Core Viewpoint - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) is expected to report flat earnings of $0.36 per share for the quarter ended December 2025, with revenues projected at $1.9 billion, reflecting a 1.9% increase from the previous year [3]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is anticipated to be released on January 21, and the stock may rise if actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 8.4% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for Knight-Swift is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.04%, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [12]. - Knight-Swift currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a neutral outlook [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Knight-Swift was expected to earn $0.38 per share but only achieved $0.32, resulting in a surprise of -15.79% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Conclusion - Knight-Swift does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].

Group 1 - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has seen significant activity in the options market, particularly with the Jan 16, 2026 $67.50 Call option exhibiting high implied volatility, indicating potential for a major price movement [1] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) within the Transportation – Truck industry, which is positioned in the bottom 21% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, no analysts have raised their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while two have lowered their estimates, resulting in a decrease of the Zacks Consensus Estimate from 39 cents per share to 38 cents [3] Group 2 - The high implied volatility surrounding Knight-Swift Transportation suggests that options traders may be anticipating a significant price movement, which could indicate a developing trading opportunity [4] - Seasoned options traders often seek out options with high implied volatility to sell premium, aiming to benefit from the decay of the option's value if the underlying stock does not move as much as expected [4]

Core Viewpoint - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is set to release its fourth quarter earnings for 2025 on January 21, 2026, after market close, followed by a conference call to discuss the results [1]. Group 1 - The conference call will take place from 4:30 to 5:30 p.m. EST on the same date, and a real-time webcast will be available on the company's investor website [1]. - An online replay of the webcast will be accessible for at least seven days after the call [1]. - Slides accompanying the call will be posted on the company's website for download [2].

Group 1: Fund Performance - The Aristotle Small Cap Equity Fund delivered a return of 3.16% in Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell 2000 Index, which had a total return of 12.39% [1] - The Russell 2000 Index reached its first all-time high since November 2021, driven by a favorable macroeconomic backdrop [1] Group 2: Company Highlight - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX) is a freight transportation services provider with a one-month return of 19.09% and a 52-week gain of 1.25% [2] - As of December 18, 2025, Knight-Swift's stock closed at $52.60 per share, with a market capitalization of $8.539 billion [2] - The company is expected to benefit from increased freight transportation demand and a subdued supply of transportation providers, leading to potential revenue and earnings growth [3] Group 3: Hedge Fund Interest - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. was held by 44 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, an increase from 43 in the previous quarter [4] - Despite its potential, some analysts believe that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk compared to Knight-Swift [4]

Group 1 - Stifel raised the price target on Knight-Swift (KNX) to $59 from $52 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares [1] - For 2026, the focus for transport stocks is expected to be on supply rationalization and cost-driven self-help [1] - The analyst suggests a conservative positioning in high-quality names that can preserve or expand market share during a mild pullback [1]

Company Overview - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings reported a revenue of $7.5 billion and a net income of $142.2 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] - The company has a dividend yield of 1.2% and experienced a 1-year price change of -9.7% as of December 9, 2025 [4] - Knight-Swift operates a fleet of 18,019 tractors and 67,606 trailers, providing truckload transportation, less-than-truckload (LTL), logistics, and intermodal services across North America [5][8] Recent Insider Activity - Kevin P. Knight, Executive Chairman, sold 35,000 shares indirectly for approximately $1.8 million on December 9, 2025, representing 2.43% of Knight's indirect holdings [1][2][6] - Post-transaction, the company has no direct holdings and 1,405,347 shares in indirect holdings [2][6] - The sale aligns with a consistent reduction pattern in total holdings, with no derivative transactions or option exercises reported [6][10] Market Context - The truckload industry has faced a downturn since the pandemic, leading to overcapacity and declining freight demand, which has negatively impacted freight rates [11][12] - Knight-Swift's operating margin is currently at 3.5% with a gross margin of 11.1%, indicating cost pressures [11] - The stock is trading at 1.2 times trailing 12-month sales and 1.1 times its book value, reflecting a lack of market enthusiasm [12] Strategic Positioning - Knight-Swift is focusing on rightsizing its fleet in response to market conditions, which may improve revenue per tractor unit [11][13] - The company serves a diversified customer base across various industries, positioning it competitively within the industrials sector [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the outlook for the freight transportation industry in 2026 to "attractive," citing the best risk-reward profile since 2020, despite unclear industry prospects [1] Trucking Industry - In a bearish scenario, the trucking industry in 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025, but in a bullish scenario, stock prices could see over a 50% upside [1] - 2026 is anticipated to be a decisive year for autonomous trucks, as companies will seek to expand pilot fleets in preparation for commercial launches in 2027 [1] Rail Industry - The focus for the rail industry in 2026 will be on the merger developments between Union Pacific (UNP.US) and Norfolk Southern (NSC.US), among others [1] - If the fundamentals do not keep pace with the trucking industry during the upcycle, merger enthusiasm may decline; low single-digit percentage growth in volume and rates is expected [1] - Preference continues for Canadian rail companies over U.S. rail companies [1] Logistics/Third-Party Logistics Industry - 2026 may be a transformative year for brokers, as some stocks begin to reflect the "AI concept halo" [1] - The effectiveness and sustainability of technology enhancements will be evaluated, along with how AI-enabled brokers respond to the upcycle and maintain market share against asset-based carriers [1] Package Delivery Industry - 2026 is expected to be a critical year for package delivery companies as major cost/restructuring plans reach completion, providing clearer insights into normalized EPS levels [1] - Structural changes in the e-commerce market may continue, with rural delivery and returns becoming new competitive fronts [1] Stock Recommendations - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the ratings for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.US) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.US) from "market perform" to "overweight" [1] - Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX.US) remains the top-ranked stock in the freight transportation industry for 2026, followed by GXO Logistics (GXO.US) and Ryder (R.US) [1] - Canadian National Railway (CNI.US) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City have entered the top five rankings [1]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting its growth potential [1] - The diversification of investment portfolios has become a trend, with a shift from traditional savings in banks and properties to stock market investments [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 indicates a growing interest in financial products beyond conventional investments [1] Investment Focus - The current focus includes banks, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels, indicating a strategic approach to sector selection [1] - The entry into the US market in 2020 reflects a broader strategy to capitalize on international investment opportunities [1] - The use of platforms like Seeking Alpha for analysis and knowledge sharing demonstrates the importance of research in making informed investment decisions [1] Market Trends - The trend of investing in blue-chip companies has evolved into a more diversified portfolio across various industries and market capitalizations [1] - The shift towards holding stocks for retirement alongside trading for profits illustrates a balanced investment strategy [1] - The comparison of analyses between the US and Philippine markets suggests a comprehensive approach to understanding market dynamics [1]

Core Insights - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. reported a miss on earnings for Q3 2025, with adjusted earnings of 32 cents per share, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents and declining 5.8% year over year [3] - Total revenues for the quarter were $1.92 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.89 billion and showing a year-over-year improvement of 2.7% [3] Financial Performance - Total operating expenses increased by 4.5% year over year to $1.87 billion [4] - Truckload segment revenues were $1.08 billion, down 2.1% year over year, with adjusted segmental operating income falling 15% to $41.22 million [5] - The Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment saw revenues of $340.48 million, up 21.5% year over year, with adjusted segmental operating income increasing 10.1% to $32.05 million [6] - Logistics segment revenues amounted to $140.4 million, down 2.2% year over year, while adjusted operating income rose 1.9% to $8 million [7] - Intermodal revenues totaled $94.08 million, down 8.4% year over year, with a significant decrease in load count [8] Liquidity and Debt - Knight-Swift ended Q3 with cash and cash equivalents of $192.67 million, down from $216.32 million in the previous quarter, while long-term debt decreased to $1.05 billion from $1.39 billion [9] Guidance and Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of 34-40 cents, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at 39 cents [10] - Truckload segment revenues are anticipated to remain stable, with operating margins expected to improve by 250-350 basis points sequentially [10] - LTL segment revenues are projected to grow between 10% and 15% year over year in Q4 2025 [11] - Net cash capital expenditures for 2025 are now expected to be between $475 million and $525 million, down from the previous guidance of $525 million to $575 million [13] Market Sentiment - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 10.98% [14] - Knight-Swift currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [16]

Core Insights - Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX) is experiencing significant pressure from rising expenses and tariff-related issues, making it less appealing for investors [1][8] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KNX's earnings for the December quarter has been revised downward by 20.8% over the past 60 days, and for 2026, the estimate has been cut by 11.3% [2] - KNX's share price has decreased by 21.1% year-to-date, compared to a 20.3% decline in the Transportation - Truck industry [3] Industry Ranking - KNX holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), placing it in the bottom 6% of Zacks Industries, which indicates a bearish outlook [5] - The Transportation industry has a Zacks Industry Rank of 227 out of 243, reflecting overall weakness in the sector [5] Operational Challenges - The company is facing increased operating expenses, which rose by 4.5% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [6] - Labor costs, which account for 40% of total operating costs, increased by 4% year-over-year, while fuel expenses surged by 4% to $221.8 million [7] Market Environment - KNX is navigating a volatile macro environment characterized by economic uncertainty, shifting tariff regulations, and geopolitical tensions, which are impacting investment decisions and operational risks [9]