由于黄金价格突破3500美元/盎司，创下历史新高，纽曼矿业(NEM.US)股价随之上涨。但麦格理将该矿 业公司的评级从"跑赢大盘"下调至"中性"，并将目标价下调至72美元，原因是自6月底以来该公司股价 上涨了25%。 纽曼矿业今年以来的运营表现也十分出色。麦格理澳大利亚金属与矿业团队指出，这是该公司自2022年 以来首次发布产量指引，但其股价近期的强劲表现似乎表明，这一指引已反映在预期之中。 纽曼矿业在运营和地域方面也实现了多元化，没有任何一项资产的占比超过黄金产量的17%或净资产价 值的15%。麦格理还认为，如果黄金价格保持强劲，该公司利用多余现金进行更多回购的潜力依然存 在，并指出该公司已实现了50亿美元的净债务目标。 麦格理澳大利亚团队将Northern Star Resources列为大型黄金股的首选，取代了纽曼矿业。Northern Star Resources在经历了一段业绩指引引发的波动期后，将进入为期六个月的"平稳期"，这期间该股有望迎来 重估的机遇。 截至周二美股收盘，纽曼矿业涨1.96%，报75.86美元。该股今年以来累计上涨106%。 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions and Tariffs - The U.S. Supreme Court's agreement with a federal appeals court ruling deemed a majority of tariffs instituted by President Trump as illegal, causing market anxiety and pushing gold prices past $3,500 [1] - Investors are moving towards safe haven assets like gold amid ongoing legal challenges regarding tariffs [1] Group 2: Gold Investment Opportunities - The Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) offers investors exposure to rising gold prices with the option to exchange shares for actual bullion [2] - Gold miners are seen as a potential hedge against market corrections, with the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index up almost 90% as companies like Newmont Corporation and Agnico Eagle Mines report strong earnings [6] Group 3: Market Analysis and Historical Context - John Hathaway from Sprott Asset Management draws parallels between current market conditions and past market manias, suggesting that investors should maintain exposure to cash, gold bullion, and gold miners [4][5] - The current market shows signs of extreme concentration and leverage, indicating a potential need for countermeasures like investing in precious metals mining equities [5] Group 4: Investment Vehicles - The Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) is highlighted as a viable option for gaining exposure to leading gold mining companies, tracking the Solactive Gold Miners Custom Factors Index [8]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced broad losses, with major indices retreating as investors adopted a risk-off approach due to concerns over high valuations, seasonal challenges, and fiscal strains [1][2] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged nearly 20% to 19.2, marking its third consecutive advance, indicating increased market fear [1] Major Indices Performance - The Nasdaq 100 led the decline, falling 1.7%, while the S&P 500 decreased by 1.4% in its first session of September, historically the weakest month [2] - The Dow Jones lost over 500 points, or 1.1% [2] - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) slipped 1.5% to $584.49, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) fell 1.1% to $451.04 [6] Sector Performance - Chipmakers were significantly impacted, with NVIDIA Corp. dropping 3.6%, Arm Holdings plc sinking 5%, and ASML Holding NV and Qualcomm Inc. each losing about 3% [2] - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) outperformed, down only 0.3%, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) lagged, down 2% [6] Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated a sixth consecutive month of contraction, suggesting that tariffs meant to protect domestic industries are increasing costs and delaying investments [3] - Safe-haven assets saw strong demand, with gold reaching record highs above $3,500 an ounce and silver surpassing $40 [3] Bond Market Activity - Long-dated yields rose across advanced economies, with 30-year U.S. Treasuries increasing five basis points to 4.97%, just below the 5% mark [4] Notable Stock Movements - Top gainers in the S&P 500 included Ulta Beauty Inc. (+6.45%), Biogen Inc. (+3.84%), and Ralph Lauren Corp (+3.36%) [5] - The worst performers included TransDigm Group Inc. (-7.50%), Constellation Brands Inc. (-6.97%), and Kraft Heinz Co. (-6.96%) [7]

Group 1 - Newmont Corporation (NEM) has experienced a remarkable 85% increase in share price year-to-date in 2025, attributed to a strong gold market environment [1] - The company is currently positioned within a long-term bullish channel, indicating positive market sentiment and potential for continued growth [1]

Company Performance - Newmont Corporation (NEM) closed at $74.40, with a +1.96% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.64% [1] - The stock has increased by 17.5% over the past month, significantly higher than the Basic Materials sector's gain of 4.61% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.91% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect Newmont Corporation to report earnings of $1.27 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 56.79% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $4.92 billion, which represents a 6.75% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $5.3 per share and revenue at $20.68 billion, indicating changes of +52.3% and +10.67% respectively from the prior year [3] Analyst Forecast Revisions - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Newmont Corporation are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive changes indicating analyst optimism [4] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows Newmont Corporation currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 3.87% [6] Valuation Metrics - Newmont Corporation has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.77, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 13.32 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.86, while the Mining - Gold industry average PEG ratio is 0.65 [7] Industry Context - The Mining - Gold industry is part of the Basic Materials sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 77, placing it in the top 32% of over 250 industries [8]

Core Insights - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) and Newmont Corporation (NEM) are leading companies in the gold mining sector, with diversified operations and portfolios, making them relevant for investors amid firm gold prices driven by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions [1][2]. Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have increased approximately 29% this year, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, before settling around $3,400 per ounce [2]. - Central banks globally are accumulating gold reserves, influenced by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts, which are expected to support gold prices [2]. Agnico Eagle's Position - Agnico Eagle is focused on growth projects, including the Odyssey project and others, which are expected to enhance production and cash flows [4]. - The Hope Bay Project has proven and probable mineral reserves of 3.4 million ounces, contributing significantly to future cash flow [5]. - The merger with Kirkland Lake Gold has positioned Agnico Eagle as a high-quality senior gold producer with a strong pipeline of development projects [6]. - AEM reported operating cash flow of $1,845 million in Q2, a 92% increase from $961 million year-over-year, and free cash flow of $1,305 million, more than double the previous year's figure [7][8]. - The company reduced long-term debt by $550 million to $595 million and ended the quarter with a net cash position of $963 million [9]. - AEM offers a dividend yield of 1.2% with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 6.9% and a payout ratio of 27%, indicating a sustainable dividend [10]. Newmont's Position - Newmont has strengthened its portfolio through the acquisition of Newcrest Mining and a $3 billion divestiture program, enhancing liquidity and operational efficiency [12][14]. - The company is pursuing growth projects like the Tanami Expansion 2 and Ahafo North expansion, which are expected to drive revenue and profit growth [13]. - Newmont's liquidity at the end of Q2 was $10.2 billion, with free cash flow reaching $1.7 billion, a significant increase year-over-year [17]. - The company returned approximately $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced debt by $1.4 billion [18]. - Newmont's long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio is around 18.8%, and it offers a dividend yield of 1.4% with a payout ratio of 20% [18]. Financial Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, AEM stock has increased by 78.4%, while NEM stock has risen by 94.5%, compared to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 82.3% [21]. - AEM is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.01, representing a 41.5% premium over the industry average, while NEM is at 13.74, below its five-year median [23][24]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM's 2025 sales and EPS indicates growth of 30.6% and 64.1%, respectively, while NEM's estimates imply growth of 10.7% and 52.3% [26][27]. Investment Considerations - Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from strong gold prices, but AEM's higher earnings growth projections and healthier dividend growth rate suggest it may offer better investment prospects [28][29]. - AEM's lower leverage indicates lesser financial risks, making it a more favorable option for investors seeking exposure to the gold sector [29].

Core Viewpoint - After acquiring Newcrest Mining Ltd. for $15 billion in 2023, Newmont Corporation is exploring cost-cutting measures that may lead to significant layoffs due to rising operational costs [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition and Expansion - The acquisition increased Newmont's gold mines to approximately 20 and expanded its copper operations, but it also resulted in sharply rising costs [1]. - Newmont's all-in sustaining costs for gold reached a historical high by early 2025, significantly eroding record profits from soaring gold prices [1]. Group 2: Cost-Cutting Measures - Newmont has requested management to control costs at the lowest industry levels, aiming to reduce the cost per ounce of gold by about $300, which represents a 20% decrease [1][3]. - Although specific layoff numbers are not disclosed, sources indicate that thousands of employees may be affected as part of the cost-cutting strategy [3]. - The company has initiated a cost and productivity enhancement plan, with organizational restructuring being one of several measures to reduce operational costs [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Context - The surge in gold prices, reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce in April, has led to significant gains for large mining companies, with Newmont's stock price increasing by 95% this year [3]. - Over the past five years, Newmont's all-in sustaining costs have risen by over 50% due to increases in energy, labor, and raw material prices, with its second-quarter costs being nearly 25% higher than those of lower-cost producers like Agnico Eagle Mines [3]. - Despite stating that costs are within expected ranges for the year, an increase is anticipated in the second half [3]. Group 4: Challenges Post-Acquisition - The current cost challenges faced by Newmont are primarily attributed to the acquisition of Newcrest, with specific mines like Lihir in Papua New Guinea and Cadia in Australia struggling with cost control [4]. - Analysts note that Newcrest's assets are in difficult phases of their lifecycle, requiring substantial maintenance capital expenditures to catch up on long-term capacity due to previous underinvestment [4].

Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner, is studying significant job cuts as part of a cost-saving plan, sources say https://t.co/5C03hSFuxK ...

Nationally ranked stock picker for 30 years. Victory Formation and Bottom Fishing Club quant-sort pioneer.....Paul Franke is a private investor and speculator with 39 years of trading experience. Mr. Franke was Editor and Publisher of the Maverick Investor® newsletter during the 1990s, widely quoted by CNBC®, Barron’s®, the Washington Post® and Investor’s Business Daily®. Paul was consistently ranked among top investment advisors nationally for stock market and commodity macro views by Timer Digest® during ...

期货研究报告|有色与贵金属专题报告 2025-08-26 主要银矿开采商产量跟踪报告及金银比价复盘 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 021-60828513 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 近期市场背景及主要白银矿企业情况汇总 当前几大主要白银生产商整体呈"原生矿增量收紧、白银增量依赖伴生"的特点。Fresnillo 25H1 权益银产量 24.9 百万盎司，同比-8% 以上，受 San Julián DOB 接近关停、 Silverstream 退出与主矿区递减及安全事故扰动，但仍维持全年 49–56 百万盎司指引； KGHM 上半年 657 吨，同比-3%，矿石处理量与外购/进料缩减，Sierra Gorda 年中扩 建是后续潜在增量；Newmont 上半年 1,400 万盎司，同比-18%，前期罢工低基数效应 消失且 Peñasquito 采矿序列对白银生产产生了负面影响， ...