Canadian miner Eldorado Gold ( EGO ) reported mixed Q3 results. While production fell in the last quarter amid operational issues at Olympias and increased costs at its projects in Turkey, the company continued to solidify its strongIndividual investor and financial analyst. I mostly cover energy and mining sector companies. When it comes to my investment approach I like businesses with some kind of competitive advantage and excellent future prospects. Particularly, I prioritize good cash flow generation al ...

Core Insights - Eldorado Gold Corporation is a mid-tier gold and base-metals producer with diversified operations in Turkey, Canada, and Greece, appealing to a wide range of investors [2][3][43] - The company has shown renewed operational momentum in 2025, supported by revenue growth and a disciplined capital allocation strategy, including buybacks and project investments [2][10] - Eldorado's operational profile includes a mix of conventional gold operations and polymetallic production, which helps in managing costs and enhancing cash flow [6][17] Company Overview - Eldorado Gold Corporation is publicly traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker TSX:ELD, with a market capitalization of approximately CAD 5.15 billion [3][9][34] - The company operates key mines such as Kışladağ, Efemçukuru, the Lamaque Complex, and Olympias, utilizing both open-pit and underground production methods [3][5] - The asset mix includes high-grade underground operations and bulk-tonnage open pits, providing a balance of cost and grade exposure [6][18] Financial Performance - Recent net sales are reported in the range of approximately US$1.7–1.8 billion, with net income between US$300–360 million for recent periods [9][11][12] - The company has a P/E ratio of 12.3x for 2025, with a forward P/E estimate near 6.7x for 2026 [11][12] - Eldorado has historically not positioned itself as a high-dividend payer, focusing instead on capital for development spending and share buybacks [11][40] Operational Strategy - The operational strategy emphasizes cost control, commodity diversification, and staged project execution, with by-product credits from polymetallic production helping to reduce effective gold cash costs [17][21] - Key operational features include a focus on production growth initiatives and capital allocation decisions, with regular comparisons to peers like Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti [7][10] - The company has a development pipeline that includes projects like Perama Hill and Skouries, which can extend mine life and improve production profiles if permitted and financed [6][22] Market Position - Eldorado's mid-cap scale garners attention from specialized resource funds and analysts tracking the metals sector, with its market position providing exposure to gold with operational diversification [29][33] - The company is often compared to larger gold producers like Barrick Gold and Newmont Corporation, with distinct advantages in its asset mix and production capabilities [31][39] - Index membership on the TSX influences passive fund ownership and visibility among institutional investors [29][30]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Eldorado Gold reported net earnings from continuing operations of $57 million, or $0.28 per share, with adjusted net earnings of $82 million, or $0.41 per share, excluding one-time items [12][14] - Free cash flow for the quarter was negative $87 million, but underlying free cash flow, excluding capital investments in the Skouries project, was positive $77 million [12][14] - Total cash costs were $1,195 per ounce sold, and all-in sustaining costs were $1,679 per ounce sold [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gold production for the third quarter was 115,190 ounces, with operational performance at Lamaque benefiting from early processing of the second bulk sample [5] - Kisladag produced 37,184 ounces at a total cash cost of $1,309 per ounce sold, impacted by lower tons mined due to equipment availability [25] - Olympias produced 13,597 ounces, with total cash costs of $1,869 per ounce sold, affected by flotation circuit stability issues [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company tightened its 2025 gold production guidance to between 470,000 and 490,000 ounces, while total cash costs were revised upwards to between $1,175 and $1,250 per ounce sold [6][12] - The increase in costs was attributed to record-high gold prices and higher royalty rates in Türkiye, as well as lower performance at Olympias [6][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on advancing its growth strategy, particularly with the Skouries project expected to reach cash flow inflection in 2026 [11][29] - Eldorado Gold is committed to disciplined capital allocation and returning value to shareholders through share repurchase programs [8][29] - The management emphasized the importance of safety, operational excellence, and ESG initiatives as part of its long-term strategy [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage challenges, particularly at Olympias, and highlighted ongoing efforts to improve recovery rates [58][63] - The company is optimistic about the future, with plans to update the market on capital and operating costs in 2026 [47][68] - Management acknowledged the potential for M&A opportunities but emphasized a focus on current projects and operational improvements [33][34] Other Important Information - The company completed a share repurchase program, buying back approximately 3 million shares for a total of $79 million in Q3 2025 [8][9] - The Skouries project is on track, with construction progress reported at 73% for phase two [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the desired outcome for the investment in Probe Gold? - Management indicated that the investment was initially aimed at supplementing ore for the permitted mill capacity, but the recent developments did not align with strategic initiatives [32] Question: What is the timeline for Skouries and potential risks? - Management confirmed that the dry stack filter plant is critical, and they are confident in meeting the timeline for first concentrate production by Q1 2026 [34][35] Question: What are the expected impacts of the whole ore agglomeration project at Kisladag? - The project aims to enhance permeability in the leach pad, potentially reducing the leach cycle from 300 days to 200 days, improving recovery rates [36] Question: What is the definition of commercial production for Skouries? - Commercial production is expected to be defined as achieving 80% of design nameplate throughput, with a ramp-up to 100% by the end of 2026 [42][43] Question: What are the expectations for dividends and capital allocation? - Management indicated that 2026 will be a key year for cash flow generation, and they will consider implementing a sustainable dividend at that time [67]

Core Viewpoint - Probe Gold Inc. has made headlines as it enters into a definitive agreement for acquisition by Fresnillo plc, with a total purchase price of approximately C$780 million, leading to a significant increase in its stock price [5][8][9]. Company Overview - Probe Gold Inc. is a prominent Canadian gold exploration company focused on acquiring, exploring, and developing high-potential gold properties. The company owns 100% of its flagship Novador Gold Project and controls a substantial land package of about 1,798 square kilometers in Québec [4]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition agreement stipulates that Probe shareholders will receive C$3.65 per share, representing a 39% premium based on the closing price as of October 30, 2025, and a 26% premium based on the volume-weighted average price over the preceding 20 trading days [8]. - The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, pending necessary approvals [9]. Market Reaction - Following the acquisition announcement, Probe Gold's stock surged to C$3.65, marking a gain of 38.78% with a trading volume of 2.4 million shares [5].

Investors in Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Jan 16, 2026 $5.00 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.What is Implied Volatility?Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It cou ...

Operations - Gold production reached 115,190 ounces, benefiting from higher output at the Lamaque Complex, while production at Olympias faced challenges [5] - Gold sales totaled 116,529 ounces at an average realized price of $3,527 per ounce [5] - The company is tightening its 2025 annual gold production guidance to between 470,000 to 490,000 ounces [5] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $434.7 million, up from $331.8 million in Q3 2024 [30][33] - Net earnings attributable to shareholders from continuing operations were $56.5 million, or $0.28 per share, compared to $101.1 million, or $0.49 per share in Q3 2024 [38] - Adjusted net earnings were $82.3 million, or $0.41 per share, an increase from $71.0 million, or $0.35 per share in Q3 2024 [39] Production Costs - Production costs increased to $164.1 million in Q3 2025 from $141.2 million in Q3 2024, driven by higher royalties and labor costs [34] - Total cash costs averaged $1,195 per ounce sold, up from $953 in Q3 2024 [36] - All-in sustaining costs (AISC) averaged $1,679 per ounce sold, an increase from $1,335 in Q3 2024 [37] Capital Expenditures - Total capital expenditures for Q3 2025 were $255.6 million, including $137.7 million for project capital at Skouries [5] - Sustaining capital expenditures were $38.3 million in Q3 2025, compared to $33.3 million in Q3 2024 [42] - Growth capital investment totaled $57.7 million, primarily related to Kisladag and Lamaque [5] Skouries Project Update - The Skouries Project achieved a significant milestone with the first underground test stope blast [7] - Project capital for 2025 has been revised upward to $440 to $470 million, reflecting accelerated work [15] - First concentrate production is expected toward the end of Q1 2026, with commercial production anticipated in mid-2026 [13] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately $78.8 million worth of common shares during the quarter [11] - The ongoing share buybacks reflect a disciplined approach to capital allocation and confidence in long-term growth [8] Board Changes - Samantha Espley has been appointed to the Board of Directors, while John Webster will resign effective November 1, 2025 [9]

Core Insights - Eldorado Gold Corporation (NYSE: EGO) is a Canadian company focused on gold mining operations in Canada, Turkey, and Greece, with the Canadian and Turkish mines being the largest producers of equivalent ounces [1] Company Overview - The company operates multiple projects across different countries, emphasizing its commitment to gold production [1] - Eldorado Gold is characterized by its focus on sustainable free cash flows, low leverage, and manageable debt levels, particularly in distressed situations with recovery potential [1] Investment Focus - The company is positioned in sectors that are often overlooked by the market, such as commodities, particularly in emerging markets, which present high margins and long-term investment opportunities [1] - Eldorado Gold maintains a pro-shareholder approach, including consistent buyback programs and dividend distributions [1]

Summary of North American Metals & Mining Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: North American Precious Metals - **Key Commodities**: Gold and Silver Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Price Forecasts**: - Gold is projected to reach **$5,000/oz** and silver to **$65/oz** in the next 12-18 months, with 2026 average forecasts for gold raised by **18%** to **$4,329/oz** and silver by **29%** to **$54.88/oz** [1][10][11] - Investment demand for gold is expected to increase by **14%** in 2026, similar to the current year [2] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - Key conditions supporting gold price strength include: - US structural deficit - Inflationary pressures from deglobalization - Threats to the independence of the US central bank - Ongoing global geopolitical tensions [1] 3. **Investment Trends**: - ETF purchases of gold surged by **880% YoY** in September, reaching an all-time high of **$14 billion** [2] - Total physical and paper gold investment has nearly doubled, exceeding **5%** of global equity and fixed income markets [2] 4. **Risks to Monitor**: - Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs - Potential hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve if economic data improves - Outcomes of the US mid-term elections affecting economic policy implementation [2] Company-Specific Updates 1. **Net Asset Value (NAV) and Price Objectives (PO)**: - NAV estimates for North American Precious Metals coverage increased by **10%**, with average POs raised by **16%** [3][19] - IAMGOLD (IAG) saw the largest PO increase of **49%** to **$16.75** per share, reflecting improved jurisdictional risk [3][15] - SSR Mining (SSRM) PO raised by **41%** to **$18.00** per share, despite an Underperform rating due to uncertainties regarding Çöpler mine [3][15] 2. **Top Picks**: - Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is highlighted as the top pick due to its strong track record and growth projects [4] - Pan American Silver (PAAS) is favored for balanced exposure to silver and gold [4] 3. **EBITDA Revisions**: - Average EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027 increased by **25%** and **18%**, respectively, driven by revised commodity price forecasts [20] 4. **Valuation Multiples**: - Target multiples for IAMGOLD and SSR Mining adjusted to **1.60x** and **1.00x**, respectively, reflecting improved performance and market conditions [15][16] Additional Important Information - The report indicates potential conflicts of interest due to BofA Securities' business relationships with covered issuers [6] - The document includes various disclosures and certifications relevant to the research [5][6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on industry trends, company-specific updates, and potential investment opportunities and risks.

Core Viewpoint - The article compares Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) and Royal Gold (RGLD) to determine which stock is more attractive to value investors [1] Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - Eldorado Gold Corporation has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a stronger earnings outlook compared to Royal Gold, which has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [3] - EGO is likely to have seen a stronger improvement in its earnings outlook than RGLD recently [3] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - EGO has a forward P/E ratio of 16.28, while RGLD has a forward P/E of 26.22, suggesting EGO is more attractively priced [5] - EGO's PEG ratio is 0.44, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its expected earnings growth, whereas RGLD's PEG ratio is 1.58 [5] - EGO's P/B ratio is 1.43, compared to RGLD's P/B of 3.96, further highlighting EGO's relative undervaluation [6] Group 3: Value Grades - Based on various valuation metrics, EGO holds a Value grade of B, while RGLD has a Value grade of D, indicating EGO is the better option for value investors [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks in the US market experienced an upward trend, with significant gains observed in companies such as Hecla Mining (HL.US), Harmony Gold (HMY.US), and others, following a rise in spot gold prices to a new historical high of $4,090 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Hecla Mining (HL.US) rose over 7% [1] - Harmony Gold (HMY.US) increased by more than 6% [1] - Eldorado Gold (EGO.US) saw a rise of over 4% [1] - Gold Fields (GFI.US) and Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) both gained over 3% [1] Group 2: Gold Price Movement - Spot gold prices increased by 2% during the day, reaching $4,090 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] - The price surge occurred despite traditional valuation drivers such as the US dollar and real interest rates being seemingly detached from gold's current valuation [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Zhao Yaoting, a strategist at Invesco Asia Pacific, indicated that despite gold reaching historical highs and appearing overvalued, the upward price momentum may continue [1]