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National CineMedia (NCMI) reported $63.4 million in revenue for the quarter ended September 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.6%. EPS of $0 for the same period compares to -$0.04 a year ago.The reported revenue represents a surprise of -1.14% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $64.13 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.03, the EPS surprise was +100%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wal ...

National CineMedia (NCMI) reported break-even quarterly earnings per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.03. This compares to a loss of $0.04 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +100.00%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this theater advertising company would post a loss of $0.11 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.11, delivering no surprise.Over the last four quarters, the com ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $63.4 million, up 2% year-over-year, and within the guidance range of $62 million to $67 million [14][15] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $10.2 million, exceeding $8.8 million in the same period last year [18] - National advertising revenue totaled $49.9 million, up 6.6% from $46.8 million in the prior year [15] - Total operating expenses decreased to $65.2 million from $69.9 million in the same period last year [18] - Free cash flow for the quarter was negative $1.8 million, an improvement from negative $2.4 million in the prior year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Programmatic revenue grew approximately four times compared to last year, marking the strongest programmatic quarter ever [6][7] - Self-serve platform revenue increased by 23% quarter-over-quarter, driven by expanded outreach [7] - Platinum revenue was up 19% year-over-year, achieving the highest third-quarter Platinum sales in NCM's history [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - NCM's quarterly audience was 109 million, down 11% compared to Q3 2024, reflecting a decline in overall attendance [4][5] - National revenue per attendee was $0.46, up 20% year-over-year, the highest in the last five years [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its programmatic and self-serve advertising capabilities to capture a greater share of the advertising market [6][7] - NCM is enhancing its local sales organization and refining its structure to better align with market opportunities [8] - The company is optimistic about upcoming tentpole releases, which are expected to drive attendance and related revenues [12][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that advertiser sentiment stabilized in Q3, with a rebound in demand across key advertising categories [4] - The company expects sustained momentum through year-end, driven by a strong holiday film slate [12][23] - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory for 2026, anticipating a strong box office and attendance [41][42] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share, amounting to $2.8 million, to be paid on November 26, 2025 [21] - NCM has repurchased 3.3 million shares at an average price of $5.78 year-to-date, with additional shares repurchased post-quarter end [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the programmatic and ad categories adopting that format? - Management highlighted that programmatic revenue was four times higher than last year, with most new clients coming from various segments [26][27] Question: Is the renewal with AMC Theatres affecting profit growth? - Management explained that the extra week in Q4 would lead to higher theater access fees, impacting margins [28] Question: Are advertisers waiting to commit to campaigns for new IP? - Management indicated that advertisers generally buy impressions across various movies, not specifically avoiding new IP [34][36] Question: What is the outlook for 2026? - Management expressed optimism for 2026, citing good momentum from Q3 into Q4 and expected growth in box office and attendance [41][42]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 increased by $1.0 million, or 1.6%, to $63.4 million compared to Q3 2024's $62.4 million[142]. - National advertising revenue rose by $3.1 million, or 6.6%, from $46.8 million in Q3 2024 to $49.9 million in Q3 2025, driven by a 41.9% increase in national advertising utilization[144]. - Local and regional advertising revenue decreased by $1.8 million, or 15.8%, from $11.4 million in Q3 2024 to $9.6 million in Q3 2025 due to reduced contract activity in several categories[145]. - Total theater attendance fell by 10.6% from 121.6 million in Q3 2024 to 108.7 million in Q3 2025[143]. - Adjusted OIBDA for Q3 2025 was $10.2 million, up from $8.8 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a 15.9% increase[140]. - Adjusted OIBDA margin improved to 16.1% in Q3 2025 from 14.1% in Q3 2024[140]. - Net income attributable to NCM, Inc. was $1.6 million in Q3 2025, a significant improvement from a net loss of $3.6 million in Q3 2024, representing a 144.4% increase[142]. - Operating loss decreased to $1.8 million in Q3 2025 from $7.5 million in Q3 2024, marking a 76.0% improvement[140]. - Total revenue per attendee increased by 13.7% from $0.513 in Q3 2024 to $0.583 in Q3 2025[143]. - Total revenue decreased by $4.5 million, or 2.9%, from $154.5 million for the nine months ended September 26, 2024 to $150.0 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025[155]. - National advertising revenue increased by $0.6 million, or 0.5%, from $117.9 million to $118.5 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025, driven by a 17.0% increase in national advertising utilization[157]. - Local and regional advertising revenue decreased by $5.7 million, or 21.5%, from $26.5 million to $20.8 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025, primarily due to decreased contract activity[158]. Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses decreased by $4.7 million, or 6.7%, from $69.9 million in Q3 2024 to $65.2 million in Q3 2025[147]. - Theater exhibition fees decreased by $0.6 million, or 1.8%, from $32.9 million in Q3 2024 to $32.3 million in Q3 2025, primarily due to a 10.6% decrease in network attendance[148][149]. - Selling and marketing costs remained stable at $10.1 million for both Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, with a $0.5 million decrease in personnel-related costs offset by a $0.3 million increase in variable costs[150]. - Administrative and other costs decreased by $2.3 million, or 17.8%, from $12.9 million in Q3 2024 to $10.6 million in Q3 2025, mainly due to a reduction in legal and professional fees[151]. - Depreciation expense decreased by $0.1 million, or 8.3%, from $1.2 million in Q3 2024 to $1.1 million in Q3 2025[152]. - Amortization expense decreased by $1.6 million, or 16.8%, from $9.5 million in Q3 2024 to $7.9 million in Q3 2025[153]. - Total operating expenses for the nine months ended September 25, 2025 decreased by $6.2 million, or 3.2%, from $193.9 million to $187.7 million[160]. - Selling and marketing costs increased by $1.0 million, or 3.4%, from $29.6 million to $30.6 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025[163]. - Administrative and other costs decreased by $5.8 million, or 14.6%, from $39.8 million to $34.0 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025[164]. - Depreciation expense decreased by $0.1 million, or 2.9%, from $3.4 million to $3.3 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025[165]. - Amortization expense decreased by $2.9 million, or 10.2%, from $28.4 million to $25.5 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025[166]. - Total non-operating expense decreased by $5.4 million, or 71.1%, from $7.6 million to $2.2 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025[167]. Cash Flow and Financing - Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities decreased by $45.3 million from $75.2 million to $29.9 million as of September 25, 2025[174]. - Operating cash flow significantly decreased to $0.1 million from $29.8 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025[176]. - NCM LLC has no outstanding borrowings under the 2025 Credit Facility as of September 25, 2025, with a total capacity of $45.0 million[172]. - The available cash amount to NCM, Inc. for the three months ended September 25, 2025, was approximately positive $7.1 million[178]. - Cash provided by operating activities decreased by $29.7 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to an $18.7 million decrease in deferred revenue and a $7.3 million decrease in accounts receivable collections[180]. - Cash used by investing activities increased by $2.9 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025, attributed to a $2.0 million increase in purchases of cost method investments and a $0.4 million increase in purchases of intangible assets[180]. - Cash used in financing activities increased by $27.4 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025, mainly due to $10.0 million repayments of both the 2023 and 2025 Revolving Credit Facilities and an $8.2 million increase in dividend payments[180]. - As of September 25, 2025, NCM LLC owed NCM, Inc. $21.9 million in deferred available cash distributions[181]. - NCM, Inc. plans to utilize cash balances and future cash distributions to fund payments related to the TRA, stock repurchases, and future dividends, with the timing and amount at the discretion of the Board of Directors[182]. - The maximum capacity under the 2025 Credit Facility is $45.0 million, with a floating interest rate that could increase cash interest expense by approximately $0.5 million for a 100-basis point fluctuation if fully drawn[185]. - The company expects to make a TRA payment in 2026 for the 2025 tax year, following an estimated TRA payment in 2025 for the 2024 tax year[182]. Agreements and Ownership - The company has long-term exhibitor services agreements (ESAs) with a weighted average remaining term of 12.1 years as of September 25, 2025[125]. - On April 17, 2025, the company entered into a new agreement with AMC, extending the term of the ESA by five years and releasing $21.6 million of the 'Payable under the TRA'[128][129]. - Upon emerging from bankruptcy on August 7, 2023, NCM, Inc. regained 100.0% ownership of NCM LLC, which was reconsolidated into the financial statements[135]. - The company recorded a gain on bankruptcy of $916.4 million for the year ended December 26, 2024[134]. - NCM LLC recorded a gain on deconsolidation of $557.7 million during the second quarter of 2023 due to its Chapter 11 filing[132]. Accounting Policies - There were no significant changes in critical accounting policies as of September 25, 2025[183]. - The company does not anticipate that recent accounting pronouncements will have a material impact on its financial statements[184]. - The company will consider returning a portion of its free cash flow to stockholders, depending on various economic and financial factors[182].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 1.6% to $63.4 million compared to $62.4 million in Q3 2024[3] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $1.6 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, a significant improvement from a net loss of $3.6 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, in Q3 2024[3] - Adjusted OIBDA for Q3 2025 rose to $10.2 million from $8.8 million in Q3 2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency[3] - For the nine months ended September 25, 2025, total revenue decreased by 2.9% to $150.0 million compared to $154.5 million for the same period in 2024[4] - Operating loss for Q3 2025 decreased to $1.8 million from $7.5 million in Q3 2024, indicating improved financial performance[3] - Total revenue for the three months ended September 25, 2025, was $63.4 million, a slight increase from $62.4 million for the same period in 2024, while total revenue for the nine months ended was $150.0 million, down from $154.5 million[25] - National advertising revenue for the three months ended September 25, 2025, was $49.9 million, up 6.6% from $46.8 million in the same period last year, while local and regional advertising revenue decreased to $9.6 million from $11.4 million[25] - Adjusted OIBDA for the three months ended September 25, 2025, was $10.2 million, compared to $8.8 million for the same period in 2024, with an adjusted OIBDA margin of 16.1%[25][33] - The company reported an operating loss of $1.8 million for the three months ended September 25, 2025, an improvement from a loss of $7.5 million in the same period last year[25][33] - Adjusted income per share for the three months ended September 25, 2025, was $0.00, compared to a loss of $0.05 in the same period last year[25] Assets and Equity - Total assets as of September 25, 2025, were $451.9 million, down from $568.6 million as of December 26, 2024[20] - Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities decreased to $32.9 million from $78.2 million as of December 26, 2024[20] - The company reported a decrease in total equity to $350.5 million as of September 25, 2025, compared to $411.2 million at the end of 2024[20] Attendance and Screens - Total attendance for the three months ended September 25, 2025, was 108.7 million, down from 121.6 million in the same period in 2024, while attendance for the nine months ended was 296.4 million, slightly up from 290.2 million[25] - The company had 17,696 total screens at the end of the period, a decrease from 18,141 screens at the end of September 26, 2024[22] - ESA Party attendance for the three months ended September 25, 2025, was 68.2 million, down from 74.3 million in the same period last year[25] Dividends and Future Projections - The company declared a cash dividend of $0.03 per share, totaling approximately $2.8 million, to be paid on November 26, 2025[6] - NCM LLC expects Q4 2025 total revenue to be between $91.0 million and $98.0 million, with Adjusted OIBDA projected in the range of $30.0 million to $35.0 million[7] Adjusted Losses and Costs - Adjusted net loss excluding adjusting items for the nine months ended September 25, 2025, was $34.8 million, an improvement from a loss of $28.6 million for the same period in 2024[38] - Workforce reorganization costs for the nine months ended September 25, 2025, totaled $3.1 million, reflecting changes to the company's workforce[38] - System optimization costs incurred in the third quarter of 2024 amounted to $1.5 million, with an additional $1.8 million for the nine months ended September 25, 2025[39] - The company incurred $5.4 million in advisor and legal fees related to the Cineworld proceeding and Chapter 11 case for the nine months ended September 25, 2025[38] - The loss on re-measurement of the payable under the tax receivable agreement for the nine months ended September 25, 2025, was $1.6 million, compared to a gain of $9.3 million for the same period in 2024[38] - Diluted income per share excluding adjusting items for the nine months ended September 25, 2025, was $(0.37), compared to $(0.30) for the same period in 2024[38] - The weighted average shares outstanding for diluted income per share as reported was 93,701,506 for the three months ended September 25, 2025[38]

Group 1 - National CineMedia, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCMI) is recognized as a hidden penny stock with an average recommendation of "Moderate Buy" from six analysts, with three advising to hold and three issuing a buy rating [1] - CEO F. Lesinski praised the management's resilience and highlighted strategic initiatives, including plans to triple the programmatic footprint by year-end, with programmatic advertiser volume growing over 50% quarter-over-quarter and approximately 70% of second quarter programmatic advertisers being new to NCM [2] - The company is expected to maintain box office momentum with a strong film slate for the remainder of 2025, featuring titles like Wicked for Good, Avatar: Fire & Ash, and Zootopia [3] Group 2 - National CineMedia, Inc. operates cinema advertising networks in North America and was incorporated in 2006, focusing on connecting brands with movie audiences through cinema advertising [4]

Core Insights - National CineMedia (NCMI) reported revenue of $51.8 million for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5.3% and an EPS of -$0.11 compared to -$0.09 a year ago [1] - The reported revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $55 million, resulting in a surprise of -5.82% [1] - The company did not deliver an EPS surprise, with the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.11 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Local and regional advertising revenue was $6.4 million, significantly below the two-analyst average estimate of $9.4 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 34.7% [4] - National advertising revenue reached $41.2 million, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of $43.95 million, with a year-over-year change of -1.2% [4] - Total advertising revenue (excluding beverage) was reported at $47.62 million, compared to the estimated $53.35 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 12.9% [4] - ESA advertising revenue from beverage concessionaire agreements was $4.2 million, exceeding the average estimate of $3.65 million, and showing a year-over-year increase of 31.3% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of National CineMedia have returned +0.9% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Company Performance - National CineMedia (NCMI) reported a quarterly loss of $0.11 per share, consistent with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, compared to a loss of $0.09 per share a year ago [1] - The company posted revenues of $51.8 million for the quarter ended June 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.82%, and down from $54.7 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has lost approximately 28.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 7.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.04 on revenues of $63.4 million, and -$0.05 on revenues of $251.67 million for the current fiscal year [7] - The estimate revisions trend for National CineMedia was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock [6] Industry Context - The Advertising and Marketing industry, to which National CineMedia belongs, is currently in the top 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable industry outlook [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that industry performance can significantly impact individual stock performance [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - National CineMedia's total revenue for Q2 2025 was $51.8 million, which was below the guidance range of $56 million to $61 million and down 5% compared to the prior year [18][19] - Adjusted OIBDA for the second quarter was $700,000, a significant decrease from $7.6 million in the prior year [22] - Operating income was negative $12 million, compared to negative $9.3 million in the same period last year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - National advertising revenue for Q2 2025 was $41.2 million, slightly down from $41.7 million in Q2 2024, with national ad revenue per attendee dropping to $0.36 from $0.45 year-over-year [19] - Local and regional advertising revenue totaled $6.4 million, down from $9.8 million in the previous year, reflecting cautious advertiser sentiment [19][20] - Programmatic advertiser volume grew by over 50% quarter-over-quarter, with approximately 70% of programmatic advertisers being new to NCM [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The scatter market represented 40% of NCM's national on-screen revenue in Q2 2025, with inventory utilization up 12% [19] - Attendance increased by 24% year-over-year, reaching over 115 million individuals across the network in Q2 2025 [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on scaling programmatic and self-serve offerings to capture growing premium video advertising budgets [8] - NCM is enhancing its sales capabilities by onboarding new talent and engaging high-value advertisers at local and regional levels [10] - The company aims to deepen existing advertiser relationships and strategically expand its client base, leveraging the unique value of cinema as a high-impact advertising channel [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging operating environment in Q2 due to advertiser caution in key categories, but expressed optimism for the second half of the year [6][14] - Early indicators for Q3 are encouraging, with booked sales pacing ahead of the same period last year and demand normalizing across key categories [14] - The company expects third-quarter revenue to be between $62 million and $67 million, supported by improved advertiser commitment and sustained theatrical strength [26] Other Important Information - NCM had $40.3 million in cash and equivalents at the end of Q2 2025, with zero outstanding debt [23][24] - The company reinstated a quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share, amounting to $2.8 million, to be paid on August 29, 2025 [25] - Year-to-date total revenue was $86.6 million, down from $92.1 million in the same period last year [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Q3 revenue guidance and potential year-end ad budget flushes - Management noted a more relaxed budgeting environment in Q3 compared to Q2, with significant confidence returning among advertisers [30][32] Question: Expectations for strategic investing in sales and marketing - Management indicated that investments in sales and marketing would be more back-half weighted, with ongoing monitoring of operating expenses [34][35] Question: Clarification on Q3 guidance and demand spillover from Q2 - Management confirmed that the Q3 guidance reflects mostly new business rather than a spillover from paused deals in Q2 [39][40] Question: Feedback on programmatic advertising traction - Management reported significant traction in programmatic advertising, with a high percentage of new advertisers engaging with the platform [42][43] Question: Strategies for increasing visibility with media buyers - Management highlighted the establishment of a new business group focused on acquiring new clients and enhancing awareness of their advertising platform [45][46] Question: Impact of CTV on utilization and CPMs - Management acknowledged CTV as a competitive bucket and indicated plans to build a programmatic platform to compete in that space [68]