Fe b ru a ry 2 5 , 2 0 2 5 Q4'24 Earnings Presentation Important Information Forward-Looking Statements 1 Permian Resources – Company Overview |  | Largest pure-play Delaware Basin E&P company with | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Premier Delaware | ~450,000 net acres, ~88,000 net royalty acres and | PR Key Statistics | | | | ~370 MBoe/d of FY'25E production | | | | Basin Pure-Play  | Scale and balance sheet strength provide flexibility to | | | | E&P Company | quickly respond to a range of market condit ...

Core Insights - Permian Resources reported $1.3 billion in revenue for Q4 2024, a year-over-year increase of 15.4% and an EPS of $0.36, slightly up from $0.35 a year ago [1] - The revenue was a -1.98% surprise compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.32 billion, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.34 by +5.88% [1] Financial Performance - Average daily net production totaled 368,414 BOE/D, surpassing the seven-analyst average estimate of 358,924.8 BOE/D [4] - Natural gas production averaged 634,546 Mcf/D, exceeding the six-analyst average estimate of 628,850.1 Mcf/D [4] - NGL production averaged 91,382 BBL/D, above the six-analyst average estimate of 86,205.9 BBL/D [4] - Oil production averaged 171,274 BBL/D, compared to the six-analyst average estimate of 168,467.4 BBL/D [4] Pricing Metrics - Average sales price for gas, including derivative cash settlements, was $1.21, exceeding the $0.90 average estimate [4] - Average sales price for oil, including derivative cash settlements, was $70.75, slightly above the four-analyst average estimate of $70.39 [4] - Average sales price for oil was $69.66, compared to the three-analyst average estimate of $69.05 [4] - Average sales price for natural gas was $0.87, exceeding the three-analyst average estimate of $0.73 [4] - Average sales price for NGL was $24.05, above the two-analyst average estimate of $23.41 [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Permian Resources have returned -6.1% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite changed by -1.8% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Permian Resources reported quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.34 per share, and showing a slight increase from $0.35 per share a year ago, indicating a 5.88% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $1.3 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, which was 1.98% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but an increase from $1.12 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Permian Resources has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped revenue estimates twice [2] Stock Performance - Permian Resources shares have declined approximately 2.2% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for the stock is 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.40 on revenues of $1.36 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.63 on revenues of $5.51 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Permian Resources is mixed, which could change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently ranked in the top 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8]

Production and Reserves - Reported crude oil production of 171.3 MBbls/d and total average production of 368.4 MBoe/d for Q4 2024, representing a 63% and 77% increase year-over-year respectively[5] - 2025 production guidance set at 170 to 175 MBbls/d and 360 to 380 MBoe/d, indicating an 8% increase in annual production compared to 2024[11] - Total proved reserves increased to 1,027 MMBoe at year-end 2024, up from 925 MMBoe at the prior year-end[16] - Average daily net production for 2024 was 343,523 Boe/d, compared to 194,499 Boe/d in 2023, indicating a growth of about 76.7%[32] - Net average daily production guidance for 2025 is set at 360,000 to 380,000 Boe/d, with net average daily oil production expected to be between 170,000 and 175,000 Bbls/d[30] Financial Performance - Generated cash provided by operating activities of $872 million and adjusted free cash flow of $400 million in Q4 2024[10] - For the year ended December 31, 2024, oil sales reached $4.36 billion, a significant increase from $2.70 billion in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 61.7%[32] - The company reported total oil and gas sales of $5.00 billion for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $3.12 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-over-year increase of approximately 60.3%[32] - Operating revenues for Q4 2024 reached $1,296,081, a 15.4% increase from $1,122,686 in Q4 2023[36] - Net income attributable to Class A Common Stock for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $984,701, compared to $476,306 in 2023, representing a 106.5% increase[36] Cash Flow and Expenditures - Total cash capital expenditures for Q4 2024 were $504 million, with drilling and completion costs reduced to approximately $775 per lateral foot, a 3% decrease from the previous quarter[8] - Estimated fiscal year 2025 cash capital expenditure budget of $1.9 to $2.1 billion, maintaining a similar capital budget year-over-year[11] - Total cash capital expenditure program for 2025 is projected to be between $1.9 billion and $2.1 billion[30] - Cash and cash equivalents surged to $479,343 by December 31, 2024, compared to $73,290 at the end of 2023, marking a 553.5% increase[38] - The company reported a net cash provided by operating activities of $3,411,968 for 2024, up from $2,213,499 in 2023, a 54.1% increase[40] Costs and Expenses - Lease operating expenses for the three months ended December 31, 2024, were $5.42 per Boe, up from $4.97 per Boe in the same period of 2023[34] - Total operating expenses for the year increased to $3,256,575, up 60.9% from $2,024,596 in 2023[36] - Anticipated total controllable cash costs of $7.25 to $8.25 per Boe in 2025, reflecting a $0.10 per Boe reduction compared to 2024[13] - Total controllable cash costs for 2025 are expected to range from $7.25 to $8.25 per Boe[30] Shareholder Returns - Declared a base dividend of $0.15 per share, yielding 4.3%[5] - Basic weighted average shares of Class A Common Stock outstanding increased to 702,968,000 in Q4 2024 from 459,593,000 in Q4 2023[49] - Adjusted diluted weighted average shares outstanding for Q4 2024 were 847,094,000, up from 744,958,000 in Q4 2023[49] Debt and Assets - Long-term debt increased to $4,184,233 in 2024, compared to $3,848,781 in 2023, indicating an 8.7% rise[38] - Total assets grew to $16,897,900 in 2024, up from $14,965,578 in 2023, reflecting a 12.9% increase[38] Derivative Gains and Swaps - The company reported a non-cash derivative gain of $73,579,000 in Q4 2024, compared to a loss of $180,179,000 in Q4 2023[55] - As of December 31, 2024, the company has crude oil swaps totaling approximately 4,050,000 Bbls for January to March 2025 at a weighted average price of $75.21 per Bbl[56] - The company has natural gas swaps of 11,070,000 MMBtu for January to March 2025 at a weighted average price of $3.44 per MMBtu[58] - The crude oil basis differential swaps for January to March 2025 total 3,932,000 Bbls with a weighted average differential of $1.11 per Bbl[56] - The company has planned to enter into additional contracts for crude oil swaps with volumes of 4,140,000 Bbls for July to September 2025 at a price of $72.64 per Bbl[56]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings report for Permian Resources is anticipated to show a slight decline in earnings per share while revenues are expected to increase significantly year over year [1]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings are projected at $0.34 per share, reflecting a decrease of 2.9% compared to the same period last year [1]. - Revenue estimates stand at $1.32 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 17.8% [1]. - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 5.2% [1]. Production Metrics - Average daily net production is expected to reach 358,924.80 BOE/D, up from 285,161 BOE/D a year ago [4]. - Average daily net production volume for natural gas is forecasted at 628,850.10 Mcf/D, compared to 478,781 Mcf/D in the previous year [4]. - Average daily net production volume for NGL is estimated at 86,205.90 BBL/D, an increase from 68,774 BBL/D a year ago [5]. - Average daily net production volume for oil is projected at 168,467.40 BBL/D, up from 136,590 BBL/D in the same quarter last year [5]. Sales Price Estimates - Average sales price for oil, including derivative cash settlements, is expected to be $70.39, down from $77.14 a year ago [6]. - The average sales price for oil is projected at $69.05, compared to $76.61 in the previous year [6]. - Average sales price for NGL is anticipated to be $23.41, an increase from $21.57 a year ago [6]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Permian Resources have decreased by 7.8%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has seen a decline of 0.5% [7]. - Permian Resources currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [7].

Group 1 - The natural gas market in the Permian Basin faced significant challenges in 2024, with a lack of spare pipeline capacity leading to increased costs for those without prior contracts [1] - Despite rising commodity prices and shareholder dividends, investors are cautioned against chasing yield without thorough research, as mistakes can be costly [1] Group 2 - The platform offers deep dive analysis covering a wide range of companies in the oil and gas sector, including pipelines, renewables, and producers [2] - The EIA portfolio has outperformed benchmarks in six out of the past seven years, indicating the effectiveness of the actionable research provided [2]

Core Insights - Permian Resources (NYSE: PR) has shown strong operational performance in 2024, leading to an increase in oil production guidance by approximately 8% from its original guidance [2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The increase in oil production guidance is based on the guidance midpoint, indicating a positive outlook for the company's operational capabilities [2]. - Capital expenditures (capex) are expected to remain within the previously set limits, suggesting effective cost management alongside production growth [2]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analysis is provided by Aaron Chow, known as Elephant Analytics, who has over 15 years of analytical experience and is a top-rated analyst on TipRanks [2]. - Aaron Chow has a background in mobile gaming and has co-founded a company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment, showcasing a diverse skill set in both gaming and financial analysis [2].

Core Viewpoint - Permian Resources is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, supported by a strong history of exceeding expectations [1][6]. Earnings Performance - The company has a solid track record of surpassing earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 8.85% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the most recent quarter, Permian Resources reported earnings of $0.35 per share against an expectation of $0.32, resulting in a surprise of 9.38% [2]. - For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $0.36 per share, while the actual earnings were $0.39 per share, leading to a surprise of 8.33% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Estimates for Permian Resources have been trending upward, influenced by its history of earnings surprises [3]. - The stock currently has a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +2.96%, indicating increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [6]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat [6]. Statistical Insights - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better achieve a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [4]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [5]. Importance of Earnings ESP - The Earnings ESP metric is crucial for predicting earnings performance, as a negative value can diminish its predictive power, but does not necessarily indicate a miss [7]. - It is essential to check a company's Earnings ESP prior to its quarterly release to enhance the chances of successful investment decisions [8].

Group 1 - Laura Starks is the founder and CEO of Starks Energy Economics, LLC, established in 2007, with a background in chemical engineering and an MBA focused on finance [1] - The company specializes in analyzing various sectors within the energy industry, including utilities, independent power producers, energy service companies, petrochemical companies, and all segments of oil and natural gas: upstream, midstream, and downstream [1] - Starks has a beneficial long position in several energy companies, including PR, FANG, CTRA, DVN, COP, and CIVI, through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment positions held by the analyst in specific companies, indicating a long position in shares of XOM, EOG, and APA [1]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses personal opinions regarding the investment journey and does not receive compensation from the companies mentioned [2]. - The article emphasizes that the contents are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment or tax advice [2]. - The analyst clarifies that they are not a licensed investment or tax advisor, highlighting the importance of consulting professionals for investment decisions [2].