Core Insights - P3 Health Partners Inc. will participate in the Noble Capital Markets' 21st Annual Emerging Growth Equity Conference on December 3, 2025 [1][2] - The company focuses on population health management, aiming to improve healthcare outcomes for patients and providers [3] Company Overview - P3 Health Partners is a physician-led organization with a network of over 2,800 affiliated primary care providers across the United States [3] - The company operates in 27 counties across five states, managing care for thousands of patients [3] - P3 supports primary care providers through value-based care coordination and administrative services, which enhance patient outcomes and reduce costs [3] - The organization emphasizes an integrated approach to patient care, improving the overall patient experience [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Capitated revenue increased by approximately 6% year-over-year, with total capitated revenue for the quarter at $341.6 million, or about $982 per member per month [5][15] - Adjusted EBITDA loss for the quarter was $45.9 million, with a year-to-date adjusted EBITDA loss of $85.2 million [8][18] - The company revised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of a $110 million loss to a $95 million loss, reflecting current performance expectations [9][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Membership for the quarter was approximately 116,000 members, aligning with expectations [8] - Medical margin for the quarter was $4.4 million, or $13 per member per month, compared to $500,000 or $1 per member per month in the prior period [16] - Year-to-date medical margin was $52.2 million, or $50 per member per month, with normalized medical margin at $80.8 million, or $78 per member per month [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The normalized adjusted EBITDA loss year-to-date was approximately $70 million, providing a clearer reflection of underlying business performance [8][18] - The operational improvement plan has achieved over $100 million in EBITDA improvement year-over-year [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving stability, strengthening operating discipline, and maturing its clinical foundation [5] - A strategic joint venture is expected to add approximately 13,000 fully accredited ACO members, enhancing profitability and cash flow [7] - The company is rationalizing its provider network to improve margin performance, exiting groups that do not align clinically or economically [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the core operating model, highlighting stable medical cost trends and improved provider alignment [22] - The company anticipates favorable macro tailwinds heading into 2026, with expected improvements in the rate environment communicated by CMS [22] - Management believes the foundation is in place for meaningful profitability in 2026, supported by disciplined execution and alignment of the network [22] Other Important Information - The company has identified $120 million to $170 million in EBITDA expansion opportunities for 2026 [11][21] - The operational improvements are expected to lead to a more stable and scalable operating platform [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What convinces the plans to cede margin in their MA books? - Management indicated that payers are motivated by the need for investment in high-risk patient management and quality metrics, which drives renegotiation conversations [25][26] Question: Was the guidance reduction driven by a single payer or more broadly? - The guidance reduction was primarily related to mid-year settlements coming in less than expected and some medical cost initiatives being pushed out [36][37] Question: What was the prior period dollar amount in the third quarter? - The prior period amount was a $3 million decrement, with a total unfavorable impact of $24 million in Q3 due to mid-year true-ups [42][44] Question: What are the PMPM revenue growth expectations in 2026? - The aggregate expectation for PMPM revenue growth is about a 5% net improvement in premium, with further guidance on coding improvements expected in the next quarter [48][49]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Capitated revenue increased by approximately 6%, with total capitated revenue for the quarter at $341.6 million, or about $982 per member per month [5][15] - Adjusted EBITDA loss for the quarter was $45.9 million, with a year-to-date adjusted EBITDA loss of $85.2 million [8][18] - The company revised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of -$110 million to -$95 million, reflecting current expectations [9][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Membership was approximately 116,000 members, aligning with expectations [8] - Medical margin for the quarter was $4.4 million, or $13 per member per month, compared to $500,000 or $1 per member per month in the prior period [16] - Year-to-date medical margin was $52.2 million, or $50 per member per month [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The normalized adjusted EBITDA loss year-to-date was approximately $70 million, providing a clearer reflection of underlying performance [8] - The operational improvement plan achieved over $100 million in EBITDA improvement year-over-year [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving stability, strengthening operating discipline, and maturing its clinical foundation [5] - A strategic joint venture is expected to add approximately 13,000 fully accredited ACO members, enhancing profitability and cash flow [7] - The company is rationalizing its provider network to improve margin performance, exiting groups that do not align clinically or economically [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the core operating model, highlighting stable medical cost trends and improved provider alignment [22] - The company anticipates favorable macro tailwinds heading into 2026, with expected improvements in the rate environment communicated by CMS [22] - Management identified $120 million-$170 million in EBITDA expansion opportunities for 2026, positioning the company for meaningful profitability [23] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $37.7 million in cash, maintaining a disciplined approach to working capital management [18] - The normalized medical cost trend has remained flat year-over-year, reflecting progress in clinical execution and cost management [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What convinces the plans to cede margin in their M&A books? - Management indicated that payers are motivated by the investment made into their membership, particularly concerning high-risk patients and quality metrics [26] Question: Have you made an attempt to have the plans participate in a potential surplus? - Management confirmed that they take the risk from the payers, who receive their administrative margin, while the company operates on a percentage of premium [28] Question: Was the guidance reduction driven by a single payer or more broad-based? - The guidance reduction was primarily related to mid-year settlements coming in less than expected and was more broad-based than just one payer [36] Question: What was the prior period dollar amount in the third quarter? - The prior period amount net in the P&L was a $3 million decrement, with a total unfavorable impact of $24 million in Q3 due to mid-year true-ups [42][44] Question: What are the odds of another prior period adjustment in 2026? - Management expects a more consistent method of booking expenses and revenue moving forward, which should preclude significant normalization adjustments [46] Question: What was the PMPM revenue growth expectation in 2026? - Management anticipates about a 5% net improvement in premium across their markets, with further guidance on coding improvements expected in the next quarter [48]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Capitated revenue increased by approximately 6% year-over-year, with total capitated revenue for the quarter at $341.6 million, or about $982 per member per month [5][14] - Adjusted EBITDA loss for the quarter was $45.9 million, with a year-to-date adjusted EBITDA loss of $85.2 million [7][17] - Normalized adjusted EBITDA year-to-date was a loss of approximately $70 million, reflecting the underlying performance of the business [7][17] - Medical margin for the quarter was $4.4 million, or $13 per member per month, compared to $500,000, or $1 per member per month in the prior period [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Membership was approximately 116,000 members, in line with expectations [7] - The operational improvement plan achieved over $100 million in EBITDA improvement year-over-year [6] - The company is moving forward with a strategic joint venture that will add approximately 13,000 fully accredited ACO members [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The normalized medical cost trend has remained flat year-over-year, despite rising cost trends across the industry [5][8] - Tier one providers performed 17.4% higher in STARS HEDIS gap closures compared to non-tier one providers in the first half of the year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving stability, strengthening operating discipline, and maturing the clinical foundation [5] - There is an intentional rationalization of the provider network to improve margin performance, including exiting groups that do not align clinically or economically [6] - The company aims to achieve meaningful profitability in 2026, supported by a stable operating model and favorable macro tailwinds [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the core operating model, highlighting stable medical cost trends and improved provider alignment [20] - The company anticipates favorable macroeconomic conditions heading into 2026, with payers shifting towards more sustainable benefit designs [21] - Management revised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of minus $110 million to minus $95 million, reflecting current expectations [8][18] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $37.7 million in cash, maintaining a disciplined approach to working capital management [17][18] - There are $120 million to $170 million of EBITDA opportunities identified for the next five quarters [7][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What convinces the plans to cede margin in their MA books? - Management indicated that payers are motivated by the investment made into their membership, particularly concerning high-risk patients and quality metrics [25][30] Question: Was the guidance reduction driven by a single payer or market? - The guidance reduction was more broad-based, primarily due to mid-year settlements coming in less than expected and structural controls being put in place [34] Question: How are non-core assets performing? - There are still headwinds associated with one market, but part of the EBITDA expansion opportunities for 2026 relates to contractual adjustments in that market [36] Question: What was the unfavorable impact in Q3 related to prior periods? - The total unfavorable impact in Q3 was $24 million, with a $21 million impact from mid-year true-ups [40] Question: What are the PMPM revenue growth expectations in 2026? - The aggregate expected improvement in premium is about 5%, with further guidance on coding improvements to be provided in the next quarter [45]

Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for Q3 2025 was $345.3 million, a decrease of 4.8% from $362.1 million in Q3 2024[22] - Capitated revenue for Q3 2025 was $341.6 million, down 4.5% from $357.7 million in Q3 2024[22] - Net loss for Q3 2025 was $69.5 million, compared to a net loss of $102.9 million in Q3 2024, representing a 32.5% improvement[22] - Operating loss for Q3 2025 was $44.2 million, an improvement from an operating loss of $107.0 million in Q3 2024[22] - The company reported a basic net loss per share of $9.67 for Q3 2025, compared to $14.36 for Q3 2024[22] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company reported a net loss of $157.4 million, an improvement from a net loss of $181.2 million for the same period in 2024, representing a decrease of approximately 13.1%[38] - The company recorded a net loss of $37,874 thousand for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, compared to a net loss of $23,303 thousand for the quarter ending June 30, 2025[27] - The company has experienced losses since inception, with a net loss of $69.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $102.9 million for the same period in 2024[38] Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets decreased to $135.6 million as of September 30, 2025, from $184.1 million as of December 31, 2024, a decline of 26.3%[19] - Total liabilities increased to $664.6 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $633.9 million as of December 31, 2024, an increase of 4.8%[19] - The accumulated deficit increased to $575.6 million as of September 30, 2025, from $503.2 million as of December 31, 2024[19] - Total assets decreased to $683.6 million as of September 30, 2025, from $783.4 million as of December 31, 2024, a decline of 12.7%[19] - The total stockholders' equity as of September 30, 2025, was reported at $(18,686) thousand, indicating a deficit situation[27] - The company reported a working capital deficit of $288.3 million as of September 30, 2025, highlighting significant liquidity challenges[39] Revenue and Membership - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $345,253,000, a decrease of 4.7% from $362,124,000 in the same period of 2024[52] - Capitated revenue accounted for 98.9% of total revenue in Q3 2025, totaling $341,555,000, compared to 98.8% or $357,706,000 in Q3 2024[52] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue was $1,074,266,000, down 4.9% from $1,129,769,000 in the same period of 2024[52] - Average at-risk membership decreased to 115,900 in Q3 2025 from 128,400 in Q3 2024, representing a decline of 9.7%[149] - The company operates in the $1,030 billion Medicare market, focusing on the Medicare Advantage (MA) segment, which comprises approximately 51% of the overall market, equating to nearly 35 million eligible lives in 2025[110] - As of September 30, 2025, the company has expanded its primary care physician (PCP) network to approximately 2,700 physicians across 24 markets, serving around 116,000 at-risk members[113] Expenses and Cost Management - Medical claims expense for Q3 2025 was $337.143 million, down from $357.166 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a decrease of 5.6%[87] - Medical expenses represent 92% of the total operating expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, highlighting the importance of managing healthcare costs effectively[128] - The company expects its corporate general and administrative expenses to decrease as a percentage of revenue over time as membership grows and operational efficiencies are realized[130] - Medical expenses for Q3 2025 were $369.8 million, a decrease of $32.1 million, or 8%, compared to $401.9 million in Q3 2024, driven by a reduction in at-risk members[175] Financing and Capital Structure - The company is exploring raising additional capital through a combination of debt financing and equity issuances to support future operations[39] - Long-term debt increased to $312.2 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $198.0 million on December 31, 2024, representing a 57.5% increase[66] - The net long-term debt after accounting for unamortized costs is $214.2 million, up from $108.9 million, indicating a 96.5% increase year-over-year[66] - The company raised $30.0 million through the VGS 4 Promissory Note, with a first tranche of $15.0 million drawn on February 18, 2025, and a second tranche of $15.0 million drawn on March 14, 2025[188] - The VGS 4 Promissory Note has an interest rate of 19.5% per annum, with interest payable quarterly starting March 31, 2025[188] - The company also entered into the VGS 5 Promissory Note, providing for funding of up to $70.0 million, with the first tranche of $15.0 million drawn on May 29, 2025[193] Operational Challenges and Future Outlook - The company expects to continue incurring net losses and negative cash flows from operating activities in accordance with its operating plan[209] - The company has substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern within one year from the issuance of its financial statements[209] - The company recorded a premium deficiency reserve adjustment of $(36.7) million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a reserve of $15.8 million for the same period in 2024[38] - The company anticipates that PMPM revenue will improve as it better understands and assesses the health status of its members through its care model[127]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $345.3 million, a decrease of 5% compared to the same quarter last year[6]. - Total operating revenue for Q3 2025 was $345.3 million, a decrease of 4.8% from $362.1 million in Q3 2024[22]. - Capitated revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1.06 billion, down 4.8% from $1.12 billion in the same period of 2024[22]. - Capitated revenue for Q3 2025 was $341,555 thousand, down from $357,706 thousand in Q3 2024, reflecting a 4.3% decline[29]. - Net loss for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $157.4 million, compared to a net loss of $181.2 million in the same period of 2024[24]. - Net loss for Q3 2025 was $69,461 thousand, a decrease from a net loss of $102,850 thousand in Q3 2024, representing a 32% improvement[26]. - Adjusted EBITDA loss for Q3 2025 was $45.9 million, or $132 PMPM, with year-to-date Normalized Adjusted EBITDA at a loss of $70.1 million[6]. - Adjusted EBITDA loss for Q3 2025 was $45,911 thousand, an improvement from a loss of $71,000 thousand in Q3 2024, indicating a 35% reduction in losses[26]. - Normalized adjusted EBITDA loss for Q3 2025 was $48,431 thousand, compared to $75,797 thousand in Q3 2024, indicating a 36% improvement[26]. Medical Margin and Costs - Medical margin for Q3 2025 was $4.4 million, or $13 PMPM, impacted by unfavorable mid-year settlement adjustments[6]. - Medical margin for fiscal 2025 is expected to range from $67 million to $82 million[5]. - Medical margin for Q3 2025 increased to $4,412 thousand compared to $540 thousand in Q3 2024, showing a significant improvement[29]. - Medical claims expense for Q3 2025 was $337,143 thousand, slightly lower than $357,166 thousand in Q3 2024, reflecting a 5.6% decrease[29]. - The company continues to see stable medical cost trends and strengthening operating discipline[2]. Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets decreased to $135.6 million as of September 30, 2025, from $184.1 million as of December 31, 2024[19]. - Total liabilities increased to $664.6 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $633.9 million as of December 31, 2024[19]. - The company’s total stockholders' equity showed a deficit of $18.7 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to a positive equity of $75.9 million as of December 31, 2024[19]. Interest and Expenses - The company incurred interest expense of $20.5 million in Q3 2025, significantly higher than $5.6 million in Q3 2024[22]. - Interest expense, net for Q3 2025 was $20,527 thousand, significantly higher than $5,647 thousand in Q3 2024, marking an increase of 264%[26]. - Total operating expense for Q3 2025 was $389,476 thousand, down from $469,114 thousand in Q3 2024, a decrease of 17%[33]. - Adjusted operating expense for Q3 2025 was $21,219 thousand, down from $31,552 thousand in Q3 2024, a reduction of 32.7%[33]. Membership and Network - Average at-risk membership was approximately 116,000 members for Q3 2025, reflecting a 10% decrease year-over-year due to intentional network and payer rationalization[6]. - P3 Health Partners operates with a network of over 2,700 affiliated primary care providers across four states[10]. Future Outlook - The company identified $120 to $170 million in EBITDA expansion opportunities, positioning for sustainable profitability in 2026 and beyond[2]. - Fiscal 2025 guidance estimates total revenues between $1,400 million and $1,450 million, with an adjusted EBITDA loss projected between $110 million and $95 million[5]. - Medical margin PMPM for Q3 2025 was $13, up from $1 in Q3 2024, representing a substantial increase[29]. Conference Call - Management will host a conference call on November 14, 2025, to discuss these results and future outlook[9].

Core Insights - P3 Health Partners reported continued operational progress and expansion of its Care Enablement Model, with a projected EBITDA expansion opportunity of $120 to $170 million, positioning the company for sustainable profitability in 2026 and beyond [2][4]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, P3 Health Partners had approximately 116,000 at-risk members, a 10% decrease from the previous year, attributed to intentional network and payer rationalization [5]. - Total revenue for the quarter was $345.3 million, reflecting a 5% decrease compared to the same quarter last year, primarily due to the reduction in membership and unfavorable mid-year settlement adjustments [5]. - The medical margin for Q3 2025 was $4.4 million, or $13 PMPM, with stable underlying medical cost trends when normalized for prior-year items [5][23]. - Adjusted EBITDA loss for the quarter was $45.9 million, or $132 PMPM, with a year-to-date normalized adjusted EBITDA loss of $70.1 million, or $67 PMPM [5][21]. Revised Fiscal Guidance - The company revised its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting total revenues between $1.4 billion and $1.45 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA loss expected to range from $(110) million to $(95) million [4][6]. - The medical margin is anticipated to be between $67 million and $82 million for the year, with a per-member-per-month (PMPM) medical margin ranging from $48 to $59 [4]. Conference Call Announcement - Management will host a conference call and webcast on November 14, 2025, at 8:00 AM ET to discuss the financial results and operational updates [7]. Company Overview - P3 Health Partners is a physician-led population health management company with a network of over 2,700 affiliated primary care providers across four states, focusing on value-based care coordination to improve patient outcomes and lower costs [8].

Summary of P3 Health Partners Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: P3 Health Partners (NasdaqCM: PIII) - **Industry**: Healthcare, specifically focused on Medicare and value-based care for seniors - **Market Presence**: Operating in four states with 120,000 full-risk lives and 2,800 primary care providers (PCPs) [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Size**: The Medicare market is valued at $1.1 trillion, with a significant portion transitioning to Medicare Advantage (MA) [3][5] - **Growth Potential**: P3 Health Partners has the potential to care for approximately 2 million seniors without expanding into new geographies, indicating substantial growth opportunities within existing markets [4] - **Business Model**: The company operates on a full-risk model across Medicare Advantage and ACO REACH, aiming for profitability through strategic growth and operational efficiencies [5][6] - **Medicare Advantage Trends**: Enrollment in Medicare Advantage has increased from 35% in 2017 to 54% in 2025, with total enrollment growing from 18 million to 34 million [7][8] - **Cost Management**: The average cost per Medicare beneficiary has decreased from projected $22,000 to $12,000, indicating the effectiveness of value-based care models [9][10] Industry Dynamics - **Consolidation Trends**: The healthcare industry is experiencing consolidation, which may create new partnership opportunities for P3 Health Partners [6] - **Physician Challenges**: There is a noted lack of resources and expertise for physicians transitioning to value-based care, with 50% of physicians experiencing burnout [12][13] - **Patient Access**: Up to 25% of Americans lack access to primary care, highlighting the need for improved healthcare delivery systems [12] Operational Strategies - **Value-Based Care Platform**: P3 Health Partners utilizes a value-based care platform to enhance patient outcomes and streamline operations for providers [14][17] - **Data Utilization**: The company leverages data analytics to improve care management and optimize risk stratification for high-risk patients [15][16] - **Community Integration**: P3 focuses on creating unified care networks that connect patients with community resources and support services [13][23] Financial Performance and Projections - **EBITDA Improvement Plan**: The company has outlined a $130 million EBITDA improvement plan, with $70 million still in progress for 2025 [24][25] - **Future Opportunities**: An additional $120 to $170 million in EBITDA improvement opportunities have been identified for 2026, focusing on operational performance and quality management [25][26] - **Revenue Guidance**: Expected total revenue for 2025 is projected between $1.35 billion and $1.5 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA range of -$69 million to -$39 million [27] Market Challenges - **Oregon Market**: Oregon is currently the only market experiencing losses, with efforts underway to achieve breakeven by 2026 [30][31] - **Membership Trends**: The company anticipates a decline in membership in 2025 but expects growth to resume in 2026 and 2027 [30] Conclusion - P3 Health Partners is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for value-based care in the Medicare sector, with a clear strategy for operational improvements and market expansion. The company is focused on enhancing patient outcomes while navigating industry challenges and optimizing financial performance.

Core Insights - Catalyst Solutions successfully launched the Professional Health Partners Services (P3) Implementation in May 2025, marking a significant achievement in supporting P3 Health Partners in delivering high-quality services to Medicare members across multiple states [1][2]. Company Overview - Catalyst Solutions specializes in health plan operations, IT, and outsourcing, with over 26 years of experience. The company aims to drive measurable improvements in health outcomes, member and provider experience, and cost efficiency [5]. - P3 Health Partners is a leading population health management organization with a network of over 2,800 affiliated primary care providers across the United States, focusing on value-based care coordination and administrative services [7]. Implementation Details - The P3 implementation involves support across Configurations, Claims, and the Provider Call Center, covering eleven active health plans and serving nearly 68,000 members, with a new Medicare plan set to launch soon [2]. - The implementation was completed in just 60 days, showcasing Catalyst's ability to manage complex projects under tight deadlines through meticulous planning and the use of AI and process improvements [4]. Partnership and Commitment - The partnership between Catalyst and P3 is characterized by a strong commitment to ensuring accurate and timely payments, reflecting a shared goal of enhancing service quality [3][4]. - Catalyst employs a hybrid onshore/offshore model to provide scalable, flexible, and cost-efficient services while aligning with client business hours [3].

Company Performance - P3 Health Partners Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $6.23 per share, significantly worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $3.29, representing an earnings surprise of -89.36% [1] - The company's revenues for the quarter ended June 2025 were $355.79 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.03%, and down from $379.16 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, P3 Health Partners has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates and has topped revenue estimates only once [2] Stock Movement and Outlook - P3 Health Partners shares have declined approximately 36.9% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a 10% gain in the S&P 500 [3] - The company's future stock performance will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the trends in earnings estimate revisions [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$5.04 on revenues of $342.9 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$16.60 on revenues of $1.43 billion [7] Industry Context - The Medical Info Systems industry, to which P3 Health Partners belongs, is currently ranked in the top 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact P3 Health Partners' stock performance [5][6]