Core Insights - The sales of corrugated boxes in the U.S. continue to weaken, raising concerns about a disappointing holiday shopping season this year [1] - The third quarter saw the lowest shipment volume of corrugated boxes since 2015, continuing a trend of weakness from the second quarter [1][4] - Major companies in the packaging sector have warned that economic uncertainty is impacting retail and consumer spending [1] Industry Overview - Corrugated boxes are crucial packaging materials for food, daily necessities, and e-commerce shipping, often seen as a leading indicator of retail demand [4] - Typically, October sees a surge in box orders for retailers to stock up for the holiday season, but this year is notably sluggish [4] - A media survey indicated that most box factories reported October orders as "flat or below normal levels" [4] Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to a five-month low, and manufacturing activity has contracted for eight consecutive months [4] - Thomas Hassfurther, President of Packaging Corporation of America, noted a lack of economic momentum and highlighted ongoing trade uncertainties affecting business [4] Company Performance - Smurfit Westrock reported an 8.7% year-over-year decline in box volume in North America for the third quarter, leading to a stock price drop of over 12%, marking the lowest closing price since its listing in July 2024 [4] - International Paper lowered its net sales forecast for this year and 2027, with a nearly 13% drop in stock price following the announcement [5] - CEO Andy Silvernail of International Paper projected a 1% to 1.5% decline in corrugated box shipments for 2024, attributing this to trade uncertainties, weak consumer confidence, and a sluggish real estate market [5] Market Outlook - Industry experts believe that the weak demand for corrugated boxes reflects a lack of manufacturing and retail restocking activity, suggesting that this year's holiday shopping season may fall short of previous years [5] - E-commerce, department stores, and durable goods sectors are facing heightened operational uncertainties [5]

Core Viewpoint - Following the Q3 release, International Paper's share price decreased by 12%, presenting a potential re-entry opportunity for investors [1]. Company Analysis - International Paper is recognized as a leading company among buy-side hedge professionals who conduct fundamental, income-oriented, long-term analysis across various sectors globally in developed markets [1].

Core Viewpoint - Following the Q3 release, International Paper's share price decreased by 12%, presenting a potential re-entry opportunity for investors [1]. Company Analysis - International Paper is recognized as a leading company among buy-side hedge professionals who conduct fundamental, income-oriented, long-term analysis across various sectors globally in developed markets [1].

Core Insights - International Paper reported a net loss of $1.1 billion for Q3 2025, a significant decline from a profit of $150 million in the same period last year, primarily due to $675 million in accelerated depreciation related to mill closures [1] - Despite the loss, net sales increased to $6.22 billion in Q3 2025 from $3.98 billion a year earlier, indicating strong revenue growth [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a 28% sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA across its Packaging Solutions businesses, attributed to price realization, cost management, and lower fiber costs [2] - The GCF division reported revenue of $2.8 billion in 2024, highlighting its significance within the company's portfolio [5] Operational Changes - International Paper closed four facilities in the US in 2025, including the Red River containerboard mill, which reduced annual containerboard capacity by 800,000 tonnes [3][4] - The shutdown affected approximately 179 salaried employees, representing 1% of the company's global workforce [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on sustainable packaging solutions and has agreed to sell its Global Cellulose Fibers business to American Industrial Partners for $1.5 billion, part of its strategy to concentrate on core operations [4]

Financial and Operational Highlights - Acadian Timber's third quarter of 2025 showed a mix of stable market demand and operational challenges [5] - Overall product demand remained stable despite ongoing economic uncertainty, with performance varying across operating regions [5] - In New Brunswick, strong timber sales volumes were supported by consistent contractor availability [5] - Main operations faced challenges due to limited contractor capacity and reduced productivity, impacting deliveries to customers [5]

Core Insights - International Paper Company (IP) reported a third-quarter 2025 adjusted loss of $0.43 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.53 earnings per share, impacted by $675 million in accelerated depreciation due to mill closures and strategic actions [1][11] - Net sales reached $6.22 billion, a 56.4% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by the acquisition of DS Smith, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.89 billion [2][11] - Gross profit rose 76.1% year-over-year to $1.94 billion, with a gross margin of 31.1%, up from 27.6% in the previous year [3] Financial Performance - Cost of sales was $4.29 billion, up 48.9% from $2.88 billion in the prior-year quarter [3] - Selling and administrative costs increased by 4.2% to $493 million from $473 million in the previous year [4] - Adjusted operating loss for the quarter was $224 million, compared to an adjusted operating profit of $113 million in Q3 2024 [4] Segment Performance - Packaging Solutions North America reported sales of $3.9 billion, a 7.1% increase year-over-year, but faced an operating loss of $166 million compared to a profit of $190 million in the prior-year quarter [7] - Packaging Solutions EMEA saw sales rise to $2.31 billion from $0.32 billion in the previous year, but reported an operating loss of $58 million, down from a profit of $7 million in the prior-year quarter [8] Cash and Debt Position - Cash and temporary investments totaled approximately $1 billion at the end of Q3, down from $1.06 billion at the end of 2024 [9] - Long-term debt increased to $8.99 billion from $5.36 billion at the end of 2024 [9] - Cash flow from operating activities was $0.79 billion in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $1.28 billion in the same period of 2024 [9] Stock Performance - The company's shares have declined by 6.5% over the past year, while the industry has seen a decline of 10.2% [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 40% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 370 basis points [10][14] - Third quarter revenue showed slight sequential improvement, driven by strong price realization and stable volumes, with EBITDA improving by 28% and margin expanding by approximately 300 basis points [13][14] - Free cash flow increased sequentially to $150 million, despite approximately $60 million of direct cash costs related to the transformation [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The packaging solutions business in North America grew EBITDA sequentially by 28%, reflecting the progress made with the 80/20 implementation [11] - In EMEA, adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $209 million, with price and mix contributing $13 million of improvement, although volume was lower than expected due to market softness [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American box industry shipments are now expected to decline approximately 1 to 1.5% for the full year, down from an initial expectation of growth [12] - EMEA box volume expectations have also been revised down to closer to 1% from an initial 2 to 3% range [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformation plan to reinforce its leadership in sustainable packaging solutions, emphasizing cost initiatives and customer experience [5][6] - The strategy includes simplifying the organization by exiting select businesses and markets, with a commitment to exclusively operate as a sustainable packaging business [6][10] - The company is implementing the Lighthouse model to improve operational efficiency and service levels across its North American and EMEA operations [10][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenging macro conditions in North America and EMEA but expressed confidence in the company's ability to control its destiny through a customer-centric approach [5][12] - The company expects continued EBITDA improvement in North America, building on strong first-half momentum, while also preparing for a challenging environment in EMEA [22][34] - Revised targets for 2025 include $24 billion in net sales and adjusted EBITDA of $3 billion, with a long-term goal of $5 billion in EBITDA by 2027 [36] Other Important Information - The company plans to close the sale of Global Cellulose Fibers by year-end, pending regulatory approval, and intends to reinvest proceeds into its Packaging Solutions businesses [13][18] - The company has identified approximately $60 million in annual stranded overhead costs related to the Global Cellulose Fibers business, which will be reallocated to the corporate line throughout 2025 [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Differences in EMEA vs North America Opportunities - Management noted that EMEA does not have the same magnitude of excess mill capacity as North America, but there are opportunities to address underutilization in the box system [42][44] Question: Volume Growth Assumptions for 2027 Target - The company expects volume growth of 1 to 1.5% in North America and 1 to 2% in Europe over time, with adjustments made to the 2027 target due to market conditions [60] Question: EBITDA Benefit from Mill Closures - The closure of Savannah is expected to have a neutral EBITDA impact, while Riceboro's closure is modestly positive, as it was not competitive in terms of cost [90][92] Question: Free Cash Flow Movement - The primary reason for the change in free cash flow guidance is the slowdown in the market, which has resulted in a loss of expected profit [68][70] Question: Strategic Rationale for Riverdale Conversion - The Riverdale conversion involves a $250 million investment with expected returns near 20%, transitioning to a more profitable business model [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 40% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 370 basis points [10][12] - Third quarter EBITDA improved by 28%, with a margin expansion of approximately 300 basis points [14] - Free cash flow in the quarter increased sequentially to $150 million, driven by strong growth in operating cash flow [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The packaging solutions business in North America grew EBITDA sequentially by 28%, reflecting the progress made with the 80/20 implementation [11] - In EMEA, adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $209 million, with a sequential margin expansion despite soft demand [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American box industry shipments are now expected to decline approximately 1%-1.5% for the full year, down from an initial expectation of a 1%-1.5% increase [12] - EMEA box volume expectations have also been revised down to closer to 1% from an initial 2%-3% range [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformation plan to reinforce its leadership in sustainable packaging solutions, emphasizing cost initiatives and customer experience [5][6] - The strategy includes simplifying the organization by exiting select businesses and markets, with a focus on becoming exclusively a sustainable packaging business [6][8] - The company is implementing the Lighthouse model to improve operational efficiency and service levels across its North American box system and is beginning to roll it out in EMEA [7][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenging macro conditions in North America and EMEA but expressed confidence in the company's ability to control its destiny through a customer-centric approach [5][12] - The company expects continued EBITDA improvement in North America, building on strong first-half momentum, while also addressing market softness in EMEA [12][24] Other Important Information - The company plans to close the sale of GCF by year-end, pending regulatory approval, and intends to reinvest the proceeds into its Packaging Solutions businesses [13][18] - The company has adjusted its 2025 and 2027 targets due to market softness, now expecting $24 billion in net sales and adjusted EBITDA of $3 billion for 2025 [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Differences in EMEA vs North America Opportunities - Management noted that EMEA does have excess box capacity and that the complexity in Europe differs from North America, where there was significant excess mill capacity [41][42] Question: Volume Growth Assumptions for 2027 Target - The company expects volume growth of 1%-1.5% in North America and 1%-2% in Europe over time, reflecting a soft market outlook [58][59] Question: EBITDA Benefit from Mill Closures - Management indicated that the closure of Savannah would have an effectively neutral EBITDA impact, while Riceboro's closure would provide modest positive benefits [88][92] Question: Free Cash Flow Movement - The decline in free cash flow guidance was primarily due to a slowdown in the market, with an expected $500 million profit loss impacting cash flow [66][68] Question: Drivers of Box Shipments Increase - The increase in box shipments in September and October was attributed to strategic customer engagement and a focus on attractive markets [73][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 40% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 370 basis points [8][10] - Third quarter revenue showed slight sequential improvement, driven by strong price realization and stable volumes, with EBITDA improving by 28% and margin expanding by approximately 300 basis points [11][12] - Free cash flow increased sequentially to $150 million, primarily due to strong growth in operating cash flow, despite $60 million in direct cash costs related to transformation [12][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The packaging solutions business in North America grew EBITDA sequentially by 28%, reflecting the progress made with the 80/20 implementation [9][10] - In EMEA, adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $209 million, with price and mix contributing $13 million of improvement, although volume was lower than expected due to market softness [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American box industry shipments are now expected to decline approximately 1 to 1.5% for the full year, down from an initial expectation of growth [10] - EMEA box volume expectations have also been revised down to approximately 1% from an earlier forecast of 2 to 3% [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformation plan to reinforce its leadership in sustainable packaging solutions, emphasizing cost initiatives and customer experience [4][5] - The strategy includes simplifying the organization by exiting select businesses and markets, with a commitment to exclusively operate as a sustainable packaging business [5][6] - The company is implementing the Lighthouse model to improve operational efficiency and service levels across its North American box system and is beginning to roll it out in EMEA [6][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenging macro conditions in North America and EMEA but expressed confidence in the company's ability to control its destiny through a customer-centric approach [4][10] - The company expects continued EBITDA improvement in North America, building on strong first-half momentum, while also preparing for a challenging environment in EMEA [20][30] - Management adjusted targets for 2025 and 2027 due to market softness, with revised full-year 2025 targets set at $24 billion in net sales and adjusted EBITDA of $3 billion [32] Other Important Information - The company plans to close the sale of Global Cellulose Fibers by year-end, pending regulatory approval, and intends to reinvest proceeds into its Packaging Solutions businesses [14][15] - The company is taking aggressive cost-out actions in response to market challenges, including mill closures and outsourcing IT services [23][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Differences in EMEA vs North America Opportunities - Management noted that EMEA has excess box capacity and a complex above-country structure that requires addressing, while North America had more straightforward opportunities to eliminate excess capacity [38][40] Question: Volume Growth Assumptions for 2027 Target - Management expects volume growth of 1 to 1.5% in North America and 1 to 2% in Europe over time, acknowledging the need to adjust targets due to market conditions [60] Question: EBITDA Benefits from Mill Closures - Management clarified that the closure of Savannah would have a neutral EBITDA impact, as it was primarily serving a low-value export market, while Riceboro's closure would provide modest positive benefits [95][103]

Financial Performance - The company's Q3 2025 sales were $6222 million, compared to $6142 million in Q2 2025 and $3979 million in Q3 2024[23] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $859 million, up from $670 million in Q2 2025 and $366 million in Q3 2024[24] - The Adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 138% in Q3 2025, compared to 109% in Q2 2025 and 92% in Q3 2024[25] - The company reported an Adjusted EBIT loss of $240 million in Q3 2025, compared to an Adjusted EBIT of $239 million in Q2 2025 and $158 million in Q3 2024[26] - Adjusted Operating EPS was $(043) in Q3 2025, compared to $018 in Q2 2025 and $033 in Q3 2024[27] - Free cash flow was $150 million in Q3 2025, compared to $54 million in Q2 2025 and $309 million in Q3 2024[28] Packaging Solutions North America (PS NA) - PS NA YTD Adjusted EBITDA increased from $123 billion in 2024 to $172 billion in 2025, a 40% increase[16] - PS NA YTD Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 370 bps, from 120% in 2024 to 157% in 2025[16] - PS NA Adjusted EBITDA increased from $515 million in Q2 2025 to $655 million in Q3 2025[30] - The company expects PS NA Adjusted EBITDA to be $600 million in Q4 2025[37] Packaging Solutions EMEA (PS EMEA) - PS EMEA Adjusted EBITDA increased from $194 million in Q2 2025 to $209 million in Q3 2025[30] - The company expects PS EMEA Adjusted EBITDA to be $230 million in Q4 2025[44] Strategic Initiatives and Targets - The company is targeting approximately $06 billion in incremental Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 from cost out and commercial actions[49] - The company updated its 2025 net sales target to approximately $240 billion and Adjusted EBITDA target to approximately $30 billion[51] - The company updated its 2027 net sales target to approximately $255 billion and Adjusted EBITDA target to approximately $50 billion[51]