Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted net income of $78 million with an operating income margin of 31%[11] - Adjusted EBITDAX was $219 million, with a capital reinvestment rate of 54%[11] - Free cash flow (FCF) reached $134 million, and the annualized Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) was 17%[11] - Total production reached a company record of 1005 Mboe/d, exceeding earlier guidance, with oil production at 394 Mbbls/d[11] - The company returned approximately $80 million to shareholders, including $51 million in share repurchases (215 million shares) and $29 million in dividends[11] Production and Growth - Giddings YoY total production growth was 15%, and oil production growth was 5% YoY[11] - Full-year 2025 production growth guidance is approximately 10%, above the original 5% - 7% guidance, with approximately 5% lower D&C capital[11] Balance Sheet and Capital Structure - The company maintained a strong balance sheet with $280 million in cash and only $120 million of net debt[11] - The company has liquidity of $730 million, including a fully undrawn credit facility[30] Sustainability - The company achieved a 21% reduction in gross Scope 1 greenhouse gas intensity rate since 2020, despite production growth[41] - The company achieved a 68% reduction in gas flared as a percent of total production since 2020[42]

Core Insights - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp reported $324.94 million in revenue for Q3 2025, a year-over-year decline of 2.5%, with an EPS of $0.41 compared to $0.52 a year ago, aligning with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $322.2 million, resulting in a surprise of +0.85% [1] Financial Performance - The company’s average daily production was 100,507 BOE/D, exceeding the analyst estimate of 99,182 BOE/D [4] - Natural gas production averaged 190,384 Mcf/D, surpassing the estimate of 187,160.70 Mcf/D [4] - Oil production averaged 39,430 BBL/D, slightly below the estimate of 40,162.36 BBL/D [4] - Natural gas liquids production averaged 29,347 BBL/D, exceeding the estimate of 27,789.82 BBL/D [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from natural gas was $43.17 million, above the estimate of $42.88 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +94.4% [4] - Revenue from natural gas liquids was $51.24 million, compared to the estimate of $48.98 million, showing a year-over-year change of +13.2% [4] - Revenue from oil was $230.53 million, slightly above the estimate of $227.87 million, but representing a year-over-year decline of -13.2% [4] Stock Performance - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp shares returned -4.7% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +3.8% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp reported quarterly earnings of $0.41 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but down from $0.52 per share a year ago [1] - The company generated revenues of $324.94 million for the quarter ended September 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.85%, but lower than the $333.14 million reported in the same quarter last year [2] - The stock has underperformed the market, losing approximately 2.7% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's gain of 17.2% [3] Earnings Performance - Over the last four quarters, Magnolia Oil & Gas has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [1] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.41, with expected revenues of $323.9 million, and for the current fiscal year, the consensus EPS is $1.77 on revenues of $1.32 billion [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently ranked in the bottom 17% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stocks in this sector [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact investor sentiment and stock performance [5]

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Financial Performance - Magnolia reported a net income of $78.2 million for Q3 2025, a decrease of 26% compared to $105.9 million in Q3 2024[3]. - Adjusted EBITDAX for Q3 2025 was $218.8 million, down 10% from $243.6 million in the same quarter last year[4]. - For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, total revenues were $324,935,000, a slight decrease of 1% compared to $333,135,000 for the same quarter in 2024[22]. - Operating income for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $101,464,000, a decrease of 21.5% from $129,012,000 in the same quarter of 2024[22]. - Net income attributable to Class A common stock for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $75,456,000, down 24.4% from $99,784,000 in the same quarter of 2024[22]. - Net income for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $78,233 thousand, a decrease of 26.3% compared to $105,912 thousand for the same quarter in 2024[30]. - Adjusted EBITDAX for the quarter was $218,818 thousand, down 10.2% from $243,572 thousand in the prior year[30]. - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $77,824 thousand, a decline of 22.3% from $100,256 thousand in the same quarter of 2024[33]. Production and Operations - Average daily production increased by 11% year-over-year to 100.5 Mboe/d, setting a new quarterly record[4]. - The company expects total production growth of approximately 10% for the full year 2025, up from earlier guidance of 5-7%[10]. - Average daily production of oil increased to 39,430 Bbls/d for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, compared to 38,902 Bbls/d in the same quarter of 2024, representing a growth of 1.4%[22]. - Natural gas production rose significantly to 17,515 MMcf for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, up 19.1% from 14,644 MMcf in the same quarter of 2024[22]. - Magnolia plans to maintain two drilling rigs and one completion crew through the remainder of 2025, focusing on multi-well development pads in the Giddings area[9]. Financial Metrics and Cash Flow - Free cash flow generated in Q3 2025 was $133.9 million, with operating income margins at 31%[4]. - Magnolia returned $80.3 million, or 60% of free cash flow, to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in Q3 2025[4]. - Cash flows from operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $670,243,000, a decrease of 4.0% from $698,223,000 in the same period of 2024[24]. - The company reported a net cash used in investing activities of $400,643,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $517,014,000 in the same period of 2024[24]. - Free cash flow for the quarter was $133,929 thousand, an increase of 6.9% from $126,117 thousand in Q3 2024[40]. Expenses and Costs - Total operating expenses increased to $223,471,000 for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, compared to $204,123,000 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a rise of 9.5%[22]. - The company anticipates a slight decline in lease operating expenses (LOE) to approximately $5.20 per boe in Q4 2025, with full-year LOE expected to be at least 5% lower than 2024 levels[11]. - Total adjusted cash operating costs per boe rose to $11.36, up from $10.83 in the same quarter last year[37]. - Operating income margin decreased to 10.98%, down from 15.45% in Q3 2024[37]. Asset and Revenue Analysis - The average sales price of oil per Bbl decreased to $63.55 for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, down 14.3% from $74.23 in the same quarter of 2024[22]. - Revenue per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) decreased to $35.14 in Q3 2025, down 12.0% from $39.92 in Q3 2024[37]. - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $280,485 thousand as of September 30, 2025, compared to $260,049 thousand at December 31, 2024, reflecting a growth of 8.3%[26]. - Total assets increased to $2,923,584 thousand as of September 30, 2025, up from $2,820,835 thousand at December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 3.65%[26]. Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for drilling and completions in Q3 2025 were $118.4 million, representing 54% of adjusted EBITDAX[4]. - Fourth quarter 2025 D&C capital spending is estimated at $110 million, bringing total capital spending for the year to approximately $450 million[10].

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Core Viewpoint - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 29, with earnings estimated at 41 cents per share and revenues at $319.2 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline in revenues and earnings [1][8]. Group 1: Recent Performance - In the last reported quarter, MGY achieved a net profit of 43 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents, driven by increased production volumes and strong well productivity in the Giddings asset [2]. - Total revenues for the last quarter were $319 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $314 million, with MGY delivering an average surprise of 6.5% over the last four quarters [2]. Group 2: Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has increased by 2.5% in the past week, although it indicates a 21.2% decrease year-over-year [3]. - Revenue estimates for the third quarter show a decline of 4.2% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 3: Operational Insights - MGY generates revenues by acquiring land or leases with oil and natural gas reserves, primarily in South Texas, focusing on areas like the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk [4]. - The company is expected to see a decrease in total revenues in the upcoming quarter, with a projected revenue drop from $333.1 million in the year-ago quarter [5]. - Despite an anticipated increase in total production volumes, the average realized price is expected to decline, which may impact profitability [5]. Group 4: Cost and Production Outlook - Gathering, transportation, and processing expenses are projected to reach $16.2 million in the third quarter, a 51.4% increase from $10.7 million in the same quarter last year [5]. - Positive factors include an expected boost in production volumes and an increase in the average realized price of natural gas liquids and natural gas, which may help offset higher operating costs [6][8]. Group 5: Earnings Prediction - The Zacks model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for MGY this season, as the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 is not present [7]. - MGY's Earnings ESP stands at +2.06%, indicating a slight positive outlook, but the overall ranking is 4 (Sell) [9].

Core Viewpoint - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended September 2025, with the consensus outlook being crucial for assessing the company's earnings picture [1] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show quarterly earnings of $0.41 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 21.2% [3] - Revenues are projected to be $319.2 million, which is a decline of 4.2% compared to the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 4.64% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +2.06% [12] Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP reading suggests a potential earnings beat, especially when combined with a strong Zacks Rank [10] - However, the current Zacks Rank for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat despite the positive Earnings ESP [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, the company exceeded the expected earnings of $0.40 per share by delivering $0.43, resulting in a surprise of +7.50% [13] - Over the past four quarters, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates each time [14] Market Reaction Considerations - An earnings beat or miss may not solely dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [15] - It is advisable for investors to consider the Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank before the quarterly release to enhance the likelihood of success [16]

Core Insights - Magnolia Oil & Gas (NYSE: MGY) is positioned to perform well in a low oil price environment despite being unhedged, due to its minimal leverage and the maturity of its unsecured notes not occurring until December 2032 [1]. Company Overview - Magnolia Oil & Gas operates with a low level of financial risk, indicated by its minimal leverage [1]. - The company has unsecured notes that are not due until December 2032, providing a stable financial outlook in the near term [1]. Analyst Background - Aaron Chow, known as Elephant Analytics, has over 15 years of analytical experience and is recognized as a top-rated analyst on TipRanks [2]. - Chow co-founded a mobile gaming company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment and has significant experience in designing economic models for mobile applications [2]. - The investing group Distressed Value Investing, founded by Chow, focuses on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector [2].

Core Insights - Magnolia Oil & Gas (NYSE: MGY) is positioned to perform well in a low oil price environment despite being unhedged, due to its minimal leverage and the maturity of its unsecured notes not occurring until December 2032 [1]. Company Overview - Magnolia Oil & Gas has a low level of leverage, which enhances its resilience in fluctuating market conditions [1]. - The company’s unsecured notes are set to mature in December 2032, providing a long-term buffer against immediate financial pressures [1]. Analyst Background - Aaron Chow, known as Elephant Analytics, has over 15 years of analytical experience and is recognized as a top-rated analyst on TipRanks [2]. - Chow co-founded a mobile gaming company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment, showcasing his experience in both analytical and modeling skills [2]. - The investing group Distressed Value Investing, founded by Chow, focuses on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector [2].