Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) is included among the 15 Stocks with Highest Dividend to Invest in. Northland Lowers Price Target on Mach Natural Resources (MNR) to $20, Retains Outperform Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay On November 1⁠0, N‌orthland low‍ered the f⁠irm’s price target‍ on Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) to $20 from $21⁠ and keeps an Out‌perform rating on th⁠e shar‌es. Q3 r‌esults “looked like a miss at first glance,”​ but one-time acquisition cost‌s maske​d what was “a po⁠s ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported production of 94,000 BOE per day, with 21% oil, 56% natural gas, and 23% NGLs [21] - Average realized prices were $64.79 per barrel of oil, $2.54 per MCF of gas, and $21.78 per barrel of NGLs [21] - Total oil and gas revenues reached $235 million, with oil contributing 50%, gas 32%, and NGLs 18% [21][22] - Adjusted EBITDA was $134 million, and operating cash flow was $106 million [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has focused on maintaining a disciplined execution strategy, only purchasing assets at discounts to PDP/PV10 [5] - The acquisition of ICAV and Savinol has allowed the company to expand into new basins and review more acquisitions in the sub-$150 million range [4][5] - The company has reduced expected CapEx by 8% for 2026 without affecting production guidance [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates a significant increase in natural gas demand due to LNG exports, projecting 24 BCF a day of demand from 2026 to 2030 [11] - The Midcon region currently produces about 9 BCF a day of gas with takeaway capacity of approximately 12 BCF a day [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a debt/EBITDA ratio around one time to ensure financial stability and flexibility for future acquisitions [3] - The focus is on low-decline crude assets and natural gas projects, with a target reinvestment rate of less than 50% [7][9] - The company plans to continue drilling in the Deep Anadarko and Mancos Shale, targeting dry gas projects for 2026 [8][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes the company is nearing the end of a cyclical downturn in crude oil, expecting to harvest higher prices for Savinol crude production [10] - There is cautious optimism regarding natural gas demand, with expectations of increased activity in 2027 and beyond [47] - The company is confident in its ability to maintain production levels while reducing costs through more efficient drilling practices [18][29] Other Important Information - The company announced a distribution of $0.27 per unit, totaling over $1.2 billion in distributions since inception [9][24] - The company ended the quarter with $54 million in cash and $295 million available under its credit facility [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the upside in the Midcon operation? - The upside is attributed to moving deeper into gas zones and achieving competitive pricing above $4, allowing for rates of return north of 50% [26] Question: Are there takeaway constraints in the Midcon? - There are no issues with takeaway capacity, estimating 3 BCF a day of takeaway capacity [27] Question: What is the DNC cost on Deep Anadarko locations? - The DNC cost is approximately $14 million per well, with expected rates of return in the 60s [28][29] Question: How does the company plan to manage its distribution in 2026? - The company expects increasing distributions throughout 2026 as new wells come online [31] Question: What is the strategy for potential drilling partnerships? - The company is open to bringing in partners to help develop its extensive land holdings without changing its reinvestment strategy [39] Question: How is the integration of new properties going? - Integration is going well, with a focus on cost management and operational efficiency [45]

Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation November 6, 2025 NYSE: MNR machnr.com Disclaimer and Forward-Looking Statements This presentation is being provided by Mach Natural Resources LP (the "Company") for informational purposes only. No persons have been authorized to make any representations regarding the information contained in this presentation, and if given or made, such representations should not be considered as authorized. None of the Company, its respective affiliates or any of its or their respective employ ...

Financial Performance - Mach reported total revenue of $273 million and net losses of $36 million for Q3 2025[6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was reported at $124 million[20]. Production and Pricing - Average net production was 94.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, consisting of 21% oil, 56% natural gas, and 23% NGLs[8]. - The average realized price was $64.79 per barrel of oil, $2.54 per Mcf of natural gas, and $21.78 per barrel of NGLs[6]. - Mach achieved a combined initial production rate in excess of 100 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from its first five wells in the Mancos Shale[5]. Capital Expenditures and Costs - Mach incurred total development costs of $59 million, including $53 million of upstream capital[11]. - The 2026 drilling and completion capital program was reduced by 18%, or $63 million, while maintaining prior production guidance[13]. Cash and Debt Position - As of September 30, 2025, Mach had a cash balance of $54 million and remaining availability under the Revolving Credit Facility of $295 million[7]. - The pro forma net-debt-to-Adjusted-EBITDA ratio was 1.3x as of September 30, 2025[7]. Distributions - The company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit, payable on December 4, 2025[12].

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q3 2025 reached $272.6 million, a 6.4% increase from $255.5 million in Q3 2024[39] - The company reported a net loss of $35.7 million for Q3 2025, compared to a net income of $67.4 million in Q3 2024[39] - Operating expenses for Q3 2025 totaled $291.8 million, significantly higher than $160.8 million in Q3 2024, marking an increase of 81.6%[39] - The company reported a net income of $69,893,000, a decrease from $148,662,000 in the same period of 2024[42] - The company experienced a net cash provided by operating activities of $378,207,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $371,631,000 for the same period in 2024[42] - The Company’s total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $998.1 million, compared to $954.6 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 4.6%[107] Sales and Revenue - Oil, natural gas, and NGL sales amounted to $234.5 million, up from $209.2 million year-over-year, reflecting a 12.1% increase[39] - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, the Company reported gross oil, natural gas, and NGL sales of $234.5 million, an increase from $212.7 million in the same period of 2024, representing a growth of 10.2%[96] - The Company’s revenue from oil sales for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $352.2 million, down from $420.5 million in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 16.2%[96] Assets and Liabilities - Proved oil and natural gas properties increased to $3.9 billion as of September 30, 2025, compared to $2.4 billion at the end of 2024[36] - Total current assets rose to $375.1 million from $322.1 million, indicating a 16.5% increase[36] - Long-term debt increased to $1.1 billion from $668.8 million, reflecting a 70.9% rise[36] - The company had total assets of $3.77 billion as of September 30, 2025, up from $2.34 billion as of December 31, 2024[203] - The company’s total accrued liabilities increased to $120.992 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $52.920 million at the end of 2024[130] Capital Expenditures and Investments - Capital expenditures for oil and natural gas properties totaled $165,579,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $162,432,000 in 2024[42] - Capital expenditures, including acquisitions, were $594.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, significantly higher than $98.9 million in the same period of 2024[201] - The Company completed the IKAV Acquisition for approximately $759.6 million, which included $349.8 million in cash and 30.6 million common units valued at approximately $409.9 million[101] - The Sabinal Acquisition was finalized for approximately $444.4 million, consisting of $199.3 million in cash and 19.2 million common units valued at approximately $256.9 million[108] Debt and Financing - As of September 30, 2025, the Company reported $1.2 billion in outstanding borrowings under the New Credit Agreement, with an effective interest rate of 8.1%[138] - The New Credit Agreement has a maximum commitment amount of $2.0 billion and requires a consolidated total net leverage ratio of less than or equal to 3.00 to 1.00[132] - The Company recorded $18.5 million in debt extinguishment costs related to the termination of the Term Loan Credit Agreement[141] - The Company’s cash paid for interest decreased to $39.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $75.4 million in 2024, a reduction of 48.3%[98] Derivative Instruments and Risk Management - The Company uses derivative contracts to reduce exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices, including fixed price swaps and costless collars[145] - The Company has open fixed price swap positions related to oil production totaling 5,423 Mbbl with an average fixed price of $66.97[149] - The Company has open costless collar positions related to oil production totaling 1,098 Mbbl with a floor price of $58.13 and a ceiling price of $78.05[152] - The Company reported total gains on derivative contracts of $24.753 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025[155] Legal and Compliance - The Company recognized $8.2 million of expense related to legal matters during the second quarter of 2025, with accrued liabilities of approximately $4.8 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $1.5 million at the end of 2024[175] - The Company has accrued approximately $4.8 million in liabilities related to legal matters as of September 30, 2025, indicating a significant increase in potential legal expenses[175] Compensation and Equity - The weighted average common units outstanding for Q3 2025 was 126,457, compared to 96,856 in Q3 2024[39] - Total non-cash compensation cost related to Time-Based Phantom Units was $5.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $4.4 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a 25% increase[169] - Total non-cash compensation cost related to Performance Phantom Units was $0.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $0.3 million for the same period in 2024[174] Inventory and Production - As of September 30, 2025, the company's total inventory was $49.362 million, up from $24.301 million as of December 31, 2024, with production equipment valued at $45.911 million and crude oil in storage at $3.451 million[69] - The average depletion rate per barrel equivalent unit of production was $7.01 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, down from $8.17 for the same period in 2024[59]

Core Insights - The energy sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key indicator for identifying oversold conditions, typically below 30 [1] Company Summaries - **Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR)**: Filed for a mixed shelf of up to $250 million; stock fell approximately 12% over the past month with a 52-week low of $11.91; RSI value is 27.3; shares closed at $12.07, down 1.6% [7] - **Global Partners LP (NYSE:GLP)**: Reported weaker-than-expected Q2 results; stock declined around 14% in the last month, reaching a 52-week low of $43.20; RSI value is 25.8; shares closed at $43.89, down 2.4% [7] - **SM Energy Co (NYSE:SM)**: Analyst maintained a Sector Perform rating and raised the price target from $34 to $35; stock fell about 21% over the past month with a 52-week low of $19.67; RSI value is 29.9; shares closed at $21.79, down 1.5% [7]

Core Insights - The energy sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key indicator for identifying oversold conditions, typically below 30 [1] Company Summaries - **Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR)**: Filed for a mixed shelf of up to $250 million; stock fell approximately 12% over the past month with a 52-week low of $11.91; RSI value is 27.3; shares closed at $12.07, down 1.6% [7] - **Global Partners LP (NYSE:GLP)**: Reported weaker-than-expected Q2 results; stock declined around 14% in the last month with a 52-week low of $43.20; RSI value is 25.8; shares closed at $43.89, down 2.4% [7] - **SM Energy Co (NYSE:SM)**: Analyst maintained a Sector Perform rating and raised the price target from $34 to $35; stock fell about 21% over the past month with a 52-week low of $19.67; RSI value is 29.9; shares closed at $21.79, down 1.5% [7]

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly turning to dividend-yielding stocks during market turbulence and uncertainty, as these companies typically have high free cash flows and offer substantial dividend payouts [1] Group 1: High-Yielding Stocks in Energy Sector - Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) has a dividend yield of 18.53%. Analyst John Freeman from Raymond James maintained a Strong Buy rating and raised the price target from $21 to $22, with an accuracy rate of 75%. Stifel analyst Selman Akyol also maintained a Buy rating, increasing the price target from $21 to $23, with an accuracy rate of 71%. Recently, Mach Natural Resources filed for a mixed shelf of up to $250 million [3][7] - Delek Logistics Partners LP (NYSE:DKL) has a dividend yield of 10.36%. Mizuho analyst Gabriel Moreen maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $44 to $45, with an accuracy rate of 68%. Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins maintained an Outperform rating, increasing the price target from $44 to $46, with an accuracy rate of 77%. Delek Logistics posted weaker-than-expected quarterly results on August 6 [4][7] - Vitesse Energy Inc (NYSE:VTS) has a dividend yield of 10.19%. Evercore ISI Group analyst Chris Baker maintained an In-Line rating and cut the price target from $22 to $20, with an accuracy rate of 69%. Roth MKM analyst John White maintained a Buy rating, increasing the price target from $30.5 to $33, with an accuracy rate of 63%. Vitesse Energy reported upbeat quarterly sales on August 4 [5][7]

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