Core Insights - Weak oil prices are not the primary concern for certain energy stocks, as other factors are contributing to their challenges [1] - The energy sector is experiencing turbulence due to fluctuating commodity prices, particularly in oil and gas [1] Company Summaries Oneok (OKE) - Oneok's share prices have decreased approximately 30% year to date, raising concerns about the effectiveness of recent mergers and acquisitions [3] - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, reflecting a 49% year-over-year increase, indicating potential recovery [4] - If EPS growth does not meet expectations in upcoming quarters, the stock may continue to decline [6] Occidental Petroleum (OXY) - Occidental's recent sale of its OxyChem division to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion has been perceived negatively by investors, leading to a decline in share prices [7] - The sale was an all-cash transaction, which is considered tax-inefficient, and the company is still liable for $1 billion in past environmental liabilities [10] - The stock has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16, but ongoing market concerns may lead to further declines in valuation [10] Williams Companies (WMB) - Williams Companies owns high-quality midstream assets but faces valuation concerns as its shares trade at 27 times forward earnings, higher than competitors like Enbridge and Kinder Morgan [11][13] - The company's share price has fallen by around 10% over the past month, with concerns about its relatively high valuation potentially impacting future performance [14]

Group 1 - ONEOK's quarterly report for Q3 2025 indicates that the stock is a worthy addition to an investment portfolio [1] - The company's net debt has increased from $13.47 billion, suggesting a potential area of concern for investors [1] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of combining macro-economic analysis with real-world trading experience to identify profitable investment opportunities [1] - The goal is to build a high-yield, balanced portfolio primarily focused on the U.S. market [1]

Core Insights - ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is recognized as one of the best high-yield energy stocks to invest in currently [1] - The company reported significant growth in its third-quarter financial results, with net income increasing by over 36% year-over-year [3] Financial Performance - ONEOK's revenue profits showed substantial growth in Q3, driven by robust volumes in the Rocky Mountain region and a series of acquisitions [3] - The company exceeded forecasts in both earnings and revenue for the quarter [3] Operational Expansion - ONEOK has expanded its operations significantly through acquisitions over the past two years, including the Gulf Coast NGL pipeline system from Easton Energy, Medallion Midstream, and EnLink Midstream [4] - The strategic acquisitions have contributed to the company's growth and operational capabilities [4]

Group 1 - ONEOK, Inc. is considered one of the best bargain stocks to buy in November, with Raymond James reducing the price target from $100 to $82 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1] - The midstream sector is showing stability for investors, driven by robust diesel margins and an oversupplied oil market, which is shifting focus towards refiners in the energy sector [1] - ONEOK's strategic acquisitions are yielding tangible benefits, enhancing acquisition-related synergies and organic growth, particularly in high-return projects [2] Group 2 - ONEOK is one of the largest diversified energy infrastructure companies in the U.S., with a significant network of natural gas liquids, natural gas, refined products, and crude oil assets [3] - The company's underperformance in Q2 2025 was attributed to OPEC+'s decision to increase production, leading to a softening oil price outlook [3] - Despite the potential of ONEOK as an investment, certain AI stocks are viewed as having greater upside potential and less downside risk [3]

Core Insights - The energy sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - XCF Global Inc (NASDAQ:SAFX) has an RSI of 25.6, with a stock price decline of approximately 35% over the past month, closing at $0.86 [8] - Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE:MTR) has an RSI of 26, with a stock price decline of around 12% over the past month, closing at $4.70 [8] - ONEOK Inc (NYSE:OKE) has an RSI of 28.7, with a stock price decline of about 8% over the past month, closing at $67.20 [8] Group 2: Company Announcements - XCF Global announced a partnership with New Rise Australia to expand sustainable aviation fuel production, highlighting the scalability of its renewable fuel platform [8] - Mesa Royalty Trust declared a distribution of $0.018350966 per unit for October, payable on January 30, 2026 [8] - ONEOK reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, attributing success to effective integration strategies and steady demand across its operations [8]

Financial Performance - Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $940 million, compared to $693 million for the same period in 2024, representing a 35.7% increase[15] - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $2,484 million, an increase of 17.6% compared to $2,112 million in 2024[18] - The company reported a net income of $939 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, compared to $693 million in the same quarter of 2024, representing a 35.5% increase[21] - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, total revenues reached $9,815 million, a significant increase from $5,718 million in the same period of 2024[80] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenues amounted to $28,244 million, with liquids commodity sales contributing $22,218 million[83] - Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $24,564 million, a decrease from $28,244 million in the previous period[84] - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $2,484 million, compared to $2,112 million for the same period in 2024[87] Comprehensive Income - Comprehensive income attributable to ONEOK for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $2,447 million, up from $2,077 million in 2024, reflecting a 17.9% growth[15] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $66,616 million as of September 30, 2025, from $64,069 million at the end of 2024, marking a 3.9% rise[17] - Cash and cash equivalents rose to $1,199 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $733 million at December 31, 2024, indicating a 63.5% increase[17] - Current liabilities increased to $5,735 million as of September 30, 2025, from $4,719 million at the end of 2024, a rise of 21.5%[17] - Long-term debt, excluding current maturities, was $31,986 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $31,018 million at December 31, 2024, reflecting a 3.1% increase[17] - The total estimated fair value of consolidated long-term debt, including current maturities, was $33.3 billion as of September 30, 2025, compared to $30.8 billion at December 31, 2024[38] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $2,182 million, a 49.5% increase from $1,459 million in 2024[18] - Capital expenditures for the three months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $789 million, compared to $450 million in the same period of 2024[80] Shareholder Returns - Dividends paid increased to $1,935 million, compared to $1,734 million in the previous year, reflecting a growth of 11.6%[18] - The company authorized a share repurchase program for up to $2.0 billion, repurchasing $45 million and $62 million of common stock in Q3 2025 and the nine months ended September 30, 2025, respectively[59] Acquisitions - The Delaware Basin JV Acquisition was completed for a total of $941 million, including $550 million in cash and approximately 4.9 million shares of common stock valued at $391 million[27] - The EnLink Acquisition involved the issuance of 41 million shares of common stock with a fair value of $4.0 billion, resulting in EnLink becoming a wholly owned subsidiary[29] - The company completed the EnLink Controlling Interest Acquisition on October 15, 2024, and the Medallion Acquisition on October 31, 2024, both accounted for using the acquisition method[31][32] - The company incurred transaction costs of $59 million related to the EnLink Acquisition during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[87] Operating Activities - Cash provided by operating activities increased to $4,053 million, up 23.6% from $3,277 million in the same period last year[18] - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $2,096 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, up from $1,549 million in the same period of 2024[79] - Segment adjusted EBITDA for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $5,863 million, up from $4,614 million in the previous year[87] Customer Base - Approximately 75% of downstream commodity sales in the Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment were made to investment-grade customers for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[183] - Approximately 80% of revenues in the Natural Gas Pipelines segment were from investment-grade customers for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[185] - Approximately 85% of revenues in the Refined Products and Crude segment were from investment-grade customers for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[186] Financial Flexibility - The company has a $3.5 billion amended and restated revolving credit agreement, which provides financial flexibility for future operations[10] - The company increased its commercial paper program size to $3.5 billion from $2.5 billion in September 2025[48] - In August 2025, the company completed a public offering of $3.0 billion senior unsecured notes, with net proceeds of $2.96 billion, partially used to repay commercial paper and senior notes due September 2025[50] Risk Management - As of September 30, 2025, the company had no material risks of noncompliance with regulatory, environmental, and safety laws affecting its operations[69] - The company assessed goodwill for impairment and determined that no impairment was necessary as of July 1, 2025[24] Future Revenue Expectations - As of September 30, 2025, the total expected revenue from unsatisfied performance obligations is $7,004 million, with $318 million expected to be recognized in the remainder of 2025[75] - The company expects to recognize $1,232 million in revenue from unsatisfied performance obligations in 2026[75]

Core Insights - ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) has experienced a total "non" return loss of 15.33% for shareholders, while the S&P 500 has performed better [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - The focus is on undervalued and disliked companies with strong fundamentals and good cash flows, particularly in the Oil & Gas sector [1] - Energy Transfer is highlighted as a company that was previously overlooked but now shows potential for long-term value [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach emphasizes long-term value investing, while also considering deal arbitrage opportunities [1] - There is a preference for businesses that are easily understandable, avoiding high-tech and certain consumer goods sectors [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter 2025 net income totaled $940 million or $1.49 per share, a 10% increase compared with the second quarter [9] - Third quarter adjusted EBITDA totaled $2.12 billion, which included $7 million of one-time transaction costs, representing a 7% increase compared to the second quarter and a 20% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025 [4][9] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 net income guidance range of $3.17 billion to $3.65 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $8 billion to $8.45 billion [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquired EnLink and Medallion assets delivered nearly $470 million in adjusted EBITDA during the third quarter, contributing to year-over-year earnings growth [9] - NGL raw feed throughput volumes increased, with Rocky Mountain region volumes averaging more than 490,000 bbl per day, a 5% increase compared to the second quarter [12] - Refined products volumes increased sequentially due to seasonal demand, with physical blending volumes up approximately 15% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Permian Basin natural gas processing capacity increased by more than 550 million cu ft per day, driven by strong demand and operational efficiencies [6][18] - Natural gas gathering and processing volumes increased across all regions compared to the second quarter, with the Permian Basin volumes averaging 1.55 billion cu ft per day, a 5% increase [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capturing additional synergies and operational efficiencies, expecting approximately $250 million in synergy contributions for 2025 [11] - ONEOK's strategy includes combining strategic acquisitions to create a more resilient business, leveraging integrated assets to expand reach in key basins and demand markets [22] - The company is actively assessing opportunities for growth in the Permian Basin and enhancing integrated operations [18][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate near-term challenges and continue delivering results for investors and customers [8] - The current commodity price environment may lead to moderation in drilling and completion activities, but strong gas-to-oil ratios and production efficiencies are expected to drive modest growth [19] - Management remains optimistic about maintaining volume growth in the Permian and other regions despite market volatility [42][45] Other Important Information - The company repurchased more than 600,000 shares of common stock and retired over $500 million in senior notes during the quarter [9] - The company expects to pay more than $1.5 billion less in cash taxes over the next five years, enhancing free cash flow and capital allocation flexibility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Tailwinds versus headwinds for earnings growth into next year - Management identified synergies and growth projects as tailwinds, with a focus on capturing market share in the Permian and other areas [25] Question: Capital allocation priorities between buybacks and debt paydown - Management indicated that as they approach their debt to EBITDA target, they will have more flexibility for stock buybacks alongside debt management [26] Question: 2026 guidance and impact of Waha spreads widening - Management emphasized the importance of ongoing discussions with producers and the positive impact of Waha spreads on their systems [30][32] Question: Capital allocation for future projects - Management stated that they evaluate each project on a standalone basis and expect capital expenditures to trend down in the coming years [35][36] Question: Update on LPG export commercialization efforts - Management reported strong interest in their docks and a positive contracting strategy for LPG exports [46] Question: Gas egress limitations in the Mid-Continent - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential in the Mid-Continent and the ability to manage gas egress effectively [49] Question: Dynamics of Bakken and Permian volumes - Management noted that Bakken volumes are trending positively due to ethane recovery, while Permian volumes are expected to stabilize as new pads come online [51][52] Question: Opportunities from AI-driven data center projects - Management highlighted interest from over 30 data center projects seeking natural gas supply, positioning the company favorably for future growth [56] Question: Importance of the Eiger Express pipeline project - Management emphasized the Eiger Express project as crucial for meeting LNG demand and enhancing integration with existing assets [58][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter 2025 net income totaled $940 million or $1.49 per share, a 10% increase compared with the second quarter [9] - Third quarter adjusted EBITDA totaled $2.12 billion, which included $7 million of one-time transaction costs, representing a 7% increase compared to the second quarter and a 20% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025 [4][9] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 net income guidance range of $3.17 billion to $3.65 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $8 billion to $8.45 billion [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquired NLink and Medallion assets delivered nearly $470 million in adjusted EBITDA during the third quarter, contributing to year-over-year earnings growth [9] - Natural gas liquids (NGL) raw feed throughput volumes increased, with Rocky Mountain region volumes averaging more than 490,000 barrels per day, a 5% increase compared to the second quarter [12] - Refined products volumes increased sequentially due to seasonal demand, with physical blending volumes up approximately 15% year to date compared to the same period in 2024 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Permian Basin, natural gas processing volumes increased 5% compared to the second quarter, averaging 1.55 billion cubic feet per day [18] - The Rocky Mountain region processed volumes averaged 1.7 billion cubic feet per day, a 4% increase compared to the second quarter, marking a record for the company in that region [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capturing additional synergies and operational efficiencies, expecting approximately $250 million in synergy contributions for 2025 [10] - The strategy includes integrating acquisitions to create a stronger and more resilient business, with a focus on expanding reach in key basins and demand markets [22] - The company is actively assessing opportunities to expand and enhance integrated operations within the Permian Basin [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate near-term challenges and continue delivering results for investors and customers [8] - The current commodity price environment may lead to moderation in drilling and completion activities, but strong gas-to-oil ratios and production efficiencies are expected to support modest growth [19] - Management remains optimistic about the growth trajectory into 2026, driven by synergies and growth projects coming online [25][31] Other Important Information - The company repurchased more than 600,000 shares of common stock and retired over $500 million in senior notes during the quarter [9] - The company expects to pay more than $1.5 billion less in cash taxes over the next five years, enhancing free cash flow and capital allocation flexibility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you frame up tailwinds versus headwinds for earnings growth into next year? - Management identified synergies and growth projects as tailwinds, with expectations for continued market share growth in the Permian and other areas [25] Question: How do you think about executing on buybacks versus debt paydown? - The company is approaching its debt to EBITDA target, which will allow for more flexibility in capital allocation, including stock buybacks [26] Question: Can you quantify the potential impact of Waha spreads widening? - Management noted that the widening spreads have had a positive impact, leveraging capacity across systems to grow gathering and processing [32] Question: How do you see the competition for the Sunbelt Connector project? - Management believes the Sunbelt Connector is competitive due to existing connections and efficient expansions, with significant customer interest [39] Question: What are the early indications on how volumes across supply-push assets will trend through next year? - Management is confident in maintaining volume levels due to current drilling activity and rising gas-to-oil ratios [43] Question: Can you provide an update on LPG export commercialization efforts? - Management reported strong interest in their docks and is pleased with the current contracting strategy [47] Question: Is gas egress becoming a limitation for growth out of the Mid-Continent? - Management believes there is still room for growth in the Mid-Continent and is prepared to address any potential limitations [50] Question: How do you view the dynamics of Bakken and Permian volumes? - Management noted that Bakken volumes are trending positively due to ethane recovery, while Permian volumes are expected to improve as delayed pads come online [52][53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter 2025 net income totaled $940 million or $1.49 per share, a 10% increase compared to the second quarter [8] - Third quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 7% compared to the second quarter, totaling $2.12 billion, which included $7 million of one-time transaction costs [3][8] - Year-to-date, transaction costs included in adjusted EBITDA have totaled $59 million [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquired NLink and Medallion assets contributed nearly $470 million in adjusted EBITDA during the third quarter, continuing their meaningful contribution to year-over-year earnings growth [8] - Natural gas liquids (NGL) raw feed throughput volumes increased, with Rocky Mountain region volumes averaging over 490,000 barrels per day, a 5% increase compared to the second quarter [11] - Crude oil volumes increased sequentially, demonstrating resiliency in the Midland gathering business [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Permian Basin, volumes increased 5% compared to the second quarter, averaging 1.55 billion cubic feet per day [16] - The Rocky Mountain region processed volumes averaged 1.7 billion cubic feet per day in the third quarter, a 4% increase compared to the second quarter [17] - Refined products tariff rate benefited from July adjustments, where rates were increased by a mid-single-digit percentage as expected [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to capture approximately $250 million of synergy-related adjusted EBITDA in 2025, with nearly $500 million of synergies realized since the Magellan acquisition [4][5] - The focus remains on operational efficiencies and capturing additional synergies, with a disciplined approach to capital allocation and cash flow generation [6][10] - The company is optimistic about growth opportunities in the Permian Basin and is actively assessing opportunities to expand integrated operations [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strong fundamentals and the ability to navigate near-term challenges while delivering results for investors and customers [6][20] - The current commodity price environment is expected to drive moderation and increased optimization of drilling and completion activities across the basins [18] - Management remains confident in the trajectory of earnings growth into 2026, driven by synergies and growth projects coming online [23][29] Other Important Information - The company repurchased more than 600,000 shares of common stock and retired over $500 million in senior notes [8] - The long-term leverage target remains at 3.5 times, expected to be approached in the fourth quarter of 2026 on a run-rate basis [9] - The company is in active discussions regarding numerous potential AI-driven data center projects, leveraging its intrastate assets located in key natural gas supply and demand centers [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you frame up tailwinds versus headwinds for earnings growth into next year? - Management identified synergies and growth projects coming online as tailwinds, while market share growth in the Permian and other areas will also fuel growth [23] Question: How do you think about executing on buybacks versus debt paydown? - The company is starting to be more flexible in capital allocation as it approaches its debt to EBITDA target, allowing for stock buybacks alongside debt management [24] Question: Can you quantify the potential impact of Waha spreads widening? - Management noted that the widening spreads have had a positive impact, leveraging capacity across systems to grow gathering and processing for customers [30] Question: How do you see the Sunbelt Connector project competing in the market? - The company believes the Sunbelt Connector is competitive due to its existing connections and efficient expansions, with significant interest from customers [35] Question: What are the early indications for volumes across supply-push assets? - Management is confident that drilling activity will maintain volume levels flat, with positive growth expected from the Permian and Bakken regions [39][40] Question: Can you provide an update on LPG export commercialization efforts? - The company is pleased with its contracting strategy and continues to see strong interest in its docks for LPG exports [42] Question: Is gas egress a limitation for growth in the Mid-Continent? - Management believes there is still room for growth in the Mid-Continent and is prepared to implement measures if egress becomes a concern [46] Question: How do you view the blending business in a mid-cycle environment? - The blending business has seen a 15% increase in volume year-to-date, positioning the company well for future opportunities as spreads normalize [68]