Why Packaging Stocks Are Today's Leading Decliners. The Tariff Turmoil Doesn't Help. - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# Packaging Stocks Are Today's Leading Decliners. The Tariff Turmoil Doesn't Help.By [Nate Wolf]ShareResize-- ...

Market Overview - Stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling 0.25%, S&P 500 futures down 0.22%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declining 0.35% amid renewed tariff-related uncertainty following President Trump's announcement [3][4] - U.S. Customs and Border Protection stated that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act will no longer be collected starting Tuesday [3] Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced an increase in the global tariff level from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court struck down most of the tariffs imposed last year [4] Travel Sector Impact - The ongoing shutdown of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is creating uncertainty in airport operations and the travel sector, with expedited screening programs initially affected [5][6] - TSA PreCheck remains operational but may face adjustments due to potential staffing shortages, while Global Entry has been suspended [6][7] Bitcoin ETF Withdrawals - Investors have withdrawn nearly $3.8 billion from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past five weeks, marking the longest streak of outflows since February 2025 [9] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has led the declines, shedding approximately $2.13 billion during this period [9][10] Company-Specific Movements - Novo Nordisk's stock tumbled by 15% after its next-generation obesity drug CagriSema underperformed compared to Eli Lilly's competing treatment in a phase 3 trial [11][12] - Top gainers in premarket trading included Eli Lilly (+2.34%), Revvity (+1.95%), and Corning (+1.86%), while decliners included Smurfit Westrock (-6.54%) and Packaging Corporation of America (-5.59%) [4]

LAKE FOREST, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Packaging Corporation of America's (NYSE: PKG) Chief Executive Officer, Mark Kowlzan, will speak at Bank of America Securities' Global Agriculture and Materials Conference being held at The Conrad Fort Lauderdale Beach in Fort Lauderdale, FL on Thursday, February 26, 2026. After Mr. Kowlzan's Fireside Chat, he and Executive Vice President and CFO, Kent Pflederer will participate in a Q&A session. Immediately following, they will be hosting a series of 1 x. ...

Group 1 - Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) is recognized as one of the top eight paper and plastic packaging stocks to buy according to hedge funds [1] - Michael Roxland from Truist Financial reduced his price target for PKG from $273 to $270 while maintaining a Buy rating despite the company missing its fourth-quarter earnings expectations [1][3] - Roxland noted that the bearish trend in share price following the earnings announcement presents a compelling buying opportunity, with a revised price target indicating a 13% upside potential [3] Group 2 - Citi analyst Anthony Pettinari raised his price target for PKG from $226 to $227, maintaining a Neutral rating due to the company's fourth-quarter results missing consensus estimates [3][4] - Pettinari expressed a cautious outlook for Q1 but anticipates positive indicators ahead of expected price hikes in March [4] Group 3 - Packaging Corporation of America specializes in selling containerboard, uncoated freesheet paper, and corrugated packaging products, serving both industrial and consumer sectors [5]

Core View - BofA analyst George Staphos raised the price target for Packaging Corp. (PKG) to $255 from $238 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares [1] Company Updates - The firm updated its views on Packaging Corp. and Greif (GEF) following the companies' calendar Q4 calls [1]

Core Viewpoint - Truist has lowered the price target for Packaging Corp. (PKG) to $270 from $273 while maintaining a Buy rating after the company's Q4 earnings miss, indicating a more attractive entry point for investors due to strong demand projected for 2026 [1] Group 1 - Truist's price target adjustment reflects a decrease from $273 to $270 for Packaging Corp. (PKG) [1] - The firm maintains a Buy rating on PKG shares despite the earnings miss in Q4 [1] - The post-earnings decline is seen as an opportunity for investors, with the company well-positioned for strong demand in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Truist Financial has set a price target of $270 for Packaging Corp of America (NYSE:PKG), indicating a potential increase of about 22.72% from the current stock price of $220.02 [1][6] - PKG reported a significant increase in fourth-quarter net sales, reaching $2.4 billion in 2025, up from $2.1 billion in 2024, largely due to the successful integration of acquired Greif assets [2][6] - Despite a decrease in fourth-quarter earnings per share by $0.15, PKG is expected to enhance its cost structure following the completion of Wallula restructuring activities by mid-February [3][6] Group 2 - PKG's stock is currently priced at $220.55, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.35% or $2.94, with a trading range over the past year between a high of $231.12 and a low of $172.72 [4] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $19.84 billion and a trading volume of 373,625 shares, positioning it as a significant player in the packaging industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Källenius rejected the Trump administration's proposal to relocate the company's headquarters to the United States, emphasizing the company's deep-rooted history in Germany and its global presence [1][3][4]. Company Position - Källenius stated that while Mercedes-Benz is a global company, it cannot be "uprooted" from its origins in Swabia, Germany, where its headquarters are located [1][3]. - The company traces its roots back to 1886, marking the beginning of the automobile industry with the formation of Benz & Cie. and Daimler-Motoren-Gesellschaft [8][11]. Industry Context - The proposal from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reflects the intense competition for capital that European industrial centers are facing [4]. - The Trump administration has utilized tariffs to incentivize companies to expand manufacturing operations in the U.S., impacting various sectors including automotive and technology [5][6]. - Several major corporations, both U.S. and foreign, have announced plans to increase manufacturing capacity in the U.S. since the Trump administration's return to office, highlighting a trend towards domestic production [6][10].

Core Insights - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.32 for Q4 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.41 and reflecting a 6% year-over-year decline due to lower volume and unfavorable production results from the acquired Greif Inc. business [1][10] Financial Performance - Q4 sales increased by 10.1% year-over-year to $2.36 billion, but this figure fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.42 billion [3][10] - The cost of products sold rose by 14.3% year-over-year to $1.92 billion, leading to a gross profit decline of 4.7% to $448 million [3] - Adjusted operating income for Q4 was $310.2 million, a 2.1% increase from $303.9 million in Q4 2024 [4] Segment Performance - In the Packaging segment, sales rose by 10.8% year-over-year to $2.19 billion, driven by higher prices, although lower production and sales volume offset this growth [5] - Total corrugated product shipments fell by 1.7% year-over-year, but including the Greif business, shipments per day increased by 17% [6] - The Paper segment reported revenues of $154 million, up 1.8% year-over-year, but lower than estimates, with adjusted operating profit decreasing to $33 million from $35 million in the prior year [7] Annual Performance - For FY 2025, PKG's adjusted EPS was $9.84, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.93, while total sales reached $8.99 billion, reflecting a 7.2% year-over-year increase but missing the consensus estimate of $9.06 billion [8] Cash Flow and Outlook - The company ended 2025 with a cash balance of $668 million, down from $852 million at the end of 2024 [9] - For Q1 2026, PKG expects higher year-over-year volume in its legacy corrugated products plants, projecting an EPS of $2.20 [11] Stock Performance - PKG's shares have declined by 3.8% over the past year, compared to an 8.6% decline in the industry [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net income was $102 million or $1.13 per share, while excluding special items, it was $209 million or $2.32 per share, compared to $222 million or $2.47 per share in Q4 2024 [3][4] - Fourth quarter net sales increased to $2.4 billion in 2025 from $2.1 billion in 2024, and total company EBITDA, excluding special items, rose to $486 million from $439 million [4][5] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $9 billion, up from $8.4 billion in 2024, and EBITDA increased to $1.86 billion from $1.64 billion [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the packaging segment, Q4 EBITDA, excluding special items, was $476 million with sales of $2.2 billion, resulting in a margin of 21.7%, compared to last year's EBITDA of $426 million and sales of $2 billion [7] - For the full year 2025, packaging segment EBITDA was $1.83 billion with sales of $8.3 billion, a margin of 22.1%, compared to $1.6 billion and $7.7 billion in 2024 [8] - The paper segment's Q4 EBITDA, excluding special items, was $37 million with sales of $154 million, a margin of 24.2%, compared to $39 million and $151 million in Q4 2024 [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices were $0.50 per share above Q4 2024 but down $0.32 per share compared to Q3 2025 [11] - Export containerboard prices were flat year-over-year and down $0.01 from Q3 2025, with export sales volume up 12,000 tons from Q3 2025 but down 15,000 tons from Q4 2024 [11] - Legacy box plant shipments were down 1.7% compared to last year's record Q4, but overall shipments for 2025 were flat with 2024 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating the acquired Greif operations and improving operational efficiency, with plans for gas turbine energy projects to enhance energy independence and reduce costs [10][23] - The company aims to maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation, investing in growth while returning value to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [24] - The company is optimistic about demand trends heading into 2026, with expectations for year-over-year growth in corrugated volume and strong shipment volume from acquired plants [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that operational performance was strong across the mill system, and they expect to operate at full capacity with improved cost structures from the Wallula restructuring [9][26] - The company anticipates challenges from rising costs in labor, energy, and materials, but expects to benefit from price increases in containerboard starting March [25][26] - Management expressed confidence in the underlying demand trends, citing improvements in consumer sentiment and GDP growth as positive indicators for future performance [53][65] Other Important Information - Cash provided by operations reached a record $443 million in Q4, with free cash flow of $124 million after capital expenditures of $319 million [19] - The company ended the year with a cash balance of $668 million and liquidity of about $1.25 billion, with planned capital expenditures for 2026 estimated between $840 million and $870 million [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected increase in cost per ton in the containerboard business? - Management indicated uncertainty due to seasonal weather impacts and inflationary concerns but noted a potential increase of about $10 per ton [30][36] Question: How are winter storms impacting operations and guidance? - Management reported that winter storms caused some plants to be down, affecting shipments, but they are assessing the situation and expect to recover [32][34] Question: What is the status of the Greif acquisition and its impact on operations? - Management confirmed that they are discontinuing Greif's previous purchase commitments and are focused on integrating the acquired assets for improved operational efficiency [49][43] Question: How does the current demand environment compare to last year? - Management noted a more positive sentiment across the customer base, with improved visibility and predictability in demand compared to the previous year [72][73] Question: Are the recent price increases reflected in the Q1 guidance? - Management stated that the $70 per ton price increase effective March 1 is partially included in the Q1 guidance, but not the full benefit [56]