Core Viewpoint - Fastenal is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results being crucial for its near-term stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to be released on July 14, with expectations that better-than-expected results could drive the stock price higher, while disappointing results may lead to a decline [2]. - Fastenal is projected to post quarterly earnings of $0.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +12%, and revenues are expected to reach $2.06 billion, up 7.5% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts have not significantly altered their initial estimates during this period [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Fastenal is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +3.05%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - Fastenal currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, along with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - Fastenal has not been able to exceed consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters, with the last reported quarter matching expectations at $0.26 per share, resulting in no surprise [13][14]. Conclusion - Fastenal is viewed as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, but investors are advised to consider other factors that may influence stock performance beyond just earnings results [15][17].

Group 1 - Fastenal Company is set to release its second-quarter earnings results on July 14, with analysts expecting earnings of 28 cents per share, an increase from 25 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The projected quarterly revenue for Fastenal is $2.07 billion, compared to $1.92 billion a year earlier [1] - On April 23, Fastenal announced a two-for-one stock split [1] Group 2 - Fastenal shares experienced a decline of 0.4%, closing at $42.68 [2] - Benzinga provides access to the latest analyst ratings for Fastenal, allowing readers to sort by various criteria [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley analyst Chris Snyder maintained an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price target from $38 to $40 [4] - Stephens & Co. analyst Tommy Moll maintained an Equal-Weight rating and increased the price target from $75 to $80 [4] - Baird analyst David Manthey maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $80 to $86 [4] - William Blair analyst Ryan Merkel upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform [4] - Stifel analyst Brian Butler maintained a Hold rating and cut the price target from $86 to $82 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Fastenal, O'Reilly Automotive, and Interactive Brokers have all announced stock splits this year, prompting a comparison of their financial metrics, growth prospects, and valuations to determine the best investment choice among them [2][14]. Financials - O'Reilly Automotive generated revenue of $16.87 billion over the last 12 months, significantly higher than Fastenal's $7.61 billion and Interactive Brokers' $5.4 billion [4]. - In terms of net profit margin, Fastenal leads slightly with 15.1%, followed by Interactive Brokers at 14.7% and O'Reilly at 14.1% [5]. - Interactive Brokers has the strongest balance sheet, with a cash position of nearly $89.7 billion compared to its debt of $17.15 billion, while both Fastenal and O'Reilly have larger debt loads than their cash reserves [6]. Growth - Interactive Brokers experienced a revenue increase of 18.6% year over year in Q1 2025, with earnings rising by 21.7% [7]. - Fastenal's net sales grew by 3.4% year over year, with earnings up only 0.3%, while O'Reilly reported a revenue growth of 4% but a decline in earnings by 1.6% [8]. - Analysts project O'Reilly to deliver the highest earnings growth next year at 12.5%, compared to Fastenal's 9.8% and Interactive Brokers' 7.3% [9]. Valuation - Interactive Brokers has the lowest trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio and forward P/E multiple [10]. - O'Reilly has a lower price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio than Fastenal, indicating a more attractive valuation based on future earnings growth projections [11]. Dividends - Fastenal is the dividend winner with a forward dividend yield of 2.13% and has increased its dividend for 27 consecutive years [12]. - Interactive Brokers has a forward dividend yield of 0.63% and has only increased its dividend for two years, while O'Reilly does not currently offer a dividend [12]. Best Stock-Split Stock - The best choice among these stocks depends on the investor's style; Fastenal is recommended for income investors, while O'Reilly is viewed as the most attractively valued for growth investors [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Fastenal Company is a leading wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies, playing a critical role in the economy and demonstrating strong stock performance, nearly doubling investors' money over the past five years [2][12]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - Fastenal's stock split at the end of May aimed to enhance share accessibility and liquidity, attracting a broader base of investors, particularly retail investors [2][3]. - Following the stock split, Fastenal's stock price gained about 5% as it adjusted to find a new equilibrium [3]. - The company has a current stock price of $42.86, with a 12-month price target of $40.40, indicating a potential downside of 5.74% [13]. Group 2: Operational Strength and Growth Strategy - Fastenal's operational excellence is driven by its direct sales model and extensive distribution network, including the "Onsite" location model, which integrates deeply with customer operations [4][5]. - The company plans to add between 375 and 400 new Onsite locations in 2025, expanding its existing base of over 1,950 [6]. - Fastenal's product portfolio is diversifying, with "Safety and Other Industrial Products" seeing a 3.5% year-over-year increase in daily sales, outpacing traditional fasteners [7]. Group 3: Financial Health and Shareholder Commitment - Fastenal reported Q1 2025 net sales of $1.96 billion, a 3.4% increase year-over-year, with May 2025 daily sales showing a 2.5% rise [7]. - The company maintains a conservative capital structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 and strong liquidity ratios, indicating a solid capacity to meet short-term obligations [8]. - Fastenal has a 26-year track record of increasing dividends, with an annual dividend of $0.88 per share, reflecting financial stability and disciplined capital management [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Fastenal's strong fundamentals, including operational efficiencies and disciplined capital allocation, support its potential for sustained growth [14]. - The company plans to invest between $180 million and $200 million in capital expenditures for 2025, primarily for expanding Onsite locations and deploying FAST Solutions [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent actions of billionaire fund managers who sold shares of Fastenal, a company that has experienced significant stock price appreciation and has completed multiple stock splits over the years [1][7][15] - Fastenal has delivered a total return exceeding 214,000% since its IPO in 1987, marking its ninth stock split recently [15][19] - The article highlights that while stock splits can attract investor interest, they do not fundamentally change a company's market cap or performance [8][9] Group 2 - Billionaire fund managers Cliff Asness and Israel Englander reduced their stakes in Fastenal, with Asness selling about 519,000 shares and Englander selling roughly 203,000 shares [17][19] - The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of Fastenal is currently 35, which is a 16% premium compared to its average over the past five years, potentially influencing the decision to sell [19] - Fastenal's business is closely tied to the health of the U.S. and global economy, with its operations expected to grow alongside economic expansion [20][21]

Core Insights - Fastenal has established itself as a significant player in the industrial supply chain by focusing on essential yet often overlooked products like fasteners and safety gear [1][4] - The company has demonstrated consistent growth, with a 67% increase in shares over the past three years and a remarkable return of over 13,000% since the mid-1990s [2][12] - Fastenal's innovative supply chain solutions, including the installation of vending machines and on-site stores, have contributed to its success and customer convenience [5][8] Financial Performance - Fastenal has paid and raised its dividend for 25 consecutive years, showcasing its commitment to returning value to shareholders [2][11] - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 80% of earnings, but it maintains zero net debt and has low capital expenditure requirements [12] - Fastenal's management has increased the dividend at an annualized rate of 12% over the past decade, indicating strong financial health [12] Market Position and Growth Potential - Fastenal has approximately 130,000 vending machines installed, reflecting a growth of 12.2% from 2023 to 2024 and 12.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025 [8][9] - The addressable market for Fastenal's vending machines is estimated to support over 1.7 million units, indicating significant growth potential [9] - National accounts represented 63% of total sales in 2024, with no single customer contributing more than 5% of sales, reducing dependency risk [10] Future Outlook - Analysts project that Fastenal will achieve an average earnings growth of just over 10% annually in the long term [13] - Despite the positive outlook, the stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 42, which may be considered high given the expected growth rate [15] - Investors are advised to consider waiting for a lower price before purchasing shares, as the current valuation reflects the company's strong performance [16]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of stock splits and artificial intelligence (AI) on market performance, highlighting that AI could add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030 [1][2]. Stock Splits - Stock splits are a method used by publicly traded companies to adjust their share price and outstanding share count without affecting market capitalization or operating performance [4]. - There are two types of stock splits: forward and reverse, with forward splits being favored by successful companies, while reverse splits are typically used by struggling firms [5][6]. - Historically, companies that have enacted forward splits have averaged a 25.4% return in the 12 months following the announcement, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [7]. Recent Stock Splits - In 2024, numerous prominent companies, including Nvidia, Broadcom, Walmart, and Chipotle, completed stock splits, with only one being a reverse split [8]. - In 2025, the trend continues with non-tech companies announcing forward splits, although the pace has been slower compared to 2024 [9]. Company-Specific Insights - O'Reilly Automotive announced a 15-for-1 forward split, reducing its share price from approximately $1,382 to around $92, benefiting from the aging vehicle market in the U.S. [10][11]. - O'Reilly has executed a significant share-repurchase program, spending nearly $26 billion to buy back over 59% of its outstanding shares since 2011, positively impacting earnings per share [12]. - Interactive Brokers announced a 4-for-1 forward split, marking its first in history, and has seen growth in key performance metrics since the 2022 bear market [13][15]. Fastenal's Performance - Fastenal completed a 2-for-1 stock split, marking its ninth split in 37 years, with its stock rising by 130,700% since its IPO in 1987 [18][19]. - The company's sales are closely tied to the health of the U.S. and global economy, with 73% of first-quarter sales coming from its contract segment, indicating strong customer relationships [20][21]. - Fastenal's total return since its IPO reflects its integration into customer supply chains, utilizing managed-inventory solutions to enhance cost efficiencies [22].

Core Insights - Fastenal's international operations are crucial for understanding its financial strength and growth potential, especially in the context of a global economy [2][4] - The company's reliance on international markets provides opportunities for revenue diversification but also presents challenges such as currency fluctuations and geopolitical risks [3][9] Financial Performance - For the quarter ending March 2025, Fastenal reported total revenue of $1.96 billion, a year-over-year increase of 3.4% [4] - Revenue from Other foreign countries was $61.1 million, contributing 3.12% to total revenue, surpassing the consensus estimate of $60.3 million [5] - Revenue from Canada and Mexico amounted to $268.9 million, accounting for 13.72% of total revenue, also exceeding expectations [6] Future Projections - Analysts project Fastenal's total revenue for the current fiscal quarter to be $2.05 billion, indicating a 6.9% increase from the prior year [7] - For the full year, total annual revenue is expected to reach $8.08 billion, reflecting a 7% increase compared to last year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Fastenal's stock has declined by 1.4%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by 9.1% [13] - In the last three months, Fastenal's stock price increased by 7.2%, contrasting with a 3.1% decline in the S&P 500 index [13]

Stock Split Overview - The market has seen a significant stock split announcement in 2025, with O'Reilly Automotive declaring a 15-for-1 forward split after a notable increase in its stock price since its last split in 2005 [1][11] - Stock splits, particularly forward splits, have been a key driver of market performance, contributing to record highs in major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq [2][9] Types of Stock Splits - There are two main types of stock splits: forward and reverse, with forward splits being more favorable among investors [5][6] - Forward stock splits aim to lower share prices to make them more accessible to retail investors, while reverse splits are often associated with companies facing operational challenges [6][7] Performance of Companies with Forward Splits - Companies that have executed forward stock splits have historically outperformed the S&P 500, with an average return of 25.4% in the 12 months following the announcement since 1980, compared to the S&P 500's 11.9% [9] - High-profile companies like Nvidia, Walmart, and Broadcom have recently completed forward splits, contributing to a wave of stock-split enthusiasm [10] O'Reilly Automotive's Performance - O'Reilly Automotive's stock has increased by over 4,400% since its last split in 2005, driven by factors such as an aging vehicle fleet and a robust stock buyback program totaling nearly $26 billion since 2011 [11][12] - The company's strong performance is attributed to its strategic investments and operational efficiency [12] Fastenal's Stock Split and Growth - Fastenal has a history of stock splits, with its latest 2-for-1 split approved for May 21, reflecting its long-term success and operational investments [15][16] - The company has seen significant growth, with shares increasing by over 127,100% since its IPO, supported by a strong sales performance tied to manufacturing [16][17] Economic Factors and Future Outlook - Fastenal's contract sales have been rising, indicating strong demand from established customer relationships, which account for nearly three-quarters of total sales [18] - The company is investing in e-commerce and digital solutions to enhance customer service and streamline operations, which positions it well for future growth [19][20] - Despite a promising outlook, Fastenal faces challenges with a high valuation, as its forward P/E ratio of nearly 34 is above its historical average [21][22]

Group 1 - Fastenal (NASDAQ: FAST) is projected to rise to $99.6 by 2027, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1] - The investment thesis highlights a shift away from the branch closure program, suggesting a strategic pivot that may enhance operational efficiency [1] - There is an emphasis on technology and digital services, which could drive growth and improve customer engagement [1] Group 2 - The author has a background in L/S equity analysis, VC analysis, and consulting, indicating a strong foundation in investment research [1] - The focus on sustainability and ESG-related investments reflects a growing trend in the investment community towards responsible investing [1] - The author aims to expand sector awareness by posting industry-agnostic stock pitches, which may provide diverse insights into various markets [1]