Most investors are so focused on this ticker's risk that they're not noticing the odds of a sizable reward.To say fuboTV (FUBO 5.30%) has been a subpar performer lately would be a considerable understatement. Shares are down a whopping 98% from their late-2020 peak, and still within sight of multiyear lows reached in June. The stock's bullish euphoria created by the COVID-19 pandemic clearly didn't last. A lack of profits probably hasn't helped matters either.Still, if you can digest the risk and volatility ...

Core Viewpoint - FuboTV (FUBO) has experienced a significant decline in share price, down 45.6% year-to-date, while the broader consumer discretionary sector and the broadcast radio & television industry have seen gains of 15% and 55.3%, respectively. This underperformance is attributed to intense competition, ongoing legal challenges, and pressures from the virtual MVPD market [1]. Revenue Estimates - For Q4 2024, FUBO anticipates North American revenues between $426 million and $446 million, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Revenues from other regions are expected to be between $8 million and $9 million, indicating flat year-over-year growth [2]. - For the full year 2024, FUBO projects North American revenues of $1.58 billion to $1.6 billion, representing a 19% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Revenues from the rest of the world are expected to be between $33 million and $35 million, indicating a 4% year-over-year growth at the midpoint [3]. Consensus Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FUBO's Q4 revenues is $446.66 million, indicating an 8.89% year-over-year growth. The consensus for the fourth-quarter loss is pegged at 12 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating a year-over-year growth of 29.41% [4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FUBO's 2024 revenues is $1.63 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 18.86%. The consensus for the 2024 loss is currently pegged at 37 cents per share, unchanged over the past 90 days, indicating a year-over-year growth of 49.32%. FUBO has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 36.89% [5]. Market Opportunities - FUBO is capitalizing on the shift to streaming, with traditional pay-TV subscribers decreasing from 105 million in 2010 to 50 million in 2024. Approximately 30% of customers who left traditional pay-TV have adopted virtual MVPDs in the last year, indicating strong demand for FUBO's services [7]. - FUBO offers various options, including a Free Tier, standalone subscriptions, and a sports-first virtual MVPD, catering to diverse consumer needs and price sensitivities. Interactive features like polls and trivia games in live streams enhance the ad experience, making FUBO's offerings more appealing to advertisers [8]. Competitive Landscape - A preliminary injunction against a sports streaming joint venture involving Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery strengthens FUBO's competitive position and supports its antitrust claims. However, the appeal by these companies presents significant legal challenges for FUBO, with an ongoing antitrust case set for trial in 2025, prolonging uncertainty [9]. - FUBO faces stiff competition from major players like Peacock, ESPN+, and Paramount+, which have substantial resources, intensifying competition in the streaming market. The success of the virtual MVPD model is crucial for FUBO to offset the decline in traditional pay-TV, placing pressure on the company to maintain its competitive edge [10].

Core Viewpoint - FuboTV is struggling in a competitive streaming market despite recent agreements and a modest valuation, with its stock down approximately 47% year-to-date [1][10]. Group 1: Company Developments - FuboTV has secured a partnership with The Athletic, which will integrate its services into live game blogs, potentially increasing visibility and customer acquisition [3]. - The company has introduced stand-alone premium subscription services, allowing customers to subscribe to specific packages like FanDuel Sports Network or NBA League Pass without a base channel plan, enhancing customer flexibility [4]. - FuboTV is exploring "skinny bundles" aimed at value-oriented customers, which could broaden its consumer base [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period ending September 30, FuboTV reported a 20% year-over-year sales growth, reaching $386 million, although it remains unprofitable [6]. - Operating expenses for the same period were $445 million, a 10% increase from the previous year, resulting in an operating loss of $59 million, an improvement from the $83 million loss in the prior year [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The streaming industry is facing intense competition, with FuboTV having successfully prevented a joint venture between major players like Walt Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery, which could have posed a significant threat [8]. - The potential for consolidation in the streaming industry is high, as many companies struggle to achieve profitability, particularly in sports streaming due to expensive licensing deals [9][11]. - FuboTV's market cap is under $600 million, and while it trades at a discounted price, concerns about its competitiveness and profitability persist [13].

Core Viewpoint - fuboTV has made strategic partnerships to enhance its market position, but it continues to face significant financial challenges, including high cash burn and share dilution, leading to a substantial decline in stock value [1][5][6]. Group 1: Partnerships and Market Opportunities - fuboTV announced a broadcasting deal with the Chicago Sports Network, targeting a market of nearly 10 million people in the greater Chicago area, which could attract new subscribers as the hockey and basketball seasons begin [3]. - The company has also partnered with The Athletic to integrate premium sports news content into its platform, creating cross-marketing opportunities [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue for fuboTV has increased by 139% over the last three years, but the company has never achieved positive free cash flow, resulting in a cash burn of approximately $150 million over the past 12 months [6]. - As of the end of the third quarter, fuboTV had only $146 million in cash on its balance sheet, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [6]. Group 3: Shareholder Impact - The total shares outstanding for fuboTV have increased by 114% in the last three years, indicating a highly dilutive effect on shareholders [7]. - Despite the addition of a large regional sports network, the company's shaky business model and ongoing cash burn present significant risks for investors [7].

This stock is down 95% in the past 3 years.In this video, I will go over fuboTV's (FUBO -5.59%) third-quarter earnings. Watch the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below.*Stock prices used were from the trading day of Nov. 1, 2024. The video was published on Nov. 4, 2024. ...

Company Analysis - The analyst expresses a bearish outlook on fuboTV (NYSE: FUBO) due to concerns about competitive pressures in the streaming space [1] - Despite being a fan of the streaming industry, the analyst struggles with the challenges faced by fuboTV [1] Industry Focus - Crude Value Insights is an investing service and community that focuses on the oil and natural gas sector [1] - The service emphasizes cash flow analysis and identifies companies with strong value and growth prospects in the oil and gas industry [1] Service Offerings - Subscribers gain access to a 50+ stock model account, in-depth cash flow analyses of E&P (Exploration and Production) firms, and live chat discussions about the sector [2] - A two-week free trial is available for new subscribers to explore the service [2]

Revenue and Subscriber Growth - Fubo's subscription revenue is primarily generated through its website and third-party app stores, offering basic plans with optional add-ons and features[163][175] - Fubo's revenue and subscriber additions peak in Q3 and Q4, driven by the start of the NFL and college football seasons[173] - Total revenues for Q3 2024 increased to $386.2 million, up by $65.3 million (20.4%) compared to Q3 2023, driven by a $67.0 million increase in subscription revenue[189] - Subscription revenue for Q3 2024 rose to $356.6 million, up by 23.1% YoY, with $50.5 million from subscriber growth and $16.5 million from higher subscription prices and attachments[189] - North America paid subscribers increased to 1.6 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to 1.5 million in 2023, while ROW paid subscribers remained stable at 0.4 million[209] - North America ARPU increased to $85.64 for Q3 2024, up from $83.51 in Q3 2023, while ROW ARPU rose to $7.50 from $6.98 during the same period[211] - Subscription Revenue (GAAP) for Q3 2024 was $356.6 million, up from $289.6 million in Q3 2023, while Advertising Revenue (GAAP) decreased to $27.1 million from $30.6 million[214] Advertising Revenue and Competition - Fubo's advertising revenue is derived from fees charged for displaying ads within streamed content, competing with traditional media and other streaming platforms[171][177] - The company faces significant competition, including from Disney, Fox, and WBD's proposed sports streaming service, which could impact subscriber growth and profitability[168] - The company operates in a highly competitive environment, with aggressive promotions by competitors potentially affecting its value proposition[167] - Advertising revenue for Q3 2024 decreased by $3.5 million (11.4%) to $27.1 million due to fewer impressions sold[189] Operating Expenses and Costs - Subscriber-related expenses, primarily content streaming costs, represent the largest component of the company's operating expenses[172][178] - Subscriber-related expenses for Q3 2024 increased by $31.6 million (11.0%) to $317.7 million, primarily due to higher affiliate distribution costs and subscriber growth[191] - Broadcasting and transmission expenses for Q3 2024 decreased by $0.8 million (5.3%) to $14.4 million, driven by cloud infrastructure optimization[193] - Sales and marketing expenses for Q3 2024 decreased by $5.3 million (8.8%) to $55.2 million, mainly due to reduced marketing and stock-based compensation costs[195] - Technology and development expenses for Q3 2024 increased by $3.7 million (21.1%) to $21.2 million, primarily due to higher payroll costs[196] - General and administrative expenses for Q3 2024 increased by $10.7 million (67.3%) to $26.5 million, driven by higher legal fees and payroll expenses[197] Financial Performance and Profitability - Gross Profit for Q3 2024 was $54.1 million, a significant increase from $19.7 million in Q3 2023, with Gross Margin improving to 14.0% from 6.1%[213] - Net loss from continuing operations for Q3 2024 improved to $54.7 million, compared to $84.5 million in Q3 2023, reflecting better operational performance[187] - Other income for Q3 2024 was $4.1 million, a $5.6 million improvement YoY, primarily due to a $7.8 million gain on debt extinguishment[200] Cash Flow and Financial Position - The company repurchased $46.9 million principal amount of the 2026 Convertible Notes for $27.1 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2024[219] - The company sold 33.2 million shares of common stock under the ATM Program, generating net proceeds of approximately $43.3 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2024[220] - As of September 30, 2024, the company had $152.3 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash[221] - Net cash used in operating activities decreased to $96.5 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $173.0 million in the same period of 2023[226] - Net cash used in investing activities decreased to $11.3 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $16.1 million in the same period of 2023[227] - Net cash provided by financing activities decreased to $11.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $114.5 million for the same period in 2023, primarily due to lower proceeds from the ATM Program and repurchases of convertible notes[228] - Net cash used in operating activities increased to $2.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $2.6 million for the same period in 2023, driven by the wind-down of Fubo Sportsbook[230] - As of September 30, 2024, the company had $152.3 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, with $330.2 million of outstanding indebtedness, including $144.8 million of 2026 Convertible Notes and $177.5 million of 2029 Convertible Notes[241] Content and Business Model Risks - The company's ability to acquire and retain desirable content at competitive prices is critical, with increasing content costs posing a risk to margins[172] - Fubo's business model depends on growing ad inventory and shifting advertising dollars from traditional TV to connected TV, which may be impacted by macroeconomic conditions[171] - Fubo relies on paid marketing channels (e.g., social media, search advertising) to grow its brand and attract new subscribers, with potential risks if these channels become less efficient[166] Discontinued Operations and Impairment - The company ceased operations of its Fubo Sportsbook on October 17, 2022, with results reported as discontinued operations[164][165] - The company conducted a goodwill impairment test as of March 31, 2024, due to sustained decreases in stock price and market capitalization, and determined that goodwill was not impaired[234] - The March 31, 2024 goodwill impairment test allocated 50% to income-based and 50% to market-based approaches, with significant inputs including a control premium of 20.0%, a discount rate of 31.5%, and revenue multiples of 0.4x to 0.5x[236] Currency and International Revenue - Revenues denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar accounted for approximately 2.3% of consolidated revenues for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024[242]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Total revenue for Q3 2024 reached $377 million, up 21% year-over-year [5] - Paid subscribers grew to 1,613,000, a 9% year-over-year increase [5] - Adjusted EBITDA improved by $33.8 million in Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023, contributing to a nearly $100 million year-over-year improvement over the trailing 12 months [6] - Net loss improved to $54.7 million from $84.4 million in Q3 2023, with a per-share loss of $0.17 compared to $0.29 in Q3 2023 [14] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $27.6 million, a significant improvement from $61.4 million in Q3 2023 [14] - Adjusted EPS loss improved to $0.08 from $0.22 in Q3 2023 [14] - Free cash flow improved by $31 million, nearly achieving positive free cash flow for the quarter [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - North America revenue grew 21% year-over-year, driven by strong subscriber growth and monetization efforts [12] - Rest of World revenue grew 6% year-over-year, with subscriber growth reaching 378,000 [12][13] - Advertising revenue in North America declined 11% year-over-year due to tough comparisons and content portfolio adjustments [7] Market Data and Key Metrics - Nearly 50 million households in the US still subscribe to Legacy pay-TV, a decline of over 50% compared to 105 million in 2010 [8] - Approximately 30% of Legacy pay-TV customers have switched to virtual MVPDs over the trailing 12 months [8] - The company expects Q4 2024 North America subscriber growth of 4% year-over-year, with revenue projected to grow 9% year-over-year [17] - Rest of World subscriber guidance for Q4 2024 is a 14% year-over-year decline, with revenue expected to remain flat [19] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focused on its 2025 profitability target, emphasizing cost controls and revenue growth [6][12] - FuboTV is positioning itself as a leader in the virtual MVPD space, offering standalone subscriptions and a Fubo Free Tier to attract a broader consumer base [9][10] - The company believes the shift to virtual MVPDs is necessary to offset the decline of traditional pay-TV and enable media companies to grow revenue and profits [9] - FuboTV won a preliminary injunction against a sports streaming joint venture involving Disney, Fox, and Warner Brothers Discovery, citing anti-competitive practices [11] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is encouraged by the maturing streaming market and the company's ability to meet consumer needs [8] - The company expects to add gamification features to its interactive ad offerings in Q4 2024, enhancing the advertising experience [8] - Management remains confident in the company's long-term positioning despite short-term industry disruptions [9] - The company is committed to maintaining discipline in subscriber acquisition costs and monetization efforts [19] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 2024 with $152.3 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash [16] - FuboTV is focused on innovation and executional discipline to drive progress toward profitability goals [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why is Fubo Free Tier limited to prior and current subscribers? - The company is managing the Free Tier carefully to avoid impacting conversion rates and subscriber acquisition costs, with plans to eventually make it available to all users [23] Question: Is the virtual MVPD model sustainable long-term? - The company believes the virtual MVPD model remains viable, offering consumers a wide range of flexible and competitively priced options [25] Question: What drove advertising revenue dynamics in Q3 2024? - Political advertising contributed to a record year, but the drop of Discovery Scripts content earlier in the year impacted ad ARPU [27][28] Question: Are there other headwinds beyond Discovery affecting ad ARPU? - The company faced a tough 34% year-over-year comp in Q3 2024, but expects sequential and year-over-year improvements in ad ARPU for Q4 2024 [31] Question: How do standalone premium packages compare to the virtual MVPD in terms of profitability? - Standalone premium packages are expected to be accretive to margin dollars, with no significant cannibalization of the virtual MVPD product [31]

Core Insights - fuboTV Inc. reported revenue of $386.21 million for the quarter ended September 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.3% [1] - The company's EPS was -$0.08, an improvement from -$0.22 in the same quarter last year [1] - Revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $377.62 million by 2.27%, while the EPS surprise was 33.33% against the consensus estimate of -$0.12 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Paid Subscribers in the Rest of World streaming segment totaled 378,000, below the estimated 399,500 [3] - Paid Subscribers in North America reached 1,613,000, slightly below the estimate of 1,617,500 [3] - Advertising revenue was reported at $27.05 million, missing the average estimate of $29.30 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 11.6% [3] - Subscription revenue was $356.58 million, surpassing the estimate of $347.57 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 23.1% [3] - Other revenues amounted to $2.58 million, exceeding the average estimate of $1.48 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 258.1% [3] Stock Performance - fuboTV shares have returned +20% over the past month, contrasting with a -1% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [4] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [4]

FuboTV Inc. (FUBO) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.08 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.12. This compares to loss of $0.22 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 33.33%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.09 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.04, delivering a surprise of 55.56%.Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed co ...