Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering Gulfport Energy (GPOR) , which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry.This natural gas producer has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 18.46%.For the last reported quarter, Gulfport came out wit ...

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We are currently offering a free two-week trial to Distressed Value Investing . Join our community to receive exclusive research about various companies and other opportunities, along with full access to my portfolio of historic research that now includes over 1,000 reports on over 100 companies.With natural gas strip prices at around $4.50 for 2025 now, Gulfport Energy (NYSE: GPOR ) may be able to generate over $650 million in free cash flow before spending on discretionary acreage acquisitions.Aaron Chow, ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, net cash provided by operating activities before changes in working capital totaled approximately $185 million, more than triple the capital expenditures for the quarter [23] - Reported adjusted EBITDA was $203 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $125 million for the same period, marking the best quarter of 2024 from an adjusted free cash flow perspective [24] - Cash operating costs for Q4 totaled $1.19 per million cubic feet equivalent, better than analyst expectations and within the full year 2024 guidance range [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company plans to maintain flat total production while growing expected liquids production by 30% year over year in 2025 [9] - In 2024, Gulfport drilled 21 gross wells, primarily focused in the Utica, and completed 19 gross wells, including three SCOOP wells and twelve Utica dry gas wells [16] - The 2025 development program is expected to deliver a reduction of annual operated drilling and completion capital on a per foot basis by approximately 20% compared to 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The all-in realized price for Q4 was $3.36 per Mcfe, a $0.57 premium to NYMEX Henry Hub index prices [28] - The company has downside protection covering roughly 50% of 2025 natural gas production at an average floor price of $3.62 per MMBtu [29] - The liquidity as of December 31, 2024, totaled $900 million, providing significant flexibility for future development needs [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The 2025 development program focuses on sustaining exposure to a constructive natural gas environment and enhancing hydrocarbon diversification by targeting lean condensate Utica and low-cost Marcellus condensate windows [9] - The company aims to return substantially all 2025 adjusted free cash flow, excluding discretionary acreage acquisitions, through common stock repurchases [10] - Gulfport's strategy includes continuous operational improvements and optimizing asset development to maximize free cash flow generation [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to generate significant free cash flow in 2025, potentially more than double compared to 2024 [31] - The company remains optimistic about the natural gas price outlook for 2025 and 2026, with plans to maintain significant upside through collar structures on hedges [29] - Management highlighted the strong operational performance and the potential for further capital and production efficiency improvements in future years [36] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 7% of its common shares outstanding in 2024, returning 96% of available adjusted free cash flow to shareholders [15] - The proved reserve base increased by approximately 6% when excluding the impact of pricing revisions, reflecting high-quality inventory additions and operational efficiencies [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Liquids volume sustainability and bolt-on opportunities - Management confirmed that the 30% liquids growth is sustainable and highlighted the flexibility to allocate resources between gas and liquids [41][43] - The preference for bolt-on opportunities leans towards sizable undeveloped assets rather than PDP-heavy assets [45][46] Question: Capital efficiency and future capital allocation - Management indicated that front-loaded capital programs are conducive to driving capital efficiencies and will likely continue in the future [54] - The company continuously assesses capital allocation options, focusing on share repurchases and inventory additions [58][60] Question: Development strategy and inventory allocation - Management explained the rationale behind the Marcellus development pace and emphasized a long-term commitment to the area [72][74] - The company plans to develop its Marcellus asset over the next several years, utilizing the identified locations [74] Question: Production cadence and capital efficiency - Management noted that production is expected to increase throughout the year, with a focus on optimizing the timing of well turn-ins [82][84] - There is ongoing potential for further efficiency improvements, although gains may be more moderate compared to previous years [87] Question: NGL realizations and market conditions - Management attributed improved NGL realizations to favorable contract terms and strong market conditions for propane and butane [98]

Financial Performance - Net cash provided by operating activities was $650.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $723.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to a decrease in natural gas revenues[305]. - The company reported a net change in cash and cash equivalents of $(456,000) for the year ended December 31, 2024[305]. - The company incurred $454.1 million in additions to oil and natural gas properties for the year ended December 31, 2024[305]. - The company recognized ceiling test impairments of $373.2 million in 2024, with no impairments recorded for the year ended December 31, 2023[317]. - The company paid $4.2 million in cash dividends to preferred stockholders in 2024, a decrease from $4.8 million in 2023[310]. Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaled $430.1 million, with $327.4 million allocated to drilling and completion activities[301]. - Cash capital expenditures for oil and natural gas properties in 2024 totaled $454.1 million, a decrease of 15.5% from $537.4 million in 2023[307]. - Total oil and natural gas property expenditures in 2024 were $454.1 million, which included drilling and completion costs of $325.1 million[307]. - The company expects its drilling and completion capital expenditures for 2025 to be in the range of $335 million to $355 million, aiming for production of approximately 1,040 to 1,065 MMcfe per day[302]. Debt and Obligations - Total contractual cash obligations as of December 31, 2024, amounted to $2,102.6 million, including long-term debt principal of $713.7 million and interest of $220.9 million[297]. - The company’s debt activity resulted in a net increase of $32.8 million during the year ended December 31, 2024[305]. - The company had $956.0 million in borrowings and $1.0 billion in repayments on its Credit Facility during 2024, with a loss on debt extinguishment of $13.4 million[307]. - The company incurred debt issuance and loan commitment fees of $14.9 million in 2024, up from $7.1 million in 2023, primarily due to the issuance of the 2029 Senior Notes[308]. - The company had $10.0 million in borrowings outstanding on its Credit Facility as of February 20, 2025[307]. Shareholder Activities - The company repurchased 1.2 million shares for approximately $184.5 million at a weighted average price of $153.35 per share in 2024, compared to 1.5 million shares for $148.9 million at a weighted average price of $101.53 per share in 2023[309]. - The company exchanged $23.6 million in shares for tax withholdings in 2024, significantly up from $3.2 million in 2023[311]. Market Conditions - During 2024, WTI prices ranged from $66.73 to $87.69 per barrel, while the Henry Hub spot market price of natural gas ranged from $1.21 to $13.20 per MMBtu[303]. Operational Activities - In the year ended December 31, 2024, the company spud 20 gross (19.7 net) operated wells in the Utica formation at a total cost of approximately $259.8 million[306]. - The company entered into natural gas, oil, and NGL derivative contracts for 2025, including swaps for 18,301 MMBtu/d at a weighted average price of $3.85[295]. - The company has $63.8 million in letters of credit and $44.9 million in surety bonds as part of its off-balance sheet arrangements[300].

Core Insights - Gulfport Energy reported a revenue of $239.87 million for Q4 2024, marking a 51% year-over-year decline and a surprise of -26.09% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $324.54 million [1] - The company achieved an EPS of $4.80, which is an increase from $3.10 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of +23.08% against the consensus estimate of $3.90 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gulfport's shares have returned +3.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.8% change, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [3] - Average price for NGL was $30.98 per barrel, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $27.48 per barrel [4] - Daily production volume for gas equivalent was 1,055,472 Mcfe/D, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of 1,067,496 Mcfe/D [4] - Daily production volume for natural gas was 958,075 Mcf/D, compared to the two-analyst average estimate of 974,991.8 Mcf/D [4] - Average price for natural gas was $2.99 per thousand cubic feet, above the two-analyst average estimate of $2.91 [4] - Daily production volume for NGL was 11,004 BBL/D, surpassing the two-analyst average estimate of 10,777.44 BBL/D [4] - Average price for oil and condensate was $65.75 per barrel, slightly higher than the two-analyst average estimate of $65.12 per barrel [4] - Daily production volume for oil and condensate was 5,229 BBL/D, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of 4,839.98 BBL/D [4] - Revenues from natural gas sales were $221.55 million, lower than the $244.09 million estimated by two analysts, but represented a +4.2% change year-over-year [4] - Revenues from oil and condensate sales were $31.29 million, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $26.80 million, with a year-over-year change of +32.4% [4] - Revenues from natural gas liquid sales were $31.99 million, above the two-analyst average estimate of $28.16 million, reflecting a +19.4% change year-over-year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gulfport Energy reported quarterly earnings of $4.80 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.90 per share, and showing an increase from $3.10 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 23.08% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $239.87 million for the quarter ended December 2024, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 26.09%, and is a decline from year-ago revenues of $489.11 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Gulfport has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times but has not beaten consensus revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - Gulfport shares have decreased by about 1% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.7% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] Earnings Estimate Revisions - The trend for estimate revisions ahead of the earnings release was favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $4.80 on revenues of $324.06 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $22.29 on revenues of $1.38 billion [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently in the top 22% of Zacks industries, suggesting that stocks in the top 50% outperform those in the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8] - Another company in the same industry, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc., is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -30%, with a recent 19.4% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate [9]

Production Volumes - Total production volumes for natural gas increased to 967,633 Mcf/day in 2024, up from 959,743 Mcf/day in 2023, representing a 0.9% increase[5] - Oil and condensate production volumes rose to 3,986 Bbl/day in 2024, compared to 3,733 Bbl/day in 2023, marking a 6.8% increase[8] - NGL production volumes decreased to 10,431 Bbl/day in 2024 from 12,018 Bbl/day in 2023, a decline of 13.2%[8] Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q4 2024 were $239.9 million, down from $489.1 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a 51.0% decrease[10] - Net loss attributable to common stockholders for Q4 2024 was $274.2 million, compared to a net income of $209.0 million in Q4 2023[10] - Total revenues decreased to $958.1 million in 2024 from $1.79 billion in 2023, a decline of approximately 46.4%[12] - Natural gas sales fell to $714.2 million in 2024, down from $831.8 million in 2023, representing a decrease of about 14.1%[12] - Net loss attributable to common stockholders was $265.6 million in 2024, compared to a net income of $1.25 billion in 2023[12] - Operating expenses increased to $1.19 billion in 2024, up from $816.9 million in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 46%[12] Asset and Debt Management - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $1.47 million at the end of 2024 from $1.93 million at the end of 2023, a decline of about 23.9%[14] - Total assets decreased to $2.87 billion in 2024 from $3.27 billion in 2023, a reduction of approximately 12.2%[16] - Long-term debt increased to $702.9 million in 2024 from $667.4 million in 2023, an increase of about 5.3%[16] Impairments and Guidance - The company reported an impairment of oil and natural gas properties amounting to $342.7 million in Q4 2024[10] - The company reported an impairment of oil and natural gas properties amounting to $373.2 million in 2024[12] - The company provided 2025 guidance, indicating expectations for production growth and cost management strategies[2] - The company provided guidance for 2025 based on commodity strip prices as of January 27, 2025, with no property acquisitions or divestitures assumed[21] Production Projections - Average daily gas equivalent production is projected to be between 1,040 MMcfe/day and 1,065 MMcfe/day for the year ending December 31, 2025, with approximately 89% being gas[22] - Average daily liquids production is expected to range from 18.0 MBbl/day to 20.5 MBbl/day for the same period[22] - Capital expenditures for operated drilling and completion are estimated between $335 million and $355 million, with total base capital expenditures projected between $370 million and $395 million[22] Pricing and Swaps - Average price of natural gas, including settled derivatives, was $2.99/Mcf in Q4 2024, up from $2.91/Mcf in Q4 2023, an increase of 2.8%[7] - Average price of oil and condensate, including settled derivatives, decreased to $69.75/Bbl in 2024 from $70.74/Bbl in 2023, a decline of 1.4%[8] - The weighted average price for natural gas fixed price swaps is set at $3.82/MMBtu for 2025[26] - The company’s oil fixed price swaps volume is 3,000 Bblpd at a weighted average price of $73.29/Bbl for 2025[26] - The company has fixed price collars for natural gas with a weighted average floor price of $3.37/MMBtu and a ceiling price of $4.23/MMBtu for 2025[26] Adjusted Financial Metrics - Adjusted net income for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, is reported at $85.376 million, compared to $84.381 million for the same quarter in 2023[37] - The company incurred a net loss of $273.242 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to a net income of $245.731 million for the same quarter in 2023[37] - Adjusted Net Income (Non-GAAP) for 2024 was $282,494 thousand, a decrease of 18.2% from $345,479 thousand in 2023[40] - Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $731,079 thousand, slightly up from $725,045 thousand in 2023[48] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP) for 2024 was $256,811 thousand, an increase of 29.1% from $198,863 thousand in 2023[57] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP) for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $125,210 thousand, an increase of 46.5% from $85,446 thousand in 2023[52] General and Administrative Expenses - General and administrative expenses (GAAP) for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaled $42,558,000, an increase from $38,600,000 in 2023, representing a growth of 5.1%[64] - Capitalized general and administrative expenses for 2024 were $25,338,000, up from $22,810,000 in 2023, indicating an increase of 11.0%[64] - Recurring general and administrative expenses before capitalization (Non-GAAP) reached $65,372,000 in 2024, compared to $58,566,000 in 2023, reflecting a rise of 11.6%[64] - Non-recurring general and administrative expenses for 2024 were $(2,524,000), slightly improved from $(2,844,000) in 2023[64] - Cash component of general and administrative expenses (GAAP) was $31,600,000 in 2024, compared to $30,385,000 in 2023, showing an increase of 4.0%[64] - Non-cash component of general and administrative expenses (GAAP) for 2024 was $10,958,000, up from $8,215,000 in 2023, a growth of 33.5%[64] - The total cash and non-cash general and administrative expenses for 2024 were $42,558,000, compared to $38,600,000 in 2023, indicating a total increase of 10.0%[64] - The recurring general and administrative expenses before capitalization (Non-GAAP) increased from $46,305,000 in 2023 to $49,016,000 in 2024, a rise of 5.9%[64]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (‘EIA’) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), offering a detailed forecast of oil and natural gas markets through 2026. The report highlights a mixed outlook, with production increases and slower demand growth shaping the energy landscape. Brent crude prices are projected to decline, averaging $74 per barrel in 2025 and dropping further to $66 in 2026. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production is set to rise, reaching a record 13.59 million barrels per d ...

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Gulfport Energy (GPOR) - Gulfport Energy currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a favorable momentum characteristic [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] Performance Metrics - GPOR shares have increased by 4.01% over the past week, outperforming the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, which rose by 2.43% [5] - Over the past month, GPOR's price change is 14.94%, compared to the industry's 10.86% [5] - In the last quarter, GPOR shares have risen by 37.05%, and over the past year, they have gained 51.03%, while the S&P 500 has only increased by 4.32% and 27.01%, respectively [6] Trading Volume - The average 20-day trading volume for GPOR is 287,671 shares, which serves as a baseline for price-to-volume analysis [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, two earnings estimates for GPOR have been revised upwards, with the consensus estimate increasing from $14.38 to $14.43 [9] - For the next fiscal year, four estimates have moved higher, with no downward revisions during the same period [9] Conclusion - Given the positive performance metrics and earnings outlook, GPOR is positioned as a strong buy with a Momentum Score of B, making it a compelling investment option [11]