Core Viewpoint - Nomad Foods (NOMD) has experienced significant selling pressure, resulting in a 10.7% decline over the past four weeks, but analysts anticipate better earnings than previously expected, indicating potential for recovery [1]. Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is utilized to determine if NOMD is oversold, with a reading of 27.07 suggesting that heavy selling may be exhausting, leading to a possible price rebound [2][5]. - Stocks oscillate between overbought and oversold conditions, and the RSI helps identify potential reversal points, making it a useful tool for investors seeking entry opportunities [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - There is a consensus among sell-side analysts that earnings estimates for NOMD have increased by 2.9% over the last 30 days, which typically correlates with price appreciation [7]. - NOMD holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further supporting the potential for a turnaround [8].

Group 1 - The investment strategy focuses on long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational and buy-and-hold perspective [1] - The approach does not prioritize market-driven dynamics or future price action, instead emphasizing the long-term earnings potential of companies [1] - The majority of recommendations will be holds, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions and a belief that only a small fraction of companies are suitable for buying at any given time [1] Group 2 - The articles aim to provide valuable information for future investors while maintaining a healthy skepticism towards a generally bullish market [1] - The author emphasizes the importance of conducting due diligence and seeking professional investment advice before making decisions [2][3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has adjusted its full-year inflation assumption from 4% to 4.5% due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, particularly in the UK [24][25] - The gross margin dropped in Q2, attributed to increased inflation and supply chain challenges [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a significant focus on cost competitiveness, leading to a reduction in SG&A expenses primarily driven by overheads rather than advertising and promotion [30][31] - Innovations and renovations are expected to contribute nearly double the sales compared to the previous year, with a focus on snacking and protein products [32][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market in Q2 experienced a volume decline of approximately 5.5%, particularly in key regions like the UK, due to extreme weather conditions [16][22] - The company has gained market share in volume despite overall market underperformance in categories like fish and vegetables [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is adjusting its ERP implementation strategy to mitigate risks and improve inventory management [7][8] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation, with plans to enhance product offerings in response to changing consumer preferences and weather patterns [34][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate current challenges and emphasized the importance of preparing for future weather-related impacts on sales [50][53] - The company is committed to maintaining flexibility in capital allocation, focusing on share buybacks and dividends while being cautious about M&A opportunities [55] Other Important Information - The company is exploring partnerships with startups to enhance its innovation pipeline and speed up product development [43][45] - There is a focus on optimizing the supply chain and reducing complexity within the operational network to improve cost efficiency [40][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in full-year guidance - Management acknowledged past challenges with guidance and emphasized lessons learned from ERP implementation and inventory management [6][8] Question: Organic growth expectations for Q3 - Management indicated that while growth is expected in Q3, it is contingent on market conditions and weather patterns [17][19] Question: Inflationary pressures and pricing strategy - Management confirmed an increase in inflation assumptions and indicated plans to adjust pricing where feasible [24][26] Question: SG&A savings initiatives - Management detailed ongoing efforts to reduce overhead costs and improve cost competitiveness [30][31] Question: Innovation pipeline and future products - Management highlighted a significant increase in sales from innovation and renovation, with a focus on snacking and protein products [32][34] Question: Supply chain optimization and facility closures - Management discussed plans for supply chain optimization, including the closure of a smaller factory in the Nordics [40][41] Question: Long-term portfolio adjustments for climate change - Management addressed the need to adapt product offerings to changing weather patterns and consumer preferences [50][53] Question: Capital allocation priorities - Management confirmed ongoing share buybacks and dividends while maintaining flexibility for future opportunities [55]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has adjusted its full-year inflation assumption from 4% to 4.5% due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, particularly in the UK [23][24] - There has been a noted drop in gross margin in Q2, attributed to increased inflation and weather-related challenges [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a significant increase in innovation contributions to sales, with expectations for nearly double the previous year's contribution [32][34] - SG&A expenses have been reduced, primarily driven by overhead savings rather than advertising and promotion [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market in Q2 experienced a volume decline of approximately 5.5%, particularly in key regions like the UK, which impacted sales [15][21] - The company has gained market share in volume despite overall market underperformance during the hot weather [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its product assortment to better align with changing consumer preferences during hotter weather, including more natural and marinated fish options [51][54] - There is an emphasis on cost competitiveness and maintaining pricing strategies to recover from inflation while avoiding overpricing compared to competitors [30][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's future despite disappointing first-half performance, citing a strong portfolio and effective strategy [60] - The company is preparing for potential future heat waves by adjusting product offerings and improving supply chain agility [54][51] Other Important Information - The company has conducted share buybacks amounting to €100 million in H1 and announced a dividend, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [56] - The company is exploring partnerships with startups to enhance innovation and speed up product development [44][46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in full-year guidance after recent performance - Management acknowledged past optimism regarding ERP implementation and excess inventory issues, indicating a more cautious approach moving forward [5][6][8] Question: Organic growth expectations for Q3 and Q4 - Management clarified that while growth is expected in Q3, the overall guidance remains conservative due to market conditions [14][16] Question: Impact of ERP supply disruption on sales - Management confirmed that the ERP lag from the previous year will positively affect comparisons, but current market conditions remain challenging [19][20] Question: Inflationary pressures and pricing strategies for 2026 - Management indicated that pricing adjustments will be necessary to recover from inflation, with a focus on maintaining competitiveness [22][26] Question: SG&A savings and overhead expense reductions - Management detailed ongoing initiatives to reduce overhead costs while remaining competitive in pricing [30][31] Question: Innovation pipeline and future products - Management highlighted a significant increase in sales from innovation and renovation, with a focus on snacking and new product categories [32][34] Question: Supply chain optimization and facility closures - Management discussed plans for supply chain optimization, including the closure of a smaller factory in the Nordics [41][42] Question: Long-term strategies for dealing with climate change - Management emphasized the need for agility in product offerings to adapt to changing weather patterns and consumer preferences [49][54] Question: Capital allocation priorities - Management confirmed ongoing share buybacks and dividends while maintaining flexibility for future opportunities [56][57]

Core Viewpoint - Nomad Foods reported quarterly earnings of $0.45 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44 per share, but down from $0.47 per share a year ago, indicating a slight decline in year-over-year earnings [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $847.46 million for the quarter ended June 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.59%, compared to $810.64 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Nomad Foods has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Nomad Foods shares have decreased by approximately 0.4% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 7.1% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating expectations of outperforming the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.74 on revenues of $915.66 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.13 on revenues of $3.64 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Nomad Foods was favorable ahead of the earnings release, suggesting potential positive movements in stock price [6] Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, to which Nomad Foods belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8] - Hain Celestial, another company in the same industry, is expected to report a significant decline in earnings, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.04, reflecting a year-over-year change of -69.2% [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the second quarter, reported net revenues decreased by 0.8% to €747 million, with organic sales declining by 1.1% and volume also declining by 1% [25][26] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 7% year on year to €129 million, while adjusted EPS fell by 9% to €0.40 [30] - Adjusted gross margin contracted by 310 basis points year on year due to higher cost inflation, which more than offset productivity gains [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The chicken portfolio retail sales grew by 52% in the last quarter, with market share reaching 18%, a five percentage point increase from the previous year [14] - Retail sales in the frozen potato category rose by 21% year over year in the UK, gaining 180 basis points of market share [15] - Growth platforms saw net sales increase by 47% in the second quarter and 43% in the first half of the fiscal year [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales in the category posted high single-digit volume declines in key markets such as the UK, France, and Belgium due to unusually warm weather [26] - The frozen food category outpaced overall food volume sales by 60 basis points despite unfavorable weather conditions [11] - Weather-related headwinds negatively impacted frozen food sales by approximately 1% in France and 2% in the top five markets [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to return to organic sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year, assuming normalization of weather conditions [5][22] - Continued investment in advertising, merchandising, and innovation is expected to support long-term growth [12][19] - The company plans to launch new products targeting health-conscious consumers and enhance its portfolio with improved offerings [16][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that 2025 is proving to be a more challenging year due to external headwinds affecting the industry [4] - The company expects full-year organic sales to be flat to minus 2%, a revision from the previous expectation of flat to plus 2% [33] - Despite the challenges, management remains confident in the underlying health of the business and the potential for recovery in the second half of the year [36] Other Important Information - The company has returned substantial cash to shareholders, repurchasing €100 million of shares and paying out over €48 million in dividends, marking a 132% increase compared to the first half of last year [21][31] - The company is focused on controlling costs and enhancing profitability through various self-help actions [24][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic sales growth in the second half of the year? - Management expects organic sales to return to growth in the second half, assuming normal weather conditions [22] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of weather on sales? - The company plans to adjust merchandising and consumer communication to emphasize products that perform better in warm weather [23] Question: What is the outlook for adjusted EBITDA and EPS for the full year? - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline by 3% to 7% year on year, with adjusted EPS guidance revised to €1.64 to €1.76 [35]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 2025, reported net revenues decreased by 0.8% to €747 million, with organic sales declining by 1.1% and volume also down by 1% [24][25] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 7% year on year to €129 million, while adjusted EPS fell by 9% to €0.40 [28][29] - Year-to-date free cash flow grew by 70% year on year, with a conversion ratio of 43% [29][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's growth platforms saw net sales increase by 47% in Q2 and 43% in the first half of the fiscal year [12] - Retail sales for the chicken portfolio grew by 52% in the last quarter, with market share reaching 18%, a five percentage point increase from the previous year [13] - Frozen potato retail sales in the UK rose by 21% year over year, gaining 180 basis points of market share [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales in the category were down by 1% in Q2, with high single-digit volume declines observed in key markets like the UK, France, and Belgium [25][26] - The unusually warm weather negatively impacted consumer behavior, contributing to a 1.5% negative impact on the full-year outlook [26][32] - The frozen food category has outpaced overall food industry growth by nearly one percentage point over the past decade [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to return to organic sales growth in the second half of the year, assuming normal weather conditions [31][35] - Continued investment in advertising, merchandising, and innovation is expected to support long-term growth [11][18] - The company is focused on enhancing profitability through cost savings and productivity improvements [19][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that 2025 is a challenging year, with external headwinds affecting performance [4][5] - Despite the setbacks, management remains optimistic about long-term growth opportunities in the frozen food category [10][20] - The company expects to recover cost increases through pricing actions, although most will not take effect until 2026 [27][32] Other Important Information - The company has returned substantial cash to shareholders, repurchasing €100 million of shares and paying out over €48 million in dividends, marking a 132% increase compared to the first half of last year [20][30] - A new advertising campaign is set to launch in the UK, coinciding with product innovations aimed at younger, health-conscious consumers [18][15] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic sales growth in the second half of the year? - Management expects organic sales to return to growth in the second half, assuming normal weather conditions [31] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of weather on sales? - The company plans to adjust merchandising and consumer communication to emphasize products that perform better in warm weather [22] Question: What are the expectations for adjusted EBITDA and EPS for the full year? - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline by 3% to 7% year on year, with adjusted EPS projected in the range of €1.64 to €1.76 [34]

Core Insights - Nomad Foods Limited reported a challenging second quarter in 2025, with unfavorable weather impacting consumer behavior and sales, leading to a decrease in revenue and profit metrics [2][5][7] - The company has lowered its full-year guidance for organic revenue and Adjusted EBITDA due to weaker-than-expected first half results, now expecting organic revenue to be flat to -2% and Adjusted EBITDA to decline by 3% to 7% year-on-year [5][8] Financial Performance - Revenue for the second quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.8% to €747 million compared to the same period in 2024, with organic revenue declining by 1.1% driven by a volume decline of 1.0% and a price/mix decline of 0.1% [7][8] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter decreased by 7.2% to €129 million, while Adjusted EPS decreased by 9.1% to €0.40 [7][8] - For the first six months of 2025, revenue decreased by 1.9% to €1,507 million, with organic revenue down 2.4% due to a volume decline of 2.3% [8][23] Market Position and Strategy - Despite external challenges, Nomad Foods improved its market share in the quarter, with retail sell-out growth accelerating to +1% for the second quarter, bringing year-to-date growth to +0.7% [2][5] - The company is focusing on innovation and renovation initiatives to drive future growth, with expectations of organic sales returning to growth in the second half of the year, assuming normalized weather conditions [2][5] Guidance and Outlook - The revised full-year guidance includes an expected Adjusted EPS range of €1.64 to €1.76, down from the previous range of €1.82 to €1.89, translating to a USD range of $1.89 to $2.02 based on the July 30, 2025 exchange rate [5][8] - The company maintains its full-year adjusted free cash flow conversion guidance of 90% or greater, indicating a focus on cash generation despite the current challenges [5][8]

Financial Performance - Q2 2025 - Total Revenue was €747 million[19, 21], a decrease of 0.8% year-over-year[21] - Organic revenue declined by 1.1%[9, 19, 21] due to a 1% volume decline[9] - Adjusted Gross Margin contracted by 310 bps year-over-year to 27.8%[9, 19, 21] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 7% year-over-year to €129 million[9, 19, 21] - Adjusted EPS decreased by 9% year-over-year to €0.40[9, 19, 21] Cash Flow - YTD 2025 (6 Months Ended June 30) - Adjusted Free Cash Flow was €49 million[22] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow as a percentage of adjusted profit for the period was 43%[22] compared to 32% in the same period last year[22] Outlook - 2025 Guidance - Organic Revenue growth is expected to be between 0% and -2%[25] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline by 3% to 7% year-over-year[25] - Adjusted EPS is projected to be in the range of €1.64 to €1.76[25] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow Conversion is expected to be 90%+[25]

Core Insights - Investors favor businesses with consistent profitability, measured effectively by net profit margin, which indicates a company's efficiency in converting sales into profits [1][2] - Companies such as Chefs' Warehouse, Perdoceo Education, Adtalem Global Education, and Nomad Foods exhibit strong net profit margins, making them attractive to investors [1][8] Financial Metrics - Net profit margin is calculated as Net Profit/Sales * 100, representing the amount retained after all expenses [2] - A higher net profit margin not only attracts investors but also skilled employees, enhancing overall business value [3] Investment Considerations - A strong net profit margin provides clarity on a company's business model, including pricing, cost structure, and manufacturing efficiency, making it a preferred metric for investors [4] - However, net profit margin varies significantly across industries, and its relevance can diminish for companies that rely heavily on debt financing [5] Screening Criteria - The screening parameters for selecting stocks include a net margin of at least 0%, positive earnings per share (EPS) growth, and a strong broker rating [7] - Stocks like CHEF, PRDO, ATGE, and NOMD were selected based on their strong net margins and favorable EPS growth outlooks, each holding a Zacks Rank of 2 and a VGM Score of A [8] Company Performance - Chefs' Warehouse has seen its 2025 earnings estimate revised upward to $1.75 per share, with a historical average earnings surprise of 11.3% [10] - Perdoceo Education's 2025 earnings estimate increased to $2.52 per share, with an average earnings surprise of 6.2% [12] - Adtalem Global Education maintains a fiscal 2026 earnings estimate of $6.52 per share, with an average earnings surprise of 18.4% [13] - Nomad Foods' 2025 earnings estimate was revised upward to $2.13 per share, with an average earnings surprise of 3.2% [14]