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Pepsi: Forget GLP-1 And Dividend Cuts, These Are The Real Reasons Why It's Crashing
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-17 13:00
Core Viewpoint - Pepsi was once regarded as a top consumer staple due to its consistent dividend growth over 50 years and strong share performance, but recent developments may indicate a shift in its market position [1] Financial Performance - Pepsi has maintained a growing dividend for 50 consecutive years, highlighting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] - The company's share price performance has been strong historically, contributing to its reputation as a reliable investment [1] Market Position - The perception of Pepsi as a leading consumer staple has changed over the past two years, suggesting potential challenges in its market standing [1]
3 Refining & Marketing MLPs Poised to Defy Bearish Trends
ZACKS· 2025-05-16 17:21
Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining & Marketing MLP industry is facing significant challenges due to inflation, economic slowdowns, and lower commodity prices, which are compressing margins and affecting earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026. However, some midstream firms with fee-based models and diversified infrastructure are showing resilience and have outperformed the broader market over the past year [1][10]. Industry Overview - Master limited partnerships (MLPs) operate differently from regular stocks, with unitholders being partners in the business. These entities combine the tax benefits of limited partnerships with the liquidity of publicly traded securities, typically focusing on oil and natural gas pipelines and storage facilities [2]. Trends Impacting the Industry - Economic slowdowns and inflation risks are significant concerns, as they can impact volumes and profit margins for refining and marketing MLPs. A global economic slowdown could lead to reduced fuel consumption, further tightening margins [3]. - Midstream operators are demonstrating resilience through integrated, fee-based business models, which provide stable earnings despite global price fluctuations and seasonal disruptions [4]. - Lower commodity prices and uncertainties around tariffs, particularly on steel, could exert pressure on margins, potentially affecting customer drilling programs and long-term forecasts [5]. Industry Ranking and Outlook - The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining & Marketing MLP industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 166, placing it in the bottom 33% of 246 Zacks industries, indicating a bearish outlook [6][8]. - Earnings estimates for the industry have declined, with a 7.5% decrease for 2025 and a 2.3% decrease for 2026 over the past year, reflecting a negative sentiment among analysts [9]. Performance Metrics - The industry has outperformed both the broader Zacks Oil - Energy Sector and the S&P 500 over the past year, gaining 24.9% compared to a 6.5% decrease in the sector and an 11.2% increase in the S&P 500 [10]. - The current valuation of the industry, based on the trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio, is 10.83X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 16.60X, indicating a reasonable valuation relative to the broader market [13]. Notable Companies - **Global Partners LP**: A midstream logistics and fuel marketing firm with a strong terminal network and retail presence. It has a projected 17.8% year-over-year earnings per unit growth for 2025 and offers a 5.9% yield [15][16]. - **Targa Resources**: A leading midstream player specializing in natural gas services, with a projected 39.2% earnings per share growth for 2025. It has recently increased its dividend by 33% year-over-year [18][19]. - **Sunoco LP**: A major distributor of motor fuels with a projected 21% earnings per unit growth for 2025. It offers a 6.3% yield and is expanding through strategic acquisitions [21][22].
Bullish Case for These Energy Stocks: GLP, NFG, EPSN
ZACKS· 2025-05-15 21:15
Industry Overview - Energy stocks are gaining strength as macro conditions improve and demand drivers increase, with recession fears easing and tariff negotiations progressing [1] - The global buildout of data centers is expected to significantly increase electricity demand, benefiting utilities, natural gas providers, and midstream energy firms [2] Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices have shown technical strength, indicating a potential bottom, with recent price action suggesting a bullish reversal pattern [5][6] - A key resistance level has emerged near $64, and a breakout above this level could lead to a sustained move towards $70 [7] Company Highlights - **National Fuel Gas (NFG)**: - Vertically integrated natural gas company with a diverse business model, benefiting from multiple points along the energy value chain [8] - Currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) with upward earnings revisions indicating analyst confidence [9] - Shares trade at 11.7x forward earnings, below the 10-year median of 14x and the industry average of 16.8x, with projected earnings growth of 20.4% annually over the next three to five years, resulting in a PEG ratio of 0.58 [10] - **Epsilon Energy (EPSN)**: - Small-cap natural gas exploration and production company focused on the Appalachian Basin, emphasizing capital efficiency and shareholder returns [11] - Holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) with earnings estimates surging, including a 38% increase for the current quarter [14] - Technical analysis shows a bullish flag pattern, with a breakout above $7.30 likely to trigger further buying [15] - **Global Partners (GLP)**: - Diversified midstream energy company involved in the wholesale, distribution, and retail of petroleum products, with a strong cash flow and market exposure [16] - Offers a 6% dividend yield, supported by consistent cash generation and a 10% average annual dividend increase over the last five years [17] - Holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) with significant earnings estimate revisions, including a 42.9% increase for the current quarter [18] Investment Outlook - With improving macro conditions, rising energy demand, and technical support in crude oil prices, the outlook for energy stocks is strengthening [20] - National Fuel Gas, Epsilon Energy, and Global Partners present a compelling mix of value, growth, and yield, making them attractive options for investors [20]
Is Epsilon Energy (EPSN) Stock Outpacing Its Oils-Energy Peers This Year?
ZACKS· 2025-05-13 14:46
Company Overview - Epsilon Energy Ltd. (EPSN) is a notable stock within the Oils-Energy group, which consists of 246 companies [2] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on earnings estimates and revisions [3] Performance Comparison - Year-to-date, Epsilon Energy Ltd. has returned 7.3%, significantly outperforming the average loss of 3.1% in the Oils-Energy sector [4] - In comparison, Global Partners LP (GLP) has returned 0.2% since the beginning of the year, also outperforming the sector [4] Industry Context - Epsilon Energy Ltd. is part of the Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, which ranks 142 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with an average loss of 5.7% this year [6] - Global Partners LP belongs to the Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing - Master Limited Partnerships industry, currently ranked 166, with a year-to-date decline of 2.6% [7] Analyst Sentiment - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Epsilon Energy's full-year earnings has increased by 29.7% over the past quarter, reflecting stronger analyst sentiment and an improving earnings outlook [3]
Global Partners LP(GLP) - 2025 Q1 - Quarterly Report
2025-05-08 17:41
Financial Performance - Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $18,684, compared to a net loss of $5,602 for the same period in 2024 [193]. - EBITDA for the same period increased to $91,858, up from $56,943 year-over-year, representing a growth of 61.5% [193]. - Distributable cash flow rose significantly to $45,689, compared to $15,785 in the prior year, marking an increase of 189.5% [193]. - Total sales for the wholesale segment reached $3,190,436, an increase from $2,639,348, reflecting a growth of 20.9% [193]. - Product margin for gasoline and gasoline blendstocks increased to $57,169, up from $29,761, indicating a growth of 92.5% [193]. - Total sales increased to $4.6 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2025, up $446.8 million or 11% from $4.1 billion in 2024 [206]. - Gross profit rose to $255.2 million, an increase of $40.1 million or 19% compared to $215.1 million in the prior year [209]. - EBITDA for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $91.9 million, compared to $56.9 million in 2024, reflecting a significant increase [199]. - Distributable cash flow increased to $45.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, up from $15.8 million in 2024, representing a growth of 189% [203]. Operational Overview - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the company sold approximately $4.5 billion of refined petroleum products, gasoline blendstocks, renewable fuels, and crude oil [155]. - The company operates a portfolio of 1,561 gasoline stations, including 296 directly operated convenience stores, primarily in the Northeast [164]. - The company operates under three segments: Wholesale, Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations, and Commercial [158]. - The Commercial segment includes sales and deliveries to public sector and large commercial end users of unbranded gasoline, home heating oil, diesel, and other petroleum products [166]. - Seasonal demand for gasoline is typically higher in the second and third quarters, while home heating oil and residual oil demand peaks in the first and fourth quarters [168]. - The company engages in the logistics of selling, gathering, blending, storing, and transporting refined petroleum products and renewable fuels [158]. - The company relies on marine, pipeline, rail, and truck transportation services for its operations, and disruptions in these services could adversely affect financial performance [146]. Financial Position and Capital Expenditures - The company increased its working capital revolving credit facility from $950 million to $1 billion as part of the credit agreement amendment [157]. - Working capital decreased by $30.7 million to $176.5 million as of March 31, 2025, primarily due to a $125.2 million increase in the current portion of the working capital revolving credit facility and a $10.4 million increase in accounts payable [226]. - Total contractual obligations as of March 31, 2025, were $2.76 billion, with $347.9 million due in the remainder of 2025 and $2.41 billion due beyond 2025 [230]. - Maintenance capital expenditures for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were approximately $9.6 million, compared to $11.7 million for the same period in 2024 [233]. - Expansion capital expenditures for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were approximately $8.3 million, up from $4.9 million in the same period in 2024 [236]. - The company expects maintenance capital expenditures of $60.0 million to $70.0 million and expansion capital expenditures of $75.0 million to $85.0 million for the year 2025 [237]. Risks and Challenges - The company is exposed to risks from changes in commodity prices, which could adversely affect financial condition and results of operations [150]. - The company has contractual obligations for certain transportation assets, and a decline in demand could negatively impact financial condition and cash available for distribution [146]. - Higher prices and inflation may reduce demand for gasoline and convenience store sales, negatively affecting financial performance [173]. - Tariffs and import duties on petroleum products could materially impact operations and costs [173]. - Increased competition from alternative fuels and changing consumer preferences may reduce demand for heating oil and residual oil [173]. - Changes in government mandates and tax credits could adversely affect the availability and pricing of renewable fuels, impacting sales [174]. - Disruptions in transportation services, such as hurricanes or labor disputes, could adversely impact logistics and financial results [171]. - Joint ventures may not always align with the company's strategic objectives, potentially affecting expected returns [171]. Debt and Financing - The company has a $1.50 billion senior secured credit facility, which was amended to extend the maturity date to March 20, 2028 and increase the working capital revolving credit facility to $1.0 billion [251]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company had $354.7 million outstanding on the working capital revolving credit facility and $167.0 million on the revolving credit facility, with total remaining availability for borrowings and letters of credit at $0.91 billion [258]. - The average interest rates for the credit agreement were 6.6% for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to 7.4% for the same period in 2024 [257]. - Total borrowings outstanding under the credit agreement amounted to $521.7 million as of March 31, 2025, with a potential annual increase in interest expense of approximately $5.2 million from a 1% rise in interest rates [272]. - The company had 7.00% senior notes due 2027, 6.875% senior notes due 2029, and 8.250% senior notes due 2032 outstanding as of March 31, 2025 [264]. Derivative Instruments and Risk Management - The company utilizes various derivative instruments to manage exposure to commodity risk, including exchange-traded futures contracts and over-the-counter transactions [270]. - The fair value of all commodity risk derivative instruments was $(11,122) thousand as of March 31, 2025, with a potential loss of $(47,100) thousand from a 10% price decrease [277]. - The brokerage margin balance was $18.4 million at March 31, 2025, reflecting the company's open market positions and commodity exchange requirements [278]. - The company anticipates some nonperformance by counterparties to its derivative contracts but does not expect it to materially affect its financial condition [279]. - Financial covenants require the company to maintain certain minimum working capital amounts and leverage ratios, with compliance confirmed as of March 31, 2025 [260].
Global Partners LP(GLP) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-08 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for the first quarter was $18.7 million compared to a net loss of $5.6 million last year [7] - EBITDA increased to $91.9 million from $56.9 million year over year [7] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $91.1 million from $56 million in the prior year [8] - Distributable cash flow was $45.7 million compared to $15.8 million last year, with adjusted DCF at $46.4 million versus $16 million [8] - TTM distribution coverage as of March 31, 2025, was 2.03x or 1.96x after factoring in distributions to preferred unitholders [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - GDSO product margin increased by $200,000 to $187.9 million [10] - Gasoline distribution product margin rose by $4.2 million to $125.8 million, reflecting higher fuel margins [10] - Station operations product margin decreased by $4 million to $62.1 million due to sales and conversions of certain company-operated sites [10] - Wholesale segment product margin increased by $44.2 million to $93.6 million, driven by favorable market conditions [11] - Product margin from gasoline and gasoline blend stocks increased by $27.4 million to $57.1 million [11] - Product margin from distillates and other oils increased by $16.8 million to $36.5 million, aided by colder winter weather [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The first quarter experienced a 9% colder winter compared to the prior year, positively impacting the wholesale distillate business [21] - A brief period of tariffs on Canadian oil created volatility, benefiting the company, although the impact was short-lived [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing terminal assets and expanding its midstream footprint to better serve customers [5] - Ongoing portfolio optimization has led to a decrease in company-operated sites, aligning with strategic goals [10] - The company aims to maintain financial discipline while pursuing organic growth and selective acquisitions [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and commitment to long-term growth for unitholders [14] - The integration of terminal assets has enhanced capacity and market opportunities [21] - Management noted that the current operating environment is dynamic, with ongoing reviews of retail business assets [18] Other Important Information - The Board increased the quarterly cash distribution on common units to $0.07 per unit, equating to $2.98 on an annualized basis [6] - The company will participate in several upcoming investor conferences [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Opportunities in terminal acquisitions and capital repositioning - Management is continuously reviewing retail business assets and is opportunistic in capital allocation, focusing on competitive advantages and higher returns [18][20] Question: Market conditions contributing to wholesale performance - A colder winter and the integration of terminal assets contributed to strong wholesale performance, with a normalized quarter compared to the previous year [21][22] Question: Impact of tariffs on market conditions - A brief period of tariffs created volatility but had no significant ongoing impact on supply or margins; potential consumer impact on store sales is yet to be determined [24][25]
Global Partners LP(GLP) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-08 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for Q1 2025 was $18.7 million compared to a net loss of $5.6 million in Q1 2024 [7] - EBITDA increased to $91.9 million from $56.9 million year over year [7] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $91.1 million from $56 million in the prior year [7] - Distributable cash flow (DCF) was $45.7 million in Q1 2025, up from $15.8 million in the prior year [7] - Adjusted DCF increased to $46.4 million compared to $16 million last year [7] - TTM distribution coverage as of March 31, 2025, was 2.03x, or 1.96x after factoring in distributions to preferred unitholders [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - GDSO product margin increased by $200,000 to $187.9 million in the quarter [10] - Gasoline distribution product margin rose by $4.2 million to $125.8 million, reflecting higher fuel margins [10] - Station operations product margin decreased by $4 million to $62.1 million due to sales and conversions of certain company-operated sites [10] - Wholesale segment product margin increased by $44.2 million to $93.6 million, driven by favorable market conditions [11] - Product margin from gasoline and gasoline blend stocks increased by $27.4 million to $57.1 million [11] - Product margin from distillates and other oils rose by $16.8 million to $36.5 million, aided by colder winter weather [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Northeast experienced a colder winter, which positively impacted the wholesale distillate business [20] - Market conditions were favorable due to the integration of terminal assets, allowing the company to capitalize on market opportunities [20] - A brief period of tariffs on Canadian oil created volatility that benefited the company, although it was short-lived [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing terminal assets and maintaining financial discipline while pursuing organic growth and selective acquisitions [6] - The strategy includes continuous review of retail business and assets to maximize operational efficiency [18] - The company aims to leverage its scale and integrated model to navigate disruptions and find opportunities [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and commitment to delivering long-term growth for unitholders [14] - The company is optimistic about its ability to adapt to market conditions and capitalize on opportunities as they arise [14] Other Important Information - The Board increased the quarterly cash distribution on common units to $0.07 per unit, equating to $2.98 on an annualized basis [6] - Upcoming participation in several investor conferences was announced, including the EIC's Annual Energy Infrastructure Investor Conference [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on GDSO and terminal opportunities - Management indicated ongoing reviews of retail business and asset optimization, emphasizing opportunistic approaches to acquisitions [18] Question: Market conditions contributing to wholesale performance - Management noted favorable market conditions, including a colder winter and the integration of terminal assets, which enhanced capacity and market opportunities [20] Question: Impact of tariffs on market conditions - Management clarified that the impact of tariffs was brief and did not significantly affect supply or margins, though it may influence store sales in the future [23]
Global Partners LP(GLP) - 2025 Q1 - Quarterly Results
2025-05-08 12:11
Exhibit 99.1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contacts: Gregory B. Hanson Sean T. Geary Global Partners LP Global Partners LP (781) 894-8800 (781) 894-8800 Chief Financial Officer Chief Legal Officer and Secretary Global Partners LP Reports First-Quarter 2025 Financial Results Waltham, Mass., May 8, 2025 – Global Partners LP (NYSE: GLP) today reported financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025. CEO Commentary "Global delivered solid first-quarter results, highlighting the strength of our integrated a ...
Vivani Medical to Present at the American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists' “Beyond GLP1s: Where the Science will Take Business Next” Virtual Workshop
GlobeNewswire News Room· 2025-05-07 12:30
Core Viewpoint - Vivani Medical, Inc. is advancing its miniature, ultra long-acting drug implants aimed at improving patient adherence in chronic disease treatment, particularly in the GLP-1 drug class [1][4][5] Company Overview - Vivani Medical, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapeutic implants using its proprietary NanoPortal™ technology [4] - The company’s lead programs include NPM-115 (exenatide implant) and NPM-139 (semaglutide implant), designed for chronic weight management with administration once or twice a year [4] - Vivani is also developing NPM-119, a six-month GLP-1 implant for type 2 diabetes treatment [4] Upcoming Events - CEO Adam Mendelsohn will present on "Addressing Patient Adherence: Advances in Drug Delivery" at the AAPS workshop on May 14, 2025 [2] - A panel discussion featuring Dr. Mendelsohn will address key hurdles and trends in GLP-1 drug development on the same day [3] Market Context - Medication non-adherence affects approximately 50% of patients, contributing to over $500 billion in annual avoidable healthcare costs and 125,000 preventable deaths in the U.S. [5] - The current GLP-1 landscape includes over 50 new molecular entities in clinical development, positioning Vivani's differentiated portfolio as a potential attractive option for patients and healthcare providers [5]
Will Speciality and GLP-1 Drugs Help COR Beat Q2 Earnings Estimates?
ZACKS· 2025-05-05 12:25
Core Viewpoint - Cencora (COR) is expected to report second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 7, with anticipated revenue of $74.82 billion, reflecting a 9.4% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share of $4.08, indicating a 7.4% improvement from the prior year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Cencora's U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment is projected to have achieved 14% revenue growth to $74 billion and a 10% increase in segment operating income, driven by strong demand for specialty distribution and GLP-1 drugs [2][3] - The company is expected to report revenues of $66.61 billion for the GLP-1 drug segment, with adjusted operating income estimated at $901.9 million [4][7] - The international Healthcare Solutions segment is anticipated to show 5.5% revenue growth, but a 3% decrease in reported operating income, primarily due to a stronger U.S. dollar affecting reported growth [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Cencora's strong distribution execution and the growing adoption of biosimilars position the company for consistent revenue performance [3] - The company faces challenges from declining COVID-19 vaccine contributions, which may negatively impact segment sales and margins [4] - A continuation of softer performance in specialty logistics, particularly World Courier, is expected due to muted activity in clinical trials and cell and gene therapies [6] Group 3: Earnings Expectations - The model predicts an earnings beat for Cencora, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [8][9]