Core Insights - Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.76 per share, reflecting a decline of 24.8% year over year, while revenues are forecasted to reach $1.3 billion, indicating a growth of 27.1% compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.7% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Revenues- Cost reimbursements' to be $126.33 million, a change of +30.2% from the year-ago quarter [5] - The estimated 'Revenues- Sales of VOIs, net' is $516.28 million, reflecting a change of +37.3% year over year [5] - 'Revenues- Rental and ancillary services' are expected to reach $176.81 million, indicating a +7.8% change from the previous year [6] - 'Revenues- Financing' is projected at $114.52 million, showing a significant increase of +39.7% from the year-ago quarter [6] - 'Revenues- Sales, marketing, brand and other fees' are estimated to be $142.28 million, reflecting a +7% change from the previous year [7] Market Performance - Shares of Hilton Grand Vacations have shown a return of -0.5% over the past month, aligning with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change, and the company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it will mirror overall market performance in the near future [8]

Core Viewpoint - Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2024, which could significantly influence its stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for HGV's quarterly earnings is $0.76 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 24.8%. Revenues are projected to reach $1.3 billion, representing a 27.1% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.67%, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for HGV is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +6.73%, suggesting a bullish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [10][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, HGV was expected to post earnings of $0.70 per share but actually reported $0.67, resulting in a surprise of -4.29%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [12][13]. Investment Considerations - While HGV appears to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, it is essential for investors to consider other factors that may influence stock performance beyond just earnings results [14][16].

Core Insights - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) is focusing on diversifying its product portfolio and expanding its global market reach through strategic acquisitions and partnerships [1] - The company's shares have gained 6.2% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector but outperforming the Zacks Hotels and Motels industry and the S&P 500 Index [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HGV's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) has decreased to $3.55 from $3.63, indicating a year-over-year growth of 3.4% [3] Growth Driving Factors - HGV is engaging in incremental buyouts and partnerships to diversify its product offerings, including the acquisition of Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation for approximately $1.6 billion, which adds nearly 200 properties in 14 new regions and eight new states [5] - The company has entered into a 10-year exclusive marketing agreement with Bass Pro Shops to market vacation packages, with sales and marketing operations at 132 locations as of September 30, 2024 [6] - HGV is undergoing rebranding initiatives, with 80% of Diamond properties rebranded in 2024 and plans to rebrand the majority of Bluegreen properties by 2026 [8] Shareholder Value and Financial Performance - HGV has a balanced capital allocation strategy, repurchasing 7.4 million shares for $307 million during the first nine months of 2024 [10] - The company's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 16.4%, significantly higher than the industry's 5.4%, indicating efficient use of shareholders' funds [11] Challenges - HGV is facing high operating expenses, with total operating expenses increasing to $3.37 billion from $2.50 billion year over year during the first nine months of 2024 [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported contract sales were $777 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $276 million, with margins of 22%, in line with expectations [12][30] - Total revenue, excluding cost reimbursements, was $1.13 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margins of 25% [30] - Adjusted EBITDA included $18 million of Bluegreen cost synergies recognized during the quarter, on target with a plan for $100 million of cost synergies within 24 months [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Contract sales in the Real Estate segment were $777 million, with Bluegreen contributing $195 million [31] - Tours for the quarter were nearly 228,000, down approximately 2% from last year's pro forma level [31] - VPG for the quarter was $3,392, demonstrating a 9% increase over 2019 levels [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Occupancy in the quarter was up about 2 points to 83%, reflecting gains in some mainland markets [15] - Consolidated arrivals for the fourth quarter are ahead of last year, with strong rental demand [15] - The company ended the quarter with 722,000 members and NOG of 1.2% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing cost synergies from the Bluegreen acquisition and has made organizational changes to improve sales and marketing execution [8][10] - The introduction of HGV Max to Bluegreen members is anticipated to attract new buyers and motivate existing owners to upgrade [10][24] - The company is also progressing with rebranding efforts, aiming to have 80% of Diamond's targeted keys rebranded by year-end [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about operational improvements despite near-term challenges from hurricanes and staffing levels [11][27] - The macro environment presents headwinds for some consumers, but the company is confident in its strategy and execution [11][27] - Management expects a larger impact from hurricanes in the fourth quarter, adjusting guidance to the lower end of the range [44] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 2.8 million shares for $108 million during the quarter, with a commitment to return excess cash to shareholders [43] - The company has a liquidity position of $297 million in unrestricted cash and $308 million available under its revolving credit facility [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the BVH sales integration fully resolved? - Management indicated that the integration is progressing well, with cost savings on track and a new management structure in place [49][51] Question: Is the guidance adjustment solely due to hurricane impacts? - The majority of the adjustment is due to hurricanes, with additional impacts from a hotel workers' strike in Hawaii and delays in launching HGV Max [53] Question: How are local market trends performing? - Local marketing saw a drop-off due to staffing issues, but improvements are expected as staffing levels are being addressed [55][56] Question: How are the largest markets performing? - Las Vegas continues to perform well, while Orlando has seen softening in arrivals and rental rates. Hawaii is recovering but faced challenges from a recent strike [69][71] Question: What is the outlook for new buyers post-election? - Management noted that consumer spending on travel remains strong, with a focus on higher net worth customers to improve VPG [75][76] Question: What is the status of the sales force? - Leadership is in place, and staffing levels are improving, with expectations to be fully staffed by the end of the year [80][84]

Acquisition and Market Presence - The acquisition of Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation was completed on January 17, 2024, enhancing the company's portfolio and market presence[141]. - The company completed the acquisition of Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation for approximately $1.6 billion on January 17, 2024[183]. Property and Membership - As of September 30, 2024, the company operates approximately 200 properties across the U.S., Europe, the Caribbean, Mexico, Canada, and Asia, with a significant concentration in Florida, Europe, Hawaii, California, South Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, and Nevada[141]. - The company has approximately 722,000 members across its Club offerings, providing access to over 8,000 properties within the Hilton system and various experiential vacation options[141]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were $3,697 million, a 24.9% increase from $2,959 million in the same period of 2023[156]. - Real estate sales and financing revenues for Q3 2024 reached $814 million, a 33.0% increase from $612 million in Q3 2023[156]. - Total segment revenues for Q3 2024 were $1,197 million, up 28.2% from $934 million in Q3 2023[156]. - Net income attributable to stockholders for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $29 million, a decrease of 68.5% compared to $92 million for the same period in 2023[158]. - The company reported a net income of $32 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, down 65.2% from $92 million in the same period of 2023[158]. Sales and Marketing Metrics - Contract sales increased to $777 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, up 28.9% from $603 million in the same period of 2023[170]. - Tour flow increased to 227,790, up from 163,699 in the same period last year, reflecting a significant growth in customer engagement[170]. - Sales revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024, reached $633 million, a 33.5% increase from $474 million in 2023[171]. Financing and Profitability - Financing propensity for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was 69%, up from 62% in the same period of 2023[144]. - Financing profit margin is calculated as a percentage of financing profit to financing revenue, indicating the profitability of the financing business[153]. - Financing revenue increased by $30 million to $105 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, representing a 40.0% growth from $75 million in 2023[173]. - Interest expense for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $84 million, an increase of 86.7% from $45 million in the same period of 2023[158]. Operational Metrics - Real estate profit margin is considered an important non-GAAP operating measure, reflecting the efficiency of sales and marketing spending[153]. - The management agreements with HOAs provide for a cost-plus management fee, typically earning 10% to 15% of the costs to operate the applicable resort, ensuring predictable revenue streams[147]. - Adjusted EBITDA attributable to stockholders is a key measure used by management to evaluate operating performance, although it is not recognized under U.S. GAAP[150]. Expenses and Costs - Sales and marketing expense increased by 39.8% to $467 million in Q3 2024 from $334 million in Q3 2023[166]. - General and administrative expenses rose by 10.0% to $44 million in Q3 2024 from $40 million in Q3 2023[163]. - Depreciation and amortization expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were $68 million, an increase of 28.3% from $53 million in the same period of 2023[158]. Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash used in investing activities was $1,514 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $47 million for the same period in 2023[189]. - Net cash provided by financing activities was $971 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to net cash used of $270 million for the same period in 2023[190]. - The company had $308 million remaining borrowing capacity under the revolver facility as of September 30, 2024[184]. Other Financial Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2024, increased by 14.1% to $307 million from $269 million in the same period of 2023[161]. - Total Adjusted EBITDA attributable to stockholders for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $838 million, up 14.0% from $735 million in the same period of 2023[161]. - Real estate profit increased by 4.4% to $167 million in Q3 2024 compared to $160 million in Q3 2023[163].

For the quarter ended September 2024, Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported revenue of $1.31 billion, up 28.3% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.67, compared to $0.98 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +1.48% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.70, the EPS surprise was -4.29%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wal ...

Core Viewpoint - Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported quarterly earnings of $0.67 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.70 per share, and down from $0.98 per share a year ago, indicating a negative earnings surprise of -4.29% [1] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.31 billion for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.48%, compared to $1.02 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Hilton Grand Vacations has exceeded consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Hilton Grand Vacations shares have not appreciated since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 24.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.88 on revenues of $1.32 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.55 on revenues of $5 billion [7] - The trend for estimate revisions ahead of the earnings release has been unfavorable, which may impact future stock performance [6] Industry Context - The Hotels and Motels industry, to which Hilton Grand Vacations belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 11% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8] - H World Group, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.69 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +23.2% [9]

The upcoming report from Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $0.70 per share, indicating a decline of 28.6% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $1.29 billion, representing an increase of 26.4% year over year.The current level reflects an upward revision of 5.9% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over th ...

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released o ...

Thomas Barwick When it comes to investment opportunities, timeshares don't exactly have the best reputation. Strict visitation schedules, high fees, and sketchy developers have given the industry a bad name - and for good reason. From a buyer perspective, timeshare contracts are notoriously hard to break, and selling a timeshare will often only net you pennies on the proverbial dollar. However, in recent years, the industry has transitioned towards a points-based model, where an upfront buy-in gives a buyer ...