Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Neutral" to Brinker International Inc [2][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong sales performance in F4Q with revenues of $1.21 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $1.16 billion, but notes a disappointing adjusted EBITDA of $141.8 million compared to the expected $144.7 million [2]. - The guidance for FY25 includes projected revenues of $4.55-4.62 billion, adjusted EPS of $4.35-4.75, and capital expenditures of $195-215 million, which are mixed compared to consensus expectations [2]. - The report anticipates a negative market reaction due to lower-than-expected earnings flow-through despite strong sales, as well as FY25 EPS guidance falling below investor expectations [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - F4Q adjusted EBITDA was $141.8 million, missing consensus of $144.7 million, with restaurant margins at 15.2% versus the expected 15.5% [2]. - Revenues for F4Q were $1.21 billion, surpassing the consensus of $1.16 billion [2]. - Adjusted EPS for F4Q was $1.61, below the consensus estimate of $1.72 [2]. Guidance and Projections - FY25 revenue guidance is set at $4.55-4.62 billion, compared to the consensus of $4.49 billion [2]. - Adjusted EPS guidance for FY25 is $4.35-4.75, below the consensus of $4.80 [2]. - Capital expenditures are projected at $195-215 million, slightly above the consensus of $193.1 million [2]. Market Expectations - The report suggests that the stock may react negatively due to the disappointing earnings flow-through and lower-than-expected EPS guidance for FY25 [2]. - The focus for the upcoming earnings call will likely be on traffic and sales trends, as well as further details on FY25 guidance [2].

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Brinker reported total revenues of $1.208 billion for Q4, with consolidated comp sales of positive 13.5% [18] - Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was $1.61, up from $1.39 last year [18] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA totaled $444 million, a 28% increase versus the prior year [23] - Chili's comp sales came in at positive 14.8%, driven by price (8.1%), positive mix (0.8%), and positive traffic (5.9%) [19] - Maggiano's reported 2.5% positive comp sales for Q4, driven by price (9.2%) and positive mix (2.2%), offset by negative traffic (-8.9%) [19] - Restaurant operating margin for Q4 was 15.2%, a 180 basis points improvement year-over-year [21] Business Line Performance - Chili's AUVs grew by $440,000 to $3.6 million over the past two fiscal years [5] - Chili's menu has 22% fewer items than two years ago, simplifying operations [5] - Core 4 menu items (margaritas, Chicken Crispers, burgers, and fajitas) have seen significant improvements, with margarita sales doubling over $10 price points [9] - Fajitas platform, a $200 million business, will be relaunched in Q4 with improved recipes and new menu merchandising [13] Market Performance - Chili's outperformed the industry in Q4 with 14.8% sales growth and 5.9% traffic growth, 15.6 points better than the industry on sales and 9.4 points better on traffic [12] - July sales for Chili's were in the high single digits, including positive traffic, maintaining a 13% gap to the casual dining industry in sales and 8% in traffic [24] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focused on improving 4-wall economics through operational simplification, technology investments, and labor and facility improvements [4][6][7] - Brinker is leveraging a barbell pricing strategy to offer both value and premium options, maintaining a balance between low-price and high-price menu items [10][24] - The company plans to continue driving traffic through advertising, superior value, and food innovation, with a focus on the Big Smasher and fajitas relaunch in FY25 [13][16] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the success of the turnaround strategy, with significant improvements in guest experience and operational efficiency [4][8] - The company expects FY25 annual revenues in the range of $4.55 billion to $4.62 billion, with adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $4.35 to $4.75 [25] - Wage rate inflation is expected in the mid-single digits, and commodity inflation in the low-single digits [25] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in technology, including Ziosk pay-at-the-table technology and AI labor forecasting, which have improved reliability and reduced errors [7] - Brinker has also invested in labor and facilities, leading to record food grade scores and improved guest experience [8] - The company plans to remove curbside service by the end of Q1 to streamline off-premise business execution [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Chris O'Cull (Stifel) - Margin pressure in FY25 guidance - The margin pressure is driven by wage rate inflation, commodity inflation, and incremental investments in labor ($15M-$20M) and media ($15M-$18M) [27] Question: Dennis Geiger (UBS) - Top line outlook for FY25 - The company expects mid-single-digit same-store sales growth, with pricing in the 4%-5% range and traffic flat to slightly positive [32] - The company has baked in a 4%-5% decline in industry traffic into its assumptions [33] Question: Jeffrey Bernstein (Barclays) - Competitive environment and consumer stickiness - The company is seeing new guests return, with 18% of guests eating on the $10.99 tier and 80% on full-price menu items [40] - The barbell pricing strategy is working, with no evidence of overpricing on the regular menu [44] Question: David Palmer (Evercore ISI) - Restaurant expenses and $10.99 strategy - Restaurant repairs were up $16M year-over-year, and advertising was up $14M [47] - The company plans to refresh the $10.99 message with new product news in the back half of FY25 [50][52] Question: Andrew Strelzik (BMO) - Listening sessions and traffic growth - The company is focusing on empowering restaurant teams to raise the bar on performance and guest experience [54] - Traffic growth is broad-based across all demographics, with the company winning market share [57] Question: Jeff Farmer (Gordon Haskett) - Restaurant-level margin and G&A - The company expects 30-50 basis points of ROM improvement in FY25 [58] - G&A is expected to increase by $5M-$7M due to ERP system transition and team growth [59] Question: Brian Vaccaro (Raymond James) - TikTok and influencer marketing - The company attributes 60% of May's performance to advertising and 40% to TikTok going viral [63] - The company has increased investment in TikTok and influencer marketing, driving younger consumers to Chili's [66][68] Question: John Ivankoe (JPMorgan) - Advertising and CapEx - The company is increasing advertising spend but has baked in a 4%-5% industry traffic decline, which could limit profitability upside [71] - CapEx for FY25 will be similar to FY24, with a shift from R&M to reimage spending and new restaurant development [73] Question: Eric Gonzalez (KeyBanc) - Recent trends and capital allocation - The company did not delay marketing windows and saw a tail effect from previous advertising [78] - Capital allocation for FY25 will focus on investing in the business, paying down debt, and share buybacks to offset dilution [81] Question: Brian Mullan (Piper Sandler) - Development and Maggiano's priorities - The company plans to open 10-12 new Chili's restaurants in FY25, with potential to accelerate to 15 [83] - Maggiano's is focusing on simplifying operations and elevating the guest experience, with new food and beverage innovation coming in September [85][87]

Brinker International (EAT) shares were down over -14% this morning after posting mixed results for its fiscal fourth quarter. Still, Brinker's stock is sitting on +60% gains this year as the operator of Chili's Bar & Grill and Maggiano's Little Italy. Considering its stellar year-to-date performance, investors may be wondering if the post-earnings dip is a buying opportunity. To that point, Brinker has vastly outperformed the broader indexes and the Zacks RetailRestaurants Market including two of its top i ...

Growth stocks are attractive to many investors, as above-average financial growth helps these stocks easily grab the market's attention and produce exceptional returns. But finding a great growth stock is not easy at all. That's because, these stocks usually carry above-average risk and volatility. In fact, betting on a stock for which the growth story is actually over or nearing its end could lead to significant loss. However, the Zacks Growth Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which look ...

Financial Performance - Brinker International reported a 13 5% year-over-year increase in same-store sales for Q4 2024, driven by a 6% jump in restaurant traffic and price increases [2] - Full-year revenue reached $4 4 billion, up nearly 7% from fiscal 2023 [2] - Adjusted diluted EPS for the full year was $4 10, below analyst expectations, and management forecasts a maximum of $4 75 for fiscal 2025, also below expectations [3] Stock Performance - Brinker's stock dropped approximately 13% following the earnings report, despite strong financial metrics [1] - Prior to the Q4 report, the stock had risen roughly 60% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [4] - The stock currently trades at about 13 times its forward adjusted profit expectations, which is considered reasonable [5] Business Outlook - Brinker is viewed as a modestly growing, mature business, making its recent stock gains somewhat unexpected [4] - The company's ability to sustain higher revenue through increased menu prices, as seen in fiscal 2024, may not be sustainable in the long term [5] - Continued strong restaurant traffic could provide upside potential for the stock in future quarters and years [5]

Brinker International Today EAT Brinker International $61.50 -8.90 (-12.64%) 52-Week Range $28.23 ▼ $76.02 P/E Ratio 18.25 Price Target $57.34 Add to Watchlist Brinker International's NYSE: EAT stock price fell 15% following its Q4 release, which presented an appetizing dip for investors to snack on. Weaker-than-expected earnings and softer-than-expected guidance caused the dip, but that is the worst news to be found. The remaining details prove the company's strategy is working. Brinker International is gr ...

Core Insights - Brinker International's shares declined after missing fourth-quarter earnings estimates and providing a lower-than-expected full-year guidance due to rising expenses [1][2] - The company reported a year-over-year increase in operating costs and expenses by 11.7% [1][3] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter, Brinker posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.61, which was $0.14 below analysts' expectations [2] - Revenue increased by 12.3% year-over-year to $1.21 billion, surpassing forecasts [2] Cost Analysis - Operating costs and expenses rose to $1.14 billion, reflecting an 11.7% increase [3] - Excluding depreciation and general expenses, restaurant expenses increased by 10.8% to $910.5 million [3] Sales Performance - Comparable sales for Chili's restaurants increased by 14.8%, contributing to a 13.5% overall increase for the company [4] - Maggiano's saw a 2.5% increase in comparable restaurant sales [4] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2025, the adjusted EPS outlook is projected between $4.35 and $4.75, falling short of the consensus estimate of $4.84 [5] - Revenue outlook for fiscal 2025 is estimated between $4.55 billion and $4.62 billion, exceeding forecasts [5] - As of 11 a.m. ET Wednesday, Brinker stock was down 11.3% at $62.45, although shares are up approximately 45% year-to-date [5]

Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) reported mixed fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues beating the same. However, the top and the bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis. Following the mixed results, the stock declined 12% in the pre-market trading session on Aug 14. Earnings & Revenue Discussion In the quarter under review, Brinker reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.61, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65. The co ...

Brinker International (EAT) reported $1.21 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.3%. EPS of $1.61 for the same period compares to $1.39 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of +4.33% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.16 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.65, the EPS surprise was -2.42%. While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wa ...

Core Viewpoint - Brinker International reported quarterly earnings of $1.61 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 per share, but showing an increase from $1.39 per share a year ago [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.21 billion for the quarter ended June 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.33%, compared to $1.08 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - Over the last four quarters, Brinker International has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times and has also topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2][3] Stock Performance - Brinker International shares have increased approximately 63% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 13.9% [4] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating expectations for continued outperformance in the near future [7] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.59 on revenues of $1.06 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.73 on revenues of $4.51 billion [8] - The trend for estimate revisions ahead of the earnings release was favorable, suggesting potential positive adjustments in earnings expectations [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Restaurants industry, to which Brinker International belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [9] - Another company in the same industry, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, is expected to report a significant year-over-year decline in earnings, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.16, reflecting a -35.2% change [10]