [41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the need for reinvestment in marketing and product quality to attract new consumers and regain the trust of lapsed customers [6][16] - The expectation for growth in sales and earnings remains for 2026, with a focus on sustainable and profitable growth rather than growth driven by discounts [39][40] Other Important Information - The company is transitioning its Amazon business from a private label to core flagship brands, which is expected to drive future growth [36] - The supply chain team has successfully diversified sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, resulting in meaningful cost savings [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the biggest challenges faced since the new CEO took over? - The CEO highlighted the need for investment in product design and demand creation to align with consumer expectations [6] Question: Can you elaborate on the holiday performance? - The CEO noted strong performance across all channels, with the ability to maintain higher prices without losing unit sales [11] Question: What is the strategy for store closures? - The company plans to close 150 stores identified as lower margin, with expectations that some revenue will transfer to nearby locations [22][26] Question: How does e-commerce fit into the overall strategy? - E-commerce is a significant part of the business, expected to grow as physical store closures occur, with a focus on omnichannel capabilities [29] Question: What is the outlook for the wholesale business? - The wholesale business is expected to evolve, focusing on exclusive brands and adapting to changes in retail environments [36][37]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong performance in its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business and wholesale channels, exceeding expectations during the holiday period [11][12] - The fourth quarter marked the third consecutive quarter of comparable store growth, with the company successfully maintaining higher average unit retail (AUR) prices without a decline in unit sales [12][14] - Overall revenue from the identified 150 stores for closure is approximately $110 million, with many being marginally profitable or losing money [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has diversified its approach across wholesale, international, and retail channels, with all age categories outperforming expectations [11] - The DTC business accounted for about one-third of U.S. retail revenue, indicating a well-penetrated e-commerce operation [29] - The wholesale business is approximately $1 billion of the total $3 billion revenue, with a significant portion coming from exclusive brands developed for major retailers [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on attracting new consumers, particularly Gen Z parents, who are more open to higher-priced products [14][15] - The shift in consumer shopping behavior post-pandemic has led to a need for store closures and a focus on enhancing the brand's presence in relevant retail environments [22][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to invest in product design and demand creation to resonate with today's young consumers [6][8] - A strategic focus on brand identity is emphasized, allowing each brand to develop its unique identity rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach [41] - The company plans to close 150 underperforming stores while also remodeling and relocating stores to better serve consumers [22][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges posed by rising prices and tariffs but emphasizes the importance of maintaining brand value through quality and style [17][18] - The company expects to achieve growth in sales and earnings by 2026, focusing on long-term sustainable and profitable growth rather than short-term discounts [39][40] - Management is optimistic about the potential for growth in the wholesale business, particularly with key accounts that are focused on attracting new parents [32][33] Other Important Information - The company is enhancing its marketing investments to drive productivity and consumer engagement, particularly through social media and influencers [10][9] - The transition from private label to branded products on platforms like Amazon is seen as a growth opportunity for the company's core brands [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the biggest challenges noticed since the new CEO took over? - The CEO highlighted the need for investment in product design and demand creation to align with consumer expectations [6] Question: Can you elaborate on the holiday performance? - The CEO noted strong performance across all channels, with the ability to maintain higher prices without losing unit sales [11][12] Question: What is the strategy for store closures? - The company plans to close 150 stores identified as low-margin, with expectations of transferring some revenue to nearby locations [22][26] Question: How does e-commerce fit into the overall strategy? - E-commerce is a significant part of the business, accounting for about one-third of retail revenue, and is expected to grow as stores close [29] Question: What is the outlook for growth in 2026? - Management remains optimistic about achieving growth in sales and earnings by focusing on sustainable and profitable growth strategies [39][40]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has experienced three consecutive quarters of comparable store growth, indicating a positive trend in sales performance [11][41] - The average unit retail (AUR) has increased, with the company successfully maintaining higher prices without a degradation in unit sales, which is a significant achievement [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) business showed strong performance, with significant growth across all channels including wholesale and international [11] - The company has identified approximately 150 stores for closure, focusing on those with lower margins, which is expected to streamline operations and improve profitability [23][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has diversified its market approach, successfully attracting new consumers from higher household income brackets who are more open to premium pricing [14][15] - The wholesale business remains robust, with a focus on growing relationships with key accounts, particularly in the mass retail channel [34][39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to invest in product design and demand creation to resonate with today's young consumers, particularly Gen Z parents [6][8] - There is a strategic focus on enhancing brand identity for each of its brands, allowing them to develop independently rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach [43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the need for long-term, sustainable growth rather than growth driven by discounts or one-time events, emphasizing the importance of maintaining brand equity [42] - The company is optimistic about future growth, with expectations set for sales and earnings growth in 2026, supported by recent positive performance trends [40][41] Other Important Information - The company is transitioning its Amazon business from a private label to branded products, which is expected to enhance visibility and sales [36][38] - The supply chain team has successfully diversified sourcing to mitigate costs associated with tariffs, contributing to overall cost savings [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the biggest challenges faced by the company? - The company needs to invest in product design and demand creation to align with consumer expectations and preferences [6] Question: How does the company plan to approach reinvestment? - The company plans to gradually increase marketing investments while ensuring a good return on investment [8] Question: Can you elaborate on the pricing strategy? - The company aims to maintain a competitive pricing strategy while ensuring that quality and style remain integral to its value proposition [17][18] Question: What is the plan for store closures? - The company has identified 150 stores for closure, focusing on those that are marginally profitable, with a plan to transfer some revenue to other locations [23][27] Question: How does e-commerce fit into the overall strategy? - E-commerce currently accounts for about a third of U.S. retail revenue, and the company aims to enhance its omnichannel capabilities to meet consumer expectations [31][32]

Core Insights - Crude Value Insights provides an investment service and community focused on the oil and natural gas sector, emphasizing cash flow generation and growth potential [1] Group 1 - The service offers subscribers access to a model account with over 50 stocks, detailed cash flow analyses of exploration and production (E&P) firms, and live discussions about the sector [1]

Core Insights - Carter's, Inc. announced preliminary net sales figures for Q4 and fiscal 2025, indicating a high single-digit percentage increase in consolidated net sales year over year [1] - The company reported strong online demand as a primary driver for U.S. Retail net sales growth [1] Sales Performance - U.S. Retail net sales increased in the high single digits, with comparable retail sales in U.S. stores also showing improvement [2] - Average unit retail pricing rose by mid-single digits, while U.S. Wholesale net sales saw a low single-digit increase [2] - For the full fiscal year, consolidated net sales growth was in low single digits, with U.S. Retail segment net sales also increasing by a low single-digit percentage [3] International and Wholesale Sales - International sales achieved high single-digit growth, while U.S. Wholesale net sales declined by a low single-digit rate year over year [4] - The fiscal year included an extra operating week, contributing approximately $33 million in sales [4] Leadership Changes and Events - Carter's appointed David B. Tichiaz as chief brand officer, who will lead product design and merchandising teams [5] - The company will participate in a fireside chat at the ICR Conference on January 12, 2026, with a live broadcast available for viewers [5] Management Commentary - CEO Douglas C. Palladini noted tangible results from turnaround efforts, with fourth quarter comparable retail sales growing for the third consecutive quarter [6] - Higher average unit retail pricing and reduced promotional activity helped offset tariff pressures and support margins, contributing to revenue growth [7] Stock Performance - Carter's shares increased by 3.81% to $35.96 during premarket trading [8]

Financial Results - Carter's, Inc. will participate in a fireside chat at the ICR Conference 2026 on January 12, 2026, to discuss preliminary financial results[4] - The company expects to provide a range of consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending January 3, 2026[4] - Preliminary financial results will include data for U.S. Retail, U.S. Wholesale, and International segments for the same period[4]