Middleby Corporation has experienced a slight decline in stock value over the past month but shows a significant growth potential of 24.83%.The company boasts a strong Piotroski Score of 8, indicating robust financial health and stability.With a target price set at $168.33, Middleby presents an attractive investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on its potential rebound.Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD) is a leading company in the foodservice equipment industry. It designs, manufactures, and ...

Company Overview - Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD) is a leading manufacturer of commercial kitchen equipment, residential appliances, and food processing systems, operating globally and serving diverse customers in the foodservice, food processing, and residential kitchen markets [1] Stock Performance - Over the past 30 days, Middleby has seen a modest gain of 1.49%, indicating positive momentum, but experienced a slight decline of 1.65% in the last 10 days, which may present a buying opportunity for investors [2] Growth Potential - Middleby shows a promising growth potential of 25.07%, suggesting significant room for stock price appreciation, making it attractive for growth-focused investors [3][5] - The company boasts a Piotroski Score of 8, reflecting solid financial health and efficient operations [3][5] Target Price - The target price for Middleby is set at $168.33, indicating potential upside from the current price and aligning with the stock's growth potential, thus presenting a favorable risk-reward profile for investors [4][5] - The stock has recently touched a local minimum, suggesting a possible reversal and upward movement [4]

David Gardner: Ten years ago, September 2nd, 2015, we launched our very first five stock sampler, 5 Stocks for the Next 5 Years. It was a Motley mix by design. A Latin American e-commerce upstart, a rural convenience chain that secretly sells rivers of pizza, a video game powerhouse, a cybersecurity fighter, and a kitchen tech roll up. Today, we fire up the time machine 10 years later to see what actually happened through recessions, pandemics, acquisitions, and all the surprises a decade can deliver. We'll ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the investment perspective on The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ: MIDD), emphasizing a hold rating due to a lack of improvements in the CF segment fundamentals [1] - The author advocates for a fundamentals-based approach to value investing, highlighting the importance of long-term durability and robust balance sheets over low multiple stocks [1] - It is noted that while investing in successful companies carries risks, the potential for significant development can make immediate price less critical [1]

Core Insights - The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) reported adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share for Q2 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.20, although the earnings decreased by 1.7% year over year due to lower sales [1] - Net sales reached $977.9 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $975 million, but showed a decline of 1.4% year over year, with organic sales down by 5.4% [1][10] - The company is on track to spin off its food processing business into a standalone public company by the first half of 2026, aiming to enhance strategic focus and capital optimization for both entities [11][12] Financial Performance - The Commercial Foodservice Equipment Group segment, accounting for 59.4% of net sales, reported sales of $580.6 million, down 4.8% year over year, with organic sales decreasing by 5.5% [2] - The Residential Kitchen Equipment Group segment, representing 18.5% of total sales, saw a decline to $181.1 million, down 6.1% year over year, with organic sales down by 7.8% [3] - The Food Processing Equipment Group segment, which makes up 22.1% of total sales, experienced a 14.4% increase in sales to $216.2 million, driven by acquisitions, despite a 2.9% decline in organic sales [4] Margin and Cost Analysis - Cost of sales decreased by 0.9% year over year to $606.6 million, while gross profit fell by 2.2% to $371.3 million, resulting in a gross margin of 38%, down 30 basis points from the previous year [5] - Selling, general and administrative expenses rose by 7.5% year over year to $213.6 million, leading to an operating income decrease of 11.6% to $155.4 million and an operating margin decline of 180 basis points to 15.9% [5] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - As of the end of Q2 2025, Middleby had cash and cash equivalents of $511.5 million, down from $689.5 million at the end of December 2024, with long-term debt slightly reduced to $2.33 billion [7] - In the first half of 2025, net cash generated from operating activities was $263.1 million, compared to $290.4 million in the same period last year, while capital expenditure increased to $54.7 million from $24.7 million [8] Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, Middleby expects total sales to be between $950 million and $975 million, with segment-specific projections for Commercial Foodservice, Residential Kitchen, and Food Processing [13] - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA in the range of $185 million to $195 million and adjusted earnings per share between $2.04 and $2.19 [14] - For the full year 2025, total sales are projected to be between $3.81 billion and $3.87 billion, with adjusted EBITDA forecasted at $770 million to $800 million and adjusted earnings per share expected to be between $8.65 and $9.05 [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2, the company reported revenues of over $580 million with a strong EBITDA margin of 27% [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $200 million, and adjusted EPS was $2.35 [14] - Free cash flow for Q2 was $101 million, with a leverage ratio of 2.3 times [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial Foodservice revenues were below prior year levels but showed sequential growth, driven by demand for leading technologies [12] - Residential segment revenues grew sequentially to over $181 million, with an EBITDA margin exceeding 10% [13] - Food Processing revenues exceeded $216 million in Q2, with an EBITDA margin over 21% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced growth in the indoor appliance markets in the US and UK, while facing challenges in the outdoor segment due to tariff pressures [13][9] - The snack category within Food Processing is growing rapidly, indicating a large market opportunity ahead [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has made strategic investments over the past three years to enhance innovation, go-to-market capabilities, and operational excellence [3] - Focus on expanding into new market adjacencies, particularly in ice and beverage categories, which are seen as transformational growth opportunities [5][6] - The company plans to continue share repurchases while maintaining financial flexibility for strategic growth investments [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's trajectory despite current economic challenges, emphasizing a strong foundation for long-term growth [3] - The outlook for Q3 anticipates a slight step back in revenues compared to Q2, with expectations for Q4 to be the strongest of the year [20] - Management noted that the commercial foodservice segment is under pressure but remains optimistic about future recovery [92] Other Important Information - The company expects to complete a food processing spinoff in 2026, which is anticipated to operate efficiently and independently [23] - The company has a robust pipeline for M&A activities, particularly in the food processing segment [61] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on the EBITDA guidance by segment? - Management indicated that margins will likely decrease slightly in Q3 due to revenue stepping down, but will improve in Q4 as revenues increase [31] Question: What is the current run rate for grill revenues and how are tariffs impacting this segment? - Grill revenues are in the $100 to $150 million range, but tariffs have caused channel partners to reduce inventory levels significantly [33][36] Question: What is the outlook for large QSR customers in the second half? - Management noted that traffic through QSRs has been down, leading to delays in new store openings and impacting replacement orders [44] Question: How is the tariff impact distributed across segments? - Approximately 60-65% of the tariff impact is felt in the commercial segment, with residential at 20-25% and food processing at 10-15% [55] Question: What are the expectations for sustainable growth in the commercial foodservice segment? - Management believes that the chains will eventually recover, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from this recovery [95] Question: How are new products introduced at NAFEM performing? - New products are gaining traction in the market, with expectations for significant revenue growth in 2026 and beyond [102]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q2 revenue of over $580 million with a strong EBITDA margin of 27% [12] - Total company adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $200 million, and adjusted EPS was $2.35 [14] - Free cash flow for Q2 was $101 million, with a leverage ratio of 2.3 times [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial Foodservice revenues were below prior year levels but showed sequential growth, driven by demand for leading technologies [12][14] - Residential segment revenues grew sequentially to over $181 million, with an EBITDA margin exceeding 10% [12] - Food Processing revenues exceeded $216 million in Q2, with an EBITDA margin of over 21% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced reduced demand from large chain customers in the Commercial Foodservice segment due to lower traffic and cost pressures [4][12] - The residential outdoor segment faced significant challenges from tariff-related pressures, leading to reduced inventories by channel partners [9] - The food processing segment showed improvement in sales and orders, particularly in the protein and bakery segments [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term growth through strategic investments in innovation, market capabilities, and operational excellence [3][5] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding into new market adjacencies, particularly in the ice and beverage categories [5][6] - The company plans to continue share repurchases while maintaining financial flexibility for strategic growth investments [18][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's trajectory despite current economic challenges, citing a fundamentally stronger business than ever before [3][5] - The outlook for Q3 includes expected total revenue of $950 to $975 million, with a stronger Q4 anticipated [20][22] - Management noted that market conditions for food processing are modestly improving, while residential market conditions are stable [20] Other Important Information - The company plans to complete a food processing spin-off in 2026, with activities on track for a successful transaction [23][24] - The company has repurchased over 2.2 million shares for nearly $323 million in Q2, with continued buybacks in July [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on the EBITDA guidance by segment? - Management indicated that margins will likely decrease in Q3 due to a slight revenue step down, but expect a recovery in Q4 [32] Question: What is the current run rate for grill revenues and margin performance? - The grill business is operating in the $100 to $150 million range, but tariffs have impacted growth [34] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on different business segments? - Approximately 60-65% of the tariff impact is from the commercial segment, 20-25% from residential, and 10-15% from food processing [57][58] Question: What is the outlook for large QSR customers in the second half? - Management noted that traffic has been down significantly, affecting new store development and replacement orders [46][48] Question: How is the company addressing the tariff impacts? - The company is focusing on supply chain improvements and operational initiatives to mitigate tariff impacts [49][50] Question: What is the capital allocation strategy moving forward? - The company will continue with share buybacks while evaluating M&A opportunities, particularly in food processing [111][115]

Financial Performance - Q2 2025 - Net sales decreased by 1.4% to $977.9 million compared to $991.6 million in Q2 2024[4] - Gross profit decreased by 2.2% to $371.3 million, with a gross profit margin of 38.0%[4] - Operating income decreased by 11.6% to $155.4 million[4] - Net earnings decreased by 8.1% to $106.0 million[4] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 7.5% to $200.2 million, representing 20.5% of net sales[4] - Operating cash flow decreased by 18.4% to $122.0 million[4] Segment Performance - Q2 2025 - Commercial Foodservice net sales decreased by 4.8% to $580.6 million, with organic net sales declining by 5.5%[8] - Residential Kitchen net sales decreased by 6.1% to $181.1 million, with organic net sales declining by 7.8%[10] - Food Processing net sales increased by 14.4% to $216.2 million, but organic net sales decreased by 2.9%[13] Revenue Breakdown - YTD 2025 - Commercial Foodservice accounted for 61% of total revenue, Food Processing 20%, and Residential Kitchen 19%[6] - The United States and Canada accounted for 67% of total revenue, Europe and the Middle East 23%, Asia 6%, and Latin America 4%[7] Financial Outlook - The company projects total revenue of $950-975 million for Q3 2025 and $3.81-3.87 billion for the full year 2025[16] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $185-195 million for Q3 2025 and $770-800 million for the full year 2025[16] Capital Allocation - The company repurchased 3.1 million shares, representing 5.7% of equity, for $449 million YTD 2025[18, 20]

Group 1 - Middleby reported revenue of $977.86 million for the quarter ended June 2025, a year-over-year decline of 1.4%, with EPS of $2.35 compared to $2.39 a year ago [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $974.87 million by +0.31%, while the EPS surprise was +6.82% against a consensus estimate of $2.20 [1] - Over the past month, Middleby shares returned -2.3%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.5% change, and the stock holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [3] Group 2 - Revenue from the Commercial Foodservice segment was $580.61 million, below the average estimate of $592.51 million, representing a year-over-year decline of -6.3% [4] - Revenue from the Residential Kitchen segment was $181.06 million, also below the average estimate of $185.38 million, reflecting a -6.1% year-over-year change [4] - Revenue from the Food Processing segment was $216.2 million, surpassing the average estimate of $197.92 million, with a year-over-year increase of +20.5% [4] - Segment Operating Income for Commercial Foodservice was $137.9 million, exceeding the average estimate of $136.13 million [4] - Segment Operating Income for Residential Kitchen was $9.33 million, below the average estimate of $11.11 million [4] - Segment Operating Income for Food Processing was $42.68 million, above the average estimate of $40.23 million [4]

Company Performance - Middleby (MIDD) reported quarterly earnings of $2.35 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.20 per share, but down from $2.39 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +6.82% [1] - The company posted revenues of $977.86 million for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.31%, but down from $991.55 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Middleby has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Outlook - Middleby shares have increased approximately 6.8% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 7.1% [3] - The company's earnings outlook, including current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters, will be crucial for investors [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $2.24 on revenues of $971.84 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $9.19 on revenues of $3.89 billion [7] Industry Context - The Manufacturing - General Industrial industry, to which Middleby belongs, is currently ranked in the top 16% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact Middleby's stock performance [5]