Pfizer’s (PFE) non-COVID operational revenues improved in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by its key in-line products like Vyndaqel and Eliquis, new launches like Abrysvo and newly acquired products like Nurtec as well as those acquired from Seagen (December 2023). The trend is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter.In the past year, Pfizer’s stock has declined 0.2% compared with a decrease of 2.5% for the industry. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDrug Sales Estimates: Vyndaqel, Pr ...

Core Insights - Zacks Premium provides various tools to help investors make informed decisions and invest confidently in the stock market [1][2] Zacks Style Scores - Zacks Style Scores are indicators that assist investors in selecting stocks likely to outperform the market within 30 days, rated from A to F based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics [3] - The Value Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using financial ratios like P/E and Price/Sales [4] - The Growth Score evaluates a company's financial health and future outlook through projected earnings and sales [5] - The Momentum Score identifies optimal times to invest based on price trends and earnings estimate changes [6] - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores, providing a comprehensive assessment of stocks based on value, growth, and momentum [7] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that uses earnings estimate revisions to simplify portfolio building, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks achieving an average annual return of +25.41% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [8][9] - Investors are encouraged to select stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B to maximize returns [10] Stock Example: Pfizer (PFE) - Pfizer operates in the biopharmaceutical sector, offering a range of drugs and vaccines, and currently holds a 3 (Hold) Zacks Rank with a VGM Score of A [12] - The stock has a Momentum Style Score of B, with a recent 0.3% increase in share price over the past four weeks, and upward revisions in earnings estimates for fiscal 2024 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project Pfizer's quarterly earnings to be $0.48 per share, reflecting a 380% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $17.5 billion, a 22.8% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 3% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Pfizer Biopharma- Worldwide' revenues at $17.00 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of +22.6% [5]. - 'Revenues- Specialty Care- Vyndaqel family- Worldwide' are projected to reach $1.52 billion, reflecting a +57.9% year-over-year change [5]. - 'Revenues- Primary Care- Comirnaty direct sales and alliance revenues- Worldwide' are expected to be $3.27 billion, showing a -39.1% year-over-year change [6]. - 'Revenue- Primary Care- Nurtec ODT/Vydura- Worldwide' is projected at $384.55 million, indicating a +36.4% year-over-year change [6]. Regional Revenue Insights - 'Pfizer Biopharma- United States' is estimated at $9.29 billion, reflecting a +106.8% change from the year-ago quarter [7]. - 'Pfizer Biopharma- Total International' is projected to reach $7.71 billion, indicating a -17.7% change from the prior-year quarter [7]. - 'Revenue- Primary Care- Comirnaty direct sales and alliance revenues- Total International' is expected to be $2.43 billion, showing a -43.4% year-over-year change [8]. - 'Revenue- Primary Care- Paxlovid- Total International' is projected at $214.42 million, indicating an +88.1% year-over-year change [8]. Additional Revenue Metrics - 'Revenue- Primary Care- Nurtec ODT/Vydura- United States' is expected to be $358.64 million, reflecting a +30.4% change from the year-ago quarter [9]. - 'Revenue- Primary Care- Nurtec ODT/Vydura- Total International' is projected to reach $25.91 million, indicating a +270.1% year-over-year change [9]. - The average prediction for 'Revenue- Primary Care- United States' is $4.14 billion, reflecting a +426.4% year-over-year change [10]. - 'Revenue- Primary Care- Total International' is expected to be $4.50 billion, indicating a -27.4% change from the year-ago quarter [10]. Stock Performance - Pfizer shares have changed by +0.3% in the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.2% move, with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) indicating expected performance closely aligned with the overall market [10].

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Core Viewpoint - Pfizer's shares increased nearly 3% following the news that activist investor Starboard did not nominate any directors to the board ahead of the January 25 deadline, indicating a less confrontational approach for this year [1] Group 1: Starboard's Influence - Starboard may attempt to make changes to Pfizer's board next year if no agreement is reached [2] - Starboard previously accused Pfizer's management of poor capital allocation, R&D failures, and issues with forecasting and budgeting, having built a $1 billion position in the company [3] - At an investor summit, Starboard publicly criticized Pfizer for not generating sustainable revenues from R&D and M&A activities [5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Value - Pfizer's shares have declined by 2.3% over the past year, while the industry has seen a growth of 0.2% [4] - Starboard highlighted that Pfizer has invested approximately $70 billion in acquisitions since the pandemic, claiming the company overpaid for these deals [7] - The decisions made by Pfizer have reportedly led to a loss of nearly $20-$60 billion in market value since 2019, despite a $40 billion boost from its COVID-19 franchise [8] Group 3: Capital Allocation Concerns - Starboard emphasized the importance of capital allocation discipline and requested the board to hold management accountable for incorrect capital allocation decisions [9]

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on February 4, with consensus estimates for sales at $17.50 billion and earnings at 48 cents per share, while 2025 earnings estimates have slightly declined from $2.92 to $2.88 per share [1][2]. Earnings Performance - Pfizer has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the past four quarters, achieving an average earnings surprise of 74.50%, with the last quarter showing a surprise of 65.62% [2][3]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty is $3.27 billion, while Paxlovid is estimated at $589.0 million [7]. - Non-COVID operational revenues have improved, with estimates for Vyndaqel/Vyndamax sales at $1.52 billion and Eliquis alliance revenues at $1.66 billion [8][9]. - Sales for the Prevnar family of vaccines are estimated at $1.56 billion, while the model estimates are slightly lower at $1.53 billion [10]. Product Performance - Sales of key oncology products like Ibrance may have declined due to competitive pressures, but other products such as Xtandi and Padcev are expected to have performed well [11]. - Newly launched drugs and acquisitions are anticipated to contribute positively to top-line growth, with several new therapies expected to drive revenue [12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has decreased by 12.6% over the past six months, slightly better than the industry average decline of 13.0% [14]. - The stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 9.28, which is lower than the industry average of 16.0 and its own 5-year mean of 11.22, indicating attractive valuation [16]. Future Outlook - Pfizer expects a revenue CAGR of approximately 6% from 2025 to 2030, driven by new products and acquisitions [19]. - The company maintains a strong cash position from COVID product profits, which supports dividends, share buybacks, and debt reduction [22].

Core Insights - Pfizer Inc. announced results from the Phase 3 BREAKWATER trial for Braftovi (encorafenib) in combination with cetuximab and mFOLFOX6 for metastatic colorectal cancer with a BRAF V600E mutation [1][6] Efficacy Results - The Braftovi combination regimen showed a significant improvement in confirmed objective response rate (ORR) at 60.9% compared to 40.0% for chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab [2] - The estimated median duration of response was 13.9 months for the Braftovi combination versus 11.1 months for chemotherapy [3] - Among patients receiving Braftovi plus cetuximab and mFOLFOX6, 22.4% had a response lasting 12 months or longer, compared to 11.4% with chemotherapy [4] - The median time to response was 7.1 weeks for the Braftovi combination and 7.3 weeks for chemotherapy [4] Overall Survival Data - Overall survival (OS) data were immature but indicated a trend favoring the Braftovi combination over chemotherapy [5] - Median overall survival was not estimable for the Braftovi combination, while it was 14.6 months for chemotherapy [5] - The BREAKWATER trial is ongoing, with progression-free survival (PFS) results expected in 2025 [5] Safety Profile - The safety profile of Braftovi in combination with cetuximab and mFOLFOX6 was consistent with known safety profiles, with no new safety signals identified [6] - The FDA granted accelerated approval for Braftovi in combination with cetuximab and mFOLFOX6 for BRAF V600E-mutant mCRC in December 2024 [6] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Pfizer's stock increased by 2.76% to $26.81 [6]

Core Insights - Pfizer achieved a significant milestone in 2022 by generating $100 billion in annual sales, but has since experienced a decline in financial performance and stock price [1] - The company is working on improving its financial results, with hopes that consistent revenue and earnings growth could attract more investors [2] Financial Performance - Pfizer's revenue guidance for 2025 is projected to be between $61 billion and $64 billion, indicating flat growth compared to 2024 [3] - The adjusted earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be in the range of $2.80 to $3, reflecting a growth of 10% to 18% compared to 2024 [4] Pipeline Developments - Pfizer has made progress in clinical and regulatory areas, but recent product approvals have not led to significant sales increases [5] - The company is developing danuglipron, a potential oral weight management medication currently in phase 1 studies, which could positively impact stock performance if successful [6][7] - The anti-obesity market is currently very attractive, and Pfizer's efforts in this area may yield better investor reactions compared to other pipeline candidates [8] Future Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding Pfizer's performance in the near term, with expectations that financial results may not be outstanding [9] - The company is laying a foundation for future growth, particularly in oncology, and aims to reduce reliance on inconsistent coronavirus-related sales [10] Dividend Considerations - Pfizer is recognized as a strong dividend stock, offering a forward yield of approximately 6.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.3% [11] - The company has increased its dividend payouts by 53.6% over the past decade, making it appealing for long-term investors seeking stable income [11]

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer's stock underperformed in 2024, losing about 5%, while the S&P 500 gained 23%, attributed to declining Covid-19 vaccine sales, falling profitability, and increased competition [1][3][5] Group 1: 2024 Performance Overview - Pfizer's sales excluding Covid-19 products grew in double digits over the last couple of quarters, with Vyndaqel sales up 66% year-over-year to $3.9 billion and Eliquis sales up 8% to $5.5 billion [3] - Total revenue for Pfizer reached $59.4 billion in the last twelve months, slightly above $58.5 billion in 2023, aided by the acquisition of Seagen [3] - Pfizer aims to achieve $4 billion in cost savings for 2024, with total debt declining from $71 billion in 2023 to $67 billion, while cash decreased from $13 billion to $10 billion [3] Group 2: Stock Performance and Valuation - PFE stock declined from $28 at the beginning of 2024 to around $27 by year-end, with a volatile performance over the last four years [5] - The stock is currently undervalued, estimated at $36 per share, reflecting a potential upside of around 40% from current levels, trading at 2.5x trailing revenues compared to an average P/S ratio of 3.1x over the last five years [6][9] Group 3: Outlook for 2025 - 2025 may see slight improvements in sales and earnings, but the blockbuster drug Xeljanz is set to lose patent protection, which could impact revenue [7] - Continued market share gains are expected for Vyndaqel, Abrysvo, and Eliquis, while Xtandi and Prevnar may face increased competition [8] - The updated Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty has been approved, and its performance will be monitored in 2025 [8]

Group 1 - Pfizer has implemented significant transformative changes, including a revamped commercial strategy and new leadership, resulting in exceeding market share expectations and achieving $4 billion in savings along with an additional $1.5 billion in margin improvements [1][2] - The company has returned over $7 billion in dividends and allocated $4.5 billion towards debt repayment in the first nine months of the year [2] - Pfizer is facing a significant loss of exclusivity wave projected to reduce revenues by about $17-18 billion between 2026 and 2028, but expects acquired products to generate $20 billion in revenue by 2030 to offset these losses [3] Group 2 - The company is optimistic about future performance due to significant progress in 2024, despite underwhelming new product launches in 2023 [4] - Guidance for 2024 reflects uncertainty due to miscalculations in COVID-19 revenue and the transition of Paxlovid to a commercial model, with expectations for stable COVID revenues in 2025 [5] - Demand for Paxlovid closely tracks predictable COVID waves, and the company anticipates stability in its COVID business moving forward [6]