Oddity Tech (ODD) closed the last trading session at $43.14, gaining 0.8% over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $68 indicates a 57.6% upside potential.The mean estimate comprises 11 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $11.73. While the lowest estimate of $46.00 indicates a 6.6% increase from the current price level, the most optimistic analyst expects th ...

Core Insights - The focus is on identifying quality companies at reasonable valuations, emphasizing the importance of fundamentals in driving long-term share prices [1] Group 1 - The investor is inspired by notable figures such as Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and Terry Smith, indicating a preference for established investment philosophies [1] - The strategy involves predicting earnings per share as a key metric for assessing business performance [1]

Company Overview - Oddity Tech, trading under NASDAQ:ODD, is recognized for its innovative beauty brands, Il Makiage and SpoiledChild, which have gained popularity due to their strong online presence and unique product offerings [1] - The company operates in the competitive beauty and skincare industry, facing competition from major players like Estée Lauder and L'Oréal [1] Financial Performance - Oddity's net revenue increased by 24% year over year, reaching $148 million, driven by strong online sales for its brands [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 71.6%, up from 69.9% the previous year, indicating effective cost management [3][6] - Adjusted net income soared by 26% to $25 million, or $0.40 per share, surpassing Wall Street's forecast of $0.35 per share [4][6] Market Activity - Following a price target set by Truist Financial at $80, indicating a potential increase of about 84.71%, ODD shares surged over 10% by midday [2][6] - The current stock price is $39.57, reflecting a 6.49% increase, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.25 billion [5]

Core Insights - Polen Capital's "Polen U.S. Small Cap Growth Strategy" achieved a return of 21.4% gross and 21.1% net of fees in Q3 2025, outperforming the Russell 2000 Growth Index which returned 12.2% [1] Company Overview - Oddity Tech Ltd. (NASDAQ:ODD) is a consumer tech company focused on building digital-first brands in the beauty and wellness sectors [2][3] - The stock of Oddity Tech Ltd. closed at $37.16 on November 19, 2025, with a market capitalization of $2.04 billion [2] Performance Analysis - Oddity Tech Ltd. had a one-month return of -7.51% and a 52-week gain of 1.07% [2] - It was identified as a significant detractor from the portfolio's relative performance in Q3 2025, alongside Carpenter Technology and TransMedics Group [3] Investment Sentiment - Oddity Tech Ltd. was held by 36 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, an increase from 23 in the previous quarter [4] - Despite its potential, the company is not considered among the top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with analysts suggesting that other AI stocks may offer better upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 24% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $148 million in Q3 2025, exceeding guidance of 21% to 23% [16][19] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $0.40, surpassing guidance of $0.33 to $0.36 [18] - Gross margins expanded to 71.6%, up 170 basis points from the previous year, exceeding guidance of 68% [17] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $29 million, above the guidance of $26 million to $28 million [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Il Makiage experienced double-digit online revenue growth, with a target of $1 billion revenue by 2028 [11] - SpoiledChild is expected to generate $225 million in revenue for 2025, indicating strong performance [12] - International revenue increased approximately 40% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with successful scaling in existing markets [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that 83% of revenue still comes from the U.S., with international markets contributing 17% [23] - New geographic expansions include Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, and Denmark, with testing in Japan, Mexico, and Korea [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The launch of Methodic, a new brand focused on dermatology, aims to transform medical care with high-efficacy treatments [5][6] - The company plans to expand Methodic into new medical domains beyond dermatology in the future [7] - Continued investment in technology and innovation, particularly in AI and proprietary datasets, is a key focus for driving direct-to-consumer growth [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging industry backdrop, citing strong repeat customer rates as a buffer against acquisition cost increases [40] - The outlook for 2025 has been raised, with expected net revenue between $806 million and $809 million, representing 24% to 25% year-over-year growth [19] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $793 million in cash and cash equivalents, plus an additional $200 million available on undrawn credit facilities [19] - Methodic's launch includes a significant media campaign, marking the largest TikTok activation in the company's history [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack the 40% year-to-date growth in international markets? - Management noted that 83% of revenue still comes from the U.S., with international growth being strategically important and focused on existing markets [23][24] Question: Thoughts on Methodic's ability to bring in new customers? - Management indicated that Methodic will attract both new and existing customers, with a mixed approach to user acquisition [25][27] Question: How to think about Methodic's brand for 2026? - Expectations are for Methodic to scale faster than SpoiledChild, with a focus on user acquisition and long-term growth [32][34] Question: Views on the health of the U.S. consumer? - Management acknowledged external softness but highlighted strong internal performance and repeat customer growth as mitigating factors [40] Question: Is the growth algorithm for 2026 any different? - No changes to the growth algorithm of 20% revenue growth and 20% adjusted EBITDA margin were indicated [42] Question: How replicable is the data model for international efforts? - Management confirmed a measured approach for Methodic, starting only in the U.S. before considering international expansion [64] Question: Are the molecules for Methodic prescription or non-prescription? - The initial products will be a combination of OTC and cosmetic, with a focus on non-prescription offerings [67][93] Question: What is the total addressable market (TAM) for Methodic? - The TAM is viewed in terms of the number of people suffering from chronic skin conditions, with a focus on improving access and outcomes [84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ODDITY reported a 24% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching $148 million, exceeding guidance of 21% to 23% growth [16][19] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $0.40, surpassing guidance of $0.33 to $0.36 [18] - Gross margins expanded to 71.6%, up 170 basis points from the previous year, exceeding guidance of 68% [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Il Makiage experienced double-digit online revenue growth, with a target of $1 billion revenue by 2028 [11] - SpoiledChild is expected to generate $225 million in revenue for 2025, showing strong performance [12] - METHODIQ, the new brand, aims to launch 28 products addressing various skin conditions, with a focus on dermatology [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue increased approximately 40% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with significant growth in existing markets like the U.K. and Australia [11][24] - The U.S. still accounts for 83% of total revenue, indicating room for international expansion [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ODDITY is focused on expanding its international presence while responsibly managing growth across brands and geographies [23] - The company aims to leverage technology and innovation, particularly through ODDITY Labs, to enhance product offerings and consumer experience [14][52] - METHODIQ is positioned to transform the medical care system by providing high-efficacy treatments without traditional barriers [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges in the industry but emphasized strong financial performance and growth potential [5][16] - The company raised its full-year guidance, expecting net revenue between $806 million and $809 million for 2025, representing 24% to 25% growth [19] - Management remains optimistic about the consumer environment, citing strong repeat purchase rates as a buffer against acquisition cost increases [40] Other Important Information - ODDITY plans to launch a major media campaign for METHODIQ, including a significant TikTok activation [10][89] - The company has a strong cash position with $793 million in cash and equivalents, plus $200 million available on undrawn credit facilities [19][60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack the 40% year-to-date growth in international markets? - Management noted that 83% of revenue still comes from the U.S., with international growth primarily from existing markets like Canada and the U.K. [23][24] Question: How does METHODIQ plan to attract new customers? - METHODIQ is expected to draw customers from existing brands while also focusing on user acquisition [27] Question: What is the growth outlook for Il Makiage and SpoiledChild? - Management aims for sustained 20% growth across brands, with Il Makiage targeting $1 billion by 2028 [75] Question: How is the company addressing higher acquisition costs? - Management highlighted strong repeat purchase rates as a key factor in offsetting higher acquisition costs [40] Question: What is the financial profile of METHODIQ? - METHODIQ is expected to have a similar long-term growth framework as Il Makiage and SpoiledChild, with a focus on repeat business [50] Question: How will the company leverage its physician network for METHODIQ? - The company is currently using third-party networks for physicians and plans to integrate technology to enhance treatment outcomes [67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oddity reported a 24% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $148 million in Q3 2025, exceeding guidance of 21% to 23% [13][14] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $0.40, surpassing guidance of $0.33 to $0.36 [16] - Gross margins expanded to 71.6%, up 170 basis points from the prior year, exceeding guidance of 68% [15] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $29 million, above the guidance of $26 million to $28 million [16] - The company ended the quarter with $793 million in cash and cash equivalents, plus an additional $200 million available on undrawn credit facilities [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Il Makiage experienced double-digit online revenue growth, on track to achieve $1 billion in revenue by 2028 [9] - SpoiledChild is expected to generate $225 million in revenue for 2025, indicating strong performance [10] - International revenue increased approximately 40% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with significant growth in existing markets like the U.K. and Australia [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that 83% of revenue still comes from the U.S., with international markets contributing 17% [20] - New geographic expansions include Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, and Denmark, with testing in Japan, Mexico, and Korea [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The launch of Methodic, a telehealth platform, aims to transform the medical care system, starting with dermatology [5][6] - Methodic is expected to feature 28 products addressing various skin conditions, with a focus on high-efficacy treatments [6][7] - The company plans to continue investing in its long-term growth engines, including Methodic and ODDITY Labs [16][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging industry backdrop, citing strong repeat customer rates as a buffer against acquisition cost increases [36] - The outlook for 2025 has been raised, with expected net revenue between $806 million and $809 million, representing 24% to 25% year-over-year growth [17] - Management remains bullish on Methodic's potential, emphasizing the unique market opportunity it presents [30][31] Other Important Information - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence and proprietary datasets to enhance its direct-to-consumer model [11] - Methodic's launch includes a significant media campaign, marking the largest TikTok activation in the company's history [8][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack the 40% year-to-date growth in international markets? - Management noted that while international growth is strong, 83% of revenue still comes from the U.S., and they plan to responsibly grow in international markets [20][21] Question: How is Methodic expected to drive new customer acquisition? - Management indicated that Methodic will attract both existing and new customers, with a mix of user acquisition strategies [25] Question: What are the expectations for SG&A in the context of the new brand launch? - Management stated that they are not ready to provide specific guidance for 2026 but expect Methodic to scale faster than SpoiledChild [29][32] Question: How does the company view the health of the U.S. consumer? - Management acknowledged softness in the consumer market but highlighted strong revenue and margin performance, driven by repeat customers [36] Question: What is the financial profile of Methodic? - Management expects Methodic to support long-term revenue growth and healthy unit economics, with lower gross margins initially due to prescription costs [44][45] Question: How will the company approach international expansion for Methodic? - Management confirmed that Methodic will initially focus on the U.S. market before considering international expansion [55]

DISCLAIMER This presentation contains estimates and other statistical data made by independent parties and by the Company relating to market size and growth and other data about the Company's industry and estimated total addressable market. This data involves a number of assumptions and limitations, and you are cautioned not to give undue weight to such estimates. Neither the Company nor any other person makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such data or undertakes any obligation to ...

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Core Insights - Oddity Tech reported quarterly earnings of $0.4 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.35 per share, and showing an increase from $0.32 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +14.29% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $147.9 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.27% and up from $119 million year-over-year [2] Financial Performance - Over the last four quarters, Oddity Tech has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates [2] - The company has also topped consensus revenue estimates four times in the last four quarters [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.14 on revenues of $149.14 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.09 on revenues of $804.41 million [7] Market Position - Oddity Tech shares have underperformed the market, losing about 13% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.5% [3] - The Zacks Rank for Oddity Tech is currently 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, to which Oddity Tech belongs, is currently ranked in the top 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]