Cautionary Note to US Investors – The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires oil and natural gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We may use certain terms in this presentation, such as "resource", "gross resource", "recoverable resource", "net risked PMEAN resource", "recove ...

Financial Performance - Murphy Oil Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted net earnings of 35 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56 cents by 37.5% and down 61.1% from 90 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - GAAP earnings were 34 cents per share compared to 75 cents in the year-ago quarter, with the difference attributed to discontinued operations and other items affecting comparability [2] - Revenues for the fourth quarter were $670.9 million, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $727 million by 7.7%, while total revenues for the full year were $3.02 billion, down from $3.46 billion in 2023 [3] Operational Highlights - The company produced 174,837 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/D) in the fourth quarter of 2024, a decrease from 184,679 BOE/D in the fourth quarter of 2023, with 48.6% of the production being oil [4] - Total costs and expenses were $585.8 million, down 8.7% from $641.4 million a year ago [4] Debt and Share Repurchase - Murphy Oil has reduced its outstanding debt by 60% since 2020, resulting in a 50% reduction in interest expenses [5] - In 2024, the company repurchased $300 million of stock, or 8 million shares, and had $650 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization as of December 31, 2024 [5] Financial Condition - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $423.6 million, up from $317.1 million a year earlier, and total liquidity of $1.8 billion [6] - Long-term debt was $1.27 billion, down from $1.32 billion as of December 31, 2023, with net cash provided by continuing operational activities at $1.73 billion compared to $1.75 billion in 2023 [6] Reserves and Future Guidance - After producing 65 million barrels of oil equivalent, Murphy's preliminary year-end 2024 proved reserves were 713 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE), with a total reserve replacement of 83% [7] - For first-quarter 2025, the company expects production in the range of 159,000-167,000 BOE/D, with 51% expected to be oil, and reiterated 2025 capital expenditures between $1.13 billion and $1.28 billion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Murphy Oil reported quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.56 per share, and down from $0.90 per share a year ago, indicating a significant earnings surprise of -37.50% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $670.96 million for the quarter ended December 2024, which was 7.65% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate and down from $844.2 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Murphy Oil has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Murphy Oil shares have declined approximately 3.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 2.7% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Murphy Oil is 3 (Hold), indicating that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.85 on revenues of $743.68 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.53 on revenues of $3.07 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Murphy Oil is mixed, which could change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently in the top 23% of Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - EOG Resources, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -16.6% [9]

Financial Performance - Murphy Oil Corporation reported a net income of $50 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, for Q4 2024, and a full-year net income of $407 million, or $2.70 per diluted share[1][2][10]. - Total revenue from sales to customers for Q4 2024 was $669.6 million, a decrease of 20.5% from $842.3 million in Q4 2023[55]. - Net income attributable to Murphy for Q4 2024 was $50.3 million, down 56.7% from $116.3 million in Q4 2023[59]. - Operating income from continuing operations for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $602.6 million, a decline of 42.3% compared to $1,042.0 million in 2023[55]. - Total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $3,028.5 million, down from $3,460.2 million in 2023, representing a decline of 12.5%[75]. - Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Murphy for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $1,519.5 million, compared to $1,901.0 million in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 20.1%[66]. - The net income from continuing operations for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $489.3 million, down from $725.2 million in 2023, a decline of 32.5%[75]. Production and Operations - The company achieved a record high peak gross production rate of 496 MMCFD in Tupper Montney and averaged 175 MBOEPD in Q4 2024[8][11]. - Net crude oil and condensate production for Q4 2024 was 91,460 barrels per day, a decline of 8.6% from 100,079 barrels per day in Q4 2023[88]. - Total net production (BOEPD) excluding noncontrolling interest is projected to be between 159,000 and 167,000[98]. - Full year 2025 guidance for total net production (BOEPD) excluding noncontrolling interest is estimated to be between 174,500 and 182,500[98]. - Production from the United States – Eagle Ford Shale is 18,300 BOPD and 21,400 BOEPD[98]. - Production from the Gulf of Mexico excluding NCI is 51,400 BOPD and 57,500 BOEPD[98]. - Canada – Tupper Montney production is 336,000 MCFD[98]. - Kaybob Duvernay production includes 2,300 BOPD and 3,900 BOEPD[98]. - Offshore production is reported at 10,900 BOEPD[98]. - Other production contributes 200 BOEPD[98]. Capital Expenditures and Investments - Murphy's capital expenditures (CAPEX) for Q4 2024 totaled $186 million, with full-year CAPEX amounting to $953 million[9][12]. - The 2025 CAPEX guidance is projected to be between $1,135 million and $1,285 million, with expected production of 174.5 to 182.5 MBOEPD[27][28]. - For the Eagle Ford Shale, the company plans to spend approximately $360 million in 2025 CAPEX, with $275 million allocated to drill 34 operated wells and bring online 35 operated wells[38]. - In Canada, approximately $140 million of the 2025 CAPEX is allocated, with $65 million for drilling 8 operated wells in the Tupper Montney and $50 million for 6 operated wells in the Kaybob Duvernay[39]. - Total capital expenditures attributable to Murphy for Q4 2024 were $185.8 million, down 22.8% from $239.5 million in Q4 2023[84]. - Total capital expenditures for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $952.8 million, a decrease of 10.5% compared to $1,067.9 million in 2023[84]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced an 8% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.325 per share for 2025, resulting in an annualized dividend of $1.30 per share[5]. - Murphy repurchased $300 million of shares in 2024, totaling 8.0 million shares, and had $650 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization[13]. - Murphy allocates a minimum of 50% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholder returns, primarily through buybacks, while maintaining a $1.0 billion total long-term debt goal[47]. Debt and Liquidity - As of December 31, 2024, Murphy's total debt was $1.27 billion, with a net debt to total capital ratio of only 13%[16][17]. - The company entered a new five-year senior unsecured credit facility of $1.35 billion, enhancing liquidity by nearly 70% compared to the previous facility[15][17]. - Total liabilities rose to $4.33 billion in 2024, compared to $4.22 billion in 2023, marking an increase of 2.6%[86]. Exploration and Reserves - Murphy maintained preliminary proved reserves of 713 MMBOE at year-end 2024, with a reserve replacement ratio of 83%[18]. - The company has allocated approximately $145 million to its 2025 exploration program, including drilling two operated exploration wells in the Gulf of Mexico and additional wells in Côte d'Ivoire and Vietnam[34]. - The company drilled an oil discovery at Hai Su Vang-1X in offshore Vietnam, encountering approximately 370 feet of net oil pay from two reservoirs[4][24]. Costs and Expenses - Total costs and expenses for Q4 2024 were $585.8 million, a decrease of 8.7% from $641.4 million in Q4 2023[55]. - Lease operating expenses for Q4 2024 were $220.2 million, compared to $196.8 million in Q4 2023, reflecting an increase of 11.9%[78]. - Lease operating expenses for the year 2024 were $937.0 million, up from $784.4 million in 2023, indicating an increase of 19.5%[80]. - The average lease operating expense per barrel of oil equivalent sold for Q4 2024 was $13.12, compared to $11.00 in Q4 2023, reflecting an increase of 19.2%[82]. Impairments and Adjustments - The company incurred an impairment of assets of $28.4 million in Q4 2024, compared to no impairment in Q4 2023[59]. - The impairment of assets for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $62.9 million, compared to no impairment in 2023[71]. - The total adjustments for Q4 2024 resulted in a net adjustment of $6.7 million, compared to a net adjustment of $49.0 million for the year[63]. Forward-Looking Statements - The company emphasizes that forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including macro conditions in the oil and gas industry and geopolitical concerns[50].

Core Viewpoint - Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results on January 30, with a prior negative earnings surprise of 2.63% in the last quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Impacting Q4 Results - The fourth-quarter earnings are anticipated to benefit from increased production in both domestic and international assets, particularly from new wells in the Gulf of Mexico and Eagle Ford Shale [3]. - However, production volumes are expected to be negatively impacted by planned onshore downtime of 1,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 1,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of maintenance downtime at non-operated Terra Nova [3]. - The company has improved its balance sheet and liquidity through capital market transactions, and ongoing debt-reduction initiatives are likely to lower capital servicing expenses, enhancing margins [4]. Group 2: Production and Financial Estimates - Murphy Oil expects quarterly production, excluding NCI, to be between 181.5 and 189.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOEPD), with 51% of this expected to be oil [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is $752.05 million, reflecting a decline of 10.92% from the previous year, while the consensus for earnings per share is 62 cents, indicating a 31.1% decrease from the prior year [6]. Group 3: Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for Murphy Oil is -3.85%, and the company holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating that the model does not predict a conclusive earnings beat this time [7][8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the analysis of oil and gas companies, specifically focusing on identifying undervalued companies in the sector [1] - It highlights the retirement of long-time CEO Roger Jenkins and the appointment of Eric Hambly as his successor, marking a significant leadership change [2] - The cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry is emphasized, indicating that it requires patience and experience to navigate effectively [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that the analyst holds a beneficial long position in shares of Murphy Oil (MUR) and ExxonMobil (XOM), indicating a positive outlook on these companies [3] - It is noted that the article is based on the author's own opinions and does not involve compensation from the companies mentioned [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Murphy Oil Corporation reported net income of $139 million for Q3 2024, translating to $0.93 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $111 million or $0.74 per diluted share [11] - The company generated $397 million in adjusted EBITDA during the quarter, with $211 million in accrued CapEx, excluding non-controlling interest [11][12] - Year-to-date, Murphy has repurchased $300 million of stock, reducing long-term debt by $50 million [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Eagle Ford Shale, Murphy produced an average of 32,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q3 2024, with 72% oil and 86% liquids volumes [15] - The Tupper Montney asset produced an average of 429 million net cubic feet per day, exceeding guidance by approximately 11 million cubic feet per day [17] - In the Gulf of Mexico, production averaged 67,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with 79% oil [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Murphy realized an oil price of nearly $76 per barrel, with NGL prices at nearly $22 and natural gas at $1.47 per 1,000 cubic feet [10] - The company achieved a realized price of $1.35 per 1,000 cubic feet for natural gas, compared to an AECO average of $0.50 per 1,000 cubic feet [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The corporate priorities include deleveraging, executing operations, exploring new opportunities, and returning capital to shareholders [5] - Murphy aims to allocate a minimum of 50% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholder returns, primarily through buybacks [7] - The company is committed to a $1 billion long-term debt target while reinvesting approximately 50% of cash flow in high-returning offshore projects [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to withstand commodity price volatility due to a strengthened balance sheet [12] - The outlook for Q4 2024 includes production forecasts of 181,500 to 189,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with a tightening guidance range for the full year to 180,000 to 182,000 barrels [26][27] - Management highlighted the excitement around the Vietnam exploration program and the potential for significant business development in the region [39][40] Other Important Information - Murphy has initiated construction of the Loc Duvang production platform in Vietnam and is progressing with its field development plan [21][22] - The company has a robust sustainability report detailing ongoing environmental stewardship and governance [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Plans for 2025 operations and oil price impact - Management indicated that the aspiration is to maintain oil-weighted low CAGR growth while spending approximately $1.1 billion in CapEx annually, with production expected to be similar or slightly higher than 2024 [35][36] Question: Cost and potential upside of Vietnam wells - The Hai Su Hong prospect targets a mean of 170 million barrels of oil equivalent, with significant potential for material business development in Vietnam [38][39] Question: Consolidation opportunities in the current market - Management is open to evaluating M&A opportunities, particularly in offshore areas, while focusing on maintaining a strong balance sheet and maximizing free cash flow [45][54] Question: Performance issues with Terra Nova - Management expressed disappointment with Terra Nova's performance, averaging about 55% uptime, and indicated that they are working with partners to improve operations [57][59] Question: Onshore drilling plans and production growth - Management confirmed a shift to a more consistent drilling schedule in Eagle Ford, which is expected to smooth out well delivery and increase production [92][93]

Core Insights - Murphy Oil Corporation reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted net earnings of 74 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 76 cents by 2.6% and showing a 53.4% decrease from $1.59 in the same quarter last year [1] - Revenues for the quarter were $758.3 million, slightly exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $757 million by 0.2%, but down nearly 30% from $959.7 million in the prior-year quarter [3][4] Revenue Analysis - The decline in revenue was attributed to lower contributions from the Gulf of Mexico due to downtime at the Samurai field and hurricane-related disruptions, as well as a decrease in contributions from Eagle Ford Shale due to natural well decline and fewer wells being brought online [4] - Lower commodity pricing across all products also contributed to the revenue decline during the period [4] Operational Performance - Murphy Oil produced 184,567 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/D) in Q3 2024, down from 201,705 BOE/D in Q3 2023, with 47.6% of the production being oil [5] - Total costs and expenses were $579.3 million, a slight decrease of 0.5% from $582.1 million a year ago [5] Financial Condition - The company had cash and cash equivalents of $271.2 million as of September 30, 2024, down from $317.1 million as of December 31, 2023, with total liquidity of $1.1 billion [8] - Long-term debt was $1.27 billion as of September 30, 2024, reduced from $1.32 billion at the end of 2023 [8] - Net interest charges decreased to $21.3 million, down nearly 28.8% from $29.8 million in the prior-year quarter [6] Shareholder Returns - In Q3, Murphy Oil repurchased $194 million of stock, equivalent to 5.4 million shares at an average price of $36.12 per share, with $650 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization [7] Guidance - For Q4 2024, Murphy Oil expects production to be in the range of 181,500-189,500 BOE/D, with 51% expected to be oil [9] - The company reiterated its 2024 capital expenditures guidance of $920-$1,020 million and revised its production guidance for 2024 to 180,000-182,000 BOE/D from the previous range of 180,000-188,000 BOE/D [10]

分组1 - Murphy Oil reported quarterly earnings of $0.74 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.76 per share, and down from $1.59 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -2.63% [1] - The company posted revenues of $758.33 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.14%, but down from $959.65 million year-over-year [2] - Murphy Oil shares have lost about 23% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 24.3% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.03 on revenues of $801.25 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.45 on revenues of $3.16 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is currently in the bottom 6% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential underperformance compared to higher-ranked industries [8]

Production and Revenue - Murphy Oil Corporation produced 191,273 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q3 2024, an 8% decrease compared to Q3 2023[89]. - Total revenues and other income for Q3 2024 were $754.1 million, down from $956.4 million in Q3 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 21%[95]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2024, total revenue from production was $753.2 million, a decrease of $192.7 million compared to $945.9 million in the same period of 2023[105]. - Revenues from U.S. oil production for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were $561.9 million, a decrease of 27.6% compared to $776.3 million in the same period of 2023[105]. - Revenues from Canadian oil production for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were $101.1 million, significantly up from $42.9 million in the same period of 2023[105]. Income and Expenses - Net income from continuing operations for Q3 2024 was $151.7 million, a decrease of $126.5 million compared to the same period in 2023[89]. - Lease operating expenses increased to $222.9 million in Q3 2024, compared to $193.4 million in Q3 2023, representing a rise of 15.5%[95]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, net income was $424.1 million, a decrease of $160.6 million compared to the same period in 2023[91]. - The company impaired assets for $34.5 million related to the Calliope field in the Gulf of Mexico for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, due to operational issues[111]. - Corporate activities reported a loss of $33.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, an unfavorable variance of $3.6 million compared to the same period of 2023[116]. Production Costs and Operational Issues - Higher lease operating expenses were primarily due to workover projects in the Gulf of Mexico and increased production activity in Canada[91]. - The company experienced downtime at the Samurai field and hurricane-related downtime, impacting production revenues in the Gulf of Mexico[105]. - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) expense for the three months ended September 30, 2024 decreased by $12.6 million, primarily due to lower volumes in the Gulf of Mexico and at Eagle Ford Shale[110]. - Exploration expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024 increased by $4.8 million, primarily due to higher geological and geophysical costs in the Gulf of Mexico[112]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The company's primary sources of liquidity include cash on hand and net cash provided by continuing operations activities[117]. - Net cash provided by continuing operations activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $89.7 million higher compared to the same period in 2023[119]. - As of September 30, 2024, the company had approximately $1.1 billion of liquidity, consisting of $271.2 million in cash and cash equivalents and $799.6 million available on its committed senior unsecured revolving credit facility[127]. - Net working capital liability as of September 30, 2024, was $(255.2) million, a decrease of $160.9 million compared to December 31, 2023[128]. Debt and Equity - Long-term debt decreased by $49.1 million to $1,279.3 million as of September 30, 2024, primarily due to open market repurchases[131]. - Shareholders' equity decreased by $113.1 million in 2024, primarily due to share repurchases and cash dividends paid[131]. - The company had no outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility as of September 30, 2024[127]. Market Conditions - The average price of WTI crude oil for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $75.10 per barrel, down from $82.26 per barrel in the same period of 2023, representing a decrease of approximately 14.5%[99]. - The average price of natural gas (NYMEX) for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $2.09 per MMBTU, down from $2.58 per MMBTU in the same period of 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 19%[99]. - A 10% increase in benchmark prices of commodities would have increased the net payable associated with derivative contracts by approximately $2.5 million[150]. Capital Expenditures - Total capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were $776.6 million, down from $885.7 million in the same period of 2023[124]. - Net cash required by investing activities decreased by $88.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, primarily due to lower property additions and dry hole costs[122]. - Net cash required by financing activities increased by $61.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, mainly due to share repurchases and cash dividends[126].