I am rating Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN ) with a Buy and a $40 price target. Based on historical valuations of a 4.8x EV/EBITDA multiple, the company is undervalued, trading at roughly 4.1x. Before diving into the main points of this article, I will provideWith over two decades of experience, Jaime is a former sell-side and buy-side equity research analyst with deep and extensive knowledge of the energy and clean technology sector. He is a long-only fundamental analyst focusing on small to mid-cap companies. No ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Devon Energy's stock closed at $34.47, reflecting a +2.99% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's -0.27% loss on the same day [1] - The company is expected to report an EPS of $0.84, indicating a 40.43% decline year-over-year, while revenue is projected at $4.02 billion, a 2.66% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - For the full year, earnings are anticipated to be $3.94 per share and revenue $16.68 billion, representing changes of -18.26% and +4.67% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 2: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Devon Energy are crucial as they reflect the evolving business landscape, with positive revisions indicating confidence in performance [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimate changes, currently ranks Devon Energy at 3 (Hold), with a recent 8.09% decrease in the EPS estimate over the last 30 days [6] - The Zacks Rank has a strong historical performance, with 1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [6] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - Devon Energy has a Forward P/E ratio of 8.5, which is lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 10.86, indicating a valuation discount [7] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 2.48, aligning with the industry average PEG ratio of 2.48, which considers expected earnings growth [7] Group 4: Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 171, placing it in the bottom 31% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates industry strength based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Group 1 - The upstream shale oil and gas sector has experienced a significant downturn, with a 30% decline in oil prices since the beginning of the year, dropping from nearly $80 in mid-January [1] - Supply fears have been alleviated due to tariff-related tensions, impacting investor sentiment in the sector [1] - The Daily Drilling Report provides investment analysis for the oil and gas industry, including a model portfolio covering all segments of upstream oilfield activity and technical analysis to identify catalysts [1] Group 2 - Fluidsdoc is an expert in the upstream oil sector with 40 years of international experience across six continents and over twenty countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - Devon Energy's shares have increased by approximately 4.2% since the last earnings report, underperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend leading up to the next earnings release [1] Estimates Movement - Fresh estimates for Devon Energy have trended downward over the past month, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 13.65% [2] VGM Scores - Devon Energy currently holds a strong Growth Score of A, but has a low Momentum Score of F. The stock also received an A grade for value, placing it in the top quintile for this investment strategy. The aggregate VGM Score for the stock is A, which is significant for investors not focused on a single strategy [3] Outlook - The overall trend of estimates for Devon Energy has been downward, indicating a shift in expectations. The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [4] Industry Performance - Devon Energy is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry. Another player in this sector, Viper Energy Partners, has seen a 2% gain over the past month, reporting revenues of $245 million for the last quarter, which is a year-over-year increase of 19.3% [5] Viper Energy Estimates - Viper Energy is projected to report earnings of $0.35 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 42.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Viper Energy has changed by -10.3% over the last 30 days, resulting in a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of D [6]

Group 1 - Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE: DVN) is currently trading near $30, reflecting a decline in energy prices [1] - The company is experiencing volatility in energy prices, which will impact short-term pricing [1] - The price of oil is expected to stabilize, suggesting that current low prices may not persist [1]

The companies operating in the  Zacks Oil and Gas Exploration and Production – United States industry play a critical role in the nation's energy landscape. It involves locating underground or underwater oil and gas reserves, drilling wells, and extracting raw hydrocarbons for processing and distribution. The United States is one of the world's leading producers of oil and natural gas, with key production regions including the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, Bakken Formation, and the Gulf of Mexico. Technologica ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions [3]. Group 1 - The analysis is intended for informational purposes and should not be considered professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear statement that past performance does not guarantee future results, highlighting the inherent uncertainties in investment [4]. - The article expresses that the views or opinions may not reflect those of the platform as a whole, indicating a diversity of perspectives among analysts [4].

Core Viewpoint - Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) has shown a year-to-date stock gain of 1.6%, contrasting with a 22.8% decline in the Zacks Oil & Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry and a 1.3% decline in the broader Zacks Oil and Energy sector [1] Performance Analysis - Over the past year, DVN's stock has declined by 32.7%, indicating a gradual recovery path, while Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) experienced a 31.7% decline [2] - Devon Energy's return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 8.71%, outperforming the industry average of 7.33% [15] Factors Contributing to Performance - The company benefits from a well-balanced commodity mix, focusing on oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, with a production replacement rate of 154% in 2024 [7] - DVN has a diversified, multi-basin portfolio of high-margin oil and gas assets, enhancing its asset base through strategic acquisitions [8] - The acquisition of Grayson Mill Energy's Williston Basin assets expanded net acreage from 123,000 to 430,000 acres, expected to triple production from 50,000 to 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d) [9] - A low-cost operating model supports profitability, with ongoing efforts to reduce drilling and completion expenses and streamline the workforce [10] Earnings Performance - DVN has reported strong earnings results, with an average earnings surprise of 6.09% over the last four quarters, despite missing expectations in the most recent quarter [12][13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DVN's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has declined by 15.23% and 18.2%, respectively, in the past 60 days [17] Valuation - Devon Energy's shares are currently trading at a trailing 12-month Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA TTM) of 3.61X, significantly lower than the industry average of 9.39X, indicating an inexpensive valuation [20] Summary - Devon Energy's multi-basin assets and balanced exposure to various commodities contribute positively to its performance, with a better return than the industry and an attractive valuation [21]

Core Insights - Devon Energy reported revenue of $4.45 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 23.8% [1] - The company's EPS was $1.21, slightly up from $1.16 in the same quarter last year, but below the consensus estimate of $1.27, resulting in an EPS surprise of -4.72% [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.36 billion, indicating a positive surprise of +2.05% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total oil equivalent production was 815 million barrels per day, slightly below the average estimate of 817.2 million barrels [4] - Average daily oil production was 388 million barrels, exceeding the average estimate of 383.85 million barrels [4] - Average daily gas production reached 1,346 million cubic feet, surpassing the estimate of 1,329.95 million cubic feet [4] - Average daily NGL production was 203 million barrels, below the estimate of 211.1 million barrels [4] - Marketing and midstream revenues were reported at $1.42 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $1.27 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +28.1% [4] - Revenues from oil, gas, and NGL sales totaled $3.13 billion, slightly above the estimate of $3.10 billion, marking an 18.9% year-over-year increase [4] - Oil revenues were $2.41 billion, slightly below the estimate of $2.43 billion [4] - NGL revenues were reported at $403 million, also below the estimate of $407.79 million [4] - The company reported a loss of $98 million from oil, gas, and NGL derivatives, contrasting with the average estimate of a $17.88 million gain, representing a year-over-year decline of -32.4% [4] Stock Performance - Devon Energy's shares have returned +15.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a +3.8% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Devon Energy has successfully positioned itself as a low-cost, efficient U.S. onshore oil and gas producer, allowing it to generate substantial free cash flow and withstand lower oil prices [1][8]. Production and Financial Performance - In the first quarter, Devon Energy produced an average of 388,000 barrels of oil per day, exceeding its production guidance by 5,000 barrels [3]. - The company's total output averaged 815,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, benefiting from strong performance in the Rockies and Eagle Ford regions [3]. - Devon achieved $1.9 billion in operating cash flow, a 17% increase from the previous quarter, and generated $1 billion in free cash flow [4]. Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to reduce an additional $1 billion in costs over the next two years, enhancing its cash generation capabilities [2]. - Devon returned $464 million to shareholders through dividends and $301 million through share repurchases, while increasing its cash balance by $388 million to $1.2 billion [5]. Strategic Priorities and Future Outlook - CEO Clay Gaspar emphasized the company's focus on operational excellence, financial strength, and shareholder rewards as key strategic priorities [6]. - A business optimization plan is expected to deliver $1 billion in annual pre-tax cash flow improvements by the end of next year, allowing for a reduction in capital spending by $100 million [6]. - Despite the cut in capital spending, Devon increased its production guidance for the year, expecting oil output to average between 382,000 and 388,000 barrels per day, a 1% increase from the initial outlook [6]. Market Positioning - Devon Energy's strategy of enhancing efficiency positions it well to navigate volatile oil markets, making it a high-quality oil stock to hold throughout the oil market cycle [8].