Financial Performance - Fourth quarter 2025 net income was $71.4 million, a decrease of 20% compared to $88.7 million in Q4 2024, while full year net income totaled $337.3 million, down 15% from $397.3 million in 2024[2][3][4] - Adjusted EBITDAX for Q4 2025 was $215.7 million, down 9% from $235.8 million in Q4 2024, while full year adjusted EBITDAX was $906.1 million, a 5% decrease from $953.3 million in 2024[2][3][4] - For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Magnolia reported total revenues of $317.6 million, a slight decrease from $326.6 million in the same quarter of 2024[27] - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $337,279, a decrease of 15.1% from $397,330 in 2024[29] - Adjusted net income for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $335,672,000, down from $400,944,000 in 2024, reflecting a decline of about 16.3%[41] Production and Operations - Average daily production for Q4 2025 reached 103.8 Mboe/d, an 11% increase from 93.1 Mboe/d in Q4 2024, and full year production averaged 99.8 Mboe/d, also reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth[2][3][4] - Oil production for the quarter was 3,747 MBbls, up from 3,572 MBbls in the same quarter of 2024, representing a growth of 4.9%[25] - Average daily oil production increased to 40,730 Bbls/d from 38,821 Bbls/d, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.7%[25] - Natural gas production rose to 18,089 MMcf for the quarter, compared to 15,371 MMcf in the same quarter of 2024, marking a 17.7% increase[25] - Magnolia's average daily production for the year ended December 31, 2025, was 99,793 boe/d, an increase from 89,709 boe/d in 2024, representing a growth of 11.7%[25] Costs and Expenditures - Capital expenditures for drilling and completions in Q4 2025 were $116.5 million, an 11% decrease from $131.6 million in Q4 2024, and full year capital expenditures totaled $460.7 million, down 3% from $477.0 million in 2024[2][3][4] - Total operating costs and expenses for the quarter were $223.5 million, up from $202.5 million in the same quarter of 2024, an increase of 10.3%[27] - Total costs incurred for exploration and development activities in 2025 were $556,759, a decrease from $661,116 in 2024[34] - Total adjusted cash operating costs per boe for the year ended December 31, 2025, were $11.10, compared to $11.08 in 2024, indicating a slight increase of about 1.8%[46] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Magnolia returned 75% of free cash flow generated in 2025 to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, totaling $205.5 million in share repurchases and $113.1 million in dividends[7][10][19] - Free cash flow for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $426,599,000, slightly down from $430,232,000 in 2024, showing a decrease of approximately 0.6%[49] - A cash dividend of $0.165 per share was declared, representing a 10% increase from the previous rate, marking the fifth consecutive annual increase in dividends[10][19] Reserves and Efficiency - The company achieved a reserve replacement ratio of 137% for 2025, adding 49.8 MMboe of proved developed reserves, with organic proved developed finding and development costs at $9.25 per boe[10][15] - Proved developed reserves increased by 17.3 MMboe to 166.6 MMboe at the end of 2025, compared to 149.3 MMboe at the end of 2024[34] - Organic proved developed F&D cost per boe decreased to $9.25 in 2025 from $10.77 in 2024, indicating improved cost efficiency[34] - Magnolia's return on capital employed was 18% in 2025, reflecting strong operational efficiency and capital discipline[8][9] - The return on average capital employed (ROCE) for the year ended December 31, 2025, was 18.5%, down from 22.1% in 2024, indicating a decrease of about 16.3%[52] Balance Sheet and Assets - Magnolia's cash balance increased to $266.8 million at year-end 2025, up from $260.0 million at the end of 2024, while maintaining an undrawn $450 million revolving credit facility[4][10] - Total assets increased to $2,903,092 as of December 31, 2025, compared to $2,820,835 in 2024, representing a growth of 2.9%[32] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $266,785, slightly up from $260,049 at the end of 2024[32] Market Realization - The average sales price for oil decreased to $57.54 per Bbl from $69.01 per Bbl in the same quarter of 2024, a decline of 16.5%[25] - The company reported a realization of 97% of WTI for oil and 82% of Henry Hub for natural gas during the quarter[25] - Revenue per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, was $33.26, a decrease from $38.13 in the same quarter of 2024, indicating a decline of approximately 21.5%[46]

Core Viewpoint - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 5, with earnings estimated at 36 cents per share and revenues at $312.3 million [1][7]. Group 1: Recent Performance - In the last reported quarter, MGY achieved a net profit of 41 cents per share, aligning with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by increased production volumes [2]. - Total revenues for the last quarter were $324.9 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $322 million [2]. - MGY has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.45% [3]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Trends - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has remained unchanged, reflecting a 26.53% year-over-year decrease [3]. - Revenue estimates for the fourth quarter indicate a decline of 4.38% compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 3: Operational Factors - MGY generates revenues by acquiring land or leases with oil and natural gas reserves, primarily in South Texas, focusing on areas like the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk [4]. - The company’s total operating expenses are projected to reach $217.6 million in the fourth quarter, a 7.5% increase from the previous quarter [5]. - General and administrative expenses are expected to rise to $24.2 million, a 14.1% increase year-over-year, while gathering, transportation, and processing expenses are projected to reach $18 million, a 47.6% increase from the prior year [6]. Group 4: Production and Pricing Outlook - MGY's fourth-quarter production volumes are anticipated to rise, supported by higher realized prices for natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues, with the consensus outlook indicating a challenging earnings picture for the company [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 26.5% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $313.46 million, which is a 4% decline from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 13.75% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.73% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP is generally a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) [10]. - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, the company met the consensus EPS estimate of $0.41 per share, resulting in no surprise [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Conclusion - The company does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and rankings, suggesting that investors should consider other factors before making investment decisions [17].

Core Viewpoint - Z4 Energy Research is recognized for its expertise in the energy sector, ranking in the top 2% of financial bloggers and top 5% of overall experts as of January 2021 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Z4 Energy Research has been operational since 2006, providing insights on oil, natural gas, wind, solar, fuel cells, and other renewable energy sources [1] - The company posts weekly slide shows on oil and natural gas inventory reports and daily analyses on individual companies and energy segments [1] Group 2: Services Offered - Z4 Energy Research offers a platform for in-depth discussions and answers to energy-related questions, available essentially 24/7 [1] - The site features a searchable database of content dating back to 2006, organized by ticker and topic, allowing users to access historical trading information [1] Group 3: Engagement and Communication - The company shares its trading history and insights on buying and selling activities through its site and email communications, although it does not provide direct investment advice [1] - Free content is also made available on platforms like Seeking Alpha, which is derived from previously developed analyses on their own site [1]

Core Viewpoint - Z4 Energy Research is recognized for its expertise in the energy sector, ranking in the top 2% of financial bloggers and top 5% of overall experts as of January 2021 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Z4 Energy Research has been operational since 2006, providing insights on oil, natural gas, wind, solar, fuel cells, and other renewable energy sources [1] - The company posts weekly slide shows on oil and natural gas inventory reports and daily analyses on individual companies and energy segments [1] Group 2: Services Offered - Z4 Energy Research offers a platform for in-depth discussions and answers to energy-related questions, available essentially 24/7 [1] - The site features a searchable database of content dating back to 2006, organized by ticker and topic, allowing users to access historical trading information [1] Group 3: Engagement and Communication - The company shares its trading history and insights on buying and selling activities through its site and email communications, although it does not provide direct investment advice [1] - Free pieces are published on Seeking Alpha, which have been previously analyzed and discussed on the company's own platform [1]

Group 1 - The article promotes a free two-week trial for the investment group Distressed Value Investing, which offers exclusive research and access to a portfolio of over 1,000 reports on more than 100 companies [1] - Aaron Chow, known as Elephant Analytics, has over 15 years of analytical experience and is recognized as a top-rated analyst on TipRanks, with a background in mobile gaming and a focus on value and distressed investment opportunities, particularly in the energy sector [2] - The investment group emphasizes both value opportunities and distressed plays, indicating a strategic focus on sectors that may offer significant returns [2] Group 2 - The article includes a disclosure stating that the author has no current stock or derivative positions in the companies mentioned but may initiate a long position in MGY within the next 72 hours [2] - It is noted that past performance is not indicative of future results, and no specific investment recommendations are provided, highlighting the independent nature of the analysis [3]

Financial Performance - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, Magnolia reported net income of $75.5 million, or $0.40 per diluted common share, compared to $256.5 million, or $1.36 per diluted common share for the same period in 2024[115]. - Magnolia's total revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $324.9 million, compared to $333.1 million for the same period in 2024[123]. - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $670.2 million, a decrease from $698.2 million for the same period in 2024[143]. - Total capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $350.5 million, slightly lower than $351.9 million for the same period in 2024[145]. Revenue Breakdown - Oil revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $230.5 million, a decrease of $35.2 million from $265.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to a 14% decrease in average prices[123]. - Natural gas revenues increased by $21.0 million to $43.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, driven by a 63% increase in average prices and a 20% increase in production[124]. - NGL revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $51.2 million, up $6.0 million from the previous year, supported by a 16% increase in production[125]. Production and Operations - Total production for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was 100.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase from 90.7 thousand boe/d in the same period of 2024[114]. - The company aims for steady organic production growth and significant free cash flow after capital expenditures, prioritizing reinvestment in its business and returning capital to shareholders[111]. Expenses - Total operating expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $223.5 million, an increase of 9.3% compared to $204.1 million for the same period in 2024[127]. - Gathering, transportation, and processing (GTP) costs for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $17.7 million, or $0.64 per boe, higher than the same period in 2024[129]. - Taxes other than income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, increased by $2.1 million to $20.4 million compared to the same period in 2024[130]. - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $110.6 million, an increase of $3.3 million compared to the same period in 2024[131]. - General and administrative expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $24.2 million, an increase of $3.0 million compared to the same period in 2024[132]. - Interest expense, net, for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $5.4 million, an increase of $1.5 million compared to the same period in 2024[133]. Shareholder Returns - The company declared cash dividends totaling $85.3 million to holders of its Class A Common Stock during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[117]. - The Company declared and paid cash dividends totaling $85.3 million to holders of its Class A Common Stock during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, an increase from $72.5 million in 2024[148]. - As of September 30, 2025, Magnolia had repurchased 44.8 million shares of Class A Common Stock at a cost of $859.9 million, with 5.2 million shares remaining under its repurchase authorization[118]. - During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the Company repurchased 6.5 million shares for a total cost of approximately $152.1 million, compared to 5.3 million shares for $127.0 million in the same period of 2024[146]. Liquidity and Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, the company had $730.5 million of liquidity, comprised of $450.0 million of borrowing capacity under the RBL Facility and $280.5 million of cash and cash equivalents[139]. - The Company had no borrowings outstanding under the RBL Facility as of September 30, 2025[149]. Market Risks - The Company is subject to market risk exposure related to changes in interest rates and commodity prices, which are expected to remain volatile[150]. - A $1.00 per barrel increase in the weighted average oil price would increase the Company's revenues by approximately $14.4 million on an annualized basis[150]. - A $0.10 per Mcf increase in the weighted average natural gas price would increase the Company's revenues by approximately $6.8 million on an annualized basis[150]. Taxation - Current income tax expense for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $(32.3) million, a decrease of $31.8 million compared to the same period in 2024[136].

Core Insights - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation reported third-quarter 2025 net earnings of $0.41 per share, matching analyst estimates but down from $0.52 last year due to higher operating expenses offsetting gains from increased output [1] - Total revenue reached $324.9 million, slightly above expectations, supported by stronger natural gas and NGL sales, although overall revenue declined 2.5% year over year due to weaker oil prices [1] Revenue Breakdown - Oil revenue decreased by 13% to $230.5 million, while natural gas revenue nearly doubled to $43.2 million, and NGL revenue rose to $51.2 million [2] - Production averaged 100,507 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), up 10.8% from the prior year, exceeding consensus forecasts [2] Pricing and Sales - The average oil price realized was $63.55 per barrel, down 14% year over year but ahead of forecasts [3] - Gas prices averaged $2.46 per Mcf, while NGLs fetched $18.98 per barrel, with average sales prices across all products at $35.14 per boe, slightly below last year's level [3] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Magnolia generated $247 million in operating cash flow and $134 million in free cash flow, returning $80.3 million—or 60% of free cash flow—to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases [4] - The company bought back 2.15 million shares for $51.4 million and declared a $0.15 dividend per share, payable December 1 [4] Financial Position - With a cash balance of $280 million and long-term debt of $393 million (16% debt-to-capital ratio), Magnolia remains financially strong [5] - The company spent $118 million in capex during the quarter and expects full-year spending near the midpoint of its $430–470 million range [5] Future Outlook - For Q4, Magnolia anticipates record production near 101,000 boe/d and continued cost reductions, targeting lease operating expenses around $5.20 per boe [6] - The company remains unhedged, operating two drilling rigs and one completion crew, with 75–80% of 2025 activity centered on Giddings Field, its 240,000-acre core [6]

Core Insights - Magnolia achieved a record quarterly total production rate of 100,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q3 2025, reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth [1][14][19] - The company emphasizes a disciplined capital allocation strategy aimed at generating consistent and sustainable free cash flow, despite recent declines in product prices [2][3] - Magnolia plans to maintain a capital spending limit of 55% of adjusted EBITDAX, ensuring financial flexibility and operational efficiency [10][12][77] Production and Financial Performance - Total production growth for 2025 is expected to be approximately 10%, exceeding initial guidance of 5% to 7% [5][18] - Adjusted EBITDAX for Q3 was $219 million, with operating income margins at 31% [6][13] - Free cash flow generated in Q3 was $134 million, with 60% returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends [7][14] Capital Management and Shareholder Returns - The company ended Q3 with a cash balance of $280 million, the highest level of the year, and plans to allocate approximately $110 million in capital spending for Q4 [8][17] - Magnolia has a consistent share repurchase program, having repurchased over 79.4 million shares since its inception, leading to a 26% reduction in weighted average diluted shares outstanding [15][16] - The quarterly dividend has increased by 15% to $0.15 per share, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [16][17] Operational Efficiency and Future Outlook - Magnolia's operational efficiencies have led to reduced lease operating expenses and improved production efficiencies, particularly in water handling and fluid management [8][9][62] - The company plans to operate two drilling rigs and one completion crew in 2026, with a focus on appraisal activities in Giddings and Karnes areas [11][12] - Future production growth is anticipated to be mid-single-digit, with capital spending levels similar to 2025, allowing for significant free cash flow generation [11][19] Market Position and Strategic Initiatives - Magnolia continues to explore bolt-on acquisitions to enhance its asset base, leveraging its subsurface knowledge and operational expertise [3][26] - The company remains unhedged on all oil and natural gas production, with price differentials expected to be approximately $3 per barrel discount to Magellan East Houston [19][20] - Magnolia's strong balance sheet, with $730 million in total liquidity, positions it well to navigate a volatile pricing environment [17][18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Magnolia achieved adjusted net income of $78 million or $0.41 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2025, with adjusted EBITDAX of $219 million and operating income margins of 31% [14][19] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $134 million, with a capital reinvestment rate limited to 54% of adjusted EBITDAX [9][14] - The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of $280 million, the highest level of the year, and total liquidity of approximately $730 million [10][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total production reached a record of 100.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing year-over-year growth of 11% [6][14] - Oil production at Giddings grew by nearly 5% compared to the prior year, contributing to an expected full-year production growth of approximately 10% [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue per BOE declined approximately 12% year over year due to lower oil prices, partially offset by an increase in natural gas prices [19] - Price differentials are anticipated to be approximately a $3 per barrel discount to Magellan East Houston, with Magnolia remaining unhedged on all oil and natural gas production [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Magnolia's strategy focuses on generating consistent and sustainable free cash flow through disciplined capital allocation and profitability, with no plans to increase activity at current product prices [5][12] - The company aims to enhance its asset base through bolt-on acquisitions and continues to operate with a disciplined capital spending philosophy [5][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt to a volatile product price environment, emphasizing a commitment to its business model and operational flexibility [12][20] - The company plans to maintain capital spending at approximately 55% of adjusted EBITDAX for 2026, with expectations for mid-single-digit total production growth [11][20] Other Important Information - Magnolia returned 60% of its free cash flow to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, with a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share announced earlier this year [9][17] - The company has repurchased 79.4 million shares since the program began, reducing the weighted average diluted share count by approximately 26% [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can operational efficiencies lead to accelerated production? - Management indicated that while they could increase production, they prefer to stay true to their business model, focusing on maximizing free cash flow rather than rushing production [25][26] Question: Is there still potential for strategic bolt-on acquisitions? - Management confirmed there is still a fair amount of white space for acquisitions, but any potential deals must align with Magnolia's business model and improve the company [29][30] Question: What is the outlook for Karnes and appraisal activities? - Management remains optimistic about Karnes, stating that good rock has a long life and they will continue to explore appraisal opportunities [40][41] Question: How will the appraisal program be managed in a weak oil price environment? - Management expressed reluctance to cut the appraisal program significantly, emphasizing its importance for resource expansion and flexibility in response to market conditions [46][49] Question: How does Magnolia view service pricing and its alignment with oil prices? - Management noted that service pricing has softened but remains stable, with some upward pressure from steel tariffs offset by overall market conditions [99][100] Question: What is the plan for deferred completions and DUCs in 2026? - Management clarified that they do not typically carry planned DUCs, and the focus will be on timing rather than maintaining a specific number of DUCs [102][103]