Core Viewpoint - Petrobras is expected to report a decline in revenues for Q1 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates revised downward by 14% over the past month, indicating a challenging operational environment despite a projected year-over-year improvement in EPS [1][16]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 EPS is 92 cents, with revenues expected to be $21.7 billion, reflecting an 8.7% year-over-year decrease [1][2]. - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $83.9 billion, indicating an 8.2% decline year-over-year, while the EPS estimate is $2.79, suggesting a contraction of approximately 6.4% [2][3]. Production and Sales - Petrobras is projected to experience a marginal 0.2% year-over-year drop in oil and gas production to 2.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in Q1 2025, with crude oil output declining by 1% to 2.21 million barrels per day (bpd) [7]. - Total oil, gas, and derivatives sales decreased by 1.9% to 2.86 million boed, with exports falling 10.4% year-over-year to 760,000 bpd, primarily due to reduced shipments to China and the U.S. [8]. Market Position and Valuation - Petrobras stock has declined by 12% year-to-date, underperforming compared to American supermajors like ExxonMobil and Chevron [9]. - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.10, significantly lower than ExxonMobil and Chevron, which trade around 15X earnings, reflecting concerns over political risks and government influence [13]. Economic and Market Conditions - The company's earnings are closely tied to oil prices, which are trending lower amid recession fears and geopolitical tensions, potentially impacting revenue and margins [15]. - The broader economic slowdown could further squeeze margins, with Petrobras facing challenges in maintaining dividend potential amidst high-cost exploration plans and increasing capital expenditures [15][17].

Summary of Latin America Oil & Gas Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil and gas industry in Latin America, highlighting the region's path to energy security and production growth through 2030 [1][15][19]. Key Insights Oil Production Growth - Latin America is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% in oil production, translating to an increase of about 1.6 million barrels per day (Mbpd) by 2030 compared to 2024 [1][32]. - Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana are identified as the primary drivers of this growth, with Brazil's production expected to increase significantly due to pre-salt developments [16][20][30]. Regional Dynamics - The region is self-sufficient in liquid hydrocarbons and is forecasted to increase net exports by approximately 430,000 barrels per day (Kbpd) by 2030, which is a 21% increase from 2024 levels [16]. - Brazil and Argentina are projected to contribute 1.2 Mbpd in production growth from 2025 to 2027, exceeding consensus expectations by about 6.5% [16]. Economic Implications - Oil production is crucial for the sovereign credit ratings of countries like Ecuador, Argentina, and Mexico, with positive implications for Argentina's bonds but negative for Ecuador and Pemex [17]. - Fiscal revenues from oil are recovering post-pandemic, with projections indicating a decline of 28% in 2025 to approximately US$62 billion, but a potential increase to US$90 billion by 2030 if oil prices stabilize at US$70 per barrel [19]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of Petrobras in Brazil and YPF in Argentina, with Petrobras being highlighted as a strong risk-reward investment in Latin America [18][30]. - The Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina is noted for its significant production potential, with expectations of a 60% increase in rig count by 2030, leading to a substantial rise in production [79][86]. Challenges and Risks - Mexico and Colombia face challenges with declining production and limited foreign investment, which could hinder growth [34]. - The report warns of potential risks to production figures if oil prices fall below US$60 per barrel, particularly affecting Pemex's funding capabilities [42]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts a 2.9% CAGR in oil production in Latin America from 2025 to 2030, with Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana expected to add approximately 1.0 Mbpd, offsetting declines in other regions [32][34]. - The pre-salt oil fields in Brazil continue to show strong productivity, with new developments expected to sustain growth through the end of the decade [49][50]. Additional Considerations - The report highlights the importance of National Oil Companies (NOCs) in driving energy security and trade surplus in the region, with a projected average trade surplus of 2.2 Mbpd through 2030 [27][28]. - The Equatorial Margin in Brazil is identified as a future exploratory frontier, with significant potential for new discoveries, although development timelines may extend into the mid-2030s due to regulatory challenges [58][59]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state and future prospects of the oil and gas industry in Latin America, emphasizing key players, economic implications, and potential investment opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Petrobras (Brazilian National Oil Company) is pressuring suppliers to adjust prices due to a significant drop in oil prices [1] Group 1 - Petrobras is experiencing a substantial decline in oil prices, prompting the need for price adjustments from suppliers [1]

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The latest trading session saw Petrobras (PBR) ending at $11.35, denoting a +0.53% adjustment from its last day's close. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.63%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.21%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw an increase of 1.52%.Coming into today, shares of the oil and gas company had lost 21.54% in the past month. In that same time, the Oils-Energy sector lost 11.18%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.7%.Market participants will be closely foll ...

Core Viewpoint - The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for Petrobras (PBR) is 1.69, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, with 62.5% of recommendations being Strong Buy [2][5]. Brokerage Recommendation Trends - The ABR is based on recommendations from eight brokerage firms, with five firms rating it as Strong Buy [2]. - Despite the positive ABR, reliance solely on brokerage recommendations may not be advisable, as studies show they often fail to guide investors effectively [5][10]. Zacks Rank vs. ABR - Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which correlate strongly with stock price movements [8][11]. - The ABR is calculated from brokerage recommendations and may not be timely, while Zacks Rank reflects the latest earnings estimates [9][12]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Petrobras has declined by 6.2% over the past month to $2.94, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13]. - This decline in earnings estimates has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for Petrobras, suggesting caution despite the positive ABR [14].

The latest trading session saw Petrobras (PBR) ending at $11.42, denoting a -0.44% adjustment from its last day's close. This change lagged the S&P 500's 2.03% gain on the day. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 1.23%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 2.74%. Prior to today's trading, shares of the oil and gas company had lost 19.96% over the past month. This has lagged the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 10.82% and the S&P 500's loss of 5.07% in that time. Investors will be eagerly watching for the ...

Core Viewpoint - Petrobras has experienced a decline in stock price and is underperforming compared to major indices, with upcoming earnings expected to show a significant year-over-year increase in EPS but a decrease in revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - Petrobras closed at $11.49, down 0.17% from the previous session, while the S&P 500 gained 2.51% [1] - The stock has fallen by 17.61% in the past month, compared to a 12.78% loss in the Oils-Energy sector and an 8.86% loss in the S&P 500 [1] - The projected EPS for the upcoming quarter is $1.07, indicating a 42.67% increase year-over-year, while quarterly revenue is expected to be $20.65 billion, down 13.12% from the previous year [2] - For the full year, earnings are projected at $3.01 per share and revenue at $87.12 billion, reflecting changes of +1.01% and -4.7% respectively from the prior year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Petrobras indicate a positive outlook on the company's operations and profit generation capabilities [4] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 3.91% over the last 30 days, and Petrobras currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Petrobras is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 3.83, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 7.9 [7] - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry ranks in the bottom 15% of all industries, with a current Zacks Industry Rank of 212 [7][8]

Petrobras S.A. (PBR) , the Brazilian state-owned energy giant, has stated that Borr Drilling’s jack-up rig, namely Arabia I, has arrived in Brazilian waters to begin decommissioning activities in the Sergipe Basin. The Arabia I jack-up rig secured a four-year contract from Petrobras in Brazil. The contract includes a four-year option to extend the jack-up rig’s stay with Petrobras. However, the option currently remains unpriced.The Arabia I jack-up rig was expected to begin its contract with PBR in the firs ...

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