Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of earnings acceleration in driving stock prices higher, indicating that stocks often experience an increase in earnings before their prices rise [1][3]. Earnings Acceleration Definition - Earnings acceleration refers to the incremental growth in a company's earnings per share (EPS), specifically when the quarter-over-quarter earnings growth rate increases over time [2]. Importance of Earnings Acceleration - Unlike earnings growth, which may already be reflected in stock prices, earnings acceleration can identify stocks that have not yet attracted investor attention, leading to potential price rallies [3]. Earnings Growth Trends - An increasing percentage of earnings growth suggests a fundamentally sound company, while a stable or decreasing percentage may indicate consolidation or a slowdown, potentially dragging prices down [4]. Screening Parameters - The article outlines specific screening parameters to identify stocks with earnings acceleration, including: - Last two quarter-over-quarter EPS growth rates exceeding previous periods [5]. - Projected EPS growth rates for the upcoming quarter expected to exceed prior periods [6][7]. Top Stocks Identified - The screening process narrowed down to four stocks, with three highlighted: - **Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 32.8% for the current year, Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [8]. - **Unity Software Inc. (U)**: Anticipated earnings growth rate of 34.5% for the current year, Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [10]. - **Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 85.3% for the current year, Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [11].

Core Insights - Gulfport Energy (GPOR) is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak in upcoming reports, particularly in the oil and gas exploration and production sector [1] - The company has a history of exceeding earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 18.46% over the last two quarters [1] Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, Gulfport achieved earnings of $4.80 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.90 per share, resulting in a surprise of 23.08% [2] - In the previous quarter, Gulfport's earnings were $3.37 per share against an expected $2.96 per share, delivering a surprise of 13.85% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Gulfport have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5] - The current Earnings ESP for Gulfport is +9.31%, suggesting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [8] Statistical Insights - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7]

Company Overview - Gulfport Energy Corporation, founded in 1997 and based in Oklahoma City, OK, is involved in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company's asset base is primarily focused on natural gas, concentrated in the Utica Shale of Ohio and the SCOOP play in Oklahoma. Gulfport has a combined inventory of over 3,000 gross drilling locations in its two primary plays [12]. Investment Ratings - Gulfport Energy (GPOR) currently holds a 3 (Hold) rating on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B. The company has a Momentum Style Score of A, and its shares have increased by 3.1% over the past four weeks [13][14]. Earnings Estimates - For fiscal 2025, two analysts have revised their earnings estimates upwards in the last 60 days, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing from $21.95 to $25.38 per share. Gulfport Energy boasts an average earnings surprise of 3.7% [13].

Core Insights - Gulfport Energy (NYSE: GPOR) is projected to generate over $650 million in free cash flow for 2025, based on natural gas strip prices around $4.50 [1] Company Overview - Gulfport Energy is positioned to benefit from favorable natural gas pricing, which may enhance its financial performance significantly in the upcoming year [1] Analyst Background - Aaron Chow, known as Elephant Analytics, has over 15 years of analytical experience and has co-founded a mobile gaming company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment [2] - The focus of the investing group Distressed Value Investing is on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, net cash provided by operating activities before changes in working capital totaled approximately $185 million, more than triple the capital expenditures for the quarter [23] - Reported adjusted EBITDA was $203 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $125 million for the same period, marking the best quarter of 2024 from an adjusted free cash flow perspective [24] - Cash operating costs for Q4 totaled $1.19 per million cubic feet equivalent, better than analyst expectations and within the full year 2024 guidance range [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company plans to maintain flat total production while growing expected liquids production by 30% year over year in 2025 [9] - In 2024, Gulfport drilled 21 gross wells, primarily focused in the Utica, and completed 19 gross wells, including three SCOOP wells and twelve Utica dry gas wells [16] - The 2025 development program is expected to deliver a reduction of annual operated drilling and completion capital on a per foot basis by approximately 20% compared to 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The all-in realized price for Q4 was $3.36 per Mcfe, a $0.57 premium to NYMEX Henry Hub index prices [28] - The company has downside protection covering roughly 50% of 2025 natural gas production at an average floor price of $3.62 per MMBtu [29] - The liquidity as of December 31, 2024, totaled $900 million, providing significant flexibility for future development needs [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The 2025 development program focuses on sustaining exposure to a constructive natural gas environment and enhancing hydrocarbon diversification by targeting lean condensate Utica and low-cost Marcellus condensate windows [9] - The company aims to return substantially all 2025 adjusted free cash flow, excluding discretionary acreage acquisitions, through common stock repurchases [10] - Gulfport's strategy includes continuous operational improvements and optimizing asset development to maximize free cash flow generation [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to generate significant free cash flow in 2025, potentially more than double compared to 2024 [31] - The company remains optimistic about the natural gas price outlook for 2025 and 2026, with plans to maintain significant upside through collar structures on hedges [29] - Management highlighted the strong operational performance and the potential for further capital and production efficiency improvements in future years [36] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 7% of its common shares outstanding in 2024, returning 96% of available adjusted free cash flow to shareholders [15] - The proved reserve base increased by approximately 6% when excluding the impact of pricing revisions, reflecting high-quality inventory additions and operational efficiencies [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Liquids volume sustainability and bolt-on opportunities - Management confirmed that the 30% liquids growth is sustainable and highlighted the flexibility to allocate resources between gas and liquids [41][43] - The preference for bolt-on opportunities leans towards sizable undeveloped assets rather than PDP-heavy assets [45][46] Question: Capital efficiency and future capital allocation - Management indicated that front-loaded capital programs are conducive to driving capital efficiencies and will likely continue in the future [54] - The company continuously assesses capital allocation options, focusing on share repurchases and inventory additions [58][60] Question: Development strategy and inventory allocation - Management explained the rationale behind the Marcellus development pace and emphasized a long-term commitment to the area [72][74] - The company plans to develop its Marcellus asset over the next several years, utilizing the identified locations [74] Question: Production cadence and capital efficiency - Management noted that production is expected to increase throughout the year, with a focus on optimizing the timing of well turn-ins [82][84] - There is ongoing potential for further efficiency improvements, although gains may be more moderate compared to previous years [87] Question: NGL realizations and market conditions - Management attributed improved NGL realizations to favorable contract terms and strong market conditions for propane and butane [98]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, net cash provided by operating activities before changes in working capital totaled approximately $185 million, more than triple the capital expenditures for the quarter [23] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at $203 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $125 million, marking the best quarter of 2024 from a free cash flow perspective [24] - Cash operating costs for Q4 totaled $1.19 per million cubic feet equivalent, better than analyst expectations and within the full year 2024 guidance range [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company drilled 21 gross wells in 2024, primarily focused in the Utica, and completed 19 gross wells, including three SCOOP wells and twelve Utica dry gas wells [16] - The 2025 development program is expected to maintain flat total production while growing liquids production by 30% year over year [9][13] - The company anticipates total equivalent production to be relatively flat compared to full year 2024, with an increasing production profile as the year progresses [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The all-in realized price for Q4 was $3.36 per Mcfe, a $0.57 premium to NYMEX Henry Hub index prices, driven by a differentiated hedge position and diverse marketing portfolio [28] - The company has downside protection covering roughly 50% of 2025 natural gas production at an average floor price of $3.62 per MMBtu [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The 2025 development program reflects significant efficiency gains and capital allocation optimizations, allowing for a focus on liquids-rich production while maintaining a low decline production base [9][12] - The company plans to return substantially all 2025 adjusted free cash flow, excluding discretionary acreage acquisitions, through common stock repurchases [10][32] - The company is focused on operational improvements and optimizing asset development to maximize free cash flow generation and value for investors [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to generate significant free cash flow in 2025, potentially more than double compared to 2024, driven by rising natural gas prices and operational efficiencies [31] - The company remains constructive on gas prices in 2025 and 2026, with a strategic hedge position allowing for participation in prices above $4.00 per MMBtu [29] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 7% of its common shares outstanding in 2024, returning 96% of available adjusted free cash flow to shareholders [15] - The proved reserve base increased by approximately 6% when excluding the impact of pricing revisions, reflecting high-quality inventory additions and operational improvements [33][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Liquids volume sustainability and bolt-on opportunities - Management confirmed that the 30% liquids growth is sustainable and that they have flexibility to allocate towards liquids or gas depending on market conditions [41][43] - The company prefers sizable undeveloped assets for bolt-on opportunities rather than PDP-heavy assets [45][46] Question: Capital efficiency and future capital allocation - Management indicated that front-loaded capital programs are conducive to driving capital efficiencies and that this approach is expected to continue [54] - The company continuously assesses free cash flow allocation options, balancing share repurchases and inventory additions [58][60] Question: Development strategy and inventory allocation - Management clarified that the Marcellus development will be paced responsibly, with a focus on corporate inventory life rather than specific area allocations [72][74] Question: Production cadence and capital efficiency - Management noted that production is expected to increase throughout the year, with a focus on optimizing the timing of well turn-ins [82][84] - Continuous improvement in operational efficiency is anticipated, although future gains may be more moderate compared to past improvements [86] Question: NGL realizations and market conditions - Management highlighted strong NGL realizations due to favorable contracts and market conditions, particularly in Appalachia [97][98]

Financial Performance - Net cash provided by operating activities was $650.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $723.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to a decrease in natural gas revenues[305]. - The company reported a net change in cash and cash equivalents of $(456,000) for the year ended December 31, 2024[305]. - The company incurred $454.1 million in additions to oil and natural gas properties for the year ended December 31, 2024[305]. - The company recognized ceiling test impairments of $373.2 million in 2024, with no impairments recorded for the year ended December 31, 2023[317]. - The company paid $4.2 million in cash dividends to preferred stockholders in 2024, a decrease from $4.8 million in 2023[310]. Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaled $430.1 million, with $327.4 million allocated to drilling and completion activities[301]. - Cash capital expenditures for oil and natural gas properties in 2024 totaled $454.1 million, a decrease of 15.5% from $537.4 million in 2023[307]. - Total oil and natural gas property expenditures in 2024 were $454.1 million, which included drilling and completion costs of $325.1 million[307]. - The company expects its drilling and completion capital expenditures for 2025 to be in the range of $335 million to $355 million, aiming for production of approximately 1,040 to 1,065 MMcfe per day[302]. Debt and Obligations - Total contractual cash obligations as of December 31, 2024, amounted to $2,102.6 million, including long-term debt principal of $713.7 million and interest of $220.9 million[297]. - The company’s debt activity resulted in a net increase of $32.8 million during the year ended December 31, 2024[305]. - The company had $956.0 million in borrowings and $1.0 billion in repayments on its Credit Facility during 2024, with a loss on debt extinguishment of $13.4 million[307]. - The company incurred debt issuance and loan commitment fees of $14.9 million in 2024, up from $7.1 million in 2023, primarily due to the issuance of the 2029 Senior Notes[308]. - The company had $10.0 million in borrowings outstanding on its Credit Facility as of February 20, 2025[307]. Shareholder Activities - The company repurchased 1.2 million shares for approximately $184.5 million at a weighted average price of $153.35 per share in 2024, compared to 1.5 million shares for $148.9 million at a weighted average price of $101.53 per share in 2023[309]. - The company exchanged $23.6 million in shares for tax withholdings in 2024, significantly up from $3.2 million in 2023[311]. Market Conditions - During 2024, WTI prices ranged from $66.73 to $87.69 per barrel, while the Henry Hub spot market price of natural gas ranged from $1.21 to $13.20 per MMBtu[303]. Operational Activities - In the year ended December 31, 2024, the company spud 20 gross (19.7 net) operated wells in the Utica formation at a total cost of approximately $259.8 million[306]. - The company entered into natural gas, oil, and NGL derivative contracts for 2025, including swaps for 18,301 MMBtu/d at a weighted average price of $3.85[295]. - The company has $63.8 million in letters of credit and $44.9 million in surety bonds as part of its off-balance sheet arrangements[300].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, net cash provided by operating activities before changes in working capital totaled approximately $185 million, more than triple the capital expenditures for the quarter [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $203 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $125 million, driven by robust natural gas pricing and strong liquids production [16][18] - The company repurchased approximately 491,000 shares of common stock for about $80 million during Q4 2024, representing a significant return of capital to shareholders [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 2025 development program is expected to maintain flat total production while growing liquids production by 30% year over year [6][9] - In 2024, the company drilled 21 gross wells, primarily in the Utica, and completed 19 gross wells, including three SCOOP wells and 12 Utica dry gas wells [10] - The company anticipates that approximately 50% of total production will be liquids-rich in 2025, with liquids production expected to increase to between 18,000 and 20,500 barrels per day [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The all-in realized price for Q4 2024 was $3.36 per Mcfe, a 0.57 premium to NYMEX Henry Hub index prices [18] - The company has downside protection covering roughly 50% of 2025 natural gas production at an average floor price of $3.62 per MMBtu [19] - The liquidity as of December 31, 2024, totaled $900 million, providing sufficient funds for future development needs [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing hydrocarbon diversification by targeting lean condensate in the Utica and low-cost Marcellus condensate windows [7] - The 2025 capital expenditure is projected to be flat, in the range of $370 million to $395 million, with a focus on operational efficiencies and cost reductions [8] - The company plans to return substantially all 2025 adjusted free cash flow to shareholders through common stock repurchases, excluding discretionary acreage acquisitions [7][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the natural gas pricing environment in 2025 and 2026, indicating a belief in improving macro conditions [20] - The company expects 2025 to be a transformative year for cash flow generation, with adjusted free cash flow potentially more than doubling compared to 2024 [21][24] - Management highlighted the importance of continuous operational improvements and optimizing asset development to maximize free cash flow generation [15][24] Other Important Information - The company achieved a 20% reduction in annual operated drilling and completion capital on a per foot basis compared to 2024, driven by operational efficiencies and service cost improvements [8] - The proved reserve base increased by approximately 6% when excluding the impact of pricing revisions, reflecting successful leasing efforts and operational efficiencies [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the sustainability of the liquids growth and its impact on potential acquisitions? - Management confirmed that the 30% liquids growth is sustainable and highlighted the flexibility to allocate resources between gas and liquids as needed [27][28][30] Question: How does the front-loaded CapEx program affect capital efficiencies? - Management indicated that a front-loaded capital program is conducive to driving capital efficiencies and maximizing cash flows throughout the year [36][37] Question: What is the outlook for future capital allocation given the potential for significant free cash flow? - Management stated that the framework for capital allocation has been effective, focusing on share repurchases and inventory additions while continuously assessing opportunities [38][40] Question: How does the Lake Seven pad inform future Utica development? - Management noted that the results from the Lake Seven pad will influence future development strategies, allowing for adjustments in production rates based on observed performance [44][45] Question: Can you clarify the cadence of capital allocation across different operational areas? - Management explained that capital allocation varies by area and emphasized the importance of developing assets responsibly while maintaining a corporate inventory perspective [48][50]

Core Insights - Gulfport Energy reported a revenue of $239.87 million for Q4 2024, marking a 51% year-over-year decline and a surprise of -26.09% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $324.54 million [1] - The company achieved an EPS of $4.80, which is an increase from $3.10 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of +23.08% against the consensus estimate of $3.90 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gulfport's shares have returned +3.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.8% change, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [3] - Average price for NGL was $30.98 per barrel, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $27.48 per barrel [4] - Daily production volume for gas equivalent was 1,055,472 Mcfe/D, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of 1,067,496 Mcfe/D [4] - Daily production volume for natural gas was 958,075 Mcf/D, compared to the two-analyst average estimate of 974,991.8 Mcf/D [4] - Average price for natural gas was $2.99 per thousand cubic feet, above the two-analyst average estimate of $2.91 [4] - Daily production volume for NGL was 11,004 BBL/D, surpassing the two-analyst average estimate of 10,777.44 BBL/D [4] - Average price for oil and condensate was $65.75 per barrel, slightly higher than the two-analyst average estimate of $65.12 per barrel [4] - Daily production volume for oil and condensate was 5,229 BBL/D, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of 4,839.98 BBL/D [4] - Revenues from natural gas sales were $221.55 million, lower than the $244.09 million estimated by two analysts, but represented a +4.2% change year-over-year [4] - Revenues from oil and condensate sales were $31.29 million, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $26.80 million, with a year-over-year change of +32.4% [4] - Revenues from natural gas liquid sales were $31.99 million, above the two-analyst average estimate of $28.16 million, reflecting a +19.4% change year-over-year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gulfport Energy reported quarterly earnings of $4.80 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.90 per share, and showing an increase from $3.10 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 23.08% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $239.87 million for the quarter ended December 2024, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 26.09%, and is a decline from year-ago revenues of $489.11 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Gulfport has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times but has not beaten consensus revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - Gulfport shares have decreased by about 1% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.7% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] Earnings Estimate Revisions - The trend for estimate revisions ahead of the earnings release was favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $4.80 on revenues of $324.06 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $22.29 on revenues of $1.38 billion [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently in the top 22% of Zacks industries, suggesting that stocks in the top 50% outperform those in the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8] - Another company in the same industry, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc., is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -30%, with a recent 19.4% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate [9]