Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Summary [Consolidated Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=1.1_Consolidated_Financial_Highlights) Packaging Corporation of America reported Q3 2025 net income of $226.9 million, or $2.51 per share, on net sales of $2.3 billion, with adjusted net income at $246.7 million, or $2.73 per share | Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | | :----------------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | | Net Sales | $2.3 billion | $2.2 billion | | Net Income (GAAP) | $226.9 million | $238.1 million | | Diluted EPS (GAAP) | $2.51 | $2.64 | | Net Income (excl. special items) | $246.7 million | $238.8 million | | Diluted EPS (excl. special items) | $2.73 | $2.65 | [Diluted EPS Performance Analysis](index=1&type=section&id=1.2_Diluted_EPS_Performance_Analysis) The $0.08 per share increase in Q3 2025 diluted EPS, excluding special items, was primarily driven by improvements in PCA's legacy business earnings, partially offset by initial impacts from the Greif acquisition - Increase in Diluted EPS (excluding special items) YoY: **$0.08 per share**[3](index=3&type=chunk)[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Drivers of PCA's legacy earnings increase (per share): - Higher prices and mix (Packaging): **$0.73**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Lower fiber costs: **$0.16**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Higher prices and mix (Paper): **$0.02**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Lower maintenance outage expense: **$0.01**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Offsetting factors (per share): - Higher operating costs: **($0.33)**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Lower production and sales volume (Packaging): **($0.16)**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Higher depreciation expense: **($0.07)**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Higher freight expense: **($0.07)**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Higher fixed and other expense: **($0.07)**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Higher interest expense (excluding Greif acquisition debt): **($0.02)**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Lower production volume (Paper): **($0.01)**[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Greif Acquisition Impact](index=1&type=section&id=1.3_Greif_Acquisition_Impact) The Greif containerboard business acquisition, completed on September 2, 2025, negatively impacted Q3 2025 earnings by $0.11 per share, primarily due to depreciation, interest expense, and costs associated with extended mill outages and income recognition timing - Greif acquisition impact on Q3 2025 earnings: **($0.11) per share**[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Specific Greif-related costs: - Depreciation and amortization expense: **$12 million** (**$0.09 per diluted share**)[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Additional interest expense: **$8 million** (**$0.06 per diluted share**)[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Outages and timing effects: approximately **$12 million** (**$0.10 per diluted share**)[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Performance Against Guidance](index=1&type=section&id=1.4_Performance_Against_Guidance) Excluding the Greif acquisition and special items, Q3 2025 results exceeded guidance by $0.04 per share, driven by favorable price and mix in the Packaging segment and lower freight costs - Q3 2025 results (excluding Greif acquisition and special items) were **$0.04 per share above guidance**[6](index=6&type=chunk) - Third quarter guidance: **$2.80 per share**[6](index=6&type=chunk) - Primary reasons for outperformance: Favorable price and mix in the Packaging segment and lower freight costs[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Segmental Operational Overview](index=2&type=section&id=1.5_Segmental_Operational_Overview) The Packaging segment saw increased operating income and total shipments (including acquired business), while the Paper segment experienced a slight decrease in operating income despite a QoQ sales volume increase [Packaging Segment Operations](index=2&type=section&id=1.5.1_Packaging_Segment_Operations) This section details the operational and financial performance of the Packaging segment, including income, EBITDA, and shipment and production volumes | Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | | :------------------------------------ | :------------ | :------------ | | Segment Operating Income (GAAP) | $327.5 million | $320.7 million | | Segment Operating Income (excl. special items) | $347.9 million | $321.6 million | | EBITDA (excl. special items) | $491.8 million | $445.6 million | - Legacy PCA corrugated products shipments: Down **2.7% per day** and **1.1% overall** compared to Q3 2024[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Total corrugated products shipments (including acquired business): Up **3.7% per day** and **5.3% in total**[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Containerboard production: - Legacy PCA mills: **1,255,000 tons**[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Acquired mills: **47,000 tons**[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Containerboard inventory in legacy PCA system: **417,000 tons** (up **56,000 tons** from Q3 2024 and **15,000 tons** from Q2 2025)[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Inventory at newly acquired facilities: **86,000 tons**[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Paper Segment Operations](index=2&type=section&id=1.5.2_Paper_Segment_Operations) This section outlines the financial and operational performance of the Paper segment, including operating income, EBITDA, and sales volume trends | Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | | :------------------------------------ | :------------ | :------------ | | Segment Operating Income (GAAP) | $35.6 million | $38.5 million | | Segment Operating Income (excl. special items) | $35.6 million | $38.5 million | | EBITDA (excl. special items) | $40.1 million | $43.1 million | - Sales volume: Down **0.7%** from Q3 2024, but up **10%** compared to Q2 2025[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Management Commentary](index=2&type=section&id=1.6_Management_Commentary) CEO Mark W. Kowlzan highlighted a strong quarter for the legacy PCA packaging business with improving corrugated volume and efficient mill operations, also noting the successful closure and initial integration efforts for the Greif acquisition, despite significant short-term impacts from mill refurbishment - Legacy PCA packaging business had a 'very strong quarter' with corrugated volume improving and largely on plan[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Export containerboard sales volume remained relatively low due to continued trade uncertainty[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Containerboard mills operated very efficiently, ending the quarter at targeted inventory levels[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Paper segment delivered an 'outstanding quarter' with strong sales volume and operating performance[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Greif acquisition integration involved extended outages at Massillon (five weeks for refurbishment) and Riverville (five days for reliability improvements), significantly impacting September results but showing improved performance benefits[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Acquired corrugated business achieved strong volumes and pricing consistent with expectations[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Fourth Quarter 2025 Outlook](index=2&type=section&id=1.7_Fourth_Quarter_2025_Outlook) For Q4 2025, PCA anticipates earnings of $2.40 per share, excluding special items, with expectations including higher per-day corrugated shipments, increased export containerboard sales (though still relatively low), lower legacy containerboard production due to maintenance, and seasonally lower Packaging segment prices and higher energy/fiber costs - Expected fourth quarter earnings: **$2.40 per share**, excluding special items[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Corrugated shipments: Expected to be higher per-day, but with three fewer shipping days than Q3[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Export containerboard sales: Expected to be higher than Q3, but relatively low compared to traditional Q4 volume[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Legacy containerboard production: Slightly lower than Q3 due to a maintenance outage at the DeRidder mill[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Maintenance outage expenses: Expected to be higher by approximately **($0.29) per share**[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Packaging segment prices: Expected to be lower due to a seasonally less rich mix[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Energy and fiber costs: Expected to be seasonally higher[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Freight and other operating costs: Expected to be relatively flat[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Paper segment: Expected to have lower production and sales volumes than the seasonally stronger Q3, with flat pricing[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Acquired business results: Expected to show significant improvement, despite continued lower production and higher maintenance from the Massillon mill outage and seasonally lower corrugated volumes[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Special items: Expect to incur acquisition and integration-related costs for the Greif acquisition and charges related to corrugated products facilities closures[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Company Profile](index=4&type=section&id=1.8_Company_Profile) Packaging Corporation of America is a leading North American producer of containerboard products and uncoated freesheet paper, operating ten mills and 93 corrugated products plants - Market position: Third largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet paper in North America[12](index=12&type=

Core Insights - Packaging Corporation of America reported a third quarter 2025 net income of $226.9 million, translating to $2.51 per share, with a net income of $246.7 million or $2.73 per share when excluding special items [1] - The company's third quarter net sales reached $2.3 billion in 2025, compared to $2.2 billion in 2024, indicating a year-over-year growth [1] Financial Performance - Reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $2.51 [1] - The EPS for the same period in 2024 was not explicitly stated, but the company experienced a positive change in earnings per share [1]

Core Insights - Packaging Corp. (PKG) is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, particularly in the upcoming earnings report [1] - The company has a history of beating earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 3.08% over the last two quarters [1] Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, Packaging Corp. achieved earnings of $2.48 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.44 per share, resulting in a surprise of 1.64% [2] - In the previous quarter, the company reported earnings of $2.31 per share against an expectation of $2.21 per share, delivering a surprise of 4.52% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Estimates for Packaging Corp. have been trending higher, influenced by its earnings surprise history [5] - The company currently has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.28%, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts regarding its earnings prospects [8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) suggests a strong possibility of another earnings beat in the upcoming report [8] Statistical Insights - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7]

Core Insights - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 22, with revenue estimates at $2.26 billion, reflecting a 3.4% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $2.83, indicating a 6.8% increase from the previous year [1][5]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG's third-quarter revenues is $2.26 billion, which shows a growth of 3.4% compared to the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is $2.83 per share, representing a year-over-year growth of 6.8% [1]. - PKG has a history of earnings surprises, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 2.9% [3][4]. Segment Analysis - The Packaging segment is expected to report revenues of $2.06 billion, which is a 2.6% increase from the prior year, despite a predicted volume decline of 2.5% [8][9]. - Operating income for the Packaging segment is estimated at $340 million, reflecting a 6.2% growth year-over-year [9]. - The Paper segment is projected to have revenues of $151 million, down 5.4% from the previous year, with an operating income estimate of $38 million, indicating a 1.2% decline [10]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Greif, Inc.'s containerboard business, finalized in early September, is expected to positively impact PKG's earnings immediately, contributing to the Packaging segment's performance [7]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, PKG shares have decreased by 2.5%, contrasting with a 34.6% decline in the industry [11].

Core Insights - Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is closing multiple manufacturing sites by the end of the year, including a full-line plant in Allentown, Pennsylvania, affecting 60 employees, and another in Salisbury, North Carolina, impacting 108 workers [1][2] - PCA's recent closures follow a corrugated plant shutdown in Georgia earlier this year, indicating a trend of downsizing in response to lower demand [2] - The company reported downtime at mills to align with reduced demand, leading to declines in total containerboard production year-over-year and quarter-to-quarter [3] - The industry has seen nearly a 10% reduction in North American containerboard capacity due to site closures announced this year [3] - Despite the closures, PCA is expanding through the completion of a $1.8 billion acquisition of Greif's containerboard business, which includes mills in Virginia and Ohio [4]

Core Insights - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is valued at $19.3 billion and is a leading U.S. producer of containerboard and corrugated packaging, serving industries such as food, beverages, and industrial goods [1] Financial Performance - Analysts expect PKG to report adjusted earnings of $2.84 per share for Q3, reflecting a 7.2% increase from $2.65 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For the full fiscal year 2025, earnings are projected to grow to $10.38 per share, a 14.8% increase from $9.04 per share in fiscal 2024, with further growth expected to $11.98 per share in fiscal 2026, representing a 15.4% year-over-year increase [3] Stock Performance - PKG's stock has gained 1.3% over the past 52 weeks, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 Index's 17.6% gains and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund's 21% increase during the same period [4] - Following the release of Q2 results, PKG's stock prices remained mostly flat, with Q2 topline revenue at $2.2 billion, up 4.6% year-over-year, exceeding Street expectations by 49 basis points [5] Segment Performance - The Packaging segment's adjusted EBITDA increased by 13.2% year-over-year to $452.9 million, contributing to a 12.7% growth in adjusted EPS to $2.48, which surpassed consensus estimates by 1.6% [6] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating for PKG, with six "Strong Buys" and five "Holds" among the 11 analysts covering the stock. The mean price target is $225.50, indicating a modest 4.6% upside potential from current price levels [6]

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan's Overweight rating on Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) highlights the importance of the packaging industry, which is crucial for modern trade, consumption, and sustainability [1] - PKG is recognized as a leader in the corrugated packaging sector, showcasing its role as a bellwether for industry transformation [1] Company Performance - PKG achieved a 21% return on equity and has a 23-year history of dividend payments, demonstrating strong financial health [2] - The recent $1.2 billion acquisition of Greif's containerboard assets reflects the company's commitment to scale, efficiency, and sustainability [2] - In Q4 2024, PKG reported a 9.1% year-on-year growth in corrugated product shipments, supported by favorable pricing and product mix [3] - The company is implementing cost-control measures, such as closing a Georgia-based plant, while simultaneously expanding capacity through acquisitions [3] - Analysts note PKG's unique ability to generate reliable cash flow while pursuing growth opportunities, distinguishing it as both a value and growth investment [4] Industry Trends - The corrugated packaging industry is experiencing a structural reset, with competitors reducing capacity and focusing on margins, which benefits larger players like PKG [5] - Demand for corrugated packaging is stabilizing, with U.S. containerboard production increasing by 4.2% and exports rising by 16.2% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [5] - The global corrugated packaging market is expected to grow at a 5% compound annual rate from 2025 to 2034, driven by e-commerce and sustainability initiatives [6] - North America's market is projected to exceed $54 billion by 2034, fueled by innovations in lightweight materials and recyclable coatings [6] Sustainability and Competitive Advantage - Sustainability is becoming a key factor in company valuations, with PKG utilizing recycled fibers and enhancing supply chain efficiency to meet environmental regulations [7] - The acquisition of Greif's containerboard assets is part of a broader trend of consolidation in the industry, allowing PKG to improve its capacity and bargaining power [8]

Company Overview - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has a market cap of $19 billion, making it the third-largest producer of containerboard and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet paper in North America [1] - The company operates through two main segments: Packaging and Paper, offering a wide range of corrugated packaging products, commodity and specialty papers, and communication papers [1] Market Position - PKG is classified as a "large-cap" stock, serving diverse industries including food, beverages, retail, and industrial markets across the United States [2] - The company's shares have declined 15.8% from its 52-week high of $250.82, but have increased 13.5% over the past three months, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrials Average's 9.8% return during the same period [3] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, PKG reported adjusted EPS of $2.48, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase, with revenue growing 4.6% to $2.2 billion, driven by stronger pricing and mix across both segments [5] - The gross margin improved to 22.2%, and the company provided a Q3 EPS guidance of $2.80, which further encouraged investors [5] Competitive Landscape - Rival International Paper Company (IP) has underperformed compared to PKG, with IP stock dropping 13.7% YTD and 7.1% over the past 52 weeks [6] - Despite PKG's stock underperformance relative to the Dow over the past year, analysts maintain a moderately optimistic outlook, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a mean price target of $223.67, indicating a 5.9% premium to current levels [6] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, PKG stock is down 6.2%, lagging behind the Dow's 8.9% rise, and has decreased over 2% over the past 52 weeks compared to the Dow's 10.2% gain [4] - The stock has been trading mostly above its 50-day moving average since mid-May [4]

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Core Viewpoint - Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE: PKG) is scheduled to hold a conference call on October 23, 2025, to discuss its third quarter 2025 results [1] Group 1 - The conference call will be led by Mark Kowlzan [1] - Third quarter earnings results will be released after the market closes on October 22, 2025 [1] - Pre-registration for the conference call is available through a provided link [1]