Core Insights - Intuit Inc. is set to report its earnings on August 21, 2025, with a historical positive post-earnings reaction rate of 71% over the past five years, yielding a median gain of 2.9% [2][7] - The consensus for the upcoming quarter anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of $2.66 on revenue of $3.75 billion, compared to EPS of $1.99 on revenue of $3.18 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - Intuit's current market capitalization is $201 billion, with trailing twelve months revenue of $18 billion, operating profit of $4.7 billion, and net income of $3.5 billion [4] Earnings Reaction History - Over the last five years, Intuit experienced 12 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) moves post-earnings, resulting in a positive hit rate of approximately 71% [7] - In the last three years, the positive reaction rate has slightly decreased to 67%, with a median positive return of 2.9% and a median negative return of -3.8% [7] Trading Strategies - A pre-earnings strategy suggests using historical probabilities of positive reactions to establish positions ahead of earnings releases [6] - A post-earnings strategy involves evaluating immediate reactions and their correlation with medium-term performance to inform trading decisions [6][8] Correlation with Peers - The performance of peers can influence Intuit's post-earnings reactions, with historical data indicating correlations between Intuit's 1D moves and those of its peers reporting around the same time [9]

Industry Overview - The mobile payments market is experiencing rapid growth due to the shift from cash to digital transactions, driven by convenience and security [1][9] - Increased internet penetration and smartphone usage are contributing to the adoption of digital payments, transforming everyday transactions [3] - The industry is diversifying with contactless payment options such as mobile wallets, biometrics, and QR codes, enhancing the global digital payments market [4] Company Insights - **PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)**: - Benefiting from robust growth in total payment volume and strengthening customer engagement [10][11] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 4% and 12% respectively for the current year [12] - **JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)**: - Projected net interest income (NII) growth at a CAGR of 2.9% by 2027, supported by business expansion and loan demand [13] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates of -0.2% and -1.3% respectively for the current year [15] - **Intuit Inc. (INTU)**: - Strong momentum in Online Services revenues driven by Mailchimp, payroll, and Money [16] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 11.7% and 13.7% respectively for the current year [19] - **ACI Worldwide Inc. (ACIW)**: - Powers electronic payments for over 5,000 organizations globally, executing $14 trillion in payments daily [21][22] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 8% and 7.6% respectively for the current year [22] - **Remitly Global Inc. (RELY)**: - Engaged in providing digital financial services, with an expected revenue growth rate of 27.9% and earnings growth of over 100% for the current year [23][24]

Core Insights - Intuit Inc. (INTU) stock has experienced a 12% decline after reaching new highs at the end of July, presenting a buying opportunity for investors ahead of its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings release on August 21 [1][15] - Over the past 20 years, Intuit's stock has outperformed the tech sector, tripling its growth compared to the sector's 834% increase [10] - The company is expected to maintain double-digit sales and earnings growth due to its expanding portfolio and advancements in artificial intelligence [2][9] Financial Performance - Intuit has averaged 16% revenue growth and approximately 15% GAAP earnings growth over the last decade, driven by the consistent demand for its TurboTax software [3] - Projected sales growth for FY25 is 15%, with an anticipated revenue of $20.94 billion, up from $16.29 billion last year [9] - Adjusted earnings are expected to increase by 18% in fiscal 2025 and 14% in fiscal 2026 [9] Product and Market Expansion - Intuit has significantly expanded its offerings, now serving around 100 million customers through products like TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks, and Mailchimp [4] - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities, particularly with TurboTax Live, which combines human expertise with AI automation, resulting in a 47% sales increase last quarter to $2 billion [5][6] Stock Valuation and Market Position - Despite recent stock declines, Intuit is finding support at critical technical levels, including its 21-week moving average [11] - The stock is currently trading at a discount compared to its 10-year median valuation and is 50% below its peak forward earnings multiple of 41.7X [14] - Intuit's consistent growth has historically commanded a premium valuation from investors [14]

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds globally, significantly increased its investments in major U.S. tech companies during the second quarter of this year, particularly in Nvidia, which is now its third-largest holding [1][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Increases - Bridgewater raised its stake in Nvidia by nearly 4.39 million shares, bringing its total to 7.23 million shares, a 154% increase from the previous quarter, making up 4.61% of its total portfolio [3][7]. - Microsoft saw a 111.9% increase in shares, with an additional 905,620 shares added, totaling 1.72 million shares, now representing 3.44% of the portfolio [3][7]. - Alphabet was increased by approximately 2.56 million shares, totaling 5.60 million shares, an 84.1% rise, now accounting for 3.98% of the portfolio [3][7]. - Meta's shares increased by over 38,146 shares to 807,073 shares, marking an 89.6% increase, now 2.40% of the portfolio [4][7]. - Uber's shares surged by 314,000, a 531% increase, now making up 1.41% of the portfolio [5][7]. - Johnson & Johnson's shares increased by over 199,000, a 667.8% rise, now 1.41% of the portfolio [6][7]. Investment Reductions - Bridgewater reduced its Amazon holdings by approximately 795,500 shares, a 6% decrease, now 1.10% of the portfolio [8][9]. - AMD shares were reduced by about 408,860 shares, a decrease of 18.89% [11]. - PayPal saw a reduction of nearly 447,790 shares, a drop of over 12% [10]. - The fund completely exited its positions in Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com, which were previously increased in the first quarter [12][13]. New Investments - Bridgewater initiated a position in Arm with nearly 474,000 shares, representing 0.31% of the total portfolio [14]. - New positions were also taken in Intuit, EQT, Lyft, and Ulta Beauty, with each holding a small percentage of the overall portfolio [14]. Major Holdings - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF remains Bridgewater's largest holding, despite a reduction of 731,882 shares, now accounting for 6.51% of the portfolio [15][18]. - The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF increased by nearly 6.2% to approximately 2.31 million shares, now 5.78% of the portfolio [17][18]. - The second to tenth largest holdings include Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Salesforce, Booking Holdings, and GE Vernova, with various changes in share counts and percentages [17][18].

除了上述科技巨头，共享用车鼻祖Uber和强生也在二季度获得了桥水的大幅增持。Uber被增持314万 股，增幅531%，持仓占比从一季度的0.2%升至1.41%，成为第12大持仓；强生则被增持逾199万股，环 比增幅667.8%，持仓占比从一季度的0.23%升至1.41%。Uber在共享出行领域的全球布局以及强生在医 药健康领域的稳定业绩，或许是吸引桥水加仓的重要因素。 在大幅增持部分科技股的同时，桥水二季度也对一些科技巨头进行了减持操作。位列美股科技七巨头之 一的亚马逊就遭遇了减持。二季度桥水的亚马逊持股环比一季度减少约79.55万股，降幅约6%，持仓占 比从一季度的1.17%降至1.10%，成为第20大持仓。英伟达的劲敌AMD也在减持名单之中，其持股数环 比下降40.89万股，降幅近18.9%，持股占比从一季度的1.03%降至1.0%。此外，一季度桥水增持236万 股、增幅达52.5%的支付巨头Paypal，二季度被减持近44.8万股，降幅逾12%；占比较小的持仓中，高通 被减持32.6万股，持股环比降幅约30%，持仓占比不足0.5%。 中概股在桥水二季度的持仓调整中成为了"重灾区"。一季度桥水曾大幅增持阿 ...

Group 1 - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in Nvidia by over 154%, making it the fund's third-largest position [2] - Microsoft saw a holding increase of over 111%, while Google and Meta increased their stakes by over 84% and nearly 90%, respectively, ranking as the sixth, fifth, and seventh largest positions in the fund [2] - Uber's holdings surged by more than five times, and Johnson & Johnson's stake increased by over 667% [2] Group 2 - Bridgewater reduced its positions in Amazon by nearly 6%, AMD by nearly 19%, and PayPal by over 12% [2] - The fund completely exited its positions in Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com [2] - New positions include chip design company Arm, as well as Intuit, EQT, Lyft, and Ulta Beauty [2] Group 3 - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains Bridgewater's largest holding, although the stake was reduced by approximately 21.9% [2] - The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) holdings remained unchanged in the second quarter [2]

Group 1 - Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds globally, significantly increased its holdings in major U.S. tech companies during Q2 of this year, particularly in Nvidia [1] - The fund raised its stake in Nvidia by nearly 4.39 million shares, bringing its total holdings to 7.23 million shares, a growth of over 154% compared to the end of Q1 [1] - Bridgewater also added to its positions in other tech giants, including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta, while completely exiting positions in Alibaba and Chevron [1] Group 2 - In Q2, Bridgewater initiated a new position in chip design company Arm with approximately 474,000 shares, representing 0.31% of its total holdings [1] - The fund also entered new positions in Intuit (approximately 59,000 shares), EQT (787,000 shares), Lyft (approximately 247,900 shares), and Ulta Beauty (over 58,000 shares), with respective holdings of 0.19%, 0.19%, 0.16%, and 0.11% [1]

Group 1 - Khaveen Investments is a global Investment Advisory Firm serving high-net-worth individuals, corporations, associations, and institutions [1] - The firm offers comprehensive services including market and security research, business valuation, and wealth management [1] - The flagship Macroquantamental Hedge Fund maintains a diversified portfolio across various asset classes, geographies, sectors, and industries [1] Group 2 - The investment approach integrates top-down and bottom-up analysis, blending global macro, fundamental, and quantitative strategies [1] - Core expertise lies in disruptive technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G, Autonomous and Electric Vehicles, FinTech, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and the Internet of Things (IoT) [1]

Company Performance - Intuit's stock closed at $784.87, reflecting a gain of +1.12% from the previous trading session, but underperformed compared to the S&P 500's gain of 1.47% [1] - Over the last month, Intuit's shares decreased by 0.58%, while the Computer and Technology sector gained 3.41% and the S&P 500 gained 0.64% [2] Upcoming Earnings Report - Intuit is scheduled to release its earnings on August 21, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.65 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 33.17% [3] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $3.74 billion, which represents a 17.61% increase from the prior-year quarter [3] Full-Year Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Intuit's full-year earnings are $20.06 per share and revenue of $18.74 billion, reflecting year-over-year changes of +18.42% for earnings and 0% for revenue [4] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Intuit are important as they can indicate shifting business dynamics, with positive revisions seen as a favorable sign for the business outlook [4] Stock Performance Indicators - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates estimated changes, currently ranks Intuit at 2 (Buy), with a historical average return of +25% annually for 1 ranked stocks since 1988 [6] - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for Intuit has increased by 0.02% [6] Valuation Metrics - Intuit has a Forward P/E ratio of 34.03, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 23.64 [7] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 2.22, which is in line with the industry average [7] Industry Context - The Computer - Software industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 52, placing it in the top 22% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Investment Strategy - The wide moat strategy focuses on investing in companies with durable competitive advantages that ensure long-term profitability and market leadership, allowing them to withstand economic fluctuations [2][3]. Company Summaries Adobe Inc. (ADBE) - Adobe has integrated AI applications across its products, enhancing user efficiency and introducing tools like Adobe Firefly and Adobe Express for quick editing [7][9]. - The company is diversifying into digital marketing services through its AI-driven cloud platform, enabling personalized marketing experiences [8]. - ADBE has an expected revenue growth rate of 9.5% and earnings growth rate of 12% for the current year, with earnings estimates improving by 0.1% recently [11]. The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) - Disney is experiencing growth in Domestic Parks & Experiences, although international locations face challenges [12]. - The company anticipates double-digit operating income growth in fiscal 2025, with ESPN showing significant viewership growth [13]. - Disney's streaming business has turned profitable, with a second-quarter Direct-to-Consumer operating income of $336 million [14]. - DIS has an expected revenue growth rate of 4.1% and earnings growth rate of 16.3% for the current year, with earnings estimates improving by 0.3% recently [15]. Intuit Inc. (INTU) - Intuit is benefiting from steady revenue growth in its Online Ecosystem and Desktop segments, driven by strong performance in its services [16]. - The company’s generative AI tool, "Intuit Assist," provides personalized financial insights, enhancing user experience across its platforms [17]. - INTU has an expected revenue growth rate of 11.7% and earnings growth rate of 13.7% for the current year, with earnings estimates improving by 4.3% recently [19]. Rollins Inc. (ROL) - Rollins utilizes technology and disciplined acquisitions to enhance operations and customer service, maintaining a strong cash position with zero debt [20]. - The company has made 44 acquisitions in 2024, reflecting its growth strategy and commitment to increasing dividends [20]. - ROL has an expected revenue growth rate of 10.7% and earnings growth rate of 12.1% for the current year, with earnings estimates improving by 0.9% recently [21]. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Johnson & Johnson reported strong earnings, with growth driven by its Innovative Medicine unit and key products [22][23]. - Despite challenges in the MedTech segment, the company expects sales growth to improve in the second half of the year [23]. - JNJ has an expected revenue growth rate of 5.2% and earnings growth rate of 8.8% for the current year, with earnings estimates improving by 0.1% recently [24].