Earnings Report and Estimates - Fastenal Company (FAST) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan 17 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is 48 cents, indicating 4.4% growth from the year-ago level [3] - The consensus mark for revenues is $1.85 billion, a 5% increase from the year-ago figure of $1.76 billion [3] - The company's model predicts overall daily sales of $29.4 million for Q4, a 3.4% increase from a year ago [7] Historical Performance and Trends - In the last reported quarter, Fastenal's earnings met the Zacks Consensus Estimate while net sales missed by 0.3% [2] - Year-over-year, the top line rose 3.5% while the bottom line remained flat [2] - Fastenal's earnings topped the consensus mark in one of the last four quarters, met in two, and missed in one, with an average of 0.1% [2] - November's average daily sales (ADS) grew 3.4% to $29.5 million, improving from 2.8% growth in October 2024 [5] Sales and Market Performance - Manufacturing sales improved 11.2% (Heavy Manufacturing and Other Manufacturing) and 8% year-over-year in November and October 2024, respectively [6] - Non-residential construction declined 1.7% in November and 4.9% in October 2024 [6] - Fastener sales were up 0.1% in November and down 2% in October 2024 [6] - Safety sales increased 5.5% in November compared with 5.8% growth in October 2024 [6] - Other categories improved 5.2% in November and 5.1% in October 2024 [6] Key Growth Drivers - Improving manufacturing markets are likely to contribute to the company's top line [4] - Factors favoring sales growth include a significant number of large customers, a strong digital strategy, a balanced mix of onsite and offsite services, and market share gains across various product categories [4] - A change in national account strategy is expected to contribute positively [4] Margins and Expenses - The gross margin for Q4 is expected to be 44.7%, down from 45.5% in the year-ago figure [8] - Total operating expenses are expected to increase 1.8% to $453.7 million in Q4 from a year ago [8] - Headwinds include negative impacts from customer and product mix, higher import duties (particularly in Mexico), reduced supplier rebates, lower product purchases, and rising employee and occupancy-related expenses [7] Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank - Fastenal has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank 3 [10] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 1, 2, or 3 increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here [9] Comparison with Other Companies - Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) has an Earnings ESP of +53.12% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings expected to grow 1,000% year-over-year [11][12] - Advance Auto Parts (AAP) has an Earnings ESP of +13.32% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings expected to decline 145.8% year-over-year [12] - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has an Earnings ESP of +12.67% and a Zacks Rank 1, with earnings expected to decrease 1.2% year-over-year [13]

Earnings and Revenue Projections - Fastenal Company is set to release its fourth-quarter financial results on January 17, 2025, before the market opens [1] - Analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings of 48 cents per share, up from 46 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $1.84 billion, compared to $1.76 billion a year earlier [1] - Fastenal previously reported better-than-expected third-quarter financial results on October 11 [1] Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Fastenal shares increased by 0.7% to close at $74.27 on Wednesday [2] - Jefferies analyst Stephen Volkmann maintained a Hold rating and raised the price target from $74 to $85 on December 6, 2024, with an accuracy rate of 71% [3] - UBS analyst Amit Mehrotra assumed a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $71 to $88 on November 13, 2024, with an accuracy rate of 75% [3] - Morgan Stanley analyst Chris Snyder maintained an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price target from $72 to $76 on October 14, 2024, with an accuracy rate of 71% [3] - Stephens & Co analyst Tommy Moll maintained an Equal-Weight rating and increased the price target from $56 to $75 on October 14, 2024, with an accuracy rate of 79% [3] - Baird analyst David Manthey maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $67 to $80 on October 14, 2024, with an accuracy rate of 77% [3]

Earnings and Revenue Projections - Wall Street analysts expect Fastenal to post quarterly earnings of $0 48 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 4 4% [1] - Revenues are projected to be $1 85 billion, up 5% from the year-ago quarter [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, reflecting analysts' reassessment of initial estimates [1] Key Metrics Analysis - The consensus estimate for 'Business days' is 63 00 Days, compared to 62 Days in the same quarter last year [4] - Analysts predict 'Daily sales' to average $29 37, up from $28 40 in the year-ago quarter [4] - The 'Number of in-market locations' is expected to reach 3,620, compared to 3,419 in the same quarter last year [4] - 'Weighted FASTBin/FASTVend signings' are projected at 6,407, up from 5,462 in the year-ago quarter [5] - The 'Number of branch locations' is estimated at 1,598, slightly up from 1,597 in the same quarter last year [5] - Analysts expect 'Number of active Onsite locations' to reach 2,023, compared to 1,822 in the previous year [6] - 'Weighted FASTBin/FASTVend installations' are projected at 125,874, up from 113,138 in the same quarter last year [6] Stock Performance and Market Comparison - Fastenal shares have experienced a -6 7% change in the past month, underperforming the -3 5% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite [7] - With a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), Fastenal is expected to underperform the overall market in the near future [7]

Fastenal Company FAST will release its fourth-quarter financial results, before the opening bell, on Friday, Jan. 17, 2025.Analysts expect the Winona, Minnesota-based company to report quarterly earnings at 48 cents per share, up from 46 cents per share in the year-ago period. Fastenal projects quarterly revenue of $1.84 billion, compared to $1.76 billion a year earlier, according to data from Benzinga Pro.On Dec. 11, Stifel analyst Brian Butler downgraded Fastenal from Buy to Hold and maintained the price ...

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For Immediate ReleaseChicago, IL – November 15, 2024 – Today, Zacks Equity Research The Home Depot Inc. (HD) , Lowe's Companies (LOW) , Fastenal Co. (FAST) , Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) and Tecnoglass (TGLS) .Industry: Retail Building ProductsLink: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2370313/5-retail-building-products-stocks-set-to-thrive-amid-industry-recoveryParticipants in the Zacks Building Products – Retail industry are poised to benefit from technological initiatives to enhance the e-commerce experience ...

Fastenal Company (FAST) recently released its October sales report, wherein average daily sales or ADS grew 2.8% year over year to $30.1 million, moderating sequentially but improving annually. In the prior month, daily sales registered 3.2% growth, and in the year-ago period, the same registered a 1.9% increase.The ADS is lower than the historical October daily sales growth average of down 2.1% month over month between 2018 and 2023 (excluding 2020).Net sales in October 2024 were $692.8 million, reflecting ...

Have you looked into how Fastenal (FAST) performed internationally during the quarter ending September 2024? Considering the widespread global presence of this maker of industrial and construction fasteners, examining the trends in international revenues is essential for assessing its financial resilience and prospects for growth. In the modern, closely-knit global economic landscape, the capacity of a business to access foreign markets is often a key determinant of its financial well-being and growth path. ...

Core Insights - Fastenal shares experienced a nearly 10% increase, reaching their highest level since April, following the company's report of higher revenue despite disruptions from Hurricane Helene [1][5] - The company reported third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of 52 cents on revenue of $1.91 billion, which is a 3.5% increase and aligns with analyst forecasts [2][5] - The impact of Hurricane Helene resulted in a reduction of daily sales by 5 to 25 basis points in the Southeast and Atlantic Coastal regions [3] Revenue Drivers - Revenue growth was attributed to an increase in larger customers and the benefits from onsite locations established in the past two years [5] - Sales of safety supplies rose by 6.8%, while other product lines contributed an additional 3.7%, which helped to offset a 4.0% decline in fastener sales [5] Management Commentary - The CEO noted that the quarter finished stronger than it started, particularly in light of the hurricane's impact on the last few days of the month [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter net sales increased by 3.5%, with earnings per share of $0.52, up 1% year-over-year [8][22] - Daily sales rate grew by 1.9%, with September showing a stronger performance despite hurricane impacts [8][17] - Operating margin decreased to 20.3%, down 70 basis points year-over-year, while gross margin was 44.9%, down 100 basis points [20][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Onsite signings reached 93 in the quarter, with active sites up 12% from the end of Q3 2023 [12] - FMI Technology signed 7,281 weighted devices, averaging 114 per day, indicating strong growth in this segment [14] - E-commerce grew by 25.5%, with eProcurement growing over 30%, while web-centric eCommerce saw single-digit growth [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reseller end market sales declined by 11.3% in Q3, indicating channel destocking [18] - The Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) has been below 50 for 22 of the last 23 months, indicating manufacturing contraction [17] - Key markets such as agriculture and consumer durables were noted as weak, while oil and gas remained stable [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on customer acquisition and improving operational efficiency, particularly through Onsite and FMI signings [12][42] - There is a strategic emphasis on balancing cost management with growth investments, particularly in IT and business analytics [21][22] - The company aims to enhance its digital solutions and e-commerce capabilities to better align with customer needs [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about potential improvements in market conditions moving into 2025, despite current sluggish demand [19][30] - The company is navigating a shallow contraction in the market but expects strong year-to-date signings to benefit future sales trends [19][22] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining flexibility and strategic inventory management to improve supply chain efficiency [11][23] Other Important Information - The company added approximately $25 million in new inventory in Q3 2024, with plans for an additional $5 million to $10 million in Q4 [23] - Net capital spending for Q3 2024 was $55.8 million, with full-year expectations ranging from $235 million to $255 million [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did September's performance benefit from macro factors or market share gains? - Management indicated that the improvement was largely due to new customer acquisitions rather than macroeconomic factors [25][35] Question: What is the outlook for gross margin in Q4? - Management expects a slight decline in gross margin but believes it will perform better than typical seasonal trends [26][27] Question: What is the minimum sales growth needed to return to historical margin levels? - Management stated that revenue growth above mid-single digits is necessary to leverage margins effectively [29][30] Question: How is the company addressing branch growth and market visibility? - Management anticipates branch growth in 2025, with improved alignment in sales leadership and customer service roles [44][45]