Author's note: I present and update my best small-cap Busted IPO stock ideas only to subscribers of my exclusive marketplace, The Busted IPO Forum. Try a free 2-week trial today by clicking HERE .Shares of oil and gas exploration and production concern Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (NYSE: GRNT ) have rallied nearly 20% off their all-time low set in April 2025. The company’s approach is simply to ‘cover the board’ in the U.S., investingThe Busted IPO Forum is an investing group led by Bret Jensen, Chief Inve ...

Company Overview - Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT) shares increased by 6.7% to close at $6.41, supported by higher trading volume compared to normal sessions [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has led to a 13% increase in Brent crude and a 10% increase in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) [2] Financial Performance - Granite Ridge is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.17 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 30.8%, with revenues projected at $111 million, up 22.5% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for Granite Ridge has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in earnings expectations [4] Market Position - The company operates as a non-operated oil and natural gas exploration and production entity with a diverse portfolio across major U.S. basins, which enhances its operational flexibility and attractiveness in a volatile market [2] - Granite Ridge holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook in the current market context [5]

We are currently offering a free two-week trial to Distressed Value Investing . Join our community to receive exclusive research about various companies and other opportunities along with full access to my portfolio of historic research that now includes over 1,000 reports on over 100 companies.Aaron Chow, aka Elephant Analytics has 15+ years of analytical experience and is a top rated analyst on TipRanks. Aaron previously co-founded a mobile gaming company (Absolute Games) that was acquired by PENN Enterta ...

Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) Conference June 11, 2025 12:15 PM ET Speaker0 Good morning, everyone. I'm Steve Ferrizani, an analyst at Sidoti. I see the room is still filling in, so I'll give it a few seconds before I start the presentation and turn it over to our next presenter. But just to remind everyone before we get started, we should have a few minutes for q and a afterward. I think it'll be a very informative presentation. If you have any questions, you just press that q and a button at the bottom o ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Granite Ridge achieved a production rate of over 29,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, reflecting a 23% increase compared to the same period last year [6] - The company generated $91,000,000 of adjusted EBITDAX, surpassing internal projections [7] - Total revenue for the quarter was $122,900,000, up nearly $34,000,000 from the same period last year, with realized prices of $69.18 per barrel and $3.97 per Mcf [20] - Adjusted net income was $28,900,000, or $0.22 per share, an 89% increase year over year [20] - Operating cash flow before working capital changes was $86,700,000 [20] - The company reported a reduction in LOE to $6.17 per BOE, which is 13% lower than last year [9][21] - Operating margin improved from 83% in the first quarter of last year to 87% this year [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil volumes increased by 39% and natural gas volumes by 10% [9] - The operated partnership program saw gross daily operated oil production increase by 400% from 2,500 barrels of oil per day to approximately 10,000 barrels of oil per day [8] - The company turned 13.7 net wells to sales during the quarter [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Natural gas volumes grew by 10%, with revenue from gas more than doubling to $31,000,000, thanks to realized prices of $3.97 per M compared to $1.84 per M a year ago [11] - The company’s production is approximately 75% hedged through 2026 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operated partnerships, which will account for about 60% of capital spending this year, up from 50% in 2024 [19] - The 2025 budget is projected at $310,000,000, aiming for a 16% production growth at the midpoint [12] - The company emphasizes capital allocation discipline, with a focus on full cycle returns and conservative leverage [14][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company’s ability to withstand fluctuations in hydrocarbon prices, maintaining a low leverage profile of 0.7 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA [10][20] - The macro environment for natural gas has improved, and the company is evaluating opportunities to accelerate capital deployment in response to improved gas pricing [11] - Management remains cautious about market volatility and is prepared to adjust capital expenditures accordingly [15][19] Other Important Information - The company has a solid balance sheet with $250,000,000 of debt outstanding and total liquidity of $141,000,000 as of March 31 [22][20] - The company’s hedging program includes 2,400,000 barrels of oil hedged with floors at $61.86 and ceilings at $77.89, and 7.3 Bcf of gas hedged with floors of $3.43 and ceilings of $4.23 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Contribution from Q1 acquisitions - The acquisition closed earlier this year is expected to contribute about 450 barrels for the year, primarily from Delaware production [29][30] Question: Impact of acquisitions on Q1 volumes - The acquisition had a minimal impact on Q1 volumes as it closed late in the quarter [31] Question: LOE guidance for the year - The expectation is to steer towards the low end of the LOE guidance range for the year [32][33] Question: Performance of non-op wells - The outperformance was attributed to wells coming online sooner than expected and existing wells performing better than anticipated, particularly in the Delaware Basin [38][41] Question: Evaluating attractiveness of basins - The company is focused on capital allocation, with opportunities in gas-weighted basins like Haynesville and dry gas Eagle Ford being evaluated [45][46] Question: Oil cut trends for the year - Oil production was in line with expectations, but gas production was higher, leading to a lower oil cut [55][57] Question: Capital allocation between non-op and partnerships - Operated partnership capital will be roughly 60% of total CapEx for the year, with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [59][62] Question: Performance of partnership wells and rig plans - Operated partnerships are expected to contribute roughly a quarter of total production this year, with plans to maintain one rig for the remainder of the year [70][74] Question: Development plans in the Midland Basin - Development in the Northern Midland Basin is planned for summer, but the project is easy to defer if market conditions require [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Granite Ridge achieved a production rate of over 29,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, reflecting a 23% increase compared to the same period last year [6][7] - The company generated $91,000,000 of adjusted EBITDAX, surpassing internal projections [7] - Total revenue for the quarter was $122,900,000, up nearly $34,000,000 from the same period last year, with realized prices of $69.18 per barrel and $3.97 per Mcf [21] - Adjusted net income was $28,900,000, or $0.22 per share, an 89% increase year over year [21] - Operating cash flow before working capital changes was $86,700,000 [21] - The company reported a reduction in LOE to $6.17 per BOE, which is 13% lower than last year [8][22] - Operating margin improved from 83% in the first quarter of last year to 87% this year [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil volumes increased by 39% and natural gas volumes by 10% [8] - The operated partnership program saw gross daily operated oil production increase by 400% from 2,500 barrels of oil per day to approximately 10,000 barrels of oil per day [7] - The company turned 13.7 net wells to sales during the quarter [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-over-year, gas volumes grew by 10%, and revenue from gas more than doubled to $31,000,000, thanks to realized prices of $3.97 per M compared to $1.84 per M a year ago [11] - The company maintains a production hedge of approximately 75% through 2026 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on geographic and hydrocarbon diversity, currently maintaining a balanced fifty-fifty split between oil and gas [7] - The 2025 budget is projected at $310,000,000, aiming for a 16% production growth at the midpoint [12] - The company emphasizes full cycle returns of greater than 25% on investments [8] - The strategy includes developing operated partnerships, maintaining a balance between growth and returns, and preserving financial flexibility [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to withstand fluctuations in hydrocarbon prices, with a focus on capital stewardship and disciplined allocation [17][18] - The macro environment is improving for natural gas, and the company is evaluating opportunities to accelerate capital deployment in response to improved gas pricing [11] - Management remains cautious about market volatility and is prepared to adjust capital expenditures accordingly [15] Other Important Information - The company has a leverage ratio of just 0.7 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA [10] - The recent borrowing base increase by $50,000,000 to $375,000,000 enhances liquidity [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Contribution from Q1 acquisitions - The acquisition closed earlier this year is expected to contribute about 450 barrels for the year, primarily from Delaware production [31][32] Question: LOE guidance for the year - The expectation is to steer towards the low end of the LOE guidance range for the year [34] Question: Performance of non-op wells - The outperformance is attributed to wells that came online sooner than expected and existing wells that outperformed [38][39] Question: Attractiveness of basins given price dynamics - The company evaluates capital allocation based on the performance of each basin, with a focus on maintaining a diversified portfolio [44][46] Question: Oil cut trends for the year - Oil production is in line with expectations, while gas production was higher than anticipated, leading to a lower oil cut [54][56] Question: Capital allocation between non-op and partnerships - Operated partnership capital will be roughly 60% of total CapEx for the year, allowing for flexibility in response to market conditions [59][61] Question: Performance of partnership wells and rig plans - Operated partnerships are expected to account for roughly a quarter of total production this year, with plans to monitor market conditions closely [70][72]

Core Insights - Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT) reported quarterly earnings of $0.22 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.20 per share, and showing an increase from $0.12 per share a year ago, representing a 10% earnings surprise [1] - The company achieved revenues of $122.93 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.46% and up from $89 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has underperformed, losing approximately 23.1% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's decline of 4.3% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.16 on revenues of $111 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.68 on revenues of $471.6 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently ranked in the bottom 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stocks in this sector [8]

Revenue and Production - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, total revenues increased by 38% to $122.93 million compared to $88.99 million in the same period of 2024[140] - Oil sales for the same period rose by 21% to $91.85 million, driven by a 37% increase in production, despite an 11.5% decrease in realized prices[140] - Natural gas revenues surged by 135% to $31.08 million, attributed to a 116% increase in realized prices and a 9% increase in production[140] - Net production of oil increased to 1,328 MBbl in 2025 from 969 MBbl in 2024, while natural gas production rose to 7,826 MMcf from 7,203 MMcf[138] - The number of net producing wells increased from 181.34 on March 31, 2024, to 211.63 on March 31, 2025[141] Prices and Expenses - Average NYMEX oil price for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $71.78 per barrel, a 7% decrease from $77.50 per barrel in 2024[135] - Average NYMEX natural gas price for the same period was $4.14 per Mcf, representing a 93% increase from $2.15 per Mcf in 2024[136] - Lease operating expenses were $16.24 million ($6.17 per Boe) for the three months ended March 31, 2025, a 5% increase from $15.48 million ($7.13 per Boe) in 2024[142] - General and administrative expenses increased by 15% to $7.46 million ($2.84 per Boe) in 2025 from $6.49 million ($2.99 per Boe) in 2024[148] - Depletion and accretion expenses rose by 18% to $48.45 million ($18.41 per Boe) in 2025 from $40.94 million ($18.87 per Boe) in 2024[145] Financial Performance - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the company reported a total loss on commodity derivatives of $14.9 million, compared to a loss of $3.2 million in the same period of 2024[149] - Interest expense increased to $5.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, up from $3.2 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to a higher average outstanding balance on the Credit Agreement[150] - The company recorded a loss of $10.0 million on equity investments for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to a gain of $7.8 million in the same period of 2024[151] - Income tax expense decreased to $2.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, from $4.8 million in the same period of 2024[152] Capital Expenditures and Cash Flow - The company plans to budget approximately $300 million to $320 million in total capital expenditures for 2025, with $71.4 million incurred in the first quarter of 2025[176] - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, net cash provided by operating activities was $76.1 million, an increase from $68.7 million in the same period of 2024[159] - The company used $100.0 million in investing activities for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily for capital expenditures and acquisitions of oil and natural gas properties[163] - The company paid dividends of $14.4 million, or $0.11 per share, during the first quarter of 2025, consistent with the same amount paid in the first quarter of 2024[158] - The company expects to fund its near-term capital requirements with cash on hand, cash flows from operations, and available borrowing capacity under its Credit Agreement[157] Debt and Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, the company had $250.0 million of debt outstanding under its Credit Agreement and $90.8 million of liquidity, consisting of $74.7 million of committed borrowing availability and $16.1 million of cash[154] - Total indebtedness of $250.0 million outstanding under the Credit Agreement at March 31, 2025[190] - A one percent increase in interest rates would result in increased annual interest expense of approximately $2.5 million[190] - No outstanding interest rate derivative contracts at March 31, 2025[191] Accounting and Reporting - No material changes in critical accounting policies and procedures during the three months ended March 31, 2025[185] - No off-balance sheet arrangements that materially affect financial condition or results of operations[187] - A 10% increase in average commodity prices would have decreased the fair value of commodity derivatives by $29.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025[188]

Exhibit 99.1 Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2025 Results and Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend Dallas, Texas, May 8, 2025 – Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. ("Granite Ridge" or the "Company") (NYSE: GRNT) today reported financial and operating results for the first quarter of 2025. First Quarter 2025 Highlights See "Supplemental Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below for descriptions of the above non-GAAP measures as well as a reconciliation of these measures to the associated GAAP (as defined ...

Core Insights - Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT) is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, having a history of surpassing earnings estimates with an average surprise of 14.56% over the last two quarters [1][4]. Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. achieved earnings of $0.17 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.14 per share, resulting in a surprise of 21.43% [2]. - In the previous quarter, the company was expected to report earnings of $0.13 per share but delivered $0.14 per share, yielding a surprise of 7.69% [2]. Earnings Estimates - Recent estimates for Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [4][7]. - The current Earnings ESP for the company stands at +2.50%, suggesting that analysts have recently become more optimistic about its earnings prospects [7]. Zacks Rank and Predictive Power - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high probability of another earnings beat, with historical data indicating that stocks with this combination beat consensus estimates nearly 70% of the time [5][7]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [6].