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Granite Ridge Resources: 2025 Oil Production May Increase By Over 20%
Seeking Alpha· 2024-11-16 03:55
Group 1 - Granite Ridge Resources (NYSE: GRNT) plans to invest nearly $150 million in capital during 2024 for wells expected to turn-to-sales in early 2025 [2] - This investment is projected to result in a significant cash burn of approximately $65 million after dividends in Q4 2024 [2] - The company is focused on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector [2]
Granite Ridge Resources(GRNT) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-11-08 21:01
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported average daily production of 25,200 Boe per day, marking a 9% increase over the second quarter and 5% from the third quarter last year [13] - Net income for the quarter was $9.1 million or $0.07 per share, with adjusted net income at $18.5 million or $0.14 per share [15] - Adjusted EBITDAX for the quarter was $75.4 million, representing a 10% increase from the prior quarter despite a 6% decline in realized pricing on a Boe basis [15][16] - Per unit lease operating cost improved significantly to $5.62 per Boe, a 14% improvement from the previous quarter [16] - The company reaffirmed its annual production guidance range of 23.3 Boe to 25.3 Boe per day [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Controlled Capital program has exceeded production targets by approximately 15% and CapEx has come in about 15% under budget [7] - The company plans to allocate nearly 50% of its CapEx to Controlled Capital in 2024, increasing to approximately 60% in 2025 [8] - The company closed over a dozen transactions this quarter, adding nearly 16 net locations at a total cost of $31 million [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects a quarter-over-quarter gas production decline of up to 10% in the fourth quarter, partially offset by a modest increase in oil production [10] - The oil production percentage increased to 50% in the third quarter, up from 47% in the prior quarter [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reshape its narrative as a publicly traded private equity firm, blending control over development with private equity's agility [22][24] - The focus is on capital allocation strategy, with a significant portion of capital directed towards Controlled Capital development programs [19][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates double-digit production growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with year-over-year production growth expected to be in the mid-teens [12][45] - The company is optimistic about the future, highlighting the potential for significant production and cash flow growth in early 2025 due to investments made in 2024 [20][24] Other Important Information - The company continued its quarterly cash dividend program, paying $0.11 per share in the third quarter, with another dividend declared for December 2024 [21] - The company expects to provide formal 2025 guidance during the Q4 call [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the lower LOE costs and expectations for Q4? - Management indicated that lower LOE costs were primarily due to less workover expense, expecting Q4 costs to come in towards the lower end of the guidance range [26] Question: Can you provide details on the new leasehold in Appalachia? - The company is focused on the Utica condensate window, particularly in Guernsey and Harrison, and is excited about the partnership opportunities in that area [27][28] Question: Can you elaborate on the Controlled CapEx partnerships and inventory? - The company has two partners, with five or six net locations in the Midland Basin and plans to pick up a rig in late 2024 or early 2025 [33][34] Question: How does the production performance compare to underwriting? - The production performance chart does not incorporate timing but shows actual performance against projections, highlighting the strength of the company's underwriting capabilities [38][39] Question: What is the expected decline rate for PDP? - The company indicated that the PDP decline rate has increased to around 40%, influenced by the Controlled Capital program [47] Question: Are there opportunities for Controlled Capital in other basins? - The company is exploring opportunities in the Bakken and Eagle Ford basins, although gas-weighted areas are currently challenging due to economics [52][54]
Granite Ridge Resources(GRNT) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Presentation
2024-11-08 20:40
GRANITE RIDGE INVESTOR PRESENTATION | NOVEMBER 2024 GRNT LISTED NYSE Granite Ridge at a Glance Key Statistics ($MM except per share metrics) | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|-------------| | | | | Ticker / Exchange | GRNT / NYSE | | Share Price (as of 11/6/2024) | $6.35 | | Market Capitalization | $830 | | Enterprise Value 1 | $1,002 | | TTM Adjusted EBITDAX 2 | $290 | | Dividend Yield 3 | 6.9% | | Vital Energy, Inc Shares Held on Balance Sheet | 4 $29 | 3Q '24 Production (25, ...
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT) Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-11-08 00:10
Company Performance - Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.13 per share, but down from $0.21 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 7.69% [1] - The company posted revenues of $94.08 million for the quarter ended September 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.36% and down from $108.4 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times but has not beaten revenue estimates [2] Stock Outlook - The stock has gained approximately 5.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has increased by 24.3% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.12 on revenues of $102.05 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.55 on revenues of $378.05 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Granite Ridge Resources is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently in the bottom 6% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a challenging environment for stocks in this sector [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact investor sentiment and stock performance [5]
Granite Ridge Resources(GRNT) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2024-11-07 22:21
Commodity Prices - For the three months ended September 30, 2024, the average NYMEX oil pricing was $76.43 per barrel, which is 7% lower than the average price of $82.20 per barrel for the same period in 2023[157] - The average realized oil price per barrel after reflecting settled derivatives for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $73.99, compared to $78.52 for the same period in 2023[158] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, the average NYMEX oil pricing was $78.58 per barrel, which is 2% higher than the average price of $77.30 per barrel for the same period in 2023[157] - The average realized natural gas price per Mcf after reflecting settled derivatives for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $1.98, compared to $3.13 for the same period in 2023, representing a significant decline[159] - The average NYMEX natural gas pricing for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $2.11 per Mcf, which is 18% lower than the average price of $2.58 per Mcf for the same period in 2023[159] - The oil price differential to the NYMEX benchmark price during the three months ended September 30, 2024, was a discount of $(2.99) per barrel, compared to a discount of $(3.79) per barrel for the same period in 2023[151] - The natural gas price differential to the average NYMEX price during the three months ended September 30, 2024, was a discount of $(0.87) per Mcf, compared to a discount of $(0.08) per Mcf for the same period in 2023[152] Revenue and Sales - Oil and natural gas sales for the three months ended September 30, 2024 decreased by 13% compared to the same period in 2023, with oil revenues down 3% and natural gas revenues down 58%[163] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, oil revenues increased by 3% driven by a 3% increase in production, while natural gas revenues decreased by 38% due to a 39% decrease in realized prices[164] - Total revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2024 were $94.1 million, down from $108.4 million in the same period of 2023[162] Expenses - Lease operating expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024 were $13.0 million, a decrease of 23% from $16.9 million in the same period of 2023[166] - Production taxes for the three months ended September 30, 2024 were $5.3 million, compared to $7.1 million during the same period in 2023, representing 6% of oil and natural gas sales[168] - Depletion and accretion expense for the three months ended September 30, 2024 was $44.1 million, a decrease of 1% from $44.3 million in the same period of 2023[171] - General and administrative expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024 were $5.6 million, an increase of 6% from $5.2 million in the same period of 2023[175] - Exploration expense for the three months ended September 30, 2024 was $0.3 million, a decrease of 82% from $1.6 million during the same period in 2023[174] Financial Performance - The company’s revenues, cash flows from operations, and future growth depend substantially on the timing and success of drilling and production activities by operating partners[147] - The company expects continued volatility in commodity prices, which have historically been unpredictable[154] - The company reported a total gain on commodity derivatives of $11.8 million, compared to a loss of $8.1 million for the same period in 2023[177] - The company recorded a net cash receipt of $5.7 million from commodity derivatives for the three months ended September 30, 2024, an increase from $4.4 million in the same period of 2023[178] - Interest expense increased to $4.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, up from $1.4 million in the same period of 2023, primarily due to a higher average outstanding balance on the revolving credit facility[179] - The company experienced a loss of $18.3 million from equity investments during the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to a loss of $19.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024[183] - Income tax expense for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $4.3 million, compared to $5.2 million for the same period in 2023[184] Debt and Liquidity - As of September 30, 2024, the company had $195.0 million of debt outstanding under its Credit Agreement and $127.8 million of liquidity available[186] - The company paid dividends of $14.4 million, or $0.11 per share, during the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $14.8 million, or $0.11 per share, in the same period of 2023[188] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, net cash used in investing activities was $233.6 million, down from $286.5 million in the same period of 2023[194] - The company reported a net cash provided by financing activities of $38.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $29.1 million for the same period in 2023[196] - The company entered into the Fourth Amendment to the Credit Agreement on November 1, 2024, increasing the borrowing base from $300 million to $325 million[202] - As of September 30, 2024, the company was in compliance with all financial covenants required by the Credit Agreement[206] Capital Expenditures - The company has budgeted approximately $355 million to $365 million in total planned capital expenditures for 2024, including about $60 million for acquisitions of oil and natural gas properties[208] - For the three months ended September 30, 2024, the company incurred $77.2 million in costs on oil and natural gas properties, compared to $75.7 million for the same period in 2023[208] - The company reported total property acquisition costs of $32.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $19.4 million for the same period in 2023[210] - The company incurred $206.8 million in costs on oil and natural gas properties for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $233.1 million for the same period in 2023[208] Strategic Outlook - The company has a portfolio of wells and top-tier acreage across multiple prolific unconventional basins in the United States, enhancing asset diversity and reducing overhead[143] - The company expects to fund planned capital expenditures with cash generated from operations and, if required, borrowings under its Credit Agreement[208] - The company may seek additional capital for strategic acquisitions or increased drilling activity, depending on market conditions[211] - A 10% increase in average commodity prices would have decreased the fair value of commodity derivatives by $14.6 million at September 30, 2024[219] - The impact of a one percent increase in interest rates on the company's total indebtedness would result in increased annual interest expense of approximately $2.0 million[221]
Granite Ridge Resources(GRNT) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Results
2024-11-07 21:13
Exhibit 99.1 Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. Reports Third-Quarter 2024 Results and Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend Dallas, Texas, November 7, 2024 – Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. ("Granite Ridge" or the "Company") (NYSE: GRNT) today reported financial and operating results for the third quarter 2024. Third Quarter 2024 Highlights • Achieved average production of 25,177 barrels of oil equivalent ("Boe") per day (50% oil). • Reported net income of $9.1 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, and adjusted net inc ...
Granite Ridge Resources(GRNT) - 2024 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-08-09 21:23
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average daily total production for Q2 2024 was 23,100 BOE per day, up 7% compared to the prior year quarter [9] - Adjusted EBITDA was $68.3 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.13 per diluted share for Q2 2024, flat from the prior year due to lower natural gas prices and divested assets [10] - Oil production as a percentage of total production increased to 47% for Q2 2024, with expectations to exit 2024 around 50% [10][11] - Per unit lease operating costs were $6.50 per BOE, and production and ad valorem taxes were 7.6% of sales, both within guidance range [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed acquisitions representing 95 gross or 25.1 net locations for a total entry cost of $48 million, primarily in the Permian Basin [4] - Controlled capital development CapEx is expected to represent over 40% of total development CapEx for 2024 [5] - The company anticipates about four net wells to turn to sales in Q3 2024, with a total expectation of 22 to 24 net wells to be placed online during 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hydrocarbon prices have changed significantly, with gas down about 22% and oil down about 2% compared to initial guidance in March 2024 [6] - The company is shifting capital allocation towards oil-weighted projects due to the current pricing environment [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a controlled capital program, increasing its allocation to high-return operated projects [5][14] - The strategy includes adapting to market conditions by prioritizing economically advantageous projects [6] - The company aims for double-digit production growth year-over-year in 2025, driven by its controlled capital program [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current hydrocarbon price environment allows for flexibility in capital allocation [6] - The company expects oil production to rise over the next two quarters, with a potential 10% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q3 [7] - Management believes the market is undervaluing the company, highlighting the potential for growth and shareholder value [13][14] Other Important Information - The company raised its 2024 acquisition capital guidance to $60 million based on recent successes [12] - A quarterly cash dividend of $0.11 per share was declared, representing a 7.3% annualized yield [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for oil production growth in Q3 - Management expects a 10% sequential increase in oil production in Q3, primarily driven by the first controlled capital pad brought online in June [18][19] Question: Impact of increased development budget on future growth - The increased development budget is expected to set the company up for growth in Q1 2025, with double-digit growth anticipated [20][21] Question: Acquisition of new locations and partnerships - A significant portion of the new locations acquired was through the new Midland Basin partnership, which is expected to drive future growth [24][25] Question: Production from deferred and DUC wells - Management indicated that there are several deferred and DUC wells that could add net production with minimal CapEx if commodity prices increase [28][29] Question: Lower lease operating expenses (LOE) - The lower LOE was driven by reduced gathering costs and less workover expense, primarily due to deferrals in the Haynesville [31] Question: Future production growth visibility with controlled capital - The controlled capital strategy is expected to enhance visibility for future production growth and cash flows, supporting the dividend [36][37]
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-08-08 23:20
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.13 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.14 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.19 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -7.14%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.13 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.12, delivering a surprise of -7.69%. Over the last four quarte ...
Granite Ridge Resources(GRNT) - 2024 Q2 - Quarterly Report
2024-08-08 20:23
Table of Contents Title of each class Trading Symbol Name of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, par value $0.0001 per share GRNT New York Stock Exchange UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q x QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2024 OR o TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from ____ ...
Granite Ridge Resources(GRNT) - 2024 Q2 - Quarterly Results
2024-08-08 20:19
Exhibit 99.1 Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. Reports Second-Quarter 2024 Results, Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend and Provides Updated Outlook for 2024 Dallas, Texas, August 8, 2024 – Granite Ridge Resources Inc. ("Granite Ridge" or the "Company") (NYSE: GRNT) today reported financial and operating results for the second quarter 2024. Second Quarter 2024 Highlights • Increased production by 7% to 23,106 barrels of oil equivalent ("Boe") per day (47% oil) from the second quarter of 2023. • Reported net income ...