Key Takeaways ExxonMobil projects up to $300M Q3 earnings rise from oil prices and strong refining margins.XOM forecasts $300M to $700M in Energy Products earnings on favorable industry refining trends.XOM's stock has fallen 4% in a year, lagging the industry's 1% composite gain.Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) recently announced its expectations for third-quarter 2025 earnings. The large integrated energy company expects its earnings to increase sequentially by up to $300 million, solely due to the change in ...

Group 1 - UBS expects Budweiser APAC (01876) to see a turnaround in the Chinese market by Q4 2025 due to low base effects and stabilization of average selling prices, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been slightly raised from HKD 9.05 to HKD 9.07, implying a projected EV/EBITDA of 7 times for 2026, based on a 5% CAGR in EBITDA from 2025 to 2027 [1] - UBS conducted an on-site visit in Fujian, including factory and market tours, and discussions with Budweiser APAC's CFO, revealing ongoing challenges in the Chinese beer market due to a decline in offline channels such as restaurants and nightlife [1] Group 2 - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 3% to 2%, considering a projected decline in sales in China during the second half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer LP (ET) has outperformed the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry, gaining 7.9% over the past year while the industry declined by 0.8% [1][8]. Performance Summary - Energy Transfer is trading above its 50-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a bullish trend [6]. - The company secures 90% of its revenues from fee-based contracts, providing stable cash flow [10]. - ET's current trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA is 9.29X, below the industry average of 10.65X, suggesting it is undervalued [21]. Growth Factors - Energy Transfer has a vast midstream network of nearly 140,000 miles of pipelines, enhancing its competitive edge [11]. - The company is strategically positioned to meet rising U.S. natural gas demand through its extensive storage network [12]. - Strategic acquisitions have bolstered ET's operations, enhancing scale and efficiency [13]. - The company plans to invest $5 billion in capital spending to strengthen its infrastructure [14]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 8.59% for 2025 and 10.91% for 2026 [15]. - Current estimates for 2025 earnings per unit are $1.39, with a high estimate of $1.46 and a low estimate of $1.31 [17]. Cash Distribution - ET's current quarterly cash distribution rate is 33 cents per common unit, with management raising distribution rates 16 times in the past five years [19]. Comparison with Peers - Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) has seen a decline of 1.9% over the past year, contrasting with ET's growth [6]. - Delek Logistics Partner LP (DKL) has a higher distribution rate but also a higher payout ratio of 151% [20]. Conclusion - Energy Transfer is well-positioned to benefit from increasing U.S. oil, natural gas, and NGL production, supported by fee-based earnings and strategic acquisitions [26].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Kingsoft Holdings in 1H25 exceeded expectations, with significant growth in both total revenue and EBITDA, driven by a recovery in business volume and the introduction of new products [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached $342 million, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27%, recovering to 38% of the level in 1H19 [1]. - Total gaming revenue was $332 million, also reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase and a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase, recovering to 38% of the level in 1H19 [1]. - EBITDA amounted to $200 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 261% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 36%, recovering to 61% of the level in 1H19, surpassing the forecast of $188 million [1]. Development Trends - Infrastructure improvements and increased flight frequency have boosted visitor numbers, driving growth in the mid-market segment [1]. - The number of Chinese tourists visiting Cambodia increased by 51% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter in 1H25, with business travelers increasing by 46% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The new Decho International Airport is set to open in September 2025, with a passenger capacity of 13 million, while the existing Phnom Penh International Airport will cease operations [1]. VIP Business Growth - The direct VIP business turnover increased by 88% year-on-year and 87% quarter-on-quarter in 1H25, driven by the rise in business travelers and expatriates [2]. - The acceleration in foreign direct investment in Cambodia, particularly following Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit in April, has contributed to this growth [2]. Future Plans and Dividend - The Naga 3 project is expected to announce more details in 1H26, with management anticipating more iconic tourist attractions and amenities [2]. - The company declared an interim dividend of $0.0101 per share, corresponding to a 30% payout ratio, compared to a historical level of 60% [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 6%, reaching $406 million and $481 million, respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to 7 times the 2025 EV/EBITDA, with a target price raised by 12% to HKD 6.50, indicating a 12% upside potential from the current price [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Metals & Mining** industry, utilizing the **HOLT valuation framework** to analyze various sub-sectors and companies within this space [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Valuation Methodology - HOLT's valuation framework is based on a **discounted cash flow model**, emphasizing **Cash Flows Return on Investment (CFROI)** as a key metric for comparing performance across companies and time [1][13]. - The report suggests that there is no single valuation methodology for metals & mining; a combination of **short-term trading multiples (EV/EBITDA)**, cash returns, and **Net Present Value (NPV)** is preferred [1]. Sub-Sector Valuation Insights - **Gold**: - Gold stocks are seen as **undemanding** with market-embedded expectations around **6%**, compared to near-term CFROI forecasts of **~8%** [3][29]. - Top picks include **ABX**, **KGC** in North America, and **EDV** in Europe [3][31]. - **Aluminium**: - Aluminium stocks are viewed positively, trading at a **15-30% discount** to historical EV/EBITDA averages [4][36]. - Preferred stock for exposure is **NHY** [4][37]. - **Copper**: - Copper stocks are considered **expensive** with high market expectations, trading close to historical averages [5][50]. - Recent downgrades include **FCX**, **SCCO**, and **LUN** to Neutral, and **KGHM** to Sell due to a cautious outlook [5][51]. - **Diversified Miners**: - Market expectations are in line with forecasts at **~4%**, but these stocks trade at a premium compared to other sub-sectors [8][43]. - Preference for **GLEN** over **RIO**, **BHP**, and **Vale** due to better capital discipline [8][44]. - **Steel**: - EU steel stocks are pricing in low returns due to high capital intensity and regulatory uncertainties, while US steel stocks are expected to perform better due to protective tariffs [9][57]. - Preferred US steel stocks include **NUE** and **STLD** [9][57]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the **structural challenges** faced by the steel industry in Europe, including high costs related to CO2 emissions and energy [58][59]. - The **EU Steel Action Plan** may provide support for returns on decarbonization projects, potentially leading to a re-rating of the sector [60]. - The **HOLT methodology** does not assign ratings or target prices but serves as an analytical tool for evaluating company performance [66][67]. Conclusion - The Metals & Mining industry presents varied investment opportunities across sub-sectors, with specific stocks recommended based on their valuation relative to market expectations and forecasts. The report emphasizes a selective approach, particularly in the context of changing commodity prices and regulatory environments.

Valuation Assessment - Enterprise Multiple (EV/EBITDA) helps assess company valuation [1] - The metric is used in comparing industry peers for investors and analysts [1] Formula and Application - The report explains the formula for Enterprise Multiple (EV/EBITDA) [1] - The report details applications of EV/EBITDA [1]

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is expected to report a significant decline in second-quarter earnings and revenues due to lower oil and natural gas prices, with earnings estimated at $1.49 per share, reflecting a 30.4% year-over-year decrease [2][6]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is $82.8 billion, indicating an 11% decline from the previous year [2]. - XOM has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.58%, but the current model does not predict an earnings beat for this quarter [3][4]. Market Conditions - The average spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in the second quarter were lower than in the first quarter, with prices of $63.54, $62.17, and $68.17 per barrel for April, May, and June respectively, compared to $75.74, $71.53, and $68.24 per barrel in the first quarter [7]. - Lower oil prices are expected to reduce XOM's upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion, while natural gas price changes may decrease profits by $300 million to $700 million [8]. Valuation Metrics - XOM's current EV/EBITDA ratio is 6.90, which is above the industry average of 4.35, indicating that the stock may be overvalued despite its lower price compared to peers like BP and Chevron [6][11]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources enhances XOM's production capabilities in the Permian Basin, a region known for low production costs [13]. - The company is also investing in alternative energy projects, such as carbon capture and lithium battery technology, which present potential growth opportunities but require significant capital [14]. Competitive Landscape - Other major energy players like Chevron and BP are also set to report second-quarter earnings, with Chevron having a positive Earnings ESP of +3.63% and BP at 0.00% [15][16].

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive [2] Core Insights - Internet names were flat last week, with notable performances: AMZN increased by 1% due to Prime Day, while GOOGL and META remained flat [2][10] - The report highlights the upcoming 2Q EPS, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - AMZN, GOOGL, and META are trading at 29X, 18X, and 26X their 2026 EPS estimates, reflecting changes of -6%, -2%, and +16% compared to the trailing twelve months average [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall market performance for the Internet sector was flat, with SPX and NDX showing no significant movement [10] - Specific companies showed varied performance: U increased by 11%, while LYFT and CHWY decreased by 8% each [2] Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for major companies, with AMZN, GOOGL, and META trading at 3.4X, 5.4X, and 9.7X EV/Revenue for 2025 estimates [4] - The NTM EV/EBITDA for AMZN, GOOGL, and META is 13.8X, 11.5X, and 14.7X, respectively, compared to their historical averages [8] Company-Specific Insights - AMZN's market cap is $2,428,641 million, with a 1-week performance of +0.7% [5] - GOOGL's market cap stands at $2,214,715 million, with a slight increase of 0.4% [5] - META's market cap is $1,858,351 million, showing a minor decline of -0.2% [5] Sector Analysis - The digital ads sector saw a market-cap weighted average performance of 0.0%, while e-commerce had a 0.7% increase [5] - The travel sector's market-cap weighted average performance was 0.1%, indicating stability [5]

Core Insights - Enbridge Inc. (ENB) is trading at a premium valuation of 15.36x trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA compared to the industry average of 14.05x, indicating strong market positioning [1][7] - The company has a substantial C$28 billion project backlog that is expected to generate incremental cash flows through 2029, enhancing its revenue stability [6][7] Company Overview - Enbridge is a leading midstream energy player in North America, operating the world's longest crude oil and liquids transportation network, spanning 18,085 miles, and a gas transportation pipeline network of 71,308 miles [4] - The company transports 20% of the total natural gas consumed in the United States, generating stable, fee-based revenues from long-term contracts, which minimizes exposure to commodity price volatility [5][9] Financial Stability - 98% of ENB's EBITDA is supported by regulated or take-or-pay contracts, providing a buffer against market volatility [7][9] - More than 80% of the company's profits come from activities that allow automatic price or fee increases, ensuring protection against rising costs and inflation [9] Market Performance - Over the past year, ENB's stock has gained 42.6%, outperforming the industry composite's 38.3% and other competitors like Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMI) [13] - The stock's performance reflects positive developments in the company's operations and market conditions [13] Integration Challenges - Enbridge's recent acquisitions of large U.S. gas utility companies are still in the integration phase, which may pose risks if the integration does not meet expectations [16]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer LP (ET) has shown a strong performance with a 6% increase in stock price over the last month, outperforming the industry growth of 3.4% [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Energy Transfer operates a vast pipeline network exceeding 130,000 miles across 44 U.S. states, focusing on strategic acquisitions and organic growth [7] - The company has significant export capabilities, with the ability to export over 1.1 million barrels per day of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and 1.9 million barrels per day of crude oil, holding an estimated 20% share of the global NGL export market [9] - Nearly 90% of Energy Transfer's revenues come from fee-based contracts, providing stable cash flow and reducing exposure to commodity price volatility [12] Group 2: Recent Developments - Energy Transfer is expanding its natural gas liquids export facilities to meet rising global demand and has entered agreements to supply natural gas for new gas-fired power plants [2][10] - The company has received connection requests from nearly 200 data centers across 14 states, indicating strong demand from the digital infrastructure sector [11] Group 3: Financial Performance - The current quarterly cash distribution rate is 32.75 cents per common unit, with management raising distribution rates 14 times in the past five years [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 12.5% for 2025 and 0.49% for 2026 [14] - Energy Transfer units are trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 10.32X, which is below the industry average of 11.6X, suggesting the firm is undervalued [17] Group 4: Comparative Analysis - Energy Transfer's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 11.47%, lower than the industry average of 13.95% [20] - In comparison, ONEOK's ROE stands at 15.58%, indicating stronger profitability [22]