I have been working in the logistics sector for almost two decades. I have been into stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for almost a decade. Currently, I focus on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ Stocks, particularly in banks, telco, logistics, and hotels. Since 2014, I have been trading on the PH stock market. I focus on banking, telco, and retail sectors. A colleague encouraged me to engage in the stock market as part of my portfolio diversification instead of putting all my savings in banks and properties. ...

Financial Performance - Total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $4.981 billion, up from $3.978 billion in 2023, representing a growth of 25.2%[472] - Net income attributable to stockholders decreased to $47 million in 2024 from $313 million in 2023, a decline of 85%[472] - The company reported a diluted earnings per share of $0.45 for 2024, down from $2.80 in 2023[472] - For the year ended December 31, 2024, net income decreased to $60 million from $313 million in 2023, representing a decline of approximately 80.8%[477] - The company reported pro forma revenue of $5,028 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $5,013 million for 2023, with net income of $66 million for 2024, down from $224 million in 2023[564] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $11.442 billion as of December 31, 2024, compared to $8.685 billion in 2023, reflecting a growth of 31.5%[470] - The company’s debt, net, increased to $4.601 billion in 2024 from $3.049 billion in 2023, an increase of 50.8%[470] - The company had over 200 properties located in various regions, including the U.S., Europe, and Asia, as of December 31, 2024[482] - The total gross carrying amount of intangible assets increased to $2,547 million as of December 31, 2024, up from $1,704 million in 2023, with a net carrying amount of $1,787 million after accumulated amortization of $760 million[612] Acquisitions - The company completed the acquisition of Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation for approximately $1.6 billion on January 17, 2024, expected to enhance offerings and customer reach[483] - The fair value of total assets acquired in the Bluegreen Acquisition was $2,515 million, while total liabilities assumed were $1,324 million, resulting in net assets acquired of $1,191 million[548] - Goodwill recorded in connection with the Bluegreen Acquisition amounted to $565 million, allocated to the Resort Operations and Club Management Segment ($142 million) and Real Estate Sales and Financing Segment ($423 million)[561] - The Grand Islander Acquisition was completed on December 1, 2023, for approximately $117 million, expanding the company's product offerings and providing upgrade opportunities for existing members[566] Financing and Debt - The company expects to secure fixed-rate funding to match its fixed-rate timeshare financing receivables while monitoring interest rate risk for any future variable-rate debt[427] - The company has variable-rate debt with a weighted average interest rate of 6.498%, totaling $2,841 million as of December 31, 2024[429] - Proceeds from debt in 2024 amounted to $2.758 billion, significantly higher than $758 million in 2023[477] - The company entered into a new $400 million senior secured term loan due January 2028, with a pricing of SOFR plus 1.75%[620] Revenue Recognition - The company recognizes revenue from prepaid vacation packages when customers stay at properties, including an estimate for expected breakage[491] - Revenue from annual dues for membership renewals is recognized over the period services are rendered, reflecting a steady income stream from club memberships[494] - The company recognizes management fees based on a percentage of costs to operate resorts, with fees recognized over time as services are consumed[495] Interest and Financing Receivables - The allowance for financing receivables losses as of December 31, 2024, was $1.1 billion, encompassing amounts from Legacy-HGV, Legacy-Diamond, and Legacy-Bluegreen operations[451] - The total originated timeshare financing receivables as of December 31, 2024, amounted to $2.932 billion, with a weighted-average interest rate of 14.9%[588] - The total acquired timeshare financing receivables as of December 31, 2024, was $1.084 billion, with a weighted-average interest rate of 15.0%[593] - The allowance for credit losses increased to $74 million in 2024 from $60 million in 2023, reflecting a 23.3% rise[581] Internal Controls and Compliance - The company assessed the effectiveness of its internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2024, excluding the operations of Bluegreen, which were acquired during the year[436] - The company maintained effective internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2024, based on COSO criteria[460] Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash provided by operating activities for 2024 was $309 million, slightly down from $312 million in 2023[477] - The company reported a net cash used in investing activities of $1.571 billion in 2024, compared to $158 million in 2023[477] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had investments in unconsolidated affiliates with a carrying amount of $73 million and received cash distributions of approximately $16 million from BRE Ace LLC[609][610] Expenses and Impairments - The acquisition and integration-related expenses for 2024 were $237 million, significantly higher than $68 million in 2023[472] - The company recognized a $2 million impairment for the year ended December 31, 2024, related to the closure of certain sales centers[603] - Amortization expense on intangible assets for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $216 million, compared to $163 million in 2023[613] Inventory and Assets Management - The total inventory as of December 31, 2024, was $2,244 million, up from $1,400 million in 2023, indicating a 60.3% growth[601] - The current balance of completed unsold Vacation Ownership Interests (VOIs) increased to $1,898 million in 2024 from $1,259 million in 2023, representing a 50.8% increase[601] - The company evaluates the carrying value of property and equipment for impairment, recognizing losses when expected future cash flows are less than the net book value[519]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported contract sales were $837 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $289 million, and margins excluding reimbursements of 23%, exceeding expectations [14][38] - For the year, contract sales reached $3 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $1.1 billion, with a record adjusted free cash flow of $837 million [37][60] - The company returned a record $432 million to shareholders through stock repurchases, reducing diluted share count by 10% [37][61] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the real estate segment, contract sales grew to $837 million for the quarter, up 9% year-over-year on a pro forma basis, with Bluegreen contributing $208 million [39] - The rental business showed good top-line trends, although profitability was impacted by seasonality and the addition of Bluegreen's rental business [21][55] - The financing business generated revenues of $153 million with segment profit of $93 million, achieving margins of 61% [44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The APAC region showed strong performance, particularly in Hawaii, with high demand for properties like the new Kohaku project in Waikiki [16][101] - Occupancy rates were slightly up at 82%, with a robust package pipeline of over 710,000 packages [19] - The company reported a consolidated member count of approximately 724,000, with a net owner growth (NOG) of 1.1% [21][53] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve $100 million in cost synergies from the Bluegreen acquisition, with significant organizational changes already implemented [10][25] - The launch of HGV Max for Bluegreen members is expected to enhance the value proposition and drive growth in contract sales and EBITDA [12][24] - The financing optimization program aims to increase nonrecourse borrowing activity, targeting a securitization rate of 70% to 80% [47][48] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the consumer environment remains consistent, with inflation and elevated interest rates impacting spending, but travel intentions remain strong [12][102] - The guidance for 2025 reflects expectations for growth in contract sales and EBITDA, despite anticipated headwinds from increased consumer financing interest expenses [62] - The company is optimistic about its momentum heading into 2025, with a focus on improving core quality and tour outcomes [32][102] Other Important Information - The company has significant excess liquidity of over $2 billion and a debt balance of $4.6 billion [46][65] - The President and CFO, Dan Matthews, is on a temporary leave of absence, with Erin Day stepping in as Acting CFO [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about growth rates between workflow and VPG for 2025? - Management expects strong top-line revenue driven by growth in contract deals, with tours anticipated in the low to mid-single digits and VPG in a similar range [70][72] Question: Can you elaborate on the optimization program? - The program involves increasing the pace of securitizations, which will provide more cash infusion for share repurchases while receiving less immediate income [78][80] Question: What is the outlook for loan loss provisions in 2025? - The provision is expected to stabilize in the mid-teens, with some headwinds anticipated in Q1 [88] Question: How is the Bluegreen HGV Max rollout progressing? - The launch has seen a strong uptick, but it will take 18 to 24 months to fully engage all members [93][95] Question: What changes have been observed in customer behavior post-election? - Leisure travel remains strong, with improvements across all brands and segments, particularly in APAC and Hawaii [100][102] Question: What is the anticipated inventory investment for 2025? - The company expects inventory investment to be around $450 million, primarily for completing pre-COVID projects [106][109]

Financing Business Optimization F E B R U A R Y 2 0 2 5 Securitization overview Securitizations accelerate the conversion of receivables into cash flow, pulling forward the return of cash versus waiting 7-10 years for the mortgages receivables to pay off Mortgage receivable Real Estate group HGV balance sheet HGV warehouse facility lenders Cash The warehouse facility acts like a private securitization market, allowing HGV to monetize its receivables regardless of external market conditions securitization in ...

Core Insights - Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported $1.28 billion in revenue for Q4 2024, a 26% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.89% [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $0.49, down from $1.01 a year ago, representing a surprise of -35.53% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.76 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Cost reimbursements revenue was $135 million, exceeding the average estimate of $126.33 million by analysts, marking a 39.2% year-over-year increase [4] - Sales of Vacation Ownership Interests (VOIs), net, totaled $450 million, below the estimated $516.28 million, but still reflecting a 19.7% increase from the previous year [4] - Revenue from rental and ancillary services was $174 million, slightly below the estimate of $176.81 million, with a year-over-year increase of 6.1% [4] - Financing revenue reached $153 million, surpassing the average estimate of $114.52 million, showing an impressive year-over-year growth of 86.6% [4] - Sales, marketing, brand, and other fees generated $166 million, exceeding the average estimate of $142.28 million, with a year-over-year increase of 24.8% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Hilton Grand Vacations have returned -2.3%, compared to a -2.2% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported quarterly earnings of $0.49 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.76 per share, and down from $1.01 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -35.53% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.28 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.89%, compared to year-ago revenues of $1.02 billion [2] - Over the last four quarters, Hilton Grand Vacations has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once and topped consensus revenue estimates just once [2] 分组2 - The stock has added about 4% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.3% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.74 on $1.26 billion in revenues, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.60 on $5.34 billion in revenues [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Hotels and Motels sector is currently in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q4 2024 were $1.284 billion, up from $1.019 billion in Q4 2023, impacted by a net deferral of $90 million[6][4] - Net income attributable to stockholders for Q4 2024 was $20 million, down from $68 million in Q4 2023, with adjusted net income at $49 million compared to $111 million[6][4] - Diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was $0.19, a decrease from $0.62 in Q4 2023, with adjusted diluted EPS at $0.49 compared to $1.01[6][4] - Adjusted EBITDA attributable to stockholders for Q4 2024 was $240 million, down from $270 million in Q4 2023, affected by a net deferral of $49 million[6][4] - Total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached $4,981 million, up from $3,978 million in 2023, marking a 25.2% increase[68] - Net income attributable to stockholders for the year was $313 million, with quarterly figures of $73 million, $80 million, $92 million, and $68 million respectively[1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year totaled $1,005 million, with quarterly figures of $218 million, $248 million, $269 million, and $270 million respectively[1] - Total net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $60 million, compared to $313 million in 2023, indicating an 81% decrease[94] Cash Flow and Debt - Free cash flow for Q4 2024 was $48 million, compared to $(28) million for the same period in the prior year, with adjusted free cash flow at $883 million[18] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $328 million, down from $589 million at the end of 2023, with total cash and cash equivalents including restricted cash at $766 million[71] - The company reported a significant increase in proceeds from non-recourse debt, totaling $944 million in Q4 2024, compared to $400 million in Q4 2023[71] - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q4 2024 was $105 million, compared to no cash provided in Q4 2023, while annual cash provided was $309 million versus $312 million in 2023[73] - As of Dec. 31, 2024, total cash and cash equivalents were $328 million, with total corporate debt of $4.6 billion at a weighted average interest rate of 6.14%[15] Sales and Membership - Total contract sales for Q4 2024 were $837 million, an increase of $265 million compared to Q4 2023[10] - Sales of VOIs, net increased to $450 million in Q4 2024 from $376 million in Q4 2023, representing a 19.6% growth[68] - The company reported a total of approximately 720,000 Club Members, indicating a strong customer base[39] - Total members increased to 723,968 by December 31, 2024, up from 528,789 in 2023, indicating a growth of 37%[84] - Contract sales for the three months ended December 31, 2024, reached $837 million, up from $572 million in 2023, marking a 46.5% increase[78] Profit Margins and Expenses - The company incurred $44 million in acquisition and integration-related expenses in Q4 2024, compared to $26 million in Q4 2023, with annual expenses rising to $237 million from $68 million[76] - The company reported a profit margin of 19.1% for Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2024, down from 26.5% in Q4 2023, while the annual profit margin was 22.0% compared to 25.3% in 2023[76] - Real estate profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $539 million, down from $575 million in 2023[94] - Financing profit for Q4 2024 was $153 million, compared to $82 million in Q4 2023, reflecting an 86.6% increase[68] Future Outlook - The company expects full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA attributable to stockholders to be in the range of $1.125 billion to $1.165 billion[4] - Forward-looking statements indicate management's expectations regarding future revenues, earnings, and cash flow, subject to various risks and uncertainties[31] - The company plans to continue focusing on strategic opportunities and market expansion in the vacation ownership sector[39] Other Financial Metrics - Interest expense for the year was $178 million, with quarterly expenses of $44 million, $44 million, $45 million, and $45 million respectively[1] - Income tax expense for the year amounted to $136 million, with quarterly expenses of $17 million, $35 million, $44 million, and $40 million respectively[1] - Depreciation and amortization for the year was $213 million, with quarterly figures of $51 million, $52 million, $53 million, and $57 million respectively[1] - Adjusted net income attributable to stockholders for Q4 2024 was $49 million, a decrease of 56% from $111 million in Q4 2023[93] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $2.73, down from $3.63 in 2023, reflecting a 25% decline[93]

Core Insights - Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.76 per share, reflecting a decline of 24.8% year over year, while revenues are forecasted to reach $1.3 billion, indicating a growth of 27.1% compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.7% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Revenues- Cost reimbursements' to be $126.33 million, a change of +30.2% from the year-ago quarter [5] - The estimated 'Revenues- Sales of VOIs, net' is $516.28 million, reflecting a change of +37.3% year over year [5] - 'Revenues- Rental and ancillary services' are expected to reach $176.81 million, indicating a +7.8% change from the previous year [6] - 'Revenues- Financing' is projected at $114.52 million, showing a significant increase of +39.7% from the year-ago quarter [6] - 'Revenues- Sales, marketing, brand and other fees' are estimated to be $142.28 million, reflecting a +7% change from the previous year [7] Market Performance - Shares of Hilton Grand Vacations have shown a return of -0.5% over the past month, aligning with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change, and the company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it will mirror overall market performance in the near future [8]

Core Viewpoint - Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2024, which could significantly influence its stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for HGV's quarterly earnings is $0.76 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 24.8%. Revenues are projected to reach $1.3 billion, representing a 27.1% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.67%, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for HGV is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +6.73%, suggesting a bullish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [10][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, HGV was expected to post earnings of $0.70 per share but actually reported $0.67, resulting in a surprise of -4.29%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [12][13]. Investment Considerations - While HGV appears to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, it is essential for investors to consider other factors that may influence stock performance beyond just earnings results [14][16].

Core Insights - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) is focusing on diversifying its product portfolio and expanding its global market reach through strategic acquisitions and partnerships [1] - The company's shares have gained 6.2% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector but outperforming the Zacks Hotels and Motels industry and the S&P 500 Index [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HGV's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) has decreased to $3.55 from $3.63, indicating a year-over-year growth of 3.4% [3] Growth Driving Factors - HGV is engaging in incremental buyouts and partnerships to diversify its product offerings, including the acquisition of Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation for approximately $1.6 billion, which adds nearly 200 properties in 14 new regions and eight new states [5] - The company has entered into a 10-year exclusive marketing agreement with Bass Pro Shops to market vacation packages, with sales and marketing operations at 132 locations as of September 30, 2024 [6] - HGV is undergoing rebranding initiatives, with 80% of Diamond properties rebranded in 2024 and plans to rebrand the majority of Bluegreen properties by 2026 [8] Shareholder Value and Financial Performance - HGV has a balanced capital allocation strategy, repurchasing 7.4 million shares for $307 million during the first nine months of 2024 [10] - The company's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 16.4%, significantly higher than the industry's 5.4%, indicating efficient use of shareholders' funds [11] Challenges - HGV is facing high operating expenses, with total operating expenses increasing to $3.37 billion from $2.50 billion year over year during the first nine months of 2024 [12]