Intuit ( INTU ) has collapsed by ~45% since my July Buy thesis , with the bulk of the fall coming since November 2025 and more recently, along with a software sell-off across the board. I am using thisI am a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management. My focus is on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to uncover high-growth investment opportunities. As a former Vice President at Barclays, I led teams in model valid ...

Core Viewpoint - Intuit (INTU) has experienced a significant decline of approximately 45% since July 2025, primarily driven by a broader software sell-off that intensified in November 2025 [1] Company Analysis - The decline in Intuit's stock price reflects broader market trends affecting the software industry, indicating potential challenges in the sector [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings in evaluating investment opportunities within the software industry [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on uncovering high-growth investment opportunities through rigorous financial modeling and quantitative research [1] - The approach combines risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, aiming to provide actionable insights for investors [1]

Any discussions with Generali are connected to the commercial partnerships tying Italy's biggest insurer to UniCredit , the bank's Chief Executive Andrea Orcel said on Monday. ...

这周二，SaaS、数据和软件类投资公司的市值蒸发了约 3000 亿美元。这并非因为盈利不及预期或宏观经济冲击，而是因为一款人工智能产品发布。 这场危机已经持续数月。等到市场做出反应时，IGV 软件指数已较 9 月下旬的峰值下跌了约 30%。上周发生变化的不是方向，而是速度。 几家根基深厚的企业软件公司股价在一天之内大幅下跌。Salesforce、ServiceNow、Adobe 和 Workday 的股价均下跌约 7%。Intuit 的股价更是暴跌近 11%。与此同时，整个行业的估值倍数也急剧下降。软件公司的平均预期市盈率在短短几个月内从约 39 倍暴跌至约 21 倍。做空者已通过押注传统 SaaS 业务在 2026 年获利超过 200 亿美元，并且还在加倍下注。 除非核心假设被打破，否则市场不会抹去如此巨大的价值。 1 纳德拉判断 SaaS 已死 在过去二十年的大部分时间里，企业软件受益于异常稳定的经济形势。软件开发成本高昂，转换成本也很高，数据都存储在专有系统中。 一旦某个平台成为记录系统，它便会一直占据这一位置。这种信念支撑着从公开市场估值倍数到私募股权收购再到私募信贷承销等方方面面。经常性收入 被视为 ...

分组1 - Intuit's stock has declined approximately 45% since its 52-week high of $813 due to concerns over potential disruptions from artificial intelligence [1] - The stock sell-off began in July 2025, indicating a significant market reaction to AI-related fears [1] - David, a long-term investor, emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality growth stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market [1] 分组2 - David's investment strategy includes focusing on growth and momentum stocks, utilizing options for strategy [1] - He previously advised investors to buy at the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009, leading to substantial gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the following decade [1]

分组1 - Intuit's stock has declined approximately 45% since its 52-week high of $813 due to concerns over potential disruptions from artificial intelligence [1] - The stock sell-off began in July 2025, indicating a significant market reaction to AI-related fears [1] - David, a long-term investor, emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality growth stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market [1] 分组2 - David's investment strategy includes focusing on growth and momentum stocks, utilizing options for strategy [1] - He successfully advised investors to buy at the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009, leading to substantial gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the following decade [1]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has experienced significant losses over the past week, with major companies facing double-digit declines, marking a three-month downturn in tech stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The slump in U.S. technology stocks has persisted for three months, primarily affecting growth stocks, which are companies that typically increase earnings faster than the market average [2]. - Investors have shifted their preference from growth stocks to value stocks, which are less volatile and often have cheaper valuations relative to their earnings and long-term growth potential [3]. - The Russell 1000 Value index has increased by 8.4% since Halloween, while the tech-heavy Russell 1000 Growth index has decreased by 3.7% [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There has been a notable decline in investor optimism regarding artificial intelligence, which had previously driven technology stock prices higher [6]. - The recent downturn in tech stocks has been exacerbated by a lack of confidence in AI's ability to significantly enhance corporate financial performance and the broader economy [6]. - The rapid rise in tech stock prices has made them vulnerable to sharp declines upon any signs of disappointment, as evidenced by Microsoft's recent stock drop despite beating Wall Street expectations [7]. Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has seen a decline of almost 21%, Intuit (INTU) is down more than 17%, Micron Technology (MU) has dropped nearly 13%, Microsoft (MSFT) is down about 7%, Nvidia (NVDA) has fallen 9%, and Salesforce (CRM) has decreased by 12.5% [8]. - Microsoft experienced its largest one-day stock drop since March 2020, falling 11% due to signs of slowing cloud revenue, which is closely tied to AI [9].

Article contentInvestors fled software stocks this week to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars after artificial intelligence (AI) developer Anthropic released a tool to automate legal work that initially left the developers of legal software “reeling” only to spread to other segments of the sector, David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., said in a note. Software stocks are down 18 per cent this year and Rosenberg estimated that the losses in the sector now total more than ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant sell-off in the software sector, triggered by the introduction of AI capabilities by Anthropic, which threatens traditional software companies and their business models [4][6][19]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The global capital market has indiscriminately sold off software stocks, with major companies like Salesforce, Workday, and Intuit losing nearly $258 billion in market value in a single day [4]. - The North American software index experienced a 15% decline in January, marking the worst monthly performance since 2008 [4]. - The sell-off has spread to the Asia-Pacific market, leading to sharp declines in the stock prices of several industry leaders [4]. Group 2: AI's Impact on Software - Anthropic's AI application, Claude Cowork, has introduced capabilities that allow it to perform tasks traditionally done by humans, such as managing files and operating software [8][10]. - The release of specific plugins for various industries, including law and finance, indicates a shift where AI is not just a tool but a competitor to traditional software providers [11][13]. - Analysts predict that up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs may be impacted by AI within the next 1 to 5 years, posing a threat to companies that provide software tools for these roles [13]. Group 3: Software Industry Challenges - Software vendors are in a precarious position, needing to demonstrate revenue growth to alleviate concerns about AI's impact [15]. - Major companies are announcing layoffs, indicating a tightening of corporate budgets and a reluctance to invest in traditional software when AI can perform tasks at a lower cost [16]. - The trend of "downgrading" software is emerging, as companies reconsider the necessity of expensive SaaS solutions in light of AI capabilities [16]. Group 4: Future of Software Companies - The software industry is expected to split into two categories: "tool-based" software that will likely be eliminated and "system-based" software that must adapt to survive [24][25]. - Future software companies will need to shift from a per-user pricing model to a results-based pricing model, as AI agents reduce the need for human users [27]. - Gartner predicts that by the end of 2026, 40% of enterprise SaaS will incorporate outcome-based pricing elements, marking a significant shift in the industry [27].

Group 1: Market Overview - The narrative of "Software-mageddon" is gaining traction among global investors, with debates on whether to initiate bullish calls on recently battered software stocks [1] - Large institutional investors are beginning to enter the market to buy the dip in software stocks that have experienced significant declines, with some supporting optimistic views on AI-focused software giants [1][3] - The S&P 500 Software and Services Index has dropped approximately 25% since its recent peak at the end of October, while the overall S&P 500 index has remained relatively stable [3][4] Group 2: Impact of AI Tools - The launch of Anthropic's AI programming tool, Claude Cowork, has intensified fears of AI agents disrupting the SaaS software industry, leading to a collective sell-off in software stocks [2] - The S&P 500 Software and Services Index experienced its worst performance since May 2002, with a significant market cap loss exceeding $800 billion [4] Group 3: Investor Reactions and Divergence - Institutional investors are showing mixed reactions, with some cautiously buying while others remain hesitant, indicating a divide in sentiment regarding the software sector [8] - Some portfolio managers are starting to see long-term value in certain software stocks, while others are waiting for stronger catalysts, such as robust AI-related revenue reports, before making aggressive purchases [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook and AI Integration - The market is reassessing the value chain in the software industry, with AI potentially redistributing profits rather than completely replacing existing software infrastructure [11][12] - The current sell-off is seen as a response to the question of how much profit pools will be redistributed among SaaS vendors due to AI advancements, with a focus on real deployment and revenue growth from AI-related products [12][13]