Group 1 - The article discusses the analysis of oil and gas companies, specifically focusing on Murphy Oil and similar firms, highlighting the search for undervalued entities in the sector [1] - The industry is characterized as a boom-bust, cyclical market, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2] - The investing group, Oil & Gas Value Research, seeks under-followed oil companies and out-of-favor midstream companies that present attractive investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding a company's balance sheet, competitive position, and development prospects for investment decisions [1] - An active chat room is part of the investing group, facilitating discussions among oil and gas investors regarding recent information and ideas [2]

Group 1 - The article does not provide any relevant content regarding company or industry insights [1]

Core Insights - Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted net earnings of 41 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 16 cents by 156.3%, but down 60.9% from 74 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - The company’s revenues were $732.9 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $665 million by 10.3%, although this represents a 3.3% decline year over year [2] - Murphy Oil produced 200,383 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/D) in Q3 2025, exceeding the guidance range of 185,000-193,000 BOE/D due to strong new well productivity and no storm downtime [3] Financial Performance - Total costs and expenses for Murphy Oil were $727.2 million, reflecting a 25.5% increase from $579.3 million in the year-ago quarter [3] - Interest expenses rose to $24.7 million from $21.3 million in the previous year [4] - The company returned $242.4 million to shareholders in the first nine months of 2025, which includes $102.6 million in share repurchases and $139.8 million in dividends [4] Financial Condition - As of September 30, 2025, Murphy Oil had cash and cash equivalents of $425.9 million, slightly up from $423.6 million at the end of 2024, with total liquidity of $1.6 billion [5] - Long-term debt increased to $1.425 billion from $1.27 billion at the end of 2024 [5] - Net cash provided by continuing operational activities in the first nine months of 2025 was $0.99 billion, down from $1.29 billion in the same period last year [5] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, Murphy Oil expects production, excluding non-controlling interest, to be in the range of 176,000-182,500 BOE/D and exploration expenses to be $80 million [6] - The company reiterated its 2025 capital expenditures guidance of $1.13-$1.28 billion and expects total production for the year to be between 174,500-182,500 BOE/D [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total production reached 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with oil production at 94,000 barrels per day, exceeding production guidance for the second consecutive quarter [4] - Operating costs averaged $9.39 per BOE, a 20% decrease from the previous quarter [5] - Capital expenditures totaled $164 million, below guidance, reflecting ongoing efforts to drive capital efficiencies [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Significant progress in international development and exploration, with the Lac Da Vang Golden Camel field development on track and the first development well drilled [5][6] - The Hai Su Vang 2X appraisal well was spud as planned, and the Savette well in Côte d'Ivoire is expected to be spud before year-end [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Exploration teams are assessing prospects across three continents, testing gross resource potential of over 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent [6] - The company is closely monitoring commodity markets to manage near-term volatility while pursuing long-term goals [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Exploration remains a significant focus, with a robust portfolio of assets positioned to capitalize on global energy demand [7] - The company aims to balance near-term production and free cash flow with investments for longer-term resource additions, particularly in offshore business [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong balance sheet and flexible multi-basin portfolio to navigate potential commodity price volatility [26][30] - The company is developing a multi-year plan that supports its strategy while being cautious about capital expenditures in response to market conditions [30] Other Important Information - The company highlighted operational improvements in Eagle Ford and Montney, with breakeven costs reported as low as $35 or less [39] - An impairment charge was taken due to high operating costs associated with non-operated facilities, but it does not significantly impact other producing assets [58][60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on the exploration program in West Africa - Management expressed excitement about the Côte d'Ivoire exploration program, with the Savette well expected to spud in December and significant potential identified [11][12] Question: Down cycle playbook and capital allocation - Management is closely monitoring commodity markets and developing a flexible capital plan that balances short-term and long-term investments [26][30] Question: Operational improvements and breakeven analysis - Management reported strong performance in Eagle Ford and Montney, with significant improvements in capital efficiency and low breakeven costs [39] Question: Appraisal well objectives in Vietnam - The main objective of the HSV 2X well is to determine reservoir continuity and oil-water contact, which will inform future development plans [20][21] Question: Implications of impairment charges - The impairment was due to high costs associated with non-operated facilities, with no significant impact on other assets [58][60]

2025 THIRD QUARTER EARNINGS NOVEMBER 6, 2025 CONFERENCE CALL AND WEBCAST 3Q 2025 Earnings Presentation 0 0 ERIC M. HAMBLY PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Non-GAAP Financial Measures – This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures that management believes are useful tools for internal use and the investment community in evaluating Murphy Oil Corporation's overall financial performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are broadly used to value and compare companies in the crude oil an ...

Core Insights - Murphy Oil reported a revenue of $732.99 million for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.3% year-over-year, while EPS was $0.41 compared to $0.74 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $664.71 million by 10.27%, and the EPS surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.16 by 156.25% [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced a return of -10.9% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 1% [3] - Murphy Oil holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3] Production Metrics - Total net crude oil and condensate production was 100.07 thousand barrels per day, exceeding the six-analyst average estimate of 94.24 thousand barrels per day [4] - Net natural gas liquids production reached 12.98 thousand barrels per day, surpassing the six-analyst average estimate of 10.87 thousand barrels per day [4] - Total net hydrocarbons production, excluding NCI, was 200.38 KBOE/D, above the six-analyst average estimate of 195.07 KBOE/D [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from exploration and production in Canada was $108 million, below the average estimate of $130.91 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 31.6% [4] - Revenue from exploration and production in the United States was $613.7 million, exceeding the average estimate of $518.38 million, with a year-over-year increase of 2.8% [4] - Total revenue from sales to customers was $720.97 million, surpassing the average estimate of $646.45 million, but reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 4.3% [4]

Core Insights - Murphy Oil (MUR) reported quarterly earnings of $0.41 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.16 per share, but down from $0.74 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +156.25% [1] - The company generated revenues of $732.99 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.27%, although this is a decrease from $758.33 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Murphy Oil has outperformed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates two times in the same period [2] Earnings Outlook - The sustainability of Murphy Oil's stock price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and future earnings expectations [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.19 on revenues of $638.07 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.17 on revenues of $2.66 billion [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently ranked in the bottom 16% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stocks in this sector [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact investor sentiment and stock performance [5]

Financial Performance - Murphy Oil Corporation reported a net loss from continuing operations of $7.8 million for Q3 2025, a significant decrease from a net income of $151.7 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher impairment expenses of $115.0 million and lower revenues from production of $32.2 million [118]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net income from continuing operations was $116.1 million, a decrease of $308.1 million compared to the same period in 2024, largely due to lower revenues from production of $268.5 million [121]. - Revenue from production for Q3 2025 was $721.0 million, down from $753.2 million in Q3 2024, while total revenues and other income decreased to $721.8 million from $754.1 million [128]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, revenues from production decreased by $268.5 million to $2,076.8 million compared to $2,345.3 million in 2024, largely due to lower crude oil prices and production issues [136]. - The Corporate segment reported a loss of $18.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, a favorable variance of $15.1 million compared to the same period in 2024 [150]. Production and Operations - Total hydrocarbon production for Q3 2025 was 206,936 barrels of oil equivalent per day, an 8% increase compared to Q3 2024, driven by higher production in the Eagle Ford Shale and Tupper Montney [120]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total hydrocarbon production was 189,035 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 2% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [124]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, total net crude oil and condensate production increased to 100,065 barrels per day, up from 94,078 barrels per day in 2024, representing a growth of approximately 6.3% [131]. - Total net hydrocarbons produced, including noncontrolling interest, reached 206,936 barrels per day for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 191,273 barrels per day in 2024, indicating an increase of about 8.2% [131]. - Net natural gas production for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was 563,319 thousand cubic feet per day, compared to 522,286 thousand cubic feet per day in 2024, marking an increase of about 7.9% [133]. - The company reported a total net natural gas liquids production of 12,984 barrels per day for the three months ended September 30, 2025, up from 10,147 barrels per day in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 27.5% [133]. Expenses and Costs - Lease operating expenses for Q3 2025 were $184.4 million, a decrease from $222.9 million in Q3 2024, attributed to lower workover costs and production handling fees [128]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, lease operating expenses decreased by $38.5 million compared to the same period in 2024, while transportation, gathering, and processing expenses increased by $0.6 million [138]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, lease operating expenses decreased by $111.8 million, and transportation, gathering, and processing expenses decreased by $6.4 million compared to the same period in 2024 [139]. - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) for the three months ended September 30, 2025, increased by $59.3 million compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to higher sales volumes in the Eagle Ford Shale [141]. - DD&A for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased by $87.4 million, mainly driven by higher sales volumes in the Eagle Ford Shale and higher rates at U.S. Offshore [142]. Impairment and Exploration - The impairment expense during the quarter was related to the Dalmatian field in the Gulf of America, resulting from reserve reductions [119]. - The Company impaired assets for $115.0 million related to the partial write-down of the Dalmatian field in the Gulf of America for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 [143]. - Exploration expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, increased by $1.3 million compared to the same period in 2024, due to higher geological and geophysical costs [145]. - Exploration expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, decreased by $61.0 million compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to no dry holes recorded in 2025 [146]. Liquidity and Financial Position - The company paid down $50.0 million of debt under the revolving credit facility and returned $46.4 million to shareholders through a quarterly dividend of $0.325 per share [121]. - The Company's primary sources of liquidity include cash on hand, net cash from continuing operations, and available borrowing capacity under its senior unsecured revolving credit facility [152]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company had $150.0 million of outstanding borrowings under the senior unsecured RCF [203]. - A 10% increase in the average interest rate would have increased the quarterly interest expense by approximately $0.3 million [203]. - Actual results may vary due to changes in the amount of variable rate debt outstanding [203]. Pricing and Market Conditions - As of September 30, 2025, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price was $62.37 per barrel, reflecting a 2% decrease from $60.98 at the end of October 2025 [126]. - The average price of WTI crude oil for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $64.93 per barrel, down from $75.10 per barrel in 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 13.5% [132]. - The average price for natural gas (NYMEX) for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $3.03 per MMBTU, an increase from $2.09 per MMBTU in 2024, representing a rise of approximately 45% [132]. - The average price for natural gas liquids in the United States - Onshore for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $18.57 per barrel, slightly down from $19.05 per barrel in 2024 [132]. - The company experienced a decrease in production revenues from Canada - Oil, which fell to $53.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, down from $101.1 million in 2024, a decline of approximately 47.3% [135].

Financial Performance - Murphy Oil Corporation reported a net loss from continuing operations of $3 million for Q3 2025, translating to a diluted loss per share of $0.02[2] - Adjusted net income from continuing operations was $58.1 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $390.6 million for the same period[2] - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $732.985 million, a decrease of 3.5% compared to $758.331 million in Q3 2024[25] - Net income attributable to Murphy for Q3 2025 was a loss of $2.973 million, compared to a profit of $139.094 million in Q3 2024[25] - Operating income from continuing operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $241.898 million, down from $517.405 million in the same period of 2024[25] - Net income attributable to Murphy for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $92.3 million, down from $356.8 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting a decline of 74.2%[36] - Impairment of assets for Q3 2025 was $92.0 million, impacting net income significantly[28] Production and Operations - Total production increased sequentially to 200,383 BOEPD, with oil production at 94,067 BOPD, exceeding guidance due to strong new well productivity[7] - The onshore business produced approximately 132 MBOEPD in Q3 2025, with 35% of production being liquids[8] - Total net crude oil and condensate production for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was 100,065 barrels per day, an increase of 6.4% from 94,078 barrels per day in the same period of 2024[40] - The company’s total net hydrocarbons production, excluding noncontrolling interest, was 200,383 barrels per day for the three months ended September 30, 2025, an increase of 8.5% from 184,567 barrels per day in the same period of 2024[40] - Total net crude oil and condensate production increased to 101,614 barrels per day in Q3 2025, up from 95,104 barrels per day in Q3 2024, representing an increase of 16.4%[41] - Net natural gas production reached 563,319 thousand cubic feet per day in Q3 2025, compared to 522,286 thousand cubic feet per day in Q3 2024, reflecting an increase of 7.9%[41] Financial Position and Debt - Murphy's total debt stood at $1.4 billion, with a liquidity position of approximately $1.6 billion as of September 30, 2025[5][6] - The company paid down $50 million of debt during the quarter and returned $46 million to shareholders through dividends[4] - Long-term debt, including finance lease obligations, increased to $1,425.2 million as of September 30, 2025, from $1,274.5 million at the end of 2024[27] - Total assets increased to $9,732.8 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $9,667.5 million at the end of 2024[27] - Total liabilities rose to $4,483.1 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $4,325.6 million at the end of 2024[27] Capital Expenditures and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be between $1,135 million and $1,285 million[14] - Property additions and dry hole costs for Q3 2025 were $148.964 million, down from $216.413 million in Q3 2024, a decrease of 31.2%[26] - Free cash flow for Q3 2025 was $218.8 million, compared to $181.9 million in Q3 2024[34] - Adjusted free cash flow for Q3 2025 was $124.4 million, an increase from $101.8 million in Q3 2024[34] - Capital expenditures for the three months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $189.2 million, a decrease of 10.5% from $211.9 million in the same period of 2024[39] Shareholder Returns - The company has $550 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization as of September 30, 2025[4] - Cash dividends per common share increased to $0.325 in Q3 2025 from $0.300 in Q3 2024, reflecting a growth of 8.3%[25] Future Guidance and Projects - The Lac Da Vang (Golden Camel) project in Vietnam is on schedule for first oil in Q4 2026, with platform jacket installation completed ahead of schedule[3][12] - For Q4 2025, total net production guidance is set between 176,000 to 184,000 BOEPD, with full-year production guidance of 174,500 to 182,500 BOEPD[14]

Core Viewpoint - Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is anticipated to experience a year-over-year decline in both revenue and earnings when it reports its third-quarter 2025 results on November 5, despite a previous earnings surprise of 28.57% in the last quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Murphy Oil's third-quarter production volume is expected to be between 185,000 to 193,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day (Mboe/d), with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of 195.07 Mboe/d, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5.7% [5][10]. - The expected revenue for the third quarter is $664.74 million, indicating a decline of 12.35% compared to the previous year [5][10]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is 16 cents, representing a significant decline of 78.38% from the year-ago figure [6]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Increased production from both domestic and international assets, along with new wells coming online, is likely to support Murphy Oil's quarterly earnings [2]. - The company's financial performance and free cash flow have improved due to higher production from its low-breakeven North American portfolio, which has facilitated stock repurchases and enhanced shareholder returns [3]. - Free cash flow is also aiding ongoing debt-reduction initiatives, which are expected to lower capital servicing expenses and improve margins [4]. Group 3: Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model does not predict a likely earnings beat for Murphy Oil this quarter, as the company has an Earnings ESP of -4.54% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [7][8].