Summary of ONEOK Fireside Chat - September 30, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: ONEOK (NYSE: OKE) - **Industry**: Midstream Energy Key Points and Arguments Strategic Acquisitions - ONEOK has been highly acquisitive in the midstream space, doubling its size through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) since the early 2000s [2][3] - The company has established specific criteria for future acquisitions, focusing on projects that are credit accretive and provide scale [4][8] - Recent acquisitions include Magellan, Easton, EnLink, and Medallion, with five acquisitions completed in two years [5][4] Market Position and Integration - ONEOK is currently focused on integrating recent acquisitions and extending existing assets rather than pursuing new acquisitions aggressively [6][7] - The company aims to diversify its operations beyond the Bakken region, seeking demand-pull businesses [6][7] Volume Growth and Market Dynamics - The company anticipates modest volume growth across key basins, including Bakken, Mid Continent, and Permian, despite some winter-related volume declines [12][19] - The Mid Continent region has shown unexpected growth, particularly in the Cherokee formation [13][14] - The Permian Basin continues to grow, with producers becoming more efficient in drilling operations [20][21] Financial Outlook - ONEOK targets mid to upper single-digit growth in EBITDA for 2026, driven by volume growth and capital projects [23] - The company is completing several projects that will contribute to incremental growth, including the Denver expansion project [27][28] Risks and Market Sentiment - The primary risk to achieving growth targets is potential slowdowns in producer activity due to fluctuating crude oil prices [30][31] - There is skepticism in the market regarding the company's ability to model the impact of multiple acquisitions on earnings [10][11] New Projects and Infrastructure - The Sunbelt Connector project aims to address growing demand in Phoenix, with plans to connect refined products from various regions [33][34] - The company is optimistic about the returns from this project, which will include a larger pipeline to accommodate future demand [35][36] Capital Expenditure and Financial Strategy - ONEOK's growth capital expenditure (CapEx) is projected to remain around $3 billion, with expectations for a decrease in future years as projects are completed [40][42] - The company plans to utilize tax savings from new legislation to enhance cash flow and reduce leverage [42] Ethane Market and Export Opportunities - There is potential for increased ethane recovery in the Mid Continent region due to rising demand from export projects [47][49] - ONEOK is supportive of ethane export projects, recognizing their positive impact on pricing and demand [51][52] Natural Gas and LNG Demand - The company is well-positioned to benefit from increasing LNG demand, particularly in Louisiana, where it has seen unexpected growth in natural gas assets [55][56] - The Mid Continent region is viewed as an option for natural gas production, with expectations for increased activity as prices rise [57][58] Competition and Market Share - ONEOK holds a 60% market share in the Bakken for gas processing, with limited competition expected to impact its operations significantly [71][72] - The company maintains strong relationships with producers, which helps mitigate competitive risks [75] Additional Important Insights - The company is expanding its gas storage capabilities to manage increased gas flow and maintenance needs [66][68] - ONEOK's integrated systems provide a competitive advantage, allowing for streamlined operations and customer relationships [75]

Core Viewpoint - ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is considered a buy by Jim Cramer due to its strong management and current undervaluation, despite being down over 30% from its highs late last year [1] Company Overview - ONEOK, Inc. is a midstream energy company that provides gathering, processing, storage, transportation, and export services for natural gas, NGLs, refined products, and crude oil [1] - The company also engages in marketing, blending, and leasing activities, serving producers, utilities, refiners, and industrial customers [1] Investment Potential - The stock currently offers a dividend yield of just over 5% [1] - ONEOK has a strong presence in bringing natural gas to the Gulf Coast, which is significant for liquefied natural gas export infrastructure [1] - Cramer suggests that ONEOK could have more upside potential compared to Energy Transfer due to its current low valuation [1]

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Financial Performance and Guidance - ONEOK's 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance is \$8.225 billion at the midpoint of the \$8 billion to \$8.45 billion range[14, 23, 25] - The company is targeting 3%-4% annual dividend growth and a dividend payout ratio of approximately 85% or lower[31] - ONEOK returned approximately \$2.5 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases and is targeting to return approximately 75-85% of forecasted cash flow from operations[32] - Second quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA was approximately \$2 billion[47] Business Segments and Operations - Natural Gas Liquids contribute 37% to the adjusted EBITDA[14] - Natural Gas Gathering and Processing contribute 28% to the adjusted EBITDA[14] - Refined Products and Crude contribute 27% to the adjusted EBITDA[14] - Natural Gas Pipelines contribute 8% to the adjusted EBITDA[14] - The company's pipeline network spans approximately 60,000 miles[5, 11] Synergies and Growth Projects - Magellan synergies are expected to be over \$350 million realized by the end of 2025[27] - EnLink and Medallion synergies are expected to be over \$125 million realized by the end of 2025[29] - The Texas City Logistics Export Terminal JV is a 400,000 bpd LPG export terminal expected to be completed in early 2028[33, 61]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Oneok Inc. (OKE) closed at $73.10, reflecting a -1.07% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.26% [1] - Over the past month, Oneok's shares have decreased by 3.26%, while the Oils-Energy sector gained 4.06% and the S&P 500 increased by 2.87% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - Oneok Inc. is expected to report an EPS of $1.48, representing a 25.42% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects net sales of $9.31 billion, an 85.4% increase from the year-ago period [2] - For the annual period, anticipated earnings are $5.44 per share and revenue is projected at $35.71 billion, indicating increases of +5.22% and +64.58% respectively from last year [2] Group 3: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Changes in analyst estimates for Oneok Inc. are important as they reflect short-term business dynamics, with positive revisions indicating optimism about the business outlook [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Oneok Inc. at 3 (Hold) after a 0.7% decrease in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [5] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Oneok Inc. has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.58, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 12.41 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.81, higher than the industry average PEG ratio of 1.42 [7] Group 5: Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry, which includes Oneok Inc., has a Zacks Industry Rank of 64, placing it in the top 26% of over 250 industries [8] - Strong individual industry groups, as measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, tend to outperform weaker groups by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highlighted as a critical economic indicator, overshadowing other data releases such as car sales and jobless claims [2] - If the payroll data shows rapid wage growth, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach to inflation management [2][3] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is navigating a mixed economic landscape, with signs of slowdown in some sectors and growth in data center construction [2] Company Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) is noted for its strong long-term performance, delivering an annualized return of nearly 19% over the past 20 years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [7] - Despite a recent drop in stock price due to lower-than-expected membership growth, Costco's fundamentals remain strong, with increased membership fees and a younger demographic joining [7][8] - ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is recognized for its strong position in the natural gas sector, with a focus on providing services to the Gulf Coast, and is considered a buy due to its potential upside despite a recent decline in stock price [9]

Group 1 - ONEOK is an Oklahoma-based oil and gas midstream company with a focus on the transportation of natural gas and NGLs [1] - The company has a fast-growing footprint in the pipeline business [1] Group 2 - The majority of ONEOK's operations are centered around natural gas and NGL transportation [1]

Group 1 - ONEOK is an Oklahoma-based oil and gas midstream company with a focus on the transportation of natural gas and NGLs [1] - The company has a fast-growing footprint in the pipeline business, indicating strong growth potential in the midstream sector [1]

Group 1: ONEOK, Inc. - ONEOK reported second-quarter earnings of $1.34 per share, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $1.29 per share [1] - Sales for ONEOK reached $7.887 billion, exceeding market estimates of $7.131 billion [1] - Jim Cramer recommended buying ONEOK, expressing surprise at its current low price [1] Group 2: American Electric Power Company, Inc. - Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd maintained an Overweight rating for American Electric Power and lowered the price target from $117 to $115 [2] - Jim Cramer also recommended American Electric Power as a buy [1] - American Electric Power shares rose 1.2% to close at $109.14 [4] Group 3: D-Wave Quantum Inc. - Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd advised investors to take out their cost basis for D-Wave Quantum [2] - B. Riley Securities analyst Craig Ellis maintained a Buy rating for D-Wave Quantum and raised the price target from $22 to $33 [2] - D-Wave Quantum shares gained 1.6% to settle at $26.76 [4]

Group 1: ONEOK, Inc. - ONEOK reported second-quarter earnings of $1.34 per share, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $1.29 per share [1] - Sales for ONEOK reached $7.887 billion, exceeding market estimates of $7.131 billion [1] - Jim Cramer recommended buying ONEOK, stating he "can't believe it's this low" [1] Group 2: American Electric Power Company, Inc. - Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd maintained an Overweight rating for American Electric Power and lowered the price target from $117 to $115 [2] - Jim Cramer also recommended American Electric Power as a buy [1] - American Electric Power shares rose 1.2% to close at $109.14 [4] Group 3: D-Wave Quantum Inc. - Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd advised investors to take out their cost basis for D-Wave Quantum [2] - B. Riley Securities analyst Craig Ellis maintained a Buy rating for D-Wave Quantum and raised the price target from $22 to $33 [2] - D-Wave Quantum shares gained 1.6% to settle at $26.76 [4]