Financial Performance - Excelerate Energy reported Adjusted EBITDA of $100.4 million in 1Q 2025, a 10% sequential increase from 4Q 2024[17, 28] - Adjusted Net Income for 1Q 2025 was $55.6 million, representing a 21% sequential increase from the previous quarter[17, 28] - Adjusted Earnings Per Share (diluted) for 1Q 2025 reached $0.49, a 23% sequential increase[17] - The company achieved a high operational reliability of 99.9% in 1Q 2025[17] Growth Strategy & Jamaica Acquisition - Excelerate Energy is focused on optimizing its core business to maximize shareholder value[19] - The company is growing its fleet through selective acquisitions and new vessel construction[21] - Excelerate Energy acquired an integrated LNG and power platform in Jamaica for just over $1 billion, expected to be immediately accretive to earnings per share[22, 34] - The Jamaica business includes a Clarendon CHP Plant, storage & distribution assets, and provides approximately 30 TBtu of annual LNG supply[23] Capital Structure & Outlook - Excelerate Energy completed an equity offering of 8 million shares at $26.50 per share, raising $212 million in gross proceeds[34] - The company closed an $800 million offering of 8% senior unsecured notes due in 2030[35] - The company revised its full year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $345 million - $365 million, exclusive of the pending Jamaica acquisition[38]

Financial Results - Excelerate Energy, Inc. announced a preliminary financial result for Q1 2025, with a term loan outstanding of $163.6 million as of December 31, 2024[7]. Credit Agreements - The company entered into a Fifth Amendment to its Senior Secured Credit Agreement, extending the maturity of the revolving facility to March 17, 2029, and increasing commitments to $500 million[5]. - The Fourth Amendment to the Credit Agreement included additional covenant baskets to permit the Pending Acquisition and incurrence of related debt[12]. Acquisitions - Excelerate Energy Limited Partnership plans to acquire New Fortress Energy, Inc.'s business in Jamaica for $1.055 billion, contingent upon certain conditions[5]. - The company intends to offer $700 million in Senior Notes due 2030, with proceeds to fund the Pending Acquisition and repay the Term Loan[10].

Company Overview - Excelerate Energy (EE) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.39, reflecting a +62.5% change [3][12] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $205.21 million, marking a 2.6% increase from the previous year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on May 7, 2025, and could influence stock movement based on whether actual results exceed or fall short of expectations [2] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 11.81% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +9.85% for Excelerate Energy, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11][10] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a hold position, which combined with the positive Earnings ESP suggests a potential earnings beat [11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Excelerate Energy exceeded the expected EPS of $0.32 by delivering $0.40, resulting in a +25% surprise [12] - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13] Industry Comparison - Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), another player in the alternative energy sector, is expected to report an EPS of $2.14 for the same quarter, reflecting a +17.6% year-over-year change, with revenues projected at $4.46 billion, down 27.7% from the previous year [17] - CEG's consensus EPS estimate has been revised up by 1.6% in the last 30 days, and it also has a positive Earnings ESP of 2.18%, indicating a likely earnings beat [18]

Core Viewpoint - Excelerate Energy is positioned well to continue its streak of beating earnings estimates, having consistently exceeded expectations in recent quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, Excelerate Energy reported earnings of $0.40 per share, surpassing the expected $0.32 per share, resulting in a surprise of 25% [2]. - In the previous quarter, the company reported $0.35 per share against an expectation of $0.32 per share, achieving a surprise of 9.38% [2]. - The average surprise for the last two quarters was 17.19% [1]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Excelerate Energy, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5][8]. - The current Earnings ESP for Excelerate Energy is +1.84%, suggesting analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [8]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6]. Group 3: Zacks Rank and Future Outlook - Excelerate Energy holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), which, combined with its positive Earnings ESP, indicates a high probability of another earnings beat [8]. - The next earnings report for Excelerate Energy is expected to be released on May 7, 2025 [8].

Core Insights - Investors in the Alternative Energy sector may consider Excelerate Energy (EE) and Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) as potential undervalued stocks [1] Valuation Metrics - Excelerate Energy has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), while Talen Energy Corporation has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a stronger earnings outlook for EE [3] - EE has a forward P/E ratio of 18.22 compared to TLN's 25.41, suggesting that EE is more attractively priced [5] - The PEG ratio for EE is 0.94, while TLN's PEG ratio is significantly higher at 3.41, indicating better expected earnings growth relative to its price for EE [5] - EE's P/B ratio is 1.49, while TLN's P/B ratio is 7.46, further highlighting EE's superior valuation metrics [6] - Overall, EE has a Value grade of B, while TLN has a Value grade of C, reflecting EE's stronger valuation metrics and estimate revision activity [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Excelerate Energy has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excelerate Energy for the fiscal year ending December 2025 is projected at $1.46 per share, reflecting a 15% increase from the previous year's reported figure [9]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excelerate Energy has risen by 1.2%, indicating a trend of increasing earnings estimates [9]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system is based solely on changes in a company's earnings picture, making it a reliable tool for investors to gauge stock performance [2][3]. - The system classifies stocks into five groups, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a 'Strong Buy' rating, highlighting Excelerate Energy's strong position in terms of earnings estimate revisions [10][11]. Market Implications - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 suggests that Excelerate Energy's improving earnings outlook could lead to increased buying pressure and a potential rise in its stock price [4][6]. - The correlation between earnings estimate revisions and stock price movements underscores the importance of tracking these revisions for investment decisions [7].

Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Department reported a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles rising by 37 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended March 21, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 25 Bcf increase [2]. - Despite bearish inventory data, natural gas prices rose, closing at $4.065, marking a 2% increase for the week and a 13.4% gain in the first quarter of 2025 [4]. - The market outlook remains positive, with U.S. natural gas inventories over 6% below the five-year average, supporting prices around $4/MMBtu in the near term [7]. Industry Overview - Natural gas stockpiles in the lower 48 states are currently at 1,744 Bcf, which is 557 Bcf (24.2%) below the 2024 level and 122 Bcf (6.5%) lower than the five-year average [3]. - The total supply of natural gas averaged 110.8 Bcf per day, with daily consumption rising to 107.7 Bcf, reflecting increased residential and commercial usage [3]. - The U.S. has become the world's largest LNG supplier, with exports averaging 16 Bcf per day, driven by European and Asian demand for American LNG [6]. Company Insights - **Expand Energy (EXE)**: The company has solidified its position as the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. following a merger, with a projected 422.7% year-over-year increase in 2025 earnings per share [8][10]. - **Excelerate Energy**: Specializing in LNG infrastructure, the company represents 20% of the global Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) fleet, with a projected 11.8% year-over-year growth in 2025 earnings per share [11][12]. - **The Williams Companies**: Positioned to benefit from long-term U.S. natural gas demand growth, the company has a projected 14.1% year-over-year growth in 2025 earnings per share [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Excelerate Energy Inc. has agreed to acquire New Fortress Energy Inc.'s assets in Jamaica for $1.055 billion, with the transaction expected to close by the June quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1: New Fortress Energy's Debt Reduction Strategy - The divestment is part of New Fortress Energy's strategy to optimize its asset portfolio and reduce its $8.4 billion debt burden by the end of 2024 [2] - New Fortress Energy paused shareholder dividend payments and engaged with bondholders regarding short-term debt maturities amid financial difficulties [2] Group 2: Transaction Details - The transaction includes NFE's LNG import terminal in Montego Bay, the Old Harbour offshore floating storage and regasification terminal, and a 150 MW Combined Heat and Power Plant in Clarendon [3] - Proceeds from the sale will be utilized to pay off corporate debt and meet general corporate needs [3] Group 3: New Fortress Energy's Role in Jamaica - New Fortress Energy has been instrumental in transitioning Jamaica's energy landscape from oil-based fuels to cleaner energy resources since entering the market in 2016 [4] - The company has collaborated with the government and local communities to enhance access to reliable and cost-effective clean energy [4] Group 4: Excelerate Energy's Strategic Position - The acquired assets align with Excelerate Energy's operational capabilities and will support existing LNG supply agreements [5] - The 150 MW Clarendon power plant, which supplies nearly 65% of Jamaica's electricity, has potential for expansion [5] - Jamaica's strategic location enhances Excelerate Energy's position as LNG export facilities in the region are on the rise [5] Group 5: Deleveraging Trends in the Energy Sector - The divestment aligns with broader deleveraging trends in the energy sector, where companies like Phillips 66 are also focusing on asset dispositions to strengthen their balance sheets [6] - Phillips 66 has committed to achieving $3 billion in asset divestitures in 2023 and aims to reduce total debt to $17 billion by 2025 [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full-year 2024, Excelerate Energy delivered record adjusted EBITDA of $348 million, exceeding the high end of guidance [10][28] - Net income for 2024 was $153 million, reflecting a 21% increase year-over-year [10][29] - Total debt, including finance leases, was $696 million, with cash and cash equivalents of $538 million, resulting in net debt of $158 million [30][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The earnings growth was attributed to successful recontracting of FSRUs at elevated market rates and optimization of the core regasification business [11][12] - The company recorded a reliability of 99.9% across its fleet, the highest in its history [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The supply/demand balance for FSRUs is expected to remain tight due to ongoing geoeconomic uncertainties, particularly in Europe [19][62] - The company delivered 272 cargoes of LNG in 2024, averaging about 2.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Excelerate Energy aims to expand its fleet and invest in core regasification while pursuing strategic initiatives for value creation [18][24] - The construction of a new build FSRU, Hull 3407, is on track for delivery in 2026, capable of delivering 1 billion cubic feet per day [19][20] - The company is also exploring LNG carrier acquisitions for conversion to FSRUs, which would provide flexibility and meet diverse market needs [22][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of the core business and the ability to capture LNG supply optimization opportunities for 2025 [35] - The anticipated tightness in the supply/demand balance for FSRUs is expected to drive demand for long-term contracts [62][92] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per share, consistent with previous dividends [33] - A $50 million share repurchase program was fully utilized, with plans to consider new authorizations in the future [32][81] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance - Management indicated that the guidance does not include potential growth opportunities outside of the FSRU fleet at this time [44] Question: Details on the LNG carrier acquisition - Management is assessing multiple vessels for acquisition, focusing on near-term needs and optimization opportunities [47][102] Question: Financial outlook for maintenance CapEx - All maintenance CapEx for 2025 is expected to be capitalized, with specific amounts guided [52] Question: Updates on Vietnam and Alaska projects - Management remains optimistic about opportunities in both regions, with ongoing discussions [73][70] Question: Stock repurchase plans - Management is pleased with the previous repurchase program and is considering future authorizations based on market conditions [80][81]

Business Operations and Contracts - Excelerate operates a fleet of 10 purpose-built FSRUs and has completed over 3,000 ship-to-ship transfers, delivering more than 7,300 billion cubic feet of natural gas through 16 regasification terminals[22]. - As of December 31, 2024, the minimum contracted cash flows under time charter and terminal use contracts amount to approximately $3.7 billion, with a weighted average remaining term of 6.5 years[35]. - In October 2023, Excelerate executed a 10-year time charter agreement with Petrobras for the Sequoia, commencing on January 1, 2024[34]. - Excelerate signed a 20-year SPA with Venture Global LNG in February 2023 to purchase 0.7 MTPA of LNG on a FOB basis, with the commitment starting once the facility becomes operational[40]. - A 15-year SPA was signed with Bangladesh Oil, Gas & Mineral Corporation in November 2023, with deliveries of 0.85 MTPA in 2026 and 2027, increasing to 1.0 MTPA from 2028 to 2040[41]. - Excelerate has a 15-year SPA with QatarEnergy starting in 2026, purchasing 0.85 MTPA in the first two years and 1.0 MTPA from 2028 to 2040[42]. - The company has a diversified LNG supply portfolio strategy to offer cost-effective LNG and natural gas products to customers[44]. - Excelerate is the largest provider of regasified LNG capacity in Argentina, Bangladesh, Finland, and the UAE, and one of the largest in Brazil and Pakistan[21]. - The company focuses on providing LNG solutions to assist markets in their decarbonization efforts while promoting economic growth[20]. - Excelerate's FSRUs can deliver natural gas at pipeline pressure with maximum send-out capacities ranging from 600 MMscf/d to 1,200 MMscf/d[27]. Market Demand and Growth - Global LNG demand is projected to increase from approximately 400 MTPA in 2023 to about 730 MTPA by 2050, highlighting the growing need for cleaner energy sources[45]. - The company operates one of the largest FSRU fleets for regasification, securing long-term, take-or-pay contracts that generate consistent revenue and cash flow with minimal exposure to commodity price volatility[45]. - The company plans to bring online a new-build FSRU in 2026 to support forecasted demand and aims to launch additional vessels as necessary for new natural gas infrastructure projects[52]. - The company is focused on developing a diversified LNG and natural gas portfolio to better manage local demand uncertainties and capture arbitrage opportunities[52]. Regulatory and Environmental Compliance - The IMO Greenhouse Gas Strategy aims to reduce GHG emissions from international shipping by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008 levels, with interim targets of at least 20% reduction by 2030 and 70% by 2040[65]. - The EU ETS requires shipping companies to reduce emissions by 65% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, with a phased-in compliance starting from 2024[66]. - FuelEU Maritime regulation mandates a gradual decrease in GHG emission intensity, requiring a 2% reduction in 2025 from the 2020 average, increasing annually to an 80% reduction by 2050[69]. - The company is subject to various environmental regulations, including limits on sulphur content in fuel oil and protocols for mitigating incidents at LNG terminals[64]. - The company operates under the regulations of the port state and is responsible for obtaining necessary permits for LNG terminal operations[63]. - The company utilizes Bureau Veritas and Lloyd's Register for vessel classification and compliance with flag state laws[62]. - The company manages its vessel operations and employs seafarers under collective bargaining agreements, ensuring compliance with the Maritime Labour Convention 2006[70]. Financial Risks and Debt Management - As of December 31, 2024, the company had outstanding principal on long-term debt to third parties of $333.6 million and to related parties of $170.9 million[174]. - The company had finance lease liabilities to third parties amounting to $191.4 million as of December 31, 2024[174]. - The company's ability to service or refinance its debt will depend on future financial performance and overall creditworthiness of its customer base[175]. - The company may face limitations in obtaining additional financing due to its current debt levels and financial covenants[178]. - The financing agreements are secured by certain vessels and impose significant operating and financial restrictions[177]. Operational and Market Risks - The company faces risks related to construction and commissioning of projects, which may lead to time delays and unforeseen expenses[78]. - The company is exposed to competitive market risks for LNG regasification services and fluctuations in LNG supply and demand[77]. - The timely completion of energy-related infrastructure is highly dependent on the performance of the primary EPC contractor, which may lead to fluctuations in construction costs[81]. - The market for LNG regasification services is competitive, with potential new entrants that could offer lower rates and modern fleets[82]. - Increased competition for LNG import projects may arise from experienced companies, potentially leading to greater price competition for regasification contracts[84]. - The company recorded lower of cost or net realizable value write-downs on LNG inventory during 2023 and 2022, indicating price volatility in the LNG market[86]. - The company relies on a small number of customers, with two customers accounting for over 10% of revenues in both 2024 and 2023, making it vulnerable to their performance[95]. - The company faces commodity price risk due to the composition of its LNG purchase and supply portfolio, which may lead to increased volatility in operating income[97]. - The company may be exposed to differences in market-area indices when selling LNG, which can significantly affect margins[99]. - The company must make substantial long-term expenditures to maintain and replace the operating capacity of its fleet and associated assets[90]. - The company faces risks related to fluctuations in LNG prices, which could impact customer payment capabilities and overall financial condition[100]. - Operational challenges with FSRUs and LNG import terminals may lead to revenue loss and increased costs due to mechanical risks and performance standards[104]. - The company is exposed to risks from third-party facilities, which could adversely affect business operations and financial results if disruptions occur[110]. Human Capital and Management - The company has a global headcount of 919 employees, consisting of 241 full-time onshore employees and 678 seafarers, emphasizing the importance of human capital[54]. - The company’s management team has extensive experience across the LNG value chain, enhancing its competitive positioning in the market[49]. - A shortage of qualified personnel in the LNG industry could impair operational capabilities and increase crewing costs, negatively impacting financial performance[113]. - The company relies heavily on key management personnel, and their loss could adversely affect business operations and market perception[122]. Cybersecurity and Compliance Risks - Cybersecurity incidents pose a significant risk, potentially leading to operational disruptions and reputational damage[117]. - The company is subject to complex regulatory processes for obtaining and maintaining necessary permits and approvals for LNG operations, which can impede project development[129]. - The company must comply with various international trade and economic sanctions laws, which could result in significant penalties if violated[139]. - The company is exposed to potential liabilities under environmental laws, such as the U.S. Oil Pollution Act, which imposes strict liability for oil pollution damages[138]. - The company anticipates increased costs due to compliance with new environmental regulations, including those related to low-sulfur fuel requirements[143]. Financial Reporting and Taxation - Future changes in tax laws could materially affect the company's worldwide tax liabilities and reduce net returns to stockholders[191]. - The company is exposed to currency fluctuations, particularly between the U.S. dollar and other currencies, which could affect reported revenue and net income[194]. - Financial derivatives are used to hedge currency exposure and manage interest rate risks, but they carry inherent risks[196]. - The company is required to pay 85% of the net cash tax savings realized from the acquisition of EELP interests to the TRA Beneficiaries, with the remaining 15% retained by the company[207]. - The TRA payments will vary based on multiple factors, including the price of Class A Common Stock and the timing of exchanges, which could lead to substantial payments[209]. - Payments under the TRA may be accelerated in certain circumstances, potentially exceeding the actual tax benefits realized[210]. - The company may incur debt to finance TRA payments if distributions from EELP are insufficient[208]. - The TRA obligations could negatively impact the company's financial condition and liquidity, potentially delaying or preventing mergers or asset sales[212]. Shareholder and Governance Issues - The concentration of stock ownership by Kaiser, who controls 77.5% of the voting power, may deter hostile takeovers and affect the trading price of Class A Common Stock[159]. - The company does not maintain insurance against all operational risks, which could lead to significant liabilities and losses[154]. - Future insurance coverage may be difficult to procure at reasonable rates due to environmental regulations, potentially harming financial condition[155]. - Political volatility in operating jurisdictions could lead to project delays and increased costs, impacting development timelines[156]. - The company is classified as a "controlled company" under NYSE rules, allowing it to rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements[167].