Guardian Pharmacy Services (NYSE:GRDN) FY Conference Summary Company Overview - Guardian Pharmacy Services is a leading long-term care pharmacy provider with over 50 pharmacy operations nationally, primarily focused on assisted living and memory care markets [3][4] - The company holds approximately 13% market share in the assisted living end market and aims to expand to 20-30% over time [3][4] Core Business Model - The business model is centered around providing specialized pharmacy services tailored to the needs of frail and elderly residents in assisted living facilities [6][10] - Guardian's operations leverage scale through purchasing, reimbursement, analytics tools, and strong sales relationships with national accounts [6][10] Market Focus - The assisted living market was chosen due to its significant growth over the past 20 years, with a total addressable market (TAM) of approximately one million residents [10] - The average resident is now older (85+) and takes an average of 14 prescriptions, indicating a shift in the acuity level of residents [10][32] Competitive Landscape - Guardian competes with independent operators who lack the scale and resources to provide the same level of service and analytics [12][58] - The company believes there is ample room for multiple competitors in the assisted living market, despite the presence of larger peers [56][58] Growth Strategy - Organic growth is driven by increasing market share in existing markets and expanding into contiguous markets [15][16] - The company tracks market share using NICMAP data and aims for 50% or more in mature markets [15] - Recent acquisitions in the Pacific Northwest were driven by demand from larger national and regional accounts [22][24] Resident Adoption and Service Efficiency - The current resident adoption rate of Guardian's services is around 89%, with efforts to increase this in new facilities [28] - The company utilizes a tech-enabled platform to ensure safe medication administration, significantly reducing errors [67][70] Financial Outlook - The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is expected to impact revenue but not EBITDA, with the company confident in offsetting headwinds through operational efficiencies [38][49] - The company has increased guidance based on favorable organic growth trends and successful flu vaccine clinics [50][52] Adjacent Market Opportunities - Guardian is exploring opportunities in adjacent markets such as PACE and hospice, with ongoing efforts to improve service delivery in these areas [54][55] Conclusion - Guardian Pharmacy Services is well-positioned in the long-term care pharmacy market, with a clear strategy for growth through market share expansion, operational efficiencies, and a focus on specialized services for assisted living facilities [4][10][54]

Partial view of nurse giving pills and glass of water to elderly woman. Key Points Guardian posted a standout Q3, with revenue up 20% year over year and EPS topping estimates. The company raised full-year guidance, reflecting growing demand and operational strength. Strong institutional inflows, high insider ownership, and a breakout above resistance suggest improving sentiment and potential upside. Interested in Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better. Guardian Pharma ...

Core Insights - Guardian Pharmacy Services reported a strong quarterly earnings performance, leading to a significant increase in its stock price, outperforming the S&P 500 index [1][5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a 20% year-over-year revenue increase, totaling over $377 million, driven by a 13% rise in total residents served, reaching 204,000 [2] - Guardian's net income, not according to GAAP, was $15.7 million, a notable improvement from the previous year's breakeven result [3] - The average analyst estimate for Guardian's third-quarter revenue was $354 million, indicating a solid performance above expectations [4] Management Outlook - CEO Fred Burke expressed confidence in the company's business model, highlighting the combination of local expertise with national resources [5] - The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $1.43 billion to $1.45 billion, up from the previous range of $1.39 billion to $1.41 billion [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also increased to $104 million to $106 million, compared to the prior range of $100 million to $102 million [7]

Core Insights - Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN) reported quarterly earnings of $0.25 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.24 per share, and a significant improvement from a loss of $2 per share a year ago [1] - The company achieved revenues of $377.43 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.63% and showing growth from $314.39 million in the same quarter last year [3] - Guardian Pharmacy's stock has increased by approximately 42.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 14.4% [4] Earnings Performance - The earnings surprise for the recent quarter was +4.17%, following a previous surprise of +4.55% when earnings were $0.23 per share against an expectation of $0.22 [2] - Over the last four quarters, Guardian Pharmacy has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times [2] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.25, with expected revenues of $372.06 million, and for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $0.95 on $1.4 billion in revenues [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Guardian Pharmacy was mixed prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market [7] Industry Context - Guardian Pharmacy operates within the Zacks Medical - Drugs industry, which is currently ranked in the top 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable industry outlook [9] - The performance of Guardian Pharmacy's stock may be influenced by the overall industry outlook and trends in earnings estimate revisions [6][9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue grew 20% to $377.4 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising 19% to $27.3 million, yielding adjusted EPS of $0.25 [5][14][15] - Total resident count increased by 13% to 203,766, driven by both organic growth and acquisitions [5][14] - Adjusted EBITDA margins held steady at 7.2%, reflecting the dilutive impact from recent acquisitions and greenfield startups [5][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The pharmacy segment experienced strong performance, with significant contributions from new acquisitions in Washington and Oregon [14][15] - Gross profit increased to $74.7 million, with a margin of 19.8% [15] - The company noted that its four- to five-year locations are performing at or above the consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin, while newer locations are progressing steadily [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Guardian holds a national market share of 13% in serving assisted living facilities, with 37 pharmacies having over 20% market share and 12 pharmacies exceeding 40% [8][9] - The company serves nearly 204,000 residents, primarily in-house, and expects to benefit from demographic trends as the aging population grows [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive organic growth through new customer facility wins, higher resident adoption, and greenfield expansions, while also pursuing targeted acquisitions [10][11] - Guardian is focused on enhancing profitability by integrating new pharmacies and leveraging technology and operational efficiencies [10][11] - The company is navigating policy changes proactively and advocating for legislative solutions to address industry challenges [6][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in offsetting anticipated EBITDA headwinds despite expected flat revenue growth in 2026 [6][10] - The company highlighted the importance of local leadership and scale in executing its growth strategy [7][10] - Management noted that the acquisition pipeline remains active, with a disciplined approach to selecting operators and markets [18] Other Important Information - The company filed an S-3 shelf registration for up to 6 million shares to provide financial flexibility [12] - Cash position improved to $36 million, with strong cash generation and no debt outstanding [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comparison of vaccine program contribution this year to last year - Management noted steady performance in the vaccine program, with a stronger start in September compared to last year [22][23] Question: Resident count and acquisition impact - Management confirmed that recent acquisitions are included in the Q3 resident count, with expectations for steady growth in Q4 [24][25] Question: Status of negotiations with PBMs regarding IRA issues - Management indicated that discussions are ongoing and they are growing more confident in offsetting headwinds [26][27] Question: Margin impact from acquisitions - Management highlighted that recent acquisitions are dilutive to margins but are expected to improve over time as they mature [33][41] Question: Changes in Medicare Part D plans and resident switching - Management stated it is early in the process to assess the impact of changes in Part D plans, with ongoing efforts to optimize plans for residents [46][48] Question: Changes in drug consumption patterns - Management observed a steady growth in acuity among residents, leading to increased utilization of certain brand medications [50]

Financial Performance - Revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2025, increased to $377,427,000, up from $314,393,000 in the same period of 2024, representing a growth of 20.1%[16] - Gross profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $207,216,000, compared to $177,267,000 for the same period in 2024, reflecting an increase of 16.9%[16] - Operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $16,354,000, a significant recovery from an operating loss of $104,613,000 in the same period of 2024[16] - Net income attributable to Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $9,818,000, compared to a net loss of $121,990,000 in the same period of 2024[16] - Basic net income per share of $0.16 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a loss of $2.00 per share in the same period of 2024[16] - Basic net income attributable to Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $28,296, compared to a net loss of $121,990 for the same period in 2024[67] - Basic net income per share for Class A and Class B common stock was $0.46 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[67] - The company’s segment net income (loss) for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $(82.9) million, which improved to $27.7 million for the same period in 2025[78] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to $320,810,000 as of December 31, 2024, from $390,037,000 as of September 30, 2025, indicating a decline of 17.7%[14] - Total liabilities decreased to $170,834,000 as of December 31, 2024, from $194,540,000 as of September 30, 2025, a reduction of 12.2%[14] - Total equity of the company as of September 30, 2025, was $195,497,000, down from $149,976,000 as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a decrease of 20.5%[14] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash and cash equivalents decreased significantly to $4,660,000 as of December 31, 2024, from $36,487,000 as of September 30, 2025, a decline of 87.3%[14] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $35,623,000, while for 2025 it was $65,655,000[22] - The company used $27,515 in investing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, an increase of $3.7 million from $23,783 in 2024[143] - Cash flows used in financing activities were $6.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to payments for finance lease obligations and equity offering costs[146] Acquisitions and Growth Strategy - The company’s growth strategy involves acquiring institutional pharmacies servicing long-term care facilities and other care settings[41] - The total consideration for the 2025 Acquisitions was $16.271 million, including $13.230 million in cash and contingent earnout payments of up to $2.600 million[43] - The company completed various acquisitions during 2024 and 2025, which contributed to the growth in revenue and operational results[96] - Revenue included in the consolidated statements for the 2025 Acquisitions was $16,167 for the three months and $20,772 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[49] Shareholder Activities - The Company completed its IPO on September 27, 2024, issuing 9,200,000 shares at $14.00 per share, resulting in net proceeds of $119.784 million after underwriting discounts and offering costs[29] - The company issued and sold 8,000,000 shares of Class A common stock at a public offering price of $14.00 per share during its IPO, receiving net proceeds of $119.8 million[164] - The company used $55.2 million of the IPO proceeds for merger consideration and $20.0 million to repay borrowings on its line of credit[164] - On September 27, 2025, 13,523,285 shares of Class B common stock automatically converted into an equal number of shares of Class A common stock[161] Operational Metrics - The company served approximately 204,000 residents in about 8,200 long-term care facilities (LTCFs) across 38 states as of September 30, 2025[84] - Prescriptions dispensed rose from 6.4 million in the three months ended September 30, 2024, to 7.3 million in the same period in 2025, reflecting increased operational capacity[112] - The number of residents served increased from 180,000 in September 2024 to 204,000 in September 2025, contributing to revenue growth[112] Tax and Legal Matters - The effective tax rate for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was 42.3%, compared to -0.1% for the same period in 2024[80] - The company is not currently aware of any legal proceedings that would materially affect its business or financial condition[159] - There have been no material changes to the risk factors affecting the company as described in its Annual Report on Form 10-K[160] Accounting and Financial Reporting - The company adopted new accounting standards effective January 1, 2024, including ASU 2023-07 for segment reporting disclosures[38] - Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $75,659, representing an increase from $64,944 in the same period of 2024[132] - The company emphasizes that Adjusted EBITDA and related measures should not be viewed in isolation from GAAP financial measures, as they have limitations[129] - A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net income and other financial measures is provided to clarify the relationship between these metrics and GAAP results[131] Internal Controls and Procedures - The company conducted an evaluation of its disclosure controls and procedures, concluding they were effective as of September 30, 2025[155] - There were no changes in internal control over financial reporting that materially affected the company during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025[157]

Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $377.4 million, representing a 20% increase year-over-year[7] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $27.3 million, compared to $23.0 million in the prior year period[7] - Net income for the quarter was $9.6 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $105.8 million in the prior-year period[7] - Revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $377,427,000, a decrease of 16.5% compared to $314,393,000 in the same period of 2024[26] - Operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $16,354,000, a significant recovery from an operating loss of $104,613,000 in the same period of 2024[26] - Net income attributable to Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $28,296,000, compared to a net loss of $121,990,000 in 2024[26] - Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $75,659,000, up from $64,944,000 in 2024, indicating a growth of 16.5%[31] - The company reported a net income margin of 2.6% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a net loss margin of 9.3% in 2024[31] - Cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $65,655,000, an increase from $35,623,000 in 2024[28] - The company reported a diluted EPS of $0.45 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a diluted loss per share of $2.00 in 2024[31] Guidance and Projections - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $1.43 billion and $1.45 billion, up from the previous range of $1.39 billion to $1.41 billion[5] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year was increased to between $104.0 million and $106.0 million, up from $100.0 million to $102.0 million[5] Cash and Debt Position - Cash and cash equivalents totaled $36.5 million at quarter-end, with no long-term debt outstanding[7] - Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $36,487,000 for September 30, 2025, compared to $37,221,000 at the end of the previous year[28] Operational Developments - The acquisition of Managed Healthcare Pharmacy was announced, marking Guardian's first physical footprint in Oregon[8] - Guardian operates over 53 pharmacies nationwide, serving approximately 8,200 long-term care facilities across 38 states[10] - The company has filed a shelf registration statement for the potential issuance and resale of up to 5,000,000 shares of Class A common stock[9] Share-Based Compensation and Legal Matters - The company incurred share-based compensation expenses of $12,770,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, down from $128,029,000 in 2024[28] - Proceeds from payor reimbursement matters recorded as revenue were $1.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $0.0 million and $1.7 million for the same period in 2024[4] - Legal expenses related to payor reimbursement matters were $1.7 million and $2.8 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, respectively, while there were no expenses in the same periods of 2024[4] Adjusted Metrics - Adjusted net income and Adjusted EPS are not calculated for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024, due to the limited net income attributable to Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. following the IPO[4]

Core Viewpoint - Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues, with the consensus outlook being crucial for assessing the company's earnings picture [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show quarterly earnings of $0.24 per share, reflecting a +112% change year-over-year, and revenues are projected to be $353.95 million, up 12.6% from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is scheduled for November 10, and stock movement may depend on whether the actual results exceed or fall short of these expectations [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.04% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][12]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Guardian Pharmacy is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.82%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Guardian Pharmacy was expected to post earnings of $0.22 per share but delivered $0.23, resulting in a surprise of +4.55% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [14]. Industry Comparison - Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR), another player in the Zacks Medical - Drugs industry, is expected to report a loss of $2.85 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of -5.6%, with revenues expected to decline by 56.1% [18][19]. - Nektar's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.6% higher recently, and it has a positive Earnings ESP of +18.72%, combined with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a likely earnings beat [19][20].

Core Points - Guardian Pharmacy Services has filed a shelf registration statement with the SEC for the potential issuance of up to 1,020,000 shares of Class A common stock and the resale of up to 4,980,000 outstanding shares by selling stockholders [1][2] - The filing aims to provide flexibility for future access to public markets, although there are no immediate plans to offer securities [2] - Guardian has entered into lock-up agreements with holders of approximately 93% of its outstanding shares, restricting them from selling or transferring shares until June 30, 2026 [3] Company Overview - Guardian Pharmacy Services is a leading long-term care pharmacy services company, partnering with over 7,400 long-term care facilities across 38 states to deliver medications and technology-enabled services [5] - As of June 30, 2025, Guardian operates more than 52 pharmacies and serves over 195,000 residents [5]

Company Overview - Guardian Pharmacy Services is an institutional pharmacy focused on serving the assisted living segment of long-term care, which is experiencing significant growth [2][4] - The company has engineered its pharmacy services specifically for assisted living facilities, addressing the unique needs of this demographic [3][4] Market Position - Guardian Pharmacy Services is the market leader in its sector, holding a 13% market share despite not covering the entire geography of the United States [4]