Core Insights - Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, 2025, with an estimated profit of $6.6 per share and revenues of $5.1 billion [1][9] Group 1: Recent Performance - In the last reported quarter, MUSA's earnings were $7.36 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.82, attributed to higher fuel margins, although revenues of $5 billion fell short by $468 million [2] - MUSA has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 1.9% [3] Group 2: Future Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has increased by 2.8% in the past week, but indicates an 8.3% year-over-year decrease, while revenues are projected to decline by 2% compared to the previous year [3][9] - Total revenues for the upcoming quarter are expected to decrease from $5.24 billion in the same quarter last year, with total cost of goods sold anticipated to rise to $4.7155 billion from $4.6168 billion [5] Group 3: Operational Factors - MUSA anticipates challenges in the second half of the year, with volumes potentially falling below the annual guidance range of 240,000 to 245,000 average per store per month, and headwinds from key categories like cigarettes and lottery [5] - On a positive note, MUSA has over 45 new stores under construction, which is expected to enhance growth prospects for the end of 2025 and into 2026, with plans for 15 to 20 additional new store openings [6] Group 4: Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for MUSA this quarter, as the Earnings ESP is -2.50%, indicating a lower likelihood of surpassing earnings expectations [7]

Core Points - Murphy USA's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Galagher Jeff, has resigned as of October 14, 2024, after a brief tenure that began earlier in the year [2][3][4] - The resignation follows a financially challenging year for Murphy USA, which saw revenue declines due to significant investments in new store development and a recent layoff of about 100 corporate employees [3][4] - Donald Smith Jr., who has been with Murphy USA since 2013, has been appointed as the interim CFO, with no immediate plans announced for a permanent replacement [6] Financial Performance - Murphy USA experienced revenue declines in 2024, attributed to heavy investments in new store development [3] - The company laid off approximately 100 corporate team members as part of efforts to enhance operational effectiveness [3] Leadership Changes - Galagher Jeff's departure is confirmed not to be due to any disagreements regarding the company's operations or financial performance [4] - Donald Smith Jr. has taken over as interim CFO, having previously served as VP and controller since the company's spin-off from Murphy Oil [6]

Core Insights - Argent Capital Management purchased 43,216 shares of Murphy USA, valued at approximately $17.11 million, as disclosed in SEC filings on October 14, 2025 [2][3][10] - Following this transaction, Argent's total holdings in Murphy USA reached 130,640 shares, worth $50.72 million at the end of the quarter [2][3] Company Overview - Murphy USA reported a total revenue of $19.48 billion and a net income of $490.50 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] - The company's dividend yield stands at 0.52%, with shares priced at $375.91 as of October 13, 2025 [4] - Murphy USA operates 1,679 retail gasoline stores primarily in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest regions of the United States [5] Performance Metrics - As of October 13, 2025, Murphy USA's stock price had decreased by 23.19% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 37.15 percentage points [3] - Despite the apparent financial challenges, Murphy USA is reinvesting earnings into expansion, with plans to open 50 new stores within a year [7][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented strong cost control measures and increased dividends in August 2025, indicating a focus on financial stability and growth [7] - Murphy USA's partnership with Walmart is expected to drive customer traffic to its gas stations, potentially improving future financial performance [9]

Core Insights - Murphy USA Inc. will release its third quarter 2025 earnings results on October 29, 2025, after market close, followed by a conference call on October 30, 2025 [1] Company Overview - Murphy USA is a leading retailer of gasoline and convenience merchandise with over 1,750 stores across the Southwest, Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast United States [2] - The company employs approximately 17,200 individuals and serves around two million customers daily through its retail network in 27 states [2] - Most Murphy USA stores are strategically located near Walmart Supercenters, in addition to standalone stores operating under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands [2] - Murphy USA ranks 231 among Fortune 500 companies [2]

Group 1 - ClearBridge Investments released its second-quarter 2025 investor letter, highlighting volatility in small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 Index rebounding 10% from its November 2024 highs, but underperforming larger-cap peers [1] - The Russell 2000 returned 8.5% for the quarter, while the Russell 1000 Index returned 11.1%, indicating a relative underperformance of small-cap stocks [1] - The investor letter emphasized the importance of stock selection, particularly within the consumer discretionary sector, which faced challenges in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA) experienced a one-month return of -0.92% and a 52-week loss of 27.18%, with a market capitalization of $7.528 billion as of September 12, 2025 [2] - The company reported weaker-than-expected earnings due to lower fuel volumes, rising operating expenses, and a decline in same-store sales, despite an increase in total merchandise sales [3] - Murphy USA's focus on rising fuel margins and low-cost operating discipline, along with investments in store remodels and geographic expansion, are expected to drive consistent growth [3] Group 3 - Murphy USA Inc. was held by 35 hedge fund portfolios at the end of the second quarter, an increase from 33 in the previous quarter, indicating some interest from institutional investors [4] - Despite the potential of Murphy USA as an investment, the company is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with certain AI stocks being viewed as having greater upside potential [4]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the opinions expressed are personal and do not constitute investment advice [1][2][3] - It highlights the importance of conducting independent research and analysis before making investment decisions [1][3][4] - The content is presented as opinion pieces without any solicitation for specific securities [1][3] Group 2 - There is a clear disclosure that the author has no current or planned positions in the mentioned companies [2] - The article does not guarantee future performance based on past results [4] - It notes that the views expressed may not reflect those of the platform as a whole [4]

Core Insights - Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) reported second-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $7.36, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.82 and slightly down from the previous year's profit of $6.92, primarily driven by higher fuel margins [1][10] - The company's operating revenues totaled $5 billion, reflecting an 8.2% year-over-year decline and missing the consensus estimate by $468 million due to lower petroleum product sales [1][10] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from petroleum product sales were $3.9 billion, significantly below the estimated $4.2 billion and down 11.3% from the second quarter of 2024 [2] - Merchandise sales reached $1.1 billion, marking a 1.1% increase year over year [2] Fuel Contribution Analysis - Total fuel contribution increased by 0.7% year over year to $393 million, attributed to higher retail contributions and margin expansion, with total fuel contribution at 32 cents per gallon, up 1% from the previous year [3] - Retail fuel contribution decreased by 1.7% year over year to $359.1 million, with margins narrowing to 29.2 cents per gallon from 29.7 cents in the same period of 2024 [4] Merchandise Performance - Contribution from merchandise rose by 1% to $218.7 million, despite flat unit margins at 20% year over year [5] - On a same-store sales (SSS) basis, total merchandise contribution fell by 0.9% year over year, primarily due to a 2.4% decline in non-nicotine margins [5] Operational Metrics - Monthly fuel gallons sold decreased by 2.3% compared to the prior year, while merchandise sales saw a 0.7% decline on an average per-store monthly basis [6] - As of June 30, Murphy USA operated 1,766 retail locations, having opened six new stores and closed one [7] Financial Position - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of $54.1 million and long-term debt of $2.1 billion, resulting in a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 76.2% [7] - During the quarter, MUSA repurchased shares worth $211.9 million [7]

[Part I – Financial Information](index=3&type=section&id=Part%20I%20%E2%80%93%20Financial%20Information) [Item 1. Financial Statements (Unaudited)](index=3&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements%20(Unaudited)) The unaudited statements detail the company's financial position, performance, and cash flows for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=3&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) The statements show stable performance with total assets growing to $4.62 billion and Q2 2025 net income at $145.6 million Consolidated Balance Sheets | Financial Metric | June 30, 2025 (unaudited) | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Assets** | $4,622.2 million | $4,541.6 million | | **Total Liabilities** | $3,976.1 million | $3,701.5 million | | **Total Stockholders' Equity** | $646.1 million | $840.1 million | Consolidated Statements of Income | Metric (in millions, except EPS) | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Operating Revenues** | $5,005.0 | $5,451.7 | $9,530.4 | $10,295.4 | | **Net Income** | $145.6 | $144.8 | $198.8 | $210.8 | | **Diluted EPS** | $7.36 | $6.92 | $9.95 | $10.02 | Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows | Cash Flow Activity (in millions) | Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 | Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net cash from operating activities** | $383.6 | $396.8 | | **Net cash used in investing activities** | $(204.3) | $(189.4) | | **Net cash used in financing activities** | $(172.2) | $(245.4) | [Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements](index=10&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) Notes detail business operations, revenue sources, debt structure, legal contingencies, and segment reporting - The company markets refined products through a network of **1,766 retail stores** under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands as of June 30, 2025[23](index=23&type=chunk) Revenue by Source | Revenue Source (in millions) | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Petroleum product sales | $3,851.4 | $4,340.5 | $7,341.2 | $8,152.2 | | Merchandise sales | $1,092.4 | $1,080.4 | $2,091.8 | $2,081.1 | | Other operating revenues (incl. RINs) | $61.2 | $30.8 | $97.4 | $62.1 | - Total long-term debt, net of current maturities, increased to **$2,066.7 million** at June 30, 2025, from $1,832.7 million at December 31, 2024, primarily due to a refinancing that included a new term loan[56](index=56&type=chunk) - Under a share repurchase authorization of up to **$1.5 billion** (expiring Dec 31, 2028), approximately **$578.0 million remained available** as of June 30, 2025[93](index=93&type=chunk) - The company is a defendant in lawsuits filed by the City of Charleston, South Carolina, and the State of Delaware, which allege damages as a result of **climate change**[117](index=117&type=chunk) - The company's operations are managed as a **single reportable segment, "Marketing,"** which includes retail motor fuel and convenience merchandise sales, as well as wholesale operations[130](index=130&type=chunk) [Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)](index=31&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Management analyzes financial performance, highlighting volatile fuel margins, capital allocation, and liquidity [Executive Overview and Business Trends](index=31&type=section&id=Executive%20Overview%20and%20Business%20Trends) The business is heavily influenced by volatile fuel margins, with a 2025 capital plan of $450-$500 million - Total fuel contribution (retail fuel margin plus product supply & wholesale results including RINs) was **32.0 cents per gallon (cpg)** in Q2 2025, compared to 31.7 cpg in Q2 2024[150](index=150&type=chunk) - The company anticipates total capital expenditures for the full year 2025 to range from approximately **$450 million to $500 million**[153](index=153&type=chunk) - The ongoing effective tax rate for the remainder of 2025 is estimated to be between **23% and 25%**[155](index=155&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=33&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) Q2 2025 revenues fell 8.2% to $5.0 billion, though net income rose slightly due to higher fuel contributions Key Performance Indicators | Metric (in millions) | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Income** | $145.6 | $144.8 | +0.6% | $198.8 | $210.8 | -5.7% | | **Diluted EPS** | $7.36 | $6.92 | +6.4% | $9.95 | $10.02 | -0.7% | - Q2 2025 revenues **decreased by $0.5 billion (8.2%)** compared to Q2 2024, primarily due to a 12.2% reduction in the average retail fuel sales price[160](index=160&type=chunk) - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses for Q2 2025 **decreased by $8.2 million (13.9%)** versus Q2 2024, mainly due to lower professional fees and incentive costs[163](index=163&type=chunk) Contribution Analysis | Key Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Fuel Contribution** | $393.0M | $390.3M | $680.3M | $676.4M | | **Retail Fuel Volume (Million gal)** | 1,229.3 | 1,231.6 | 2,360.5 | 2,384.7 | | **Total Merchandise Contribution** | $218.7M | $216.5M | $414.6M | $408.1M | [Capital Resources and Liquidity](index=40&type=section&id=Capital%20Resources%20and%20Liquidity) The company managed liquidity through a recent refinancing and continued share repurchases of $363.8 million in H1 2025 - Net cash provided by operating activities **decreased by $13.2 million (3.3%)** to $383.6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024[197](index=197&type=chunk) - During the six months ended June 30, 2025, the company **repurchased 791,827 common shares for approximately $363.8 million**[200](index=200&type=chunk)[202](index=202&type=chunk) - A refinancing effective April 7, 2025, provided a **new $600 million senior secured term loan** due 2032 and a **$750 million revolving credit facility**[209](index=209&type=chunk) Capital Spending Breakdown | Capital Spending (in millions) | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Company stores** | $140.3 | $156.5 | | **Maintenance capital** | $28.3 | $32.4 | | **Total** | $176.6 | $205.2 | [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=45&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) The company faces market risks from commodity price volatility and interest rate fluctuations on its debt - The company has market risk exposure related to the **volatility in the price of refined products**, which affects revenues and costs[224](index=224&type=chunk) - Interest rate risk exists due to a **$600 million floating-rate term loan** and **$88.0 million of outstanding borrowings** under the revolving credit facility, both tied to variable rates like SOFR[226](index=226&type=chunk) [Controls and Procedures](index=46&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management concluded that disclosure controls and internal controls over financial reporting were effective - Management concluded that **disclosure controls and procedures were effective** as of June 30, 2025[228](index=228&type=chunk) - There were **no changes in internal control over financial reporting** during the quarter that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, these controls[229](index=229&type=chunk) [Part II – Other Information](index=47&type=section&id=Part%20II%20%E2%80%93%20Other%20Information) [Legal Proceedings](index=47&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) The company is involved in routine legal matters, including climate change lawsuits not expected to be material - The company is a defendant in lawsuits filed by the City of Charleston, SC, and the State of Delaware alleging **damages from climate change**[231](index=231&type=chunk) [Risk Factors](index=47&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) No material changes or additions to risk factors were identified since the last annual report - **No additional risk factors** were identified beyond those disclosed in the most recent Form 10-K[232](index=232&type=chunk) [Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities](index=47&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) The company repurchased 470,708 shares for approximately $209.9 million during the second quarter of 2025 Quarterly Share Repurchase Activity | Period (2025) | Total Shares Purchased | Average Price Paid | Value Remaining in Plan | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | April | 93,952 | $488.67 | $741.9M | | May | 274,583 | $442.99 | $620.3M | | June | 102,173 | $413.99 | $578.0M | | **Q2 Total** | **470,708** | **$445.81** | **$578.0M** |

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter results reflect a 3.2% decline in same-store fuel volumes, with July volumes rebounding to 100% of prior year levels [6][14] - Retail fuel margins improved by 50 basis points in 2024, with an 80 basis point year-to-date improvement and an additional 13 basis points from lower credit card fees [11][12] - The effective tax rate for the first half was 22%, with expectations for the second half to be within the guided range of 24% to 26% [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-combustible nicotine categories are growing at a rate that offsets the decline in cigarette margins, which represent only 30% of total nicotine margin contribution [8] - Merchandise contribution increased by 8.9% for the quarter, excluding cigarettes and lottery, driven by strength in candy and packaged beverages [10][15] - Average per store month food and beverage sales at QuickChek have been positive for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong traffic [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fuel prices remain range-bound despite geopolitical events, contributing to a lower price and less volatile environment [6] - The company outpaced OPUS volumes in each of its markets for the full quarter, despite a deceleration in June [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining store profitability through operational cost improvements and a robust new store pipeline, with plans to deliver 50 new stores over the next twelve months [12][19] - The capital allocation strategy remains a fifty-fifty approach, balancing growth investments and shareholder returns [90][91] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the second half of the year, particularly regarding nicotine contributions and the impact of FDA crackdowns on illicit products [8][63] - The company is well-positioned to weather lower demand cycles while maintaining a focus on long-term growth and operational efficiencies [49][51] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 471,000 shares in the second quarter, with year-to-date repurchases nearing 900,000 shares [20] - The new store construction pipeline is robust, with over 45 new stores in construction for Q3, indicating strong future growth potential [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in gallons and market share - Management noted that trends worsened partly due to a different same-store base and that margins improved despite lower volumes [31][32] Question: Guidance on EBITDA - Management reiterated that while they do not provide EBITDA guidance, operational efficiencies are expected to offset merchandise pressures [34][36] Question: Store build confidence - Management highlighted that bottlenecks have been addressed, leading to confidence in meeting store build targets [40][41] Question: Demand environment and cost flexibility - Management discussed the importance of consumer price sensitivity and the ability to optimize costs in a lower demand environment [45][48] Question: Merchandise contribution growth - Management expressed confidence in achieving guidance due to strong performance in non-cigarette categories and initiatives to drive customer engagement [55][59] Question: Share repurchases and capital allocation - Management clarified that leverage is balanced between growth and shareholder returns, maintaining a focus on their fifty-fifty capital allocation strategy [89][91] Question: Competitive landscape and fuel volume trends - Management indicated no significant differences in customer behavior between Walmart and non-Walmart locations, with competitive pressures being consistent across markets [96][97]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, same store fuel volumes decreased by 3.2%, but July volumes rebounded to 100% of prior year levels [6][14] - The company expects to be at or slightly below the low end of its annual guidance range of 240,000 to 245,000 average per store month for fuel volumes [14] - Merchandise contribution margin is projected to be within the low end of the guided range of $855 million to $875 million, with Q2 merchandising contribution at Murphy USA branded stores up 8.9% excluding cigarettes and lottery [15][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-combustible nicotine categories are growing at a rate that offsets the decline in cigarette margins, which represent only 30% of total nicotine margin contribution [7] - Average per store month food and beverage sales at QuickChek have been positive for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance despite industry challenges [8] - Merchandise contribution increased by 8.9% for the quarter, driven by strength in candy and packaged beverages [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail fuel margins improved by 50 basis points in 2024 and are seeing an 80 basis point improvement year-to-date in 2025 [11] - The company outpaced OPUS volumes in each of its markets for the full quarter, indicating a competitive position despite overall market challenges [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining store profitability through operational cost improvements and is excited about the quality of its new store pipeline, with plans to deliver 50 new stores over the next twelve months [12][19] - The capital allocation strategy remains a fifty-fifty approach, balancing growth investments and shareholder returns, with a commitment to share repurchases [20][91] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term potential of the business, particularly in connection with a $1.3 billion EBITDA target for 2028, despite some metrics being slower than anticipated [21][22] - The company is managing costs effectively in a challenging demand environment, with a focus on maintaining a low-cost operating model [54] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 471,000 shares in Q2, bringing year-to-date repurchases to nearly 900,000 shares, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [20] - The effective tax rate for the first half was 22%, with expectations for the second half to be within the guided range of 24% to 26% [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in gallons and market share - Management noted that trends worsened partly due to a different same store base and that margins improved despite lower volumes [30][31] Question: Guidance reiteration - Management confirmed that while they do not provide EBITDA guidance, they are managing offsets between merchandise pressure and operational expenses effectively [34] Question: Store build confidence - Management highlighted that bottlenecks have been addressed, and the pipeline for new stores is robust, with confidence in meeting the target of 40 new stores in 2025 [38][42] Question: Demand environment and cost flexibility - Management discussed the importance of consumer price sensitivity and the ability to optimize costs in response to lower demand [46][49] Question: Merchandise contribution growth - Management expressed confidence in achieving growth in merchandise contribution, driven by strong performance in specific categories and initiatives to increase customer loyalty [58][60] Question: Fuel volume trends and competitive landscape - Management indicated no significant differences in customer behavior between Walmart and non-Walmart locations and noted competitive pressures in certain markets [96][98]