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Phillips 66(PSX) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-04 18:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, reported earnings were $2.9 billion or $7.17 per share, while adjusted earnings were $1 billion or $2.47 per share, reflecting a flat performance compared to the previous quarter [10][11] - Capital spending for the quarter was $682 million, with operating cash flow generated at $2.8 billion, including a $708 million working capital benefit due to inventory reduction [12][13] - Net debt to capital ratio stood at 38%, with $756 million returned to shareholders, including $274 million in share repurchases [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company adjusted earnings were flat at $1 billion, with sequential improvements in Refining, Renewable Fuels, and Midstream, offset by decreases in Chemicals and Marketing and Specialties [11][12] - Midstream adjusted EBITDA increased by 40% since 2022, reaching approximately $1 billion in Q4 2025, driven by higher volumes despite lower margins [6][11] - Refining results benefited from the acquisition of WRB, with higher realized margins in the Gulf Coast, while Marketing and Specialties results decreased due to the sale of a 65% interest in the Germany and Austria retail marketing business [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company increased its exposure to Canadian heavy crude differentials by 40% following the acquisition of WRB, with differentials widening by approximately $4 a barrel since the acquisition announcement [4][5] - The worldwide crude utilization rate is expected to be in the low 90s for Q1 2026, with turnaround expenses projected between $170 million and $190 million [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on safe, reliable operations, continuous improvement, and disciplined capital allocation to maximize shareholder returns [3][17] - Strategic actions in 2025 included acquiring the remaining 50% interest in the WRB joint venture and idling the Los Angeles refinery, which is expected to positively influence costs [4][15] - The company aims to achieve an adjusted controllable cost per barrel of approximately $5.50 by the end of 2027, with ongoing initiatives to reduce costs and improve reliability [4][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the refining sector, anticipating that demand will continue to grow in 2026, with challenges in meeting that demand due to low refinery additions [79] - The company highlighted a positive inflection point in results for 2025, with expectations for continued improvement and momentum in 2026 [17][81] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining investor trust and delivering consistent results in a competitive environment [17] Other Important Information - The company plans to add a gas plant approximately every 12-18 months, with the Iron Mesa gas plant expected to be operational in early 2027 [8] - The Western Gateway project is in the scoping and design phase, with positive feedback from prospective customers and regulatory support [61][66] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for Mid-Continent products and feedstock opportunities post-WRB acquisition - Management noted strong integration between refining, midstream, and marketing assets, with a robust demand profile expected in PADD 2, benefiting from widening heavy dips [20] Question: 2026 priorities on cost outlook - Management indicated a target of $5.50 per barrel for controllable refining costs, with continuous improvement initiatives expected to drive down costs further [26] Question: Turnaround management and utilization rates - Management confirmed a relatively light turnaround cycle for 2026, with costs slightly increasing due to the inclusion of WRB assets, but overall guidance remains stable [32] Question: Midstream growth outlook and potential for stock buybacks - Management outlined a framework for returning over 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders, with expectations for significant debt reduction and share buybacks [36] Question: Refining macro outlook for 2026 - Management expressed bullish sentiment for refining margins in 2026, citing expected demand growth and low unplanned turnarounds [79][81] Question: Likelihood of increased ethane rejection in the Permian - Management does not foresee a material change in ethane rejection due to new gas pipelines, expecting continued balance in supply and demand [85]
VXUS: Temporary Alpha
Seeking Alpha· 2026-02-03 21:04
It's been a challenge to find alpha in recent months. The Nasdaq ( QQQ ) has not made a new high since October, momentum stocks ( SPMO ) are flat, and some of 2025's best trades in nuclear ( NGLMy approach is long-term and I focus on investing in macro ideas through low risk ETFs and CEFs. I have traded stocks and currencies for nearly ten years and currently run a family fund with my partner and fellow SA contributor Andrew McElroy. I also invest in real estate and am a freelance writer and contributor to ...
Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting EOG Resources Stock Will Climb or Sink?
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-02 11:39
The Houston, Texas-based EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is a premier oil and gas producer with a footprint stretching across major shale basins and Trinidad. Valued at roughly $60.8 billion, the company controls about 535,000 net acres in Eagle Ford and 160,000 in Dorado, while concentrating on high-return Wolfcamp, Bone Spring, and Leonard plays spanning oil, NGLs, and natural gas. Over the past 52 weeks, EOG Resources’ shares slipped 13.6%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which rose 14.3%. The sho ...
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Price Target Raised at Piper Sandler
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-30 17:53
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) is included among the 10 Best American Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Price Target Raised at Piper Sandler Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) is an independent exploration and production company with assets primarily in the United States, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. On January 28, Piper Sandler analyst Mark Lear slightly nudged up the firm’s price target on Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) from $46 to ...
原油系列深度(二十二):2026 年油价怎么看?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-30 06:38
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and gas industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Insights - The supply side will remain tight, which is a dominant factor for oil prices in 2026, while the demand side shows resilience. The willingness to increase production in shale oil is limited due to insufficient intent and questionable capacity. OPEC's strong intention to cut production to support prices is evident, and geopolitical tensions may impact production and exports from oil-producing countries [3][6][7][9] Supply and Demand Analysis - In 2025, the international oil price exhibited a "N" shaped trend due to weak supply and demand affected by geopolitical disturbances. The price dropped from $74.64 per barrel to $60.23 per barrel, then rose to $78.85 per barrel before falling again to $60.85 per barrel by the end of the year [20] - For 2026, the supply side is expected to remain tight, with a slight easing in supply-demand balance compared to Q4 2025. The oil price is projected to stabilize between $60 and $65 per barrel, excluding geopolitical premiums [9][6] - The U.S. shale oil breakeven price has significantly increased by 25% to $65 per barrel compared to Q1 2018, limiting the ability to increase production. The efficiency of new wells is improving slowly, and the number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells has decreased significantly [25][35][41] - OPEC's ability to control prices through production cuts has strengthened, especially as U.S. production growth has not rebounded to previous levels. OPEC is likely to maintain a certain level of production cuts to support prices [7][61] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving countries like Iran, may severely impact production and exports. The U.S. has indicated intentions to sanction entities assisting Iran in illegal oil sales, which could further influence oil supply and prices [67][68][72] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, and any disruption could significantly affect global oil prices due to the high dependency of major oil-exporting countries on this passage [72][74] Demand Forecast - Global oil demand is expected to stabilize in 2025, with a slight decrease in growth to approximately 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026. The demand is supported by economic policies in India and resilient demand in the U.S. [8][30]
Woodside Energy Releases Fourth Quarter Report for Period Ended 31 December 2025
Businesswire· 2026-01-28 01:56
Core Viewpoint - Woodside Energy Group has reported strong production performance in 2025, achieving record annual production of 198.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), driven by high reliability at key facilities and progress on major projects [2][11]. Production and Financial Performance - The company provided guidance for 2025 production between 192 - 197 MMboe, with a preliminary result of 198.8 MMboe, indicating a strong performance across its assets [1]. - Unit production costs are expected to be around $7.6 - 8.1 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), with a preliminary estimate of approximately $7.8 [1]. - Revenue for Q4 2025 was reported at $3,035 million, a decrease of 10% from Q3 2025 and a 13% decline year-over-year [11]. - Total production for 2025 was 198.8 MMboe, a 3% increase from 193.9 MMboe in 2024 [11]. Project Developments - The Scarborough Energy Project is 94% complete and on track for first LNG cargo in Q4 2026, with hook-up activities underway [3]. - The Beaumont New Ammonia project achieved first production in December 2025, with plans for lower-carbon ammonia production in the second half of 2026 [4]. - The Louisiana LNG Project's foundation phase is 22% complete, targeting first LNG in 2029 [5]. Strategic Partnerships and Agreements - Woodside entered a strategic partnership with Williams, selling a 10% interest in Louisiana LNG HoldCo and an 80% operating interest in PipelineCo, with Williams contributing approximately $1.9 billion in capital expenditure [6]. - Long-term agreements for conventional ammonia supply from Beaumont have been finalized, with deliveries set to commence in 2026 [5]. Operational Highlights - The company achieved 100% reliability at Pluto LNG for the second half of 2025, contributing to strong production levels [2]. - The North West Shelf Project's Greater Western Flank Phase 4 was approved, extending production by about one year with an internal rate of return of approximately 30% [8]. - Woodside successfully bid on eight exploration blocks in the Gulf of America, enhancing its exploration portfolio [9]. Future Guidance - For 2026, Woodside expects production volumes of 172 - 186 MMboe, reflecting planned downtime at Pluto [10]. - Capital expenditure for 2026 is projected at $4,500 million, excluding final acquisition payments for Beaumont New Ammonia [35].
Range Announces Conference Call to Discuss Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results
Globenewswire· 2026-01-27 21:35
FORT WORTH, Texas, Jan. 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- RANGE RESOURCES CORPORATION (NYSE: RRC) announced today that its fourth quarter 2025 financial results news release will be issued Tuesday, February 24 after the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. A conference call to review the financial results is scheduled on Wednesday, February 25 at 9:00 a.m. ET (8:00 a.m. CT). A webcast of the call may be accessed at www.rangeresources.com. The webcast will be archived for replay on the Company's websi ...
SandRidge Energy's Operational Momentum Builds on Cherokee Gains
ZACKS· 2025-12-24 19:26
Company Performance - SandRidge Energy, Inc. has gained 34.7% over the past year, outperforming the industry's decline of 26.8% and the S&P 500's return of 15.8% [1] - The company reported a solid third-quarter performance with average production rising 12% year over year to 19 MBoe per day, and oil output increasing by 49% [3][4] Financial Highlights - Total revenues from oil, natural gas, and NGL increased by 32% year over year to $39.8 million, with net income reported at $16 million, or 44 cents per basic share [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $27.3 million, reflecting benefits from scale and production mix improvements [4] Cherokee Development Program - The ongoing one-rig Cherokee development program has been a major contributor to the quarter's performance, with four wells achieving average peak 30-day initial production rates of 2,000 gross Boe per day, with approximately 43% oil content [5][7] - The first well in the program produced over 275,000 gross Boe in its first 170 days, reinforcing confidence in reservoir quality [8] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - SandRidge Energy ended the quarter with $102.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, maintaining no outstanding debt obligations, which provides flexibility for funding development projects [9] - Cash at quarter-end equaled $2.80 per common share, indicating a strong liquidity position [9] Shareholder Returns - The board declared a dividend of 12 cents per share, payable on November 28, 2025, and the company repurchased 0.6 million shares for $6.4 million in the first nine months of 2025 [10][11] Capital Discipline and Growth Strategy - The company focuses on efficiently growing its asset base while allocating capital to high-return projects, including continued Cherokee development and evaluating M&A opportunities [12] - Management retains the flexibility to adjust capital activity based on commodity price fluctuations [12] Industry Outlook - The 2026 outlook suggests a softer oil-price environment with Brent crude averaging $55 per barrel, while natural gas fundamentals are expected to be stronger with Henry Hub prices averaging $4.01 per MMBtu [13][14] - Rising LNG exports are projected to increase to 16 Bcf/d in 2026, potentially providing additional demand support for U.S. natural gas [13]
APA Corporation: Deep-Value Energy Stock
Acquirersmultiple· 2025-12-19 02:33
Core Viewpoint - APA Corporation is identified as a potentially undervalued stock in the energy sector, with strong cash generation capabilities and a diversified asset base [1][10]. Business Overview - APA is a diversified exploration and production company with a balanced portfolio of crude oil, natural gas, and NGL assets across multiple geographies [2]. - The company's strategy focuses on efficient exploration, tight operational expenditure control, and reinvesting cash flow into high-return drilling locations [2]. Production and Financial Performance - APA's production mix and flexible capital program enable rapid adjustments to commodity prices, consistently generating meaningful free cash flow even in volatile markets [3]. - For the trailing twelve months (TTM), APA reported revenue of approximately US$ 9.64 billion, operating income of US$ 2.94 billion, and a net income of about US$ 1.51 billion, with operating and net margins of approximately 30% and 15-16% respectively [6]. Valuation Metrics - The intrinsic value to price (IV/P) ratio for APA is 1.20, indicating that the intrinsic value is estimated to be around 20% higher than the current market price, suggesting moderate undervaluation [4][10]. - The Acquirer's Multiple (AM) for APA is 4.80, placing it in deep value territory among mid-cap exploration and production companies [5][10]. Balance Sheet Strength - APA has cash and equivalents of approximately US$ 475 million, total debt of about US$ 4.59 billion, and net debt of around US$ 4.01 billion, with shareholders' equity at approximately US$ 5.9 billion [7]. - The company maintains adequate liquidity and strong free cash flow, supporting ongoing development and shareholder returns [7]. Capital Returns - APA paid approximately US$ 364 million in dividends over the TTM and engages in share buybacks, particularly during periods of undervaluation [9]. - The balanced approach to capital returns, combined with a strong free cash flow of nearly US$ 2 billion annually, enhances per-share value [9][10]. Conclusion - APA Corporation is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity in the energy sector, characterized by its diversified asset base, strong profitability, and disciplined capital allocation strategy [10][11].
Why Is Expand Energy (EXE) Up 18.3% Since Last Earnings Report?
ZACKS· 2025-11-27 17:31
Core Viewpoint - Expand Energy reported strong earnings for Q3 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of 97 cents, surpassing estimates, while revenues missed expectations but showed significant year-over-year growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for Q3 2025 were 97 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 88 cents, and up from 16 cents in the same quarter last year [2]. - Total revenues from 'natural gas, oil and NGL' were $1.8 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2 billion but significantly higher than $407 million from the previous year [3]. - Average daily production was reported at 7,333 million cubic feet of gas equivalent (MMcfe/day), a 177% increase from 2,647 MMcfe/day year-over-year, exceeding the consensus estimate [4]. Production & Pricing - Natural gas production for the quarter was 6,721 MMcfe/day, up 154% year-over-year, also surpassing the consensus mark [4]. - The average sales price for natural gas was $2.81 per Mcf, a 12% increase from $2.51 per Mcf last year, but below the consensus estimate of $2.84 [5]. Costs & Expenses - Total operating expenses rose to $2.2 billion from $803 million in the prior year, driven by increased gathering, processing, and transportation costs [6]. - Marketing costs increased to $659 million from $192 million year-over-year [6]. Cash Flow & Financial Position - Cash flow from operations was $1.2 billion, up from $422 million in the prior year, with capital expenditures totaling $775 million, resulting in free cash flow of $426 million [8]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company had $613 million in cash and cash equivalents and long-term debt of $5 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 21.6% [8]. Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, Expand Energy targets average daily production between 7,200-7,300 MMcfe, and for the full year 2025, between 7,100-7,200 MMcfe [9]. - Capital spending is budgeted between $685 million and $765 million for the upcoming quarter, and between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion for 2025 [10]. Market Sentiment - There has been an upward trend in estimates for Expand Energy, indicating positive market sentiment [11]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [13].