Core Viewpoint - Ecopetrol S.A. is set to release its financial and operational results for Q2 2025 on August 12, 2025, followed by a virtual conference call on August 13, 2025, to discuss these results [1][2]. Company Overview - Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia and a major integrated energy company in the Americas, employing over 19,000 people [3]. - The company is responsible for over 60% of Colombia's hydrocarbon production and holds leading positions in transportation, logistics, refining, petrochemicals, and gas distribution [3]. - Ecopetrol has acquired 51.4% of ISA's shares, expanding its involvement in energy transmission and real-time systems management, as well as road concessions [3]. - Internationally, Ecopetrol has operations in strategic basins across the Americas, including drilling and exploration in the U.S. (Permian basin and Gulf of Mexico), Brazil, and Mexico [3]. - Through ISA and its subsidiaries, Ecopetrol holds significant positions in power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia, as well as road concessions in Chile and interests in the telecommunications sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - Ecopetrol has been trending in stock searches, with recent performance showing a decline of -10.2% over the past month, contrasting with the S&P 500's increase of +5.4% [2] Earnings Estimates - For the current quarter, Ecopetrol is projected to report earnings of $0.52 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +23.8% [5] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $1.62, indicating a decrease of -2.4% from the previous year [5] - For the next fiscal year, the earnings estimate is $1.6, showing a decline of -1.2% compared to the prior year [6] - The Zacks Rank for Ecopetrol is 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance in the near term [7] Revenue Growth - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $7.26 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of -12.7% [11] - Estimated revenues for the current fiscal year are $29.2 billion, indicating a decrease of -10.8%, while the next fiscal year's estimate is $28.59 billion, reflecting a -2.1% change [11] Last Reported Results - In the last reported quarter, Ecopetrol generated revenues of $7.5 billion, a year-over-year decrease of -6.1% [12] - The EPS for the same period was $0.36, down from $0.5 a year ago, with reported revenues falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.19 billion by -8.48% [12] Valuation - Ecopetrol is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [17]

Core Insights - Ecopetrol S.A. has acquired the Windpeshi wind power project from Enel S.p.A. for $50 million, located in La Guajira, Colombia [1][8] - The project has a total installed capacity of approximately 205 megawatts (MW) and is expected to generate around 1,006 gigawatt hours (GWh) of power annually, which will cover about 8-9% of Ecopetrol Group's energy needs [2][8] Project Overview - The Windpeshi project will consist of 41 turbines, each with a capacity of 5 MW [2] - The total development cost of the project is estimated at $350 million, part of Ecopetrol's broader investment plan [3] - Development is expected to commence before the end of 2025, with commercial operations projected to start by 2028 [3] Colombia's Clean Energy Targets - The Colombian government, under President Gustavo Petro, aims to transition from fossil fuels to a cleaner energy mix, including renewable sources like solar and wind [4] - The country faces challenges in advancing renewable energy projects, including resistance from indigenous communities and regulatory hurdles [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ecopetrol has successfully acquired 100% of Wind Autogeneración S.A.S. from Enel S.A.S., marking a significant step in its energy transition strategy and commitment to renewable energy projects in Colombia [1][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was approved by Ecopetrol's Board of Directors in December 2024 and has now been completed following the fulfillment of regulatory and anti-trust conditions [1]. - The integration of Wind Autogeneración S.A.S. into Ecopetrol's corporate structure has commenced [7]. Group 2: Windpeshi Project Overview - The Windpeshi project, located in La Guajira, will have an installed capacity of 205 MW and is expected to contribute an average of 1,006 GWh/year, which is approximately 8-9% of Ecopetrol Group's energy demand [2]. - The project aims to optimize energy costs and is projected to result in a decarbonization benefit of about 4.8 million tons of CO2 emissions, with estimated investments of nearly $350 million from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Group 3: Project Development Timeline - Ecopetrol plans to restart construction of the Windpeshi project by the end of 2025, with operations expected to begin before 2028 [4]. - The company intends to engage top-tier contractors for the development and construction phases [4]. Group 4: Community Engagement - Ecopetrol emphasizes the importance of engaging with the Wayuu indigenous communities affected by the project, coordinating efforts with national, regional, and local authorities [5]. Group 5: Strategic Positioning - The Windpeshi Project represents the beginning of Ecopetrol's non-conventional renewable energy initiatives in La Guajira, a region recognized for its potential in solar and wind energy development [6]. - Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia, responsible for over 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production and holds significant positions in various energy sectors across the Americas [8].

Core Viewpoint - Ecopetrol S.A. is facing a proposed tax adjustment and penalty from the Colombian Tax and Customs Authority (DIAN) amounting to COP 1.2 trillion, plus estimated interest of COP 0.5 trillion, related to VAT on diesel fuel imports from 2022 to 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Tax and Customs Issues - On June 3, 2025, DIAN notified Ecopetrol of Special Customs Requirement No. 525, indicating its intention to issue an official adjustment assessment related to VAT on diesel fuel imports [1]. - Ecopetrol formally opposed the proposed tax adjustment and penalty in its response submitted on July 1, 2025, highlighting differing legal interpretations between DIAN and the Company [2]. - Since January 2025, Ecopetrol has been making VAT payments on diesel and gasoline imports at a 19% rate, which does not affect its right to challenge DIAN's interpretation [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia and a major integrated energy company in the Americas, employing over 19,000 people [5]. - The Company is responsible for more than 60% of Colombia's hydrocarbon production and holds leading positions in petrochemicals and gas distribution [5]. - Ecopetrol has expanded its operations internationally, with drilling and exploration activities in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico, and holds significant positions in power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia [5].

Core Viewpoint - Ecopetrol S.A. has received authorization from the Financial Superintendency of Colombia to amend its bond issuance program, aligning it with the company's decarbonization and energy transition strategy while expanding capital market alternatives [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Program - The amendment formalized through Addendum No. 5 will be incorporated into the prospectus of Ecopetrol's local public bonds and commercial paper [2]. - Since the initial bond issuance in August 2013, totaling COP 900 billion, no additional issuances have occurred, allowing for potential future issuances up to COP 2.1 trillion [3]. - The company will inform the market of any future issuances under the program [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia and a major integrated energy company in the Americas, employing over 19,000 people [4]. - The company is responsible for over 60% of Colombia's hydrocarbon production and holds leading positions in petrochemicals and gas distribution [4]. - Ecopetrol has expanded its operations internationally, with interests in strategic basins in the U.S., Brazil, and Mexico, and holds significant positions in power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia [4]. Group 3: New Bond Features - The updated program will allow for the issuance of local public bonds linked to sustainable performance, including green, social, sustainable, and blue bonds [6]. - It will also enable bonds that allow in-kind payments by investors and the reopening of previous bond issuances [6]. - Additional features include bonds indexed to the UVR (Real Value Unit) and TRM (Representative Market Exchange Rate), as well as securities allocation through a book-building process [6].

Core Viewpoint - Ecopetrol S.A. has received an affirmation of its global credit rating at Ba1 with a stable outlook from Moody's, reflecting its strong position in the oil and gas sector in Colombia and Latin America [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Rating and Financial Strength - Moody's Ba1 global rating indicates Ecopetrol's leading role as Colombia's primary oil and gas producer and its significant power transmission operations [2]. - The global rating is three notches above the standalone rating due to government support through the phase-out of fuel subsidies and improved liquidity from reduced accounts receivable related to the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC) [3]. - The standalone rating highlights the stability of Ecopetrol's cash flow, bolstered by its power transmission subsidiary (ISA) and midstream affiliates, which contributed 18% to EBITDA in 2024 [4]. Group 2: Company Overview and Operations - Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia, responsible for over 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production and holding key positions in petrochemicals and gas distribution [4]. - The company has a 51.4% stake in ISA, engaging in energy transmission and managing real-time systems, along with road concessions [4]. - Internationally, Ecopetrol operates in strategic basins across the Americas, including the Permian basin and the Gulf of Mexico, and holds significant positions in power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia [4].

Core Points - Ecopetrol has successfully extended the agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. to reduce conversion fees for ADR issuance and cancellation by 50%, now valid through December 31, 2025 [1] - The initiative has received positive market reception, prompting Ecopetrol to ensure its continuation to support investor interests [2] Company Overview - Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia and a major integrated energy company in the Americas, employing over 18,000 people [2] - The company is responsible for over 60% of Colombia's hydrocarbon production and holds leading positions in petrochemicals and gas distribution [2] - Ecopetrol has acquired 51.4% of ISA's shares, expanding its involvement in energy transmission and other sectors [2] - Internationally, Ecopetrol has operations in strategic basins in the U.S. (Permian basin and Gulf of Mexico), Brazil, and Mexico, and holds significant positions in power transmission in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia [2]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Neutral" rating for BP and Eni, while it assigns a "Buy" rating to Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, GALP, OMV, and Cenovus Energy, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the global oil and gas sector is expected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% from 2024 to 2027, driven by increasing demand and recovering prices [10]. - The Brent front month price is projected to stabilize around $65.99 per barrel in 2025, while WTI is expected to be at $62.13 per barrel, reflecting a recovery from previous lows [7]. - Refining margins are anticipated to fluctuate, with European composite margins expected to average around $5.00 per barrel in 2025, indicating a challenging environment for refiners [7]. Summary by Sections Company Ratings and Projections - BP: Current price at 393.0, target price 400, with a 2% upside and a Neutral rating [10] - Chevron: Current price at 148.19, target price 177, with a 19% upside and a Buy rating [10] - ExxonMobil: Current price at 113.19, target price 130, with a 15% upside and a Buy rating [10] - Shell: Current price at 2,698, target price 2,900, with a 7% upside and a Buy rating [10] - TotalEnergies: Current price at 54.90, target price 60.0, with a 9% upside and a Buy rating [10] - Eni: Current price at 14.26, target price 13.0, with a -9% downside and a Neutral rating [10] - Cenovus Energy: Current price at 14.64, target price 25, with a 71% upside and a Buy rating [10] Market Assumptions - The report outlines macro assumptions for commodity prices, with Brent and WTI prices expected to stabilize in 2025 [7]. - The report also discusses refining margins, indicating a challenging environment for refiners with European margins projected at $5.00 per barrel [7]. Performance Metrics - The report includes performance metrics such as EV/DACF, FCF yield, and P/E ratios for major oil companies, providing a comprehensive view of their financial health and market positioning [10].

Company Overview - Ecopetrol is a Colombian-integrated oil company involved in exploration, production, transportation, and refining of fossil fuels [1] - The company's primary operating basins are located in Colombia and Ecuador, with additional interests in Brazil and the United States [1] Investment Focus - The company is characterized by sustained free cash flows, low levels of leverage, and sustainable debt over time [1] - It targets companies in distress with high recovery potential, particularly in the oil & gas, metals, and mining sectors [1] - The focus is on emerging markets that exhibit high margins and present good medium to long-term investment opportunities [1] Shareholder Value - The company maintains a solid pro-shareholder attitude, with ongoing buyback programs and dividend distributions [1]