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Orchid Island Capital(ORC) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-04-25 15:14
8 Q1 2025 Earnings Supplemental Materials April 25, 2025 1 Disclaimers Forward-Looking Information This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words "may," "could," "would," "should," "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "plan," "estimate," "target," "project," "in ...
Orchid Island Capital(ORC) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-25 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1, the company earned $0.18 per share compared to $0.07 in Q4 [5] - Book value at March 31 was $7.94 per share compared to $8.09 at December 31 [5] - Total return for the quarter was 2.6% unannualized compared to 0.6% for Q4 [5] - Liquidity at March 31 was 52.2% compared to 52.9% at December 31 [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average portfolio was just under $6 billion compared to $5.3 billion in Q4 [6] - The leverage ratio at March 31 was 7.8 compared to 7.3 at December 31 [6] - Prepayment speeds were 7.8% in Q1 compared to 10.5% for Q4 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market moved to price in three or more Fed cuts by the end of the year [11] - Swap spreads moved meaningfully negative late in the quarter and into April [14] - The spread of the current coupon mortgage to the ten-year has widened significantly [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company raised capital during the quarter and deployed it into higher coupon, shorter duration assets [24] - The strategy includes using longer duration hedges to mitigate exposure to declining swap spreads [24] - The company is focused on maintaining liquidity and is prepared to raise capital if necessary [76] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed uncertainty due to market volatility driven by tariffs and inflation [55] - The expectation is for slower growth and potential Fed eases, which could lead to a steeper yield curve [58] - The company is positioned with a skew towards higher coupon, shorter duration assets, which should work well in the current environment [59] Other Important Information - The company declared and paid dividends of $0.36 per share for each quarter [5] - The management acknowledged a mistake in the initial earnings release regarding the breakdown of earnings per share [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the duration gap at the end of the quarter and to date? - The duration gap is very narrow, with a DV01 basis of $13, remaining about the same as of now [62][63] Question: Where do you see gross ROE sitting today? - The gross ROE is estimated to be around 20%, with high volatility in swaps [73] Question: How are you looking at dividend issuance and buybacks? - The company is cautious about buybacks due to stock trading close to book value and may consider raising capital for liquidity [76][78] Question: Will the 2025 dividend be 100% taxable income? - It is uncertain at this point, but the taxable income has been right on top of the distribution year to date [91][93] Question: Thoughts on the Rocket Mortgage and Nationstar deal? - The deal may increase prepayment speeds and impact the convexity of the mortgage universe negatively [99][100]
Orchid Island Capital(ORC) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-25 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1, the company earned $0.18 per share compared to $0.07 in Q4, with a book value of $7.94 per share down from $8.09 at the end of Q4 [5][6] - Total return for the quarter was 2.6% unannualized, an increase from 0.6% in Q4 [5] - The average portfolio size was just under $6 billion, up from $5.3 billion in Q4, with a leverage ratio of 7.8 compared to 7.3 at the end of Q4 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average portfolio size increased, indicating a more substantial investment in mortgage-backed securities [6] - Prepayment speeds decreased to 7.8% in Q1 from 10.5% in Q4, reflecting changes in market conditions [6][52] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market experienced significant volatility due to tariffs and their expected impact on the economy and inflation, leading to pricing in multiple Fed cuts by year-end [11][60] - Swap spreads moved meaningfully negative late in the quarter, impacting mortgage performance [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company raised capital during the quarter, deploying it into higher coupon, shorter duration assets, and hedging with longer duration instruments [24][32] - The strategy focuses on maintaining a balance between risk and return, particularly in a volatile market environment [61] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty regarding future economic conditions, highlighting potential inflationary pressures and slower growth due to tariffs [56][60] - The company is positioned to benefit from a steeper yield curve, which is anticipated to occur as a result of the current economic landscape [61] Other Important Information - The company declared and paid dividends of $0.36 per share for the quarter, maintaining a consistent payout [5] - Liquidity at the end of Q1 was 52.2%, slightly down from 52.9% at the end of Q4 [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the duration gap at the end of the quarter and to date? - Management indicated that the duration gap is narrow, with a DV01 basis of $13, remaining consistent [64][65] Question: What is the current book value? - The estimated book value was $7.28, reflecting an 8.3% decline quarter to date [70][71] Question: Where do you see gross ROE sitting today? - Management suggested that ROE is very high, potentially around 20%, due to volatile market conditions [79] Question: How are you looking at dividend issuance and buybacks? - Management noted that buybacks were reactivated due to stock price declines, and future capital raising may be considered for liquidity purposes [81][82] Question: How does the Rocket Mortgage and Nationstar merger affect prepay speeds? - Management indicated that the merger could lead to faster prepayment speeds, impacting the convexity of the mortgage universe [104]
Best Income Stocks to Buy for April 25th
ZACKS· 2025-04-25 13:15
Core Insights - Three stocks with strong income characteristics and buy rankings are highlighted for investors to consider on April 25th [1] Company Summaries - **Orchid Island Capital (ORC)**: A specialty finance company investing in residential mortgage-backed securities with government guarantees, has seen a 10.8% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings over the last 60 days. The company has a dividend yield of 20.8%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.8% [1][2] - **Vinci (VCISY)**: Engaged in the construction of buildings and civil structures, this company has experienced a nearly 5.7% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings over the last 60 days. Vinci offers a dividend yield of 4%, compared to an industry average of 0.0% [2] - **Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais (USNZY)**: The largest flat steel complex in Latin America and among the top twenty steel producers globally, this company has seen a substantial increase of nearly 57.1% in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings over the last 60 days. It has a dividend yield of 3.8%, exceeding the industry average of 1.7% [3]
Orchid Island Capital Announces First Quarter 2025 Results
Globenewswire· 2025-04-24 20:05
Core Viewpoint - Orchid Island Capital, Inc. reported its first quarter 2025 results, highlighting a relatively stable economic environment until March, followed by market volatility due to tariff announcements and economic data suggesting stagflation. The company maintained prudent leverage and liquidity amid these conditions [4][5]. Financial Highlights - The company reported net income of $17.1 million for Q1 2025, down from $19.8 million in Q1 2024. Interest income increased by approximately $9.1 million from Q4 2024, with a yield on average Agency RMBS rising from 5.38% to 5.41% [6][7]. - Net interest income was $19.7 million, with total expenses of $4.2 million. The company declared dividends of $0.36 per common share, resulting in a total return of 2.60% for the quarter [7][8]. - As of March 31, 2025, the book value per common share was $7.94, with a decline of approximately 8.8% in book value since March 31, 2025 [7][26]. Portfolio and Prepayments - The company received $133.0 million in scheduled and unscheduled principal repayments, resulting in a 3-month constant prepayment rate (CPR) of approximately 7.8%, down from 10.6% in Q4 2024 [9]. - The portfolio consisted of $6.738 billion in total mortgage assets, with 99.8% in fixed-rate RMBS and 0.2% in interest-only securities as of March 31, 2025 [10][11]. Financing and Liquidity - As of March 31, 2025, the company had outstanding repurchase obligations of approximately $6.4 billion, with a net weighted average borrowing rate of 4.46%. The adjusted leverage ratio was 7.5 to 1, and liquidity stood at approximately $446.5 million [13][16]. - The company plans to enhance liquidity by potentially pledging more structured RMBS while retaining cash to avoid asset sales in distressed markets [13]. Capital Allocation and Returns - Approximately 97.9% of the company's investable capital was allocated to the pass-through RMBS portfolio as of March 31, 2025, with a return on invested capital of approximately 3.8% for the quarter [27][32]. - The structured RMBS portfolio generated a return on invested capital of 2.8%, contributing to a combined return of approximately 3.8% [32][33]. Stock Offerings and Repurchase Program - The company has engaged in multiple equity distribution agreements, raising significant capital through stock offerings, including approximately $123.7 million in gross proceeds from the February 2025 agreement [36][38]. - The stock repurchase program has authorized the repurchase of up to 6,183,601 shares, with a total of 5,144,602 shares repurchased at an aggregate cost of approximately $77.5 million since inception [39][40].
After Plunging -24.73% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why the Trend Might Reverse for Orchid Island (ORC)
ZACKS· 2025-04-15 14:35
Group 1 - Orchid Island (ORC) has experienced a significant downtrend, with a stock decline of 24.7% over the past four weeks due to excessive selling pressure [1] - The stock is currently in oversold territory, indicated by an RSI reading of 26.89, suggesting that the heavy selling may be exhausting itself and a rebound could occur [5] - Wall Street analysts have raised earnings estimates for ORC by 11% over the last 30 days, indicating a potential for price appreciation in the near term [7] Group 2 - ORC holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further supporting the potential for a turnaround [8]
Orchid Island Capital: High Risk But Potential For 50%+ Return This Year
Seeking Alpha· 2025-04-12 09:29
Group 1 - The individual investor tends toward value investing while also exploring new strategies [1] - The investor has experience teaching financial management, focusing on financial statement and project financial analysis [1] - The investor has been recognized as a contributor in various financial categories on Seeking Alpha [1] Group 2 - There is an open buy/write order to go long on ORC [3]
Orchid Island Capital(ORC) - 2025 Q1 - Quarterly Results
2025-04-24 20:22
Financial Performance - Estimated net income per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was $0.18, including $0.17 per share of net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments[6] - Orchid Island Capital reported a net income of $5.2 million for the latest quarter, representing a 15% increase year-over-year[17] - The company’s total assets increased to $1.1 billion, up 10% from the previous quarter[17] - Orchid Island Capital's book value per share rose to $12.50, reflecting a 5% increase compared to the last quarter[17] Dividends and Returns - Total dividends declared during the quarter amounted to $0.36 per share, resulting in an estimated total return on equity of 2.6%[7] - The Company declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.12 per share for April 2025, payable on May 29, 2025[2] - The estimated total return on equity for the quarter was $0.21 per share, comprised of dividends per share of $0.36 and a decrease in book value per share of $0.15 from December 31, 2024[7] - The company declared a dividend of $0.15 per share, maintaining a consistent payout ratio[17] Shareholder Information - The estimated book value per share as of March 31, 2025, was $7.94, with total stockholders' equity approximately $855.9 million[5] - As of April 9, 2025, the Company had 107,673,390 shares of common stock outstanding, an increase from 82,622,464 shares as of December 31, 2024[4] - The next dividend announcement is expected on May 7, 2025[8] Asset and Portfolio Management - As of March 31, 2025, total mortgage assets amounted to $6,938,868,000, with a weighted average coupon of 5.29%[14] - The portfolio consists of 62.6% Fannie Mae assets valued at $4,343,326,000 and 37.4% Freddie Mac assets valued at $2,595,542,000[14] - Whole pool assets represent 97.1% of total mortgage assets, amounting to $6,738,029,000[15] - Total borrowings reached $6,418,641,000, with a weighted average rate of 4.46%[16] - The largest counterparty for borrowings is J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, accounting for $360,622,000, or 5.6% of total borrowings[16] - The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage portfolio has a total face value of $6,768,926,000, with a weighted average age of 22 months[12] - The company reported a total pass rate of 96.89% for the 30-year total portfolio[12] Market Position and Growth Strategy - User data indicated a 20% growth in the number of active investors in the last quarter[17] - Future outlook suggests a targeted annual growth rate of 8% for the next fiscal year[17] - The company is expanding its market presence in the Southeast region, aiming for a 25% increase in market share[17] - Orchid Island Capital is investing $2 million in new technology to enhance data analytics capabilities[17] - The company is exploring potential acquisition opportunities to diversify its portfolio[17] - A new strategic partnership is expected to drive revenue growth by 12% in the upcoming year[17] Risk Management - The modeled interest rate sensitivity indicates a potential impact of $113,593,000 under a -50 BPS scenario and $131,586,000 under a +50 BPS scenario[12] - The market value of the short position in five-year Treasury futures was $408.3 million as of March 31, 2025[13] - The market value of the short position in ten-year Treasury futures was $215.2 million as of March 31, 2025[13] Regulatory Compliance - The Company must distribute at least 90% of its REIT taxable income annually to qualify as a real estate investment trust[3] - Forward-looking statements regarding the Company's distributions are based on current expectations and are not guaranteed to occur[10] RMBS Portfolio - The RMBS portfolio consists of traditional pass-through Agency RMBS and structured Agency RMBS[9]
Orchid Island Capital Announces Estimated First Quarter 2025 Results, April 2025 Monthly Dividend and March 31, 2025 RMBS Portfolio Characteristics
Newsfilter· 2025-04-09 21:10
Core Viewpoint - Orchid Island Capital, Inc. has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.12 per share for April 2025, to be paid on May 29, 2025, with an ex-dividend date of April 30, 2025 [1] Dividend and Distribution - The company intends to make regular monthly cash distributions to its common stockholders and must distribute at least 90% of its REIT taxable income annually to qualify as a real estate investment trust (REIT) [2] - The company has not established a minimum distribution payment level and cannot assure its ability to make future distributions [2] Share Information - As of April 9, 2025, the company had 107,673,390 shares of common stock outstanding, a slight decrease from 107,786,614 shares as of March 31, 2025 [3] Financial Metrics - The estimated book value per share as of March 31, 2025, was $7.94, with total stockholders' equity approximately $855.9 million [4] - The estimated net income per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was $0.18, which includes $0.17 per share of net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments [5] - The estimated total return on equity for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was 2.6%, comprising dividends of $0.36 per share and a decrease in book value per share of $0.15 [6] RMBS Portfolio - Orchid Island Capital, Inc. invests in Agency RMBS, focusing on traditional pass-through Agency RMBS and structured Agency RMBS [7] - As of March 31, 2025, the RMBS portfolio included significant holdings in Fannie Mae (62.6%) and Freddie Mac (37.4%) [14] Borrowings - The total borrowings as of March 31, 2025, amounted to $6,418,641, with a weighted average interest rate of 4.46% [16]
Orchid Island Capital Announces Estimated First Quarter 2025 Results, April 2025 Monthly Dividend and March 31, 2025 RMBS Portfolio Characteristics
Globenewswire· 2025-04-09 21:10
Core Viewpoint - Orchid Island Capital, Inc. announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.12 per share for April 2025, to be paid on May 29, 2025, with an ex-dividend date of April 30, 2025 [1] Dividend and Distribution - The company intends to make regular monthly cash distributions to its common stockholders, adhering to the requirement of distributing at least 90% of its REIT taxable income annually to qualify as a real estate investment trust (REIT) [2] - The company has not established a minimum distribution payment level and cannot assure its ability to make future distributions [2] Share Information - As of April 9, 2025, the company had 107,673,390 shares of common stock outstanding, a slight decrease from 107,786,614 shares as of March 31, 2025 [3] Financial Metrics - The estimated book value per share as of March 31, 2025, was $7.94, calculated by dividing total stockholders' equity of approximately $855.9 million by the total number of outstanding shares [4] - The estimated net income per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was $0.18, which includes an estimated $0.17 per share of net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments [5] - The total return on equity for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was estimated at 2.6%, comprising dividends per share of $0.36 and a decrease in book value per share of $0.15 [6] RMBS Portfolio - The company invests in Agency RMBS, focusing on traditional pass-through Agency RMBS and structured Agency RMBS [7] - As of March 31, 2025, the total mortgage assets amounted to $6,938,868, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accounting for 62.6% and 37.4% of the portfolio, respectively [13] Borrowings - Total borrowings as of March 31, 2025, were $6,418,641, with an average interest rate of 4.46% [15]