Company Overview - Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) is an independent upstream energy company based in Oklahoma, primarily focused on the Anadarko, Permian, and San Juan Basins. The company was founded in 2017 [4]. Recent Developments - On January 16, 2026, KeyBanc downgraded Mach Natural Resources LP from Overweight to Sector Weight due to a more cautious outlook on the oil and gas sector, citing soft crude pricing and fluctuations in natural gas markets. The downgrade was attributed to integration challenges related to the company's newly acquired oil assets in the Central Basin Platform and gassy holdings in the San Juan Basin [2]. - Following the rating update, on February 12, 2025, Mach Natural Resources LP announced a Q4 2025 cash distribution of $0.53 per common unit, which is an increase of $0.03 per share compared to the same quarter in 2024. The ex-dividend date is set for February 26, 2026, with payments to eligible shareholders on March 12, 2026 [3]. Insider Activity - Mach Natural Resources LP is noted as one of the 12 Dividend Stocks with high insider buying, indicating potential confidence from insiders in the company's future performance [1].

Core Viewpoint - Mach Natural Resources LP will report its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results on March 12, 2026, after the market closes [1] Financial Reporting - The earnings release for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 will be available on the Company's website [1] - A conference call to discuss financial and operating results will take place at 9:00 a.m. Central (10:00 a.m. Eastern) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of evaluating companies as businesses rather than mere stock tickers, highlighting a strategy of investing when the market misprices them [1]. Group 1 - The portfolios managed have consistently outperformed the S&P 500 index since their inception in 2020 [1]. - The investment philosophy is influenced by renowned investors such as Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, Phil Fisher, and Nick Sleep, focusing on learning from their insights [1]. Group 2 - There is a potential intention to initiate a long position in MNR through stock purchases or call options within the next 72 hours [2]. - The article expresses personal opinions and does not involve compensation from any company mentioned [2].

Group 1 - Legacy Ridge Capital Management reported a 7% net return for the Partnership in 2025, after accounting for a 1% performance fee, despite facing market volatility that impacted performance [1] - The Partnership's portfolio is concentrated in 10 names, with a dividend yield of approximately 6% [1] - A shift in the calendar end date could have improved returns by over 4%, indicating the unpredictable nature of concentrated value investing [1] Group 2 - Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) is highlighted as an independent upstream oil and gas company, with a market capitalization of $1.981 billion [2] - As of February 3, 2026, Mach Natural Resources LP's stock closed at $11.76 per share, with a one-month return of 8.59%, but a decline of 31.55% over the past twelve months [2] - Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) is compared to Mach Natural Resources LP, noting that KRP owns mineral rights without the obligation to drill or invest capital, possessing approximately 158K net royalty acres and producing 25,530 BOE per day [3]

Core Insights - Mach Natural Resources (MNR) reported earnings in early November and reaffirmed its focus on natural gas production for 2026 and beyond [1] Group 1: Company Focus - The company is committed to enhancing its natural gas production capabilities [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The path to achieving production goals is expected to be complex and may require strategic adjustments [1]

Core Insights - Mach Natural Resources (MNR) reported Q3 2025 results that met expectations, with a distribution decrease to $0.27 per unit [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 results were in line with expectations, indicating stable performance despite the distribution decrease [1] Guidance Adjustments - Mach Natural Resources adjusted its guidance for 2026, reflecting changes in market conditions or operational outlook [1]

Core Insights - Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) is recognized among the 15 stocks with the highest dividend potential for investment [1] - Northland has reduced its price target for MNR from $21 to $20 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing a positive quarter despite initial perceptions of a miss due to one-time acquisition costs [2] - In Q3 2025, MNR reported revenue of $273 million, reflecting a 6.66% increase year-over-year, and generated $106 million in net cash from operating activities [3] Financial Performance - The company declared a Q3 distribution of $0.27 per unit, totaling $5.14 per unit since its public offering in October 2023, and over $1.2 billion in distributions since 2018 [4] - MNR has achieved an enterprise value exceeding $3.5 billion while maintaining a cash return on capital invested of over 30% annually for the past five years [4] Business Focus - Mach Natural Resources LP specializes in acquiring, developing, and producing oil, natural gas, and NGL reserves as an independent upstream energy company [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported production of 94,000 BOE per day, with 21% oil, 56% natural gas, and 23% NGLs [21] - Average realized prices were $64.79 per barrel of oil, $2.54 per MCF of gas, and $21.78 per barrel of NGLs [21] - Total oil and gas revenues reached $235 million, with oil contributing 50%, gas 32%, and NGLs 18% [21][22] - Adjusted EBITDA was $134 million, and operating cash flow was $106 million [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has focused on maintaining a disciplined execution strategy, only purchasing assets at discounts to PDP/PV10 [5] - The acquisition of ICAV and Savinol has allowed the company to expand into new basins and review more acquisitions in the sub-$150 million range [4][5] - The company has reduced expected CapEx by 8% for 2026 without affecting production guidance [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates a significant increase in natural gas demand due to LNG exports, projecting 24 BCF a day of demand from 2026 to 2030 [11] - The Midcon region currently produces about 9 BCF a day of gas with takeaway capacity of approximately 12 BCF a day [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a debt/EBITDA ratio around one time to ensure financial stability and flexibility for future acquisitions [3] - The focus is on low-decline crude assets and natural gas projects, with a target reinvestment rate of less than 50% [7][9] - The company plans to continue drilling in the Deep Anadarko and Mancos Shale, targeting dry gas projects for 2026 [8][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes the company is nearing the end of a cyclical downturn in crude oil, expecting to harvest higher prices for Savinol crude production [10] - There is cautious optimism regarding natural gas demand, with expectations of increased activity in 2027 and beyond [47] - The company is confident in its ability to maintain production levels while reducing costs through more efficient drilling practices [18][29] Other Important Information - The company announced a distribution of $0.27 per unit, totaling over $1.2 billion in distributions since inception [9][24] - The company ended the quarter with $54 million in cash and $295 million available under its credit facility [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the upside in the Midcon operation? - The upside is attributed to moving deeper into gas zones and achieving competitive pricing above $4, allowing for rates of return north of 50% [26] Question: Are there takeaway constraints in the Midcon? - There are no issues with takeaway capacity, estimating 3 BCF a day of takeaway capacity [27] Question: What is the DNC cost on Deep Anadarko locations? - The DNC cost is approximately $14 million per well, with expected rates of return in the 60s [28][29] Question: How does the company plan to manage its distribution in 2026? - The company expects increasing distributions throughout 2026 as new wells come online [31] Question: What is the strategy for potential drilling partnerships? - The company is open to bringing in partners to help develop its extensive land holdings without changing its reinvestment strategy [39] Question: How is the integration of new properties going? - Integration is going well, with a focus on cost management and operational efficiency [45]

Company Overview - Mach Natural Resources (MNR) has a market capitalization of $2 billion and an enterprise value of $3.1 billion, resulting in an EV/2025e Adjusted EBITDA multiple of 3.8x[14] - The company possesses approximately 2.8 million net acres, operates around 12,600 gross producing wells, and holds proved reserves of 653 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE) [14] - Natural gas accounts for 71% of the company's 2026e volumes, with approximately 50% of gas volumes unhedged [14] - Q4 2025E net daily production is estimated at 151 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), comprising 18% oil, 15% NGLs, and 67% natural gas [14] Financial Performance & Strategy - Mach targets a reinvestment rate of less than 50% of operating cash flow to optimize distributions to unitholders [17] - The company aims to maintain a low net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.0x to sustain financial strength [17] - Mach's realized multiple on invested capital (MOIC) is 1.8x through Q4 2025 [33] - Since 2024, Mach has distributed $4.87 per unit [35] Recent Transactions & Assets - Recent acquisitions in the San Juan Basin (~570,000 net acres, $771 million purchase price) and Permian Basin (~130,000 net acres, $500 million purchase price) are expected to drive CAD accretion [43] - These transactions are projected to increase CAD accretion by 7% in Year 1, 12% in Year 2, and 27% in Year 5 [44] - Following the Permian and San Juan acquisitions, the company's blended decline rate has improved to 15% [45]

Financial Performance - Mach reported total revenue of $273 million and net losses of $36 million for Q3 2025[6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was reported at $124 million[20]. Production and Pricing - Average net production was 94.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, consisting of 21% oil, 56% natural gas, and 23% NGLs[8]. - The average realized price was $64.79 per barrel of oil, $2.54 per Mcf of natural gas, and $21.78 per barrel of NGLs[6]. - Mach achieved a combined initial production rate in excess of 100 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from its first five wells in the Mancos Shale[5]. Capital Expenditures and Costs - Mach incurred total development costs of $59 million, including $53 million of upstream capital[11]. - The 2026 drilling and completion capital program was reduced by 18%, or $63 million, while maintaining prior production guidance[13]. Cash and Debt Position - As of September 30, 2025, Mach had a cash balance of $54 million and remaining availability under the Revolving Credit Facility of $295 million[7]. - The pro forma net-debt-to-Adjusted-EBITDA ratio was 1.3x as of September 30, 2025[7]. Distributions - The company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit, payable on December 4, 2025[12].